Member Info for GaiasKidney

You are definitely the 'Tigger' around here Myo!!! ;-)

GK. Onward.

No. Only seen the one 2m buy. May see two by midnight though!

And many similar next week? Haha, we'll see.

Hagw.

GK.

a 2m buy I saw just 7m before the bell?

GK.

before the St2 package is announced I reckon...........and the tension is palpable.

Ok, try and lighten the mood a bit for those not at ease. A little (and of course essentially meaningless before we know) competition on who gets closest with the amount of St2 monies that gets raised from new issued of shares going into the St2 financial close.

To get it off I will go for $110m...........and that as a pure placing to IIs.

The rest of the incremental...? Other means! Price of new issue? Dull subject now.

Not long to get a bid in I expect.

GLA.

GK.

"IMO it almost certainly clears the first ST2 question ie "will the Gov. offer support?","

Question? Who's question? I think if there had been any genuine and significant market doubt on that then there would have a far far higher rise in the last hour or so than there just has been.

"Up to US$2bn UK government guaranteed bond tranche"

That's been on offer since at least last May.

GK.

'Ere Myo

Let's hope Phil boy signs the IPA off before he becomes a backbencher eh? An opposition backbencher???? ;-))

GK.

Hi LS.

I wouldn't be wanting Sirius to be relying on China for investment capital for WS. They are far more interested in looking after their own domestically anyhow. Particularly wrt the domestic non chloride potash market:

https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/cru-surprise-abolition-of-china-s-potash-export-tariff-set-to-impact-the-global-potassium-sulphate-market-815156569.html

One more bit of pressure :-/

GK.

Sheff good to hear from you and to know you are still about................And thanks for that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Very interesting.

GK.

Hi Ffc

I broadly concur with Myo in that fmu for the banks to commit $1.5bn, or indeed maybe more, all the St2 package covering all the remaining requirement (total inc the $1.5bn = $3.4 to 3.6bn) has to have been sourced - ie they have the funding offered or they can demonstrate it is freely available from the market.

It has previously been stated that up to $2bn of guaranteeing of senior debt is available from the IPA, but it is also stated by the co that total senior debt will not exceed $3bn. From that one can assume all the sources of senior debt to cover $3bn are known by the banks. The sources of the balance of $400 to 600m is what the banks say they have to have before they deliver the CLs.

Once the co receive all these CLs Staley has stated they will then advise the market that they have the full St2 need in place. If part of the non senior debt tranche involves new issue of shares, aisi the co then have until the end of this Q to raise that cash need from that new issue to keep within their stated timeline to complete St2 by then.

As an aside I note two good RNSs from SML of late (I hold and have been adding of late) demonstrating higher earnings from operations and also higher certainty with future earning. This has put a philip under their sp. Not the only share where I've noticed such of late. In this difficult investing environment I think the market is now giving far more credit to earning cos and those who are demonstrating routes to more secure future earning, than they are to cos that are more speculative. Creating certainty offerers a good premium.

I mention this as I also think this is what may happen to Sirius with the resolution of St2. That will become apparent once Staley makes his announcement. Perhaps here as well the uplift maybe be even more than would normally occur as the market desperately seeks bets that offer higher levels of certainty in these times?

If there is to be new issue I'm thinking some may be surprised at the price it goes at.............or maybe that is just too optimistic?

We'll see.

ATB.

GK.

Risk.

St2 secured - with the expected $3bn of senior debt contained - reduces the risk with getting this built becoming far more likely. It changes the risk for shareholders from the risk of the mine not being built then being greatly reduced, to the risk of the mine being taken from shareholders then being greatly increased.

Risks only fully reduce once this is paying out earnings that cover debt and if we are lucky, divis.

And I wouldn't have trusted that Albanial god botherer with my wallet!

GK.

Afternoon Mr DT.

Slow getting back to you, the cursed ague forced me to retire early up t' wooden hill.

Yes indeed, 3m added on the closure date target and an 'as promised' cash resources called in....with some sacrifice. The 'grand scheme of things'........! Yes. Important to hold on to that in our minds I think. What I see as super-critical about any delays is whether they impact the progress on the construction. Thankfully not so far. If that does occur then it would be proper serious imv.

From the getgo with the long, long to fruition (Sirius' involvement moving into year 9 now), York Potash project, there has only been one very serious delay. In hindsight there was a lot of over promising going on before then. That being the first attempt with the NPA...: failed. It soon became apparent the project delay from that was going to be around 2y+. For the share price that realisation was, without exaggeration, catastrophic......circa 80% was taken off in some 3m. Repeated low ball dilutions followed to keep the project alive and be able to progress. The upside from that was (in effect) 'start again', in the end it was that a better project was created. Somewhat more expensive as well though.

For where we are now with this I will only get seriously depressed if this completing of the full project financing becomes so delayed that in then impacts the time critical aspects* of the build schedule. So impacting those crucial future target milestones, re: First Poly, Production ramp up, eventual payback, etc.

IMO such an outcome would then justify the recent halving of the sp...and maybe some more, but I don't think what has transpired with the St2 process to date does so. With the construction program as-is they are presently financed to this end Q2 I believe.

* Only speculation on my part, but it may be that there is already some prudent 'putting on hold' for some aspects of the construction. Then again it may be that there never was the intention there to start sinking just because the kit is in place. I'm thinking there of the MTS shaft for the SBR drive toward Teesside. Start of that not yet near 'time critical' FMU.

Whereas IMV the main shafts are so, particularly the Production Shaft is so............they need to crack on there. However 'Phase 8' looks to be in action. It will be impressive seeing that 500 tonner going up on site!

ATB.

GK.

Out of date that target. Revised some 2 month back. It's nothing new Paaa.

12 Nov Strabag final sign off - 2 month back now. That was later than hoped for, from that the RNS says final CLs expected Jan. Co have said there will be no announcing on anything wrt St2 until all CLs are in..........And also - the 'biggie' - that the whole St2 financing still compleats this Q1....Which target has not changed since the 6/9/18 'refining' (haha, hollow) of St2.

Now if it is not all agreed and signed off by this end Q. I will indeed become... miffed.........but not until. :-/

ATB.

GK.

I'm not aware of anything demonstrating delay from what the co have stated re announcements wrt St2. Am I missing something?

GK.

No update? Outrage!!!!!!!! :-)

Personally I can't wait for the daily agony that is going to ensue as the shaft sink gets nearer and nearer to the much fabled 'FP' strike depth. I'm sure there will be strident demands for hourly reports on how far down (to the centimeter) DMC are with the Herrenknecht. We may even get a daily report!

The tricky bit of these sinks will be them successfully getting through that crotchety Sherwood high pressure saline aquifer and also the 'notorious 'rotten (carnallitic) marl' below (ask Clarky, he will look even more dower), then it's just plain sailing!?

SM11 log p14

http://planning.northyorkmoors.org.uk/northgate/documentexplorer/application/stream.aspx?target=http%3A%2F%2Flocalhost%2FNorthgate%2FDocumentExplorer%2FDocumentStream%2FDocumentStream.aspx%3Fname%3Dpublic%2BNYM-2013-0835-FL%2BHydrological%2BRisk%2BAssessment.pdf%26unique%3D810327%26type%3DNLP11GL1_DC_PLANAPP

to compare against.

GK.

Not a delay, not an error.

'Mining' is what the 'Owner' (Sirius) will be doing. At present from the schedule the Principal Contractors (DMC, Strabag) look to hand the project back to Sirius during H2 '23, with the completion of the shafts and MTS fit outs.

Only then will Sirius commence mining - and hopefully achieve a rapid ramp up to the initial 10mt/y target volume.

Earlier extracting of ore - from the date of 'First Polyhalite' - will be done by the contractor. Shaft cut through and pit bottom development will result in some 150 to 200kt of salable polyhalite, from memory. The NPA have allowed them a 'short' 8 months to road transport that to Wilton.

AFMU.

GK.

"Only mistake they said they would start mining 2024 at end of broadcast"

No mistake there Sea.....Though Project Schedule could allow a bit earlier.

That timeline has completion of shafts fit out as Q4 '23.

Perhaps some confuse the expected dates for 'first polyhalite' with that for 'production', that would be a...........mistake!!

ATB.

GK. It's a big job.

I doubt significant II will be position taking here until the co archive first poly.

Many an excitement before though I expect.

GK.

Hi S Man/Paaa

With the MTS quite a few factors suggest it will not become a time critical delay component that displaces the main shaft sinking (I concur with Paaa). There will be 3 tbm drives covering the 36.7km from mine to the MHF (Wilton). From progress at present it looks as though the first Wilton drive with the already procured tbm will start this spring. With the other 2 looking to go from next winter, all being well.

The timeline (p16) has completion of fit out for the shafts at Q3/Q4 '23, so with fit out of the MTS taking some 12 months, meaning that if they get the tunnels complete by Q3/Q4 '22 that aspect will not cause delay. They schedule around 33m for drives 2 & 3 - next winter start. Each are about 12km long, From that the av rate would need to be above 12 metres per day to avoid delay. Achievable.

I also concur with Paaa on the main shaft sinks being a far higher risk aspect for this project than the tunneling is, but will go further. It is not just more technically difficult - fmu - but also, unlike the much thrashed over Strabag final and upped bill, that the contract Sirius have with DMC does not allocate risk onto the contractor - nor can that happen. No sinkers in the potash space will accept that, particularly after Eurochem took down Shaft Sinkers a few years back. So why higher risk? The structure of the project financing.

Aisi St2 senior debt lenders have had to accept from the get go that they cannot transfer the DMC risk onto that contractor - they have done one sink only with the Herrenknecht SBR at Jansen, it got delayed by ~2y, there is significant risk - I think they are not inclined to have more, hence the Sept transference of contract risk onto Strabag for the tunnels.

I also think Sirius are sensibly very adverse to allowing more than $3bn of senior debt (a policy I completely agree with) as this would further expose them to losing this project to the senior lenders if there was any serious time/cost delay on the sinks as DMC could then just do the 'gallic shrug' as other sinkers look on, Sirius shareholders would be stuffed..........DrQu welcome and thank you for your input. Something perhaps not being grasped here by a few if one applies the 'careful what you wish for' school of analysis. This observation previously flagged a 'few' times by me since the DMC deal was signed.

But it's now also something we have to live with.

From all that I also think no one will be getting the much coveted £1 party before 'First Polyhalite', though a decent lift with completion of (the massive) St2 derisk looks on the cards............With applying my view on the level of associated new issue.

See what transpires.

https://siriusminerals.com/downloads/shaft-sinking-factsheet/

https://siriusminerals.com/downloads/mts-factsheet/

GK.

Respect? :-) Ha....thank you...That club, a club of one then!!!

I trade btw....did I say?.....................Membership promptly goes back down to zero.

ATB.

GK.

Afternoon Seagulls.

I'm getting worried that if you keep going on like this you are going to end up in a psychiatrist's chair or in rehab!

All that you are saying today 'screams' of over exposure and someone who is well outside their comfort zone...........as did your:

'SXXThe love affair6 Jul '18' post:

"Having shares in SM .... feels a bit like dating a gorgeous bird, who is out of your league. ..."

Get a grip!! NEVER think like that about any investment...............or it will destroy you. My opinion.

However you are of course right about the risks ahead....I could give you 100 others that you have not mentioned that will guarantee permanent insomnia.... if you wish. But non of that make JR wrong. This could be a $30-50bn co.......eventually - the BoD's 'love affair', they don't 'love' their PI base........but they do need them.

Should I suggest: adjust the risk exposure to get back to where you are comfortable........but not now.

ATB.

GK.