Member Info for GaiasKidney

and many of them - 3.3:1. Yet the sp holds around the 20p 'capping' level - as seen a week or so back.

So one can conclude that if the sp refuses to fall, those large sell vols are being steadily taken up.......but not appearing.

Also last Fri and more so today vol is up - these are usually quieter days.

This week?............If I keep calling it I'll be right in the end! :-).................However there is still a good 2-3 months to play with before there can be any real worsening (cost up then can also add schedule up) beyond the 6/9 Capex uplift.

Dawn follows darkest hour etc.

GK.

"The 225-metre-long machine............"

Not in that hold there isn't!

Chesh get your fancy hat and braids back out of the hire shop!.............you have skippering.

GK.

For Whitby folk who care to take the evening air with a promenade to the end of the West Pier have a look out to the North and see a mile or so out a new future that, with no exageration, is coming:

https://www.hobotomphotography.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/YA1A8907.jpg

The little Eems is delivering!

Great to watch this boat coming in..........and not long now.

GK.

and outlier UT.

Dare we wish???

GK.

Hi Thorpe. welcome.

I suspect there would not be any 'hostile' 'saving', ie defacto takeover before Sirius have tried and then (if it turns out that way) failed to secure Stage 2 money.

They are trying to do something almost unprecedented as a new, one project, no income miner creating a multi tens of billions mine, costing some 4x what they are presently valued at.

If they do so many pundits out there will be stunned, I have no doubt................And the sp will react accordingly.

If you have the nuts for this, be patient.

GL.

GK.

Note the mix during early years at the MHF. 6/9/18 rns:

"The plant has been scoped to include 7 million tonnes per annum ("Mtpa") of granulated and 3 Mtpa of coarse product in its first phase of development but with a footprint for up to 20 Mtpa of granulated product."

3mt/y to manufacturers?

GK

Ha Myo. Sensory aids.

Now that reminds me, must get the listening trumpet out and just nip over the corridor to the door of the AA meeting and have a little listen.............and.....................yes, apparently the money coming from the commercial bank lenders is now to be conditional on milestones like the ones mooted for the IPA - that's new!!............And also there will be no Stage 2 at all because the possibility exists that there could be a time/cash overrun with some part or other of the construction.

It's an interesting logic some are trying to hawk. Perhaps these hard nosed bankers will just run because of it?

Or maybe not!

GK.

Hi Lost

This thread title just keeps on going - let's hope the title wording is neutral enough so as not to attract...... ""THE IRE OF MYO!!!!!!!!""............ ;-))

Re the two criteria, aisi they can only be judged/quantified at the future date when the drawdown occurs. from that you are right in that only rules within a structure for tranche 3 can be given at this time and indeed it is obvious Treasury opinion should have no say on them. How tranche 3 is made up has to wait until the day, that it can be sourced and that Sirius can evidence that to the commercial bank lenders now is the work in hand to deliver CLs from them.

FMU.

GK.

Hi Slurms.

There still looks to be a fair amount of flexibility within the St2 plan, in particular with the options for the 3rd tranche. In the 'cast Fraser offers:

".. with access to the capital markets construction risk essentially done and revenue starting from early polyhalite sales, it's quite likely that you'll actually, as a company, go to the capital markets rather than actually issuing any guaranteed bonds, actually just continue in that high-yield market and issue more tranches of those bonds in the future. But that creates the optionality for us. So if the liquidity requirement is there, then obviously the IPA guarantee, the assets in the structure will be called upon. Otherwise, we'd be looking to use the capital markets as our way forward."

So it comes back to secured or covered. If at that point Sirius go for further secured borrowing (not the IPA) then the lenders they approach will do their due dily on all the aspects they can on how much security there is to be had within the project at that time, but also make a judgement on how the level of security that could be available may progress as the project continues to move forward. Myriad factors will come into play with that. Once the potential lenders have done their sums they will offer a rate for debt or instead choose to sit it out and make no bid.

If Sirius cannot generate enough interest from these lenders to cover the requirement at the point where they need tranche 3 because the lenders deem the level of security is inadequate at that time, then Sirius will have to go and get covered lending instead by bringing in the IPA guarantee. It may also pan out as a mix and match.

I doubt these options on tranche 3 will have to be finalised to secure the hoped for imminent CLs provided there is an intention provided by the IPA that there will be cover available for any shortfall on tranche 3. Not forgetting the IPA's milestone conditions re the project's progress.

If neither security seeking lenders nor the IPA are willing to be involved when the tranche 3 funding is being sought then their will be trouble!

First things first eh?

GK.

So Dinger you are saying you had an investment here that last summer was showing a £500k plus gain, yet you took no profit?

Odd.

GK

62k profit, 10% gain? That was a very large amount to place on such a high risk share for such a long time!

If that's what you did Dinger?

GK.

And of course not just pari passu but also ALL of the formation of Stage Two is to be agreed with the issuing of the Commitment Letters. How then can any 'differentiail' 'securing' favouring one so and so but not another then be arranged on assets that have not yet been created? It cannot.

Piffle from the Man. The Ball happily rolls on!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GK. salut......got a shift to do.

"First, as work progresses SXX will have some "secured"debt and some unsecured debt. "

That all the $3bn is to be pari passu - of equal footing - immediately contradicts that. Sorry Casa I consequently did not read beyond that.

GK.

Afternoon.

In the context of the financing structure Sirius are trying to put together, aisi 'secured' and 'covered' are not the same.

'Secured lending' means the borrower - Sirius - has something to offer as security (assets) to the lender should the borrower default on the payments back to the lender. The lender can then petition for insolvency and have administrators liquidate any assets and then have the debt in part or fully repaid.

For this Stage 2 raise the $3bn 'senior' part (not the 'additional capital' of $400 to 600m) will have all its 3 tranches equally secured against the value of what Sirius have - pari passu - So in the event of insolvency all lenders of all 3 tranches will have equal rights over remaining assets and I would expect that would be in proportion to what they had lent.

Obviously the realisable value of the assets will vary with how far the build has progressed etc. So how much the lenders are secured will vary in time and on build progress from a level of around from little to nothing at present to I would expect a level of being fully secured and more by the time of full production.

'Covered lending' is again about offering a way to reduce risk to lenders, but instead involves the enjoining of a third party to cover payments due to lenders should the borrower default. In this case for Sirius they are working with the IPA to offer this. But now only for the 3rd tranche. The 1st trance will be uncovered....but still secured. FMU the option of covering can only apply to bond elements (tranche 1 & 3) of St2. The 2nd tranche, from the commercial bank lenders will be uncovered....but secured.

Just thinking out loud.

GK.

WW

Yep, that's about my take on what Fraser is endeavouring to construct. Starting gun is the delivery of the CLs.........And we are off to the races.

ATB.

GK.

WW

"Can any one confirm that the "ranked senior secure pari passu" of a high yield bond would generally remove such option?

It does not. Example:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/945617/000108638005000006/nawlq123104exh1033.htm

It is apparent though that Fraser has no intention that Phase 1 will be anything other than strait debt. from the transcript (should have dug that out much earlier!):

" ..The first change in that, we have talked about going to the bond markets before with the high-yield bonds.

We think that is beneficial to the whole structure and the whole credit anyway to do that first, to essentially open up that debt capital market to Sirius Minerals and get us to be known as an issuer. That improves our access to capital and improves the opportunity of refinancing during that period of time."

The idle (or is that indolent? Self indulgent?) speculation that convertibles could achieve what Fraser states he wants above, re the first phase of issuing high yield bonds into the bond market, is is ill conceived......... As it is not so it cannot.

Simple stuff.

ATB.

GK.

In fact all the pres is there if you go for 'single page view'.

GK.

From Fraser - the messenger. Excerpt:

"...What this new structure works is on the basis of essentially one follows the other follows the other.

So we'll be, obviously, bringing the additional capital that we've discussed previously, the $400 million to $600 million into the project. That will be spent first. Then the bond finance funds will be spent, then the bank tranche will start to be drawn. And then once that is finished and we've reached certain key construction milestones, that's when the IPA-guaranteed tranche, should it be in the structure, will be used.

The reason why we've done this is really to reduce the risk and reduce the quantum to the IPA or to the U.K. taxpayer, and it's an obligation that we have and also the IPA have to really reduce and minimize that risk. The IPA is there to provide liquidity when liquidity is not there in the market. And we're working on the basis we absolutely do need that liquidity to come in, but we need to work with them to shape that into the right risk-and-reward dynamics for the U.K. taxpayer.

And this structure, we believe, achieves that. And we'll be working forward over the coming months with that lending group, including the IPA, to finalize the terms of that and put that in place through various commitments in the coming period of time. The first change in that, we have talked about going to the bond markets before with the high-yield bonds...."

Transcript covers the part withing the pres that is on St2 financing:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4234802-sirius-minerals-sruxf-ceo-chris-fraser-q4-progress-update-conference-call-transcript

Very foolish to shoot valuable messengers I would contend.............Story tellers and court jesters however? Entertaining,...but two a penny.

GK

Scotty

Don't expect too much mate. We should be grateful for a 'listening'...... a mere two after the fact. Call that level 1. Comprehension - level 2 - may take far longer. ;-))))

Void as usual will be filled with spin and flip flop.

Dat's life!!

GK.

Hi Golfer.

Where to start? The sites are getting more packed with kit by the day!

The fig comes from the DFS. Important that the up to date fig is as well quantified as possible when you are finalising a 3 1/2bn raise. Too little? No. Too much? No.

GK.