Member Info for GaiasKidney

LL 'smiling sweetly'

Cripes, where's the garlick?

GK. ;-))

Evening Seagulls.

Sorry about delay in getting back, secretary duties, shareholders, AGMs. bit busy.

OK, your Q (note for pedant police: thoughts = opinions, facts should be referenced if a 'fact' presenter should deserve to be taken seriously - that's an opinion btw):

"where do you reckon the share price will be in early May 2019 assuming some form of St2 funding
is secured between now and the end of April?"

Provided the money secured to keep the build going is not some half baked effort that allows 'someone' to remain sitting on 'someone else's' head, but instead comes in as advised, ie an St2 that covers all the envisaged Capex need to complete the build, est at $3.4 to 3.6bn and that also as advised $3bn of that is senior secured debt, then I anticipate the co valuation going from a present £1.1bn to somewhere in a range from £1.8bn to $3bn.

For the sp there could be even more variation, as I now anticipate a significant amount of prompt new issue from this 'International financial Institution' and that they will want and get their 'pound of flesh'. But it may well be that Sirius do have a partner in the wings and may be able to bring out a structure that offers far less immediate issuance.

If you want a range I would be unsurprised by anything all the way from 25 to 60p.

With 'early May 2019' I would suggest that if there is significant new issue it may take a while longer for market value to fully catch up with risked present project value if there is a lot of freshly doled out issue to be stagged. PIs will have to buy those shares, as usual IIs will not be. Note the pattern post Nov '16.

I have a six month view on how St2 pans out.

ATB.

GK.

Of course it's negative. You don't even need to bother to read it to know it is going to be negative. They are touting for business having just had a huge close out last week.....and probably have to try and balance out a lot of 'longs' that have just been placed.

Wonder if they are having to chase up a lot of defaulters? It was a very fast rise!

GK.

Hi Milo.

You really should read the RNS of 14/9/18. I'll quote you the important few words for you:

"The Royalty is secured over the assets of the Project..."

That's it. Please grasp what it means. I would also urge you to take a bit of time on what was stated in the prospectus regarding what has been entered into between the co and Hancock, p217 in particular.

That in certain circumstances if it became apparent Sirius were not finding it possible to raise the St2 capital then Hancock can take control of the asset. Hancock own strips of land surrounding the sites of the mine, and MHF.

If you have a different interpretation where you can validly point to where that circumstance cannot occur as a consequence of what has been signed up to in that deal I would love you to outline it.

With less slavering hyperbole would also be nice.

Thank you.

GK.

"..without her money we may not have got this far."

So true FFC.

And the consequence presently of Fraser's deal with La Rinehart is a source of severe pain. In all logic a project like this and at this stage of construction with accounting for remaining risk should have a market value showing a discount to project NPV of around 50% if finance were in place, yet because of the damoclean sword over this of the potential of St2 failure and that with that Gina can take the asset and just lock the gates - the only asset of value Sirius have, the valuation today festers at just 10% of that risk free value.

With St2 success a great weight is lifted.......and Milo's upside applies....in short order... but at present it's all a bit (binary) rough holding.

Should be over soon.

ATB.

GK.

Afternoon Milo

Presently hold in 7 figures fyi.

Please provide wheat not chaff.

Clue 2: She is an Ausie queen bitch and did not get rich from being nice to PIs.

All In my opinion and E&OE. :-))

Morning Milo

I was pretty much with you until;

" we put the asset at auction - someone WILL pay GBP 1 Bil for it, right? this means we get our current 20 p / share,"

You have missed something so, so crucial. Re 'we'? No.

Keep at it, clue: 2w after the kicker rns.

GK.

Hi Vyrnyw

Nice location, bit cold for a dip this time of year!! Welcome to the pile of chaff - there are some wheat grains.

"new proposal being worked on is a capital markets led structure .... rather than bank-led project finance"..."In my opinion, he believes this option lends to greater flexibility without significant time constraint of a bank-led change process"

An important steer and suggests to me it's bonds for the $3bn if not from (or more like 'via' as I expect syndicating out). That would mean the likes of JPM or similar non bank style financing (though still a bank as the 'go between').

With that and unless Sirius do also actually have a real partner lined up, the Additional Finance looks far more likely to be mostly/in large part sourced as new issue. However maybe not all immediate as they may go for a similar solution as per St1 - shares + convertibles. St1 raised some GBP700m via those routes, this time the AF need is considerably less.

I would think the 'hit' post St2 would be short lived and seeing an uninterrupted and motoring build would soon enough bring back the value hunters in swarms.

Still got a build to complete though. Between post St2 and then heavy overrun it yet another risk of LTH wipe out*...........All for another day though that one, circa 4y until proper earnings materialise, min. Also one pound sp before 'first poly'** is comfort blanket fantasy.

ATB.

GK.

*Only a secure stream of production earnings clearing away the $3bn senior can close out that risk.
** First poly some 2y before proper earnings, applies to approx 70kt of polyhalite. Point for IIs to buy?...Should be!

These are worth analysing together.

Dan - historic perspective:
"..does Chris Fraser's umpteen millions of shares suggest an acceptance that there will be a degree of dilution, but that he will still end up with a decent slice of the company when the arithmetic unwinds?"

Lives - near future:
"I'm anticipating and have been for a good while now an extra circa 4bn shares."

Some facts from 8 1/4 years past to present: pre York Potash (pre RNS 17/1/11) Sirius was worth £122m (sp 16.75, issue 728m). Today Sirius is worth £1026m. That's an annual RoG of ~30%/y. Looking to today's sp it's growth is a small fraction, 21.5 gives a RoG of just 3%/y over these 8y 3m. Just 10% of the co's valuation growth has been transferred to the shareholders.

Basic stuff like this is not disputable, but could it have worked out better for holders any other way?

Chris Fraser has said again and again that the absolute priority for him and Sirius is to get the mine built. The subtext from that should be obvious to all who hold that at times their interest will not be coinciding with his. So yes Dan, pain to achieve the end game.

When Sirius bought YP there were 728m in issue, it is now at 4798m. throughout this process CF has been trying to reconcile two forces that will often pull in opposite directions: to raise the very large amounts of cash to build this large deep mine and do that whilst also keeping the business in the hands of its shareholders. I do not know of any other historic example of a potash mine being brought to completion this way.

To St2.

I think Sirius in dumping the MLAs have gone back to what worked before - JPM - we will see soon enough. Lives even though St1 involved a doubling of the total issue I don't think JPM will crucify the ever sacrificial PI as much this time around and I would put a lower figure than your 4bn new issue on it. As I expect the max raise from issue will be for the AF - max ~£450m. The rest Senior debt, subsequently syndicated out by JPM as Sirius bonds....and nice fees to be had.

Hopefully it will be all out of the way soon and the market will return to concentrating on the value proposition and compared to the 8= years so far that time to product has to be a far smaller number.
------------
Now then Myo.

I did love your wolves dressed as shepherds allegory...........but the thing is did you think it through?

Sheep love their shepherd, far more than they ever do a wolf. But for doing so the sheep are damned and can also never learn, nor can their offspring learn from the consequence of such trust. The shepherd will take his sheep on many journeys and defend them from the wolves along the way but then there is the final one, the only one that matters.............the one to the abattoir.

A rewrite?

ATB.

GK.

Well! Goodmorning. Great while it lasted. A full retrace now.

I was hopeful that some of this rise from short covering would hold. Not a bit of it. From that I'm now convinced the market thinks; 'placing'....., is obsessing on it and that at a repetition of the historic previous - 20p. not only that but that pretty much all of the 'additional finance' will be raised from an immediate placing. Is this the market being over pessimistic?

With the co's: "received a conditional proposal" of now exactly one month back. it looks more to me now that the: "....major global financial institution (the "Financial Institution") in respect of its stage 2 financing...." is not atall something that has come to the co's ear from left field, but instead was the backstop that the co has always had available to cover St2 if they could not get it to work with MLAs. The MLAs got frit, asked for too much, so the co walked. We have instead the "Alternative Proposal" - though perhaps 'proposal' is a tad disingenuous? Was always in the background? I think so.

Two things can be concluded if this is the reality now - particularly if it is JPM (lead suitor from the gossip machine):

St2 is more certain, not less, from this;
that there will be more pain and that pain will be more immediate for present holders is more likely than before.

Also if the pain is new issue for the major part of the AF then it seems probable it will also go at a lower price than may have been possible with the now dead MLAs deal. This leaves a long term hit for holders - the eventual divi pot gets divided into a larger total issue.

So I'm loath to conclude this but Mr Casa may well be calling this right to wait until the deal is done and dusted. However I still think that market pessimism on the St2 process's negative sp impact will be trumped by the reaction to the outcome of it - that Sirius have a fully financed mine and that notions of a fair sp then of 60% of project NPV/share (Low) and the like are indeed soon validated.

We'll see. Anyway been buying this morning as regardless of the near term potential for more severe volatility, for me the value proposition holds at this price.

GLA.

GK.

My conclusion: it was short covering - and a lot of it.

Very easy to open a short, simply flash the plastic and press 'sell' (because your taxi driver suggested it), don't bother with the research, then get into forced closure (at an 'orrid price) for being unable to honour the inevitable margin call.

Evening Mr Gulls.

GK. Now where's my book.........Busy, busy.

What tosh!

Huge numbers have been rightly greedy on this share over the last few months - but not ill informed greed, knowledgeable greed........and those who were greedy and willing to risk (and made sure they had the cash available - where from?) are now sitting on real substantive profit.....Just the start imo.

All obvious.

Cheers.

GK. LTH in year ten. GLA.

Tipping point. Ho ho.

GK.

Oh dear, oh dear. What have they done?

Morning. Back from hols, happy days.

GK. Friday last? Now that was stopping point!

Thank You Mr Chil

So it seems the smaller players are reducing whilst the larger ones increase.

GK.

Soz. disclosure thresholds are 0.2% and 0.5%.

GK.

My thoughts are that hedging shorts are no more than 6% of the total and that has remained the same since the reduction following the enhanced redemption offer from the co, closed out in May last. In June EuroClear reported ~8% all shorts (disclosure threshold 2%) whereas STracker was at ~4% (threshold 5%). I expect the EC figure to be ~14% total for March.

I think that a large proportion of the speculative shorts are a punt on Stage Two money failing to materialise, not that it may contain a larger quantum of dilution than is anticipated. If that is so then there would very likely result an impressive short squeeze if St2 is achieved in a timely manor - even with more new issue than is the general expectation.

We will soon see via the red (or not so red) hung out sheets how the co and it's recent 'Prince Charming' are getting on in the bed chamber!!!

AIMO.

GK.

ICL Press release:

"Announcement: Planning Application
March 27, 2016: Cleveland Potash Limited has today announced plans to begin a major public information and consultation programme in preparation for seeking from the North York Moors Park Authority an extension in its planning permission.

Beginning early next month, the Community Engagement programme will include over 100 events running over four months, including an exhibition across 20 venues, public meetings, consultation with 16 Parish and Town Councils, and meetings with a range of key organisations.

The current planning permission for operations at the Boulby Mine, which has been in place since 1968, expires in 2023............."

http://www.icl-uk.uk/planning/

Three years - pretty quiet.

One year to go to get the PP. No app in.

Visibility of 'wall writing'?

GK.

Significant move through resistance this morning aisi. The intraday high of 25/2 at 20.52? looks like the next break that the fast money lot will be monitoring.

Not just those looking to go long but also those exposed with short positions. IG staff will be making the phone calls this morning for margin payment.

Two way risk with this two way stretch.

GLA.

GK. This month!

When spread better IG are trying to 'entice' more punters in it is obvious their book is well out of balance or they fear a bubble and over exposed novices who won't be able to fund margin calls.

Good to have a reminder from the pros of the cliffedge risk for shorts. Unlimited downside.

GK.