Member Info for GaiasKidney

Particularly as there was no change to the no of shares offered for the 30% of the Cibra Group cos (or getting less than 30%) despite a 1/4 reduction in those shares' value since the first Cibra announcement.

Another piece.

GK.

Case for MH deal just gets stronger.

Mood change firming. Time to add IMO.

GLA

GK.

One cannot know the answer to that Lost...I don't...........I hazard you don't.

But one can see the departures from the trend with great ease............and (if one so wishes) trade that, also with great (but not always as great :-/ ) ease.

And then afford 'beer o'clock'...and some if lucky!! :-).........Just need to know this share...and the 'herd' (who drive 99%? of the movement and next to no posts, (LTH 1%?, 99% of posts?))..who will inevitably return....well they always have so far! (from 2009 and on IPOF)...........and then trade again maybe.

Very little of all that sp and buy/sell action is relevant to the co (they are organising debt by far the largest proportion) or then on how this fine project develops - and magnificent to see it is.

And if indeed your analysis pans out as correct that the previous rise to 38p+ was just an irrational aberration then I feel I have to point out that surly you also have to conclude things are not then going to be boding particularly well for the 'buy and hold' LTH for some long, long time ahead by the looks. When does value 'out' then here? First paycheck from China/Brazil? Not my conclusion that. Not by some degree. I see success with St2 as a seminal 'de risk' and that passing to impact the valuation accordingly. 38p dust? Yes just maybe..... Not long to go on the timeline now.

Regardless, a trade or two can build up insurance against such possible gloomy outcomes. Bonus? It keeps one alert.

Hmmm..Might stay in tonight.

All The Best Lost.

GK.

Hi BMoody

Hmm..offloaded 2.5m at 25? A price where it had just fallen by more than 1/3rd from what the market saw Sirius as worth just prior to the 6th Sept build Capex 15 to 20% escalation?

IMV you've made an already risky investment even more high risk for yourself in doing that. Particularly around this time where at any moment news could drop that could almost instantly reverse the negative mood here and so send this promptly back to at or near those previous levels.

The only change of significance that came out of the 'Procurement and capital estimate update' was the lift in project Capex and so also a lift in the St2 requirement (a few weeks delay has also come in going past the new year). However the co stated with certainty that raising of senior debt would not go above the previous $3bn guidance. What seemed to scare off many weak holders was the then prospect that there may consequently be new issue to raise all or part of the extra 15 - 20%.....with a 40% crushing of the sp (to only ~10% below your cashing in price btw). Over reaction there? Only time will tell.

Maybe not if there is further negative news. But will there be? FWIW I expect positive.

Re politics. There is a lot of going on in the Westminster village, true, but out in the real world (which I expect includes most who are toiling away in this countries reasonably competent, though 'thorough', civil service) life goes on - it has to!

ATB.

GK.

Oh it's definitely time to buy ;-))

Afternoon All.

GK.

DGR:

". blame yourself if you don't."

That would soon empty out these forums!

Never 'appen. Th 'ere every day!

GK.

Strongly bid up today.

May be controversial to some but Thor may pan out to be MTR's best performing investment ahead.

We'll see.

RNS just.

GLA.

GK.

Some taking notice now.

No point in bothering about 5p warrants if there is not a real chance of them going into the money.

Long time coming, but yes, moving!

GLA.

GK.

Arrrghh. The horror!!

Far too early for that........and just no taste in (wrinkled) hats.......don't look too close!

Atb.

GK.

PS: ten bag > ten years = very good outcome. More is greedy.

Hi DH, welcome

I suspect for hydroponic growers solubility of polyhalite will be the issue as they only apply dissolved fert in solution to crops.

The Sirius model has never said anything on hydroponics to my knowledge, but, as with HP, they are principally targeting the high value sector.

The proportion of total ag veg production that is hydroponic is growing but remains pretty small, $6 to 8bn according to here in 2015:

http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2015/2015/hydro_agriculture.html

Whereas global total ag was around $1.9tr then:

http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/ess/documents/GDP/IND_NewsRelease_EN__27Apr2015_.pdf

Though very energy intensive it may well have a lager place in the future.

GK.

P8 and the 'P' word Myo?

GK.

It can be roughly estimated.

I guess from the valuation here that there is not much awareness as yet as to the potential of the Bonya licence and the already explored vanadium within. Then again there will be a fair amount to do to realise that potential.

From the 24 Sep '18 RNS, Billing:

"Jervois vanadium / titanium historical drilling programs have resulted in very high grade assays, and we plan to review this very exciting opportunity in the coming weeks. Global vanadium pricing has moved up aggressively over the past few weeks, with Argus Metals quoting the latest price for vanadium contained within ferro vanadium delivered Rotterdam at US$100,000/tonne at 20 September 2018."

China V2O5 currently at 27.5/lb. Chart;

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/

Drilling maps from the Jervois project of Arafura (previous licence holder):

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070619/pdf/3130nxq19wp71q.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100729/pdf/31rkpl7q8yfn81.pdf

The later map has the Casper Magnetic Prospect. Selected vanadium assays:

"UNRC018 49 metres @ 0.96% V O(5)
UNRC019 54 metres @ 0.72% V O(5)
UNRC024 50 metres @ 0.62% V O(5)"
18 holes total. Majority had strikes at less than 100m down.

A rough 'fag packet' gives ballpark ~$4.6bn of Va 'inground' value.

Parameters - very rough estimates

Drill area of drills assayed: ~500m x ~300m
Av intersect thickness: ~30m
Av grade V2O5: ~0.5%
Density V2O5: 3.4

Gives ~76kt of V2O5.

V2O5 price 10/18: $60k/t.

Remote but would be a low cost operation imo. A potential significant kicker to Molyhil.
-------------
That copied from ~month back.

V2O5 now ~$72k/t, $33/lb.

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/

GK.

In case anyone gets mislead, stretch targets are part of the Long term Incentive Plan and are about reaching first polyhalite and production volume by specific dates only

From pps 74

https://siriusminerals.com/downloads/annual-report-for-year-ended-31-march-2017/

GK.

RuS that is the funniest thing I have read all weekend!

What do you think happens to earning, debt repayment/reschedule - and hence the sp - if those targets are achieved?

Small, small coinage reward compared to the valuation uplift.

Do keep it up though M8.

GK.

M3

There is no proper spot market. but there are pricings reported:

Europe/Africa Sept '18: EUR437/tonne

https://africafertilizer.org/internationalprices/

Compass 'Plant nutrient' is SOP. Q3 '18 N America $658/ton, S America $656/ton:

https://investors.compassminerals.com/investors-relations/investor-news/press-release-details/2018/Compass-Minerals-Reports-Third-Quarter-2018-Results/default.aspx

Aus/Far East ~$500/tonne, re various nascent Aus SOP developers' estimates.

GK.

"Still, no one is willing to hazard a guess as to future SP? Anyone? "

Err Jimmy, just last week you said this;

"The fact is nobody can predict the share price... for all anybody knows it could drop to 7p... check the charts there are several periods when the sp nose dived. Anyone who pretends to know otherwise is a liar"

So the options are: would you like a little white lie: 'I know this is going to ten quid', or a full blown technicolor snorter: 'this is inevitably doomed and shareholders will be wiped out as... [fill in favored choice of myriad 'doom' scenarios]?

Or perhaps DYOR? Just a thought m8

DHAGW.

GK. Beeroclock.

Haha Myo...Steady of that group think!

"I guess in some way it's almost like an interview situation. "

Oh dear, oh dear!.......And dare I ask who are the [self appointed] interview panel?

In times of adversity it's all very well having the daily happy clappy to keep the spirits up from the likes of Alan etc but that does very little to challenge any aspect of your reasoning for investing in this...and imo constant challenge of that is far more valuable than 'tea and sympathy' in that it forces one to look in ever greater detail into what one has bought into.

I am glad to see the likes of CP here (and still here) - despite the obvious attempts from them to mislead (so much so I'm just buying more at these prices). It demonstrates that this forum has not yet descended into the bunker, as so many do. Spotted this observation this AM about an LSE forum on another share. I do hope this does not become the norm here:

"Re: LSE, Its why they are called sheep CB, they huddle together in a group and pat each other on the back to reassure. There is safety in numbers as any dissenter for what ever reason can be ridiculed and rubbished on mass and silenced, its the laws or the jungle forums these days."

ATB.

GK.

Hi KoH

I believe that previously the Port development was going to be outsourced to a third party then them paid through a charge on Opex. This from 17/3/16 DFS RNS:

"- The capital funding requirement is net of the estimated costs for mobile mining equipment and outsourced port and handling infrastructure. The Company's expectation is for these items to be funded by third parties and paid for through operating costs:

o All mobile mining equipment assumed to be leased (US$12m during the capital funding period);

o All port related infrastructure (including storage and general buildings as defined in the DFS) are assumed to be constructed under a build own operate arrangement (US$515m during the capital funding period based on the DFS estimated cost of greenfield facilities); and

o An aggregate operating charge of US$7.7/t has been included in the operating cost estimates (at 10Mtpa) to account for the cost of mining equipment and greenfield outsourced infrastructure. Should existing infrastructure be utilised then the level of charge related to the port aspects of the Project would be expected to be lower."

Did that then fall away? I note Opex is now lower.

GK.

WLFESlide10 Aug '18
Sadly my losses are even greater but an investment in Sirius Minerals at the same time has more than compensated.

Sorry to hear of your loss M1boy.

GK.

"let them all walk into the killing zone before we open fire eh?"

Rather bloodthirsty metaphor there Myo...;-)

Thing is you only need a noisy bird scarer to get the poorly researched weak hands to flee. The smarter already know the co are lining up a far more effective gatling in response................just moving into position behind the barn doors.

St2:

nothing gets announced until the total package is all finally priced up and then agreed, this on the day of the receipt of the final commitment letters - Jan.... [barn doors swing open, sudden silence] and;

followed by a period of reflection then quickly with financial close in Q1. Which in any logic would also be the timing date of any placing, with a price based on the sp then, not as was earlier [gatling gun sites up on any targets....if there are any dumb enough to still be around].

Hopefully bloodless.

Cash mountain pours in, mine gets built.

GK.