Member Info for GaiasKidney

Hi Myo

"existing" = present capital providers = us (the share capital) + CB holders + royalty cash providers.
"new" = future capital providers = St2 debt providers (senior debt) + contingency balance providers excluding that that comes from any new issue (balance on that not known).

AIUI

GK.

6% up on the touch at 20p and in very short order. Interesting.

A back way via the library into the department store before they open for the sale? :-)

GK.

"..leaves 1.15bn new share available.."

To be clear if it pans out as I hope I would expect a raising of $110m via a placing to result in the issuing of around 250m new shares. ~5% dilution.

But who knows?

GK.

Revisiting the new issue 'issue' in more detail.

Res 15, 2018 AGM:

"(i) up to a maximum aggregate nominal amount of £3,726,185". These are nominal 0.25p shares, so equates to 1.49bn shares.
"(ii) comprising equity securities ..up
to a maximum aggregate nominal amount of £7,452,370" Double amount if they go as a rights issue. Authority expires at next AGM.

Committed allocations/already allocated. From '17AR, thousands of shares:

"Convertible loans 1,009,103
Hancock US$50 million equity derivative 200,077
Employee share options 40,377
Employee senior awards 10,790"

The CBs seem unlikely to be converted prior to closure of St2, so takes 1009m off leaving 251m that may be issued. Add in 90m to Cibra issued. 341m accounted for.

If none of any new issue is as a rights issue that leaves 1.15bn new share available to be issued as a possible placing maximum before there would be any possibility arising for the co to then have to have a special resolution in a EGM. Also huge room above that if a rights issue comes into the picture. Fmu.

GK.

Hi Foster

The 'authority to allot' was 2.98bn I believe - last AGM.

GK.

Fine day out walking the Kinder Scout - Hayfield circular. Great to think and chat.

Relisten - careful relisten - of Fraser (6/9) and Staley (27/9) this AM. Of particular note: Fraser on slide 28 (~26m in) and Staley at pres end and answering the first Q. You get the idea as to the plan on how this pans out over the next (only now a) few weeks.

Predicting will always be a hostage to fortune and I dare say soon lost in the wind (from bags! ;-) ), but a stab:

total Stage two raise: $3.45bn +- 2%
senior debt: $3bn, as target
commercial tranche: $1.7bn +- 5%
IPA guarantee of senior debt securities offering: $1.3bn +-5%
additional capital: 0.45bn +-13%
of which new share issue $0.11bn +-20%

Announcing of St2 package covering receipt of all commitment letters, value of commercial tranche, extent of IPA cover, final figure for additional capital, proportions and sources of that. All to come week 2/3 '19 near coincident with Q4 '18 progress report.

Prospectus out early Feb for new issue offering with dates for bookbuild of buyers, showing a price range based on sp over period post the St2 package having been announced. Actual price range announced mid/late Feb, close of that end Feb. Full close and all St2 and cash and drawdown contracts delivered to co start March.

Well that's the way I would try and get it to pan out......probably best leave it to those who are experienced at this though!

GLA.

GK.

PS: best thing about this time of year; the astonishing bargains you get during the January sales. doors open soon.

Hmm.

GK.

"opaque nature of the St2"

Secrets, secrets SL. It's an outrage!!! Hourly update instead? ;-)

The agony of it all....and for another month maybe.

Cool it or blow?

Song for you (you not me) while we wait:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMaE6toi4mk

;-))

GK.

Hmm...Yes. How to get say $200m up front then as that part bit?

Say $400m price discount on first 8mt delivered? Maybe higher.

Takes $50 off the est $145 price. That still leaves cash to pay back creditors - but maybe not as fast...........Or maybe fabled (and much craved for) divis get delayed. Tears all round. Hard life!

Omelette, eggs etc.

GK.

Morning Rekrab

Yes I have been surprised on how low this has gone (ever optimist!) and even though I was starting to buy again at going down past 28, with little dabbles, it has certainly not stopped me putting large amounts in once this got to sub 23. Buying av at 22.7 over last two months and now trebled up. Stop there.

It may of course pan out to be a fantastically huge mistake as you cannot fully discount that St2 may hit holders negatively. Regardless I have high confidence that the 3bn senior component will be agreed and that the rest will involve something more value creating than it would if it were just straight new issue.

Re poor old Chesh. Don't be fooled, he is far smarter than he (goes to much effort to) make out he is. Let's just say ...ummm...a bit ...socially inept? ;-) I put down to something in that suspect Scunny water he drinks.

GK.

Indeed Myo

ADM: "ADM will become the sole distributor in North america..." Zip on that in any of the Sirius ADM RNSs.

A deal on upfront cash? That the price of supposed deal?..........Jan and becomes clear.

GK.

OK Recrab, sorry. I will be serious.

Fred's not about - valuable and sound as she is. So my considered opinion for you to take on or ignore at your discretion.

It would only be greedy to invest more if it is money that a) you will need in the nearterm for other things or b) the resultant size of the investment then compels you to watch it continuously at the expense of other commitments you know you have. Neither are healthy imo.

Regardless, non of that has relevance to the merit of this share and as to whether the present pricing is or is not a good opportunity.For that we all have to DOOR. I also think your concluding that:

"The question is (each to their own) does a low SP mean failure? Well yes , to me it does......"

is just not the way to make any such judgement on this co or its project. Aisi the SP is the balance of what the market presently thinks this is worth combined with what they think it could be worth ahead and also with comparing that to what other things out there are worth. Most in this market have little loyalty towards or knowledge in what they invest in from my experience. So it's a rare day I conclude they know more than the well researched - who we can all find if we so wish.

Good luck with your decision.

GK.

Ha rekrab. Life does throw up these onerous choices. Is £500k not enough then?!!! :-)

Always keep some back.

ATB.

GK.

Indeed that could well be a skip Myo. That pic from 14/12. The most recent pic before dated 7/12;

https://twitter.com/siriusminerals

How deep then? Hmm..35 -40m? Minus 45m is the target I think. Cannot be long if not already there!

Cannot help but be impressed.
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A general comment;

From the 'infamous' 6/9 RNS it is stated:

"The greatest driver of value for the Company is successful Project delivery."

Though there have been delaying/costly trips and stumbles along the way, it is nonetheless.crystal clear that this is what your BoD believe and are solely working toward, I guess if holders are wanting something else than that they have choices. I don't recall any of this BoD saying it would be quick or easy. But they have also never said that completing and running this mine is not achievable, to my knowledge.

GK.

to base level it seems and kit now being lowered in via the 'whopper' crane:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BrX1LhtgiDy/

If i get this pic correctly/

GK.

Hi Cherokee

Re your 20 years of Footsie, FTSE Mining index is around double on sp cap appreciation on that period.

Informative dissertation of the mining cycle here.

http://www.rfcambrian.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Mining_Cycle_Discussion_Presentation_May_2017.pdf

Bit dated - early '17 and pre Trump's magnificent efforts at destroying world trade - but nonetheless though the cycle has blipped down/stalled of late, it looks to resume.

Some reading while we wait.

On that re the St2 endgame timing. You do get that though the choreography remains intact the dates have changed?

Staley stated in Sept that a full package announcement to the market only comes once all commitment letters are in, there is no expectation of anything significant being stated before that event occurs. In Sept he expected (not stated) that that would happen by year end. That changed as the final signing with Strabag was later than anticipated. 12/11 RNS.

Slippage of a few weeks in a complex, multifactorial merry dance with many players. Not a BoD defenestration capitulation on St2.

So, no Staley did not say:

"TS has said in black or white he will be talking to the market before year end. If he doesn't we have a......."

He said he will update the market once and only once, all the letters are in.

So you of course are perfectly within your ".... right to get stressed and concerned."

But perhaps a bit more careful reading may help with that?

ATB.

GK.

With that level of investment you really should be sooooo on the ball. RNS 12/11 - the most up-to-date on St2 financing:

" Given the timing of completion of the final procurement contracts, final lender commitment letters are expected to be received in December 2018 and January 2019. "

'and' not maybe. I think that is perfectly clear dear chap.

GK.

Morning Mitch/Myo

I was waiting Myo and hoping you hadn't just found that on a website as a curiosity..............and distraction!! Welcome though it is :-)

Best effort explanation Mitch:

You would think that if you were on the Greenwich meridian and it was midday (GMT now, BST in summer) the sun would be due south and at its highest for the day at that time. Not so. It varies around that by up to +/- some 20 min each side of midday over the year. Known as the Equation of Time.

So also consequently the time of sunrise and sunset will not be at equal time periods away from 12 o'clock. But also (to get to the Q) as the variation changes it impacts the date of latest sunrise and earliest sunset. As Myo notes, they are not at the solstice

Two factors account for the variation: that the Earth's orbit is an ellipse and the tilt of the Earth's axis. The variation is rapidly changing at present predominantly because of the ellipticity of the earth's orbit. Perihelion - the nearest point the Earth is to the Sun - is on/near Jan 4th each year. With that the Earth is presently moving faster around the sun than average (Kepler's second law) and so is moving toward being 'ahead of the curve'. This makes solar midday move towards being late compared to GMT and so drags with it time of sunrise and sunset. However eventually rapidly increasing day length overrides this and morning get more bearable!
========================
So ahead in the early days of Jan we're getting: mornings getting brighter, Commitment letters all in (see recent RNS and pres), the compleat St2 financing package then announced - as Staley has specifically stated RuS..but nice effort! - and the uncertainty disappears and, yes, market....... blubbering stops.

Even with significant consequent new issue, the sp will power - fully financed mine, 'game' changed.

GK.......In my opinion.

Morning

"Do you think that we will have ST2 'design' announced by Xmas?"

No ticking either way from me as afaict it's a question that is already previously answered...well, the guidance has been given by Staley as to when they will come to the market (ie RNS something) in the A to Blair's Q (Liberum) in the progress wcast. From 19-15 in. Quite specific that the market will be updated once all (in Jan '19) the CLs are in. Plus this occurrence is being flagged as coincident with the point they also have the full financing package definitely priced and so therefore also announced.

If this is what you mean by 'design' Milo?

Doesn't preclude other bits and bobs on it something or other being announced beforehand though, but fmu not the biggie.

ATB

GK.

https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/EventLobbyServlet?target=lobby.jsp&eventid=1844387&sessionid=1&key=285877D896383D5280A09E5778AAF892&eventuserid=215478694

Strong here.

Ponds building, Williamson pump out next.

Dyor.

GK