Member Info for GaiasKidney

Thing is with TO anyone could have come along at any time in the past eight years and got this for just smal percentages of what they would have to pay now or ahead...........Yet they didn't.

Whyszatden?

GK.

"(my average is in the teens, because I traded the share),"

Naughty Lost! The idea :-)

Like swans (me anyhow) trying desperatly to be serine and perfectly in control....but underneath? Like ...k.

ATB.

GK.

"..you too walk the metaphorical hills"

It's a wiggly world Myo........Until production.

Both ways. With huge fast gains - there have been many - plus with massive falls - also many, it has to be prudent to affix a few nails. Or as some astonishing genius once pronounced; 'buy on the dips, sell on the highs'. Not the opposite.

Past activity from some who post here who then go on to look for someone else to blame for their........'genius'...........But not as funny as the inability to understand that a 'J' is not a 'V' or even more greedily a '/'!!

GK.

Song

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvQcZFPB8H4

Myo hi.

I'm not expecting the same timescales as St1. So many things are different now from then.

Build monitoring is daily important to me, as if they do hit first P in '21 with still being cashed up and what else I anticipate. Then a 4 bag looks obvious.

GK.

So again that is a big chunk of churn and still before the actual new shares come on to market.

Someone wants them, want's them quickly.

Last bus home otherwise it's an expensive taxi!

GK. What will Thusday bring?

Oh yes. A blue fininsh.

And back into the woodwork they go!

1.5bn has been churned since 30/4. Much of that will be forward selling from placing takers. Add the expected 500m plus on day one of issue and an expected av100m + per day for the first week or so and..............?

Move in sticky hands.

GLA.

GK.

It is definitly the time.

Just look at 'em all coming out of the woodwork now!

So, so funny.

Just keep in mind NPV $12bn. Forward to production NPV twice that.

Rampity ramp. Ho ho.

DYO.

GK.

Hi Myo.

Of interest other 'India' hits are:

94 "The Group, headed by Sirius Minerals Plc, comprises fourteen wholly owned statutory entities, nine of which are registered and domiciled in England & Wales. The remaining entities are registered and domiciled in each of Jersey, Canada, Singapore, India and the USA."

121 "Sirius Minerals India Private Limited India Employee payroll B-376, Third floor, Nirman Vihar, New
Delhi, 110092"

20 "Potato trial: India In 2018 we concluded a potato trial in India. India is a key target market for Sirius
and is one of the largest growers of potatoes globally
POLY4 improved early growth parameters:
plant height, crop canopy and leaf greenness
POLY4 increased total potato yield by 11% and marketable yield by 15% over MOP + S
POLY4 application reduced the proportion of non-marketable potato tubers by 27% compared to MOP + S
Financial margins were increased by US$ 192 per hectare when POLY4 replaced MOP + S"

I would expect the deal to land quite soon once the elections are sorted over there.

GK.

Very difficult to gather much certainty on costs of production with fields like these and using new technologies.

World av seems to be 50 to 60 per barrel:

https://knoema.com/vyronoe/cost-of-oil-production-by-country

With Brent at ~70 that does not leave a lot of down side.

Big rise of late and richish valuation. Would only see as a speculative play...at a future low. Not a long term investment.

Just my view.

GK.

And a very fine brewery tap just past St Marys - well worth getting a puff on for....even if it were 400 steps.

GK.

"Following completion of the Existing Convertible Bonds Buy-back (as described below), the Company
expects there to be US$138 million in aggregate principal amount of the Existing Convertible Bonds
outstanding. The Company expects the conversion price for those Existing Convertible Bonds to be
subject to adjustment pursuant to the terms and conditions of Existing Convertible Bonds as a result
of the Firm Placing and Placing and Open Offer."

P233

From that is there an expectation of a repricing of the conversion price of the remaining 2016 CBs from ~25p to somethng like 25p x 4.79bn/6.98bn? Around 17p?

Nothing now would surprise.........And that would be a nice something else for the 'Doomsters' to chew on I supose!

Mutter, mutter. The pos positive is most CB holders have so far shown very little inclination to convert.

GK.

Hi Tobin.

With the New CBs - $400m issued - I'm not thinking as to whether they are a good investment for the PI, though the terms are attractive, more on the potential level of new issue shares that can arrise on conversion of these bonds.

If a repricing of the conversion price were triggered (ie from if the sp goes sub 15p next May) then the number of new shares from converted New CBs will be 25% higher than if there is no trigger. Adds up to a possible 400m extra in issue. But in that instance conversion would probable only occur well into production as sub a 15p sp in one year's time would suggest the St2 financing plan had failed to sell the first Senior Bonds.

Not in my expectation.

ATB.

GK.

Just had a moment with the New Convertible Bond terms before nipping to pub - such an exiting life! - and from my reading the reduction of the issue price can only come into force with the sp being lower than 15p around this time next year. P234 prospectus:

"The terms and conditions of the New Convertible Bonds provide for..the prevailing conversion price to be reset on 25 May 2020 to the average market price... plus the initial conversion premium of 25 per cent. above such average market price (provided such reset results in a conversion price that is lower than the prevailing conversion price and subject to a minimum reset conversion price which is equal to the initial reference share price of US$0.20.."

If I understand correctly.

If the co have failed to get the Initial Bond away this could well apply. However if that's the case we are all well flushed around the U bend anyhow! Conversaly with the bond away in all common sense 15p should then be a small pecentage of the then valuation.

Quite an 'all or (next to) nothing' structure.

GK.

Ho, ho. Very good Myo. A smile for a Saturday morning.

Of course you forgot the (1000s of) Mr Quiets who whilst this is all going on are quietly hoovering up all these shares as (and you never know they may be wrong) they see a bargin.

Vols are vols!

Impatient to Patient...........Was ever thus.

ATB.

GK.
GK

Ha. Just continiued reading this and if only this were so............:

"Sirius has said the sums raised through the placing and the convertible bonds is enough to get the project up and running, and to achieve its initial production capacity target of 10 million tonnes per year. It will then begin to utilise the sums raised through the senior secured bonds and that available through the revolving credit facility to expand the project to 20 million tonnes per year and get the mine to positive cashflow."

If only indeed!

Luckily there wll be positive cashflow from 10m.............and shed loads from 20.

GK.

You bitter about BZM then?

Caveat emptor.

GK.

Hope they improve on that!

SRK:

"The TBM cycle time is specified at 30 minutes per ring (3 m per hour). Assuming no
breakdowns or other delays, achieving a cycle time of 45 minutes (20 minutes to excavate
each ring length and 25 minutes to build each ring) is reasonable. It is understood that the
tunnel will be driven 24 hours per day, seven days per week. In a 12-hour shift, allowing two
hours for personnel to travel to the face and back, the tunnel could advance about 20 m per
shift. However, taking into account planned maintenance, unplanned breakdowns and delays
to spoil removal and segment deliveries, this rate of advance is unlikely to be sustainable,
particularly as the distance to the tunnel face increases as the tunnel advances."

GK.

WW

Key word there? 'Superficial'.

I conclude the same. I expect, when given a while, so will the market.

ATB.

GK.

Cheers Verde

I'm hoping the market gets to appreciate the scale of what is to come and reflect that in the price before........I go senile!!

ATB.

GK.

Morning Myo.

It wil be no surprise to me if they also proceed beyond 13m to the ultimate capacity for this mine of 20m. Combine that with what the co and SRK are modeling on the mix of spot and contract price and some 'interesting' figures come out. However if the co take the mine this way it does push the eventual payouts further out somewhat.

Getting back to near term (little doubt the majority obsession for most in this.. and those looking) I think this will be pulled to the IP by 2.2bn coming on and how long that takes to wash out. 'Floors' won't get a lookin imo (a bit of an 'SL'-esk 'construction' that? ;-)) ). However once the St2 pain is passed I reckon build progress will drive a vast improvement in sentiment, pushing the sp towards a realistic prortion of NPV/sh.

See how it goes.

ATB.

GK.