Member Info for GaiasKidney

Opened sipp 20y back. Looking forward to hitting the LTA soon enough with Sirius.

Good luck holders.

GK.

Hi

Re this first bond. From the 1/5 prospectus p 186:

"On 30 April 2019, the Company entered into the Initial Bond Engagement Letter, pursuant to which the Company has agreed to engage J.P. Morgan Securities (acting directly or through its affiliates) to act as initial purchaser of the Initial Bonds on a best efforts basis, as well as for future bond issuances to refinance or replace amounts drawn under the RCF. In those circumstances, J.P. Morgan
Securities would endeavour to procure purchasers for the full US$500 million of Initial Bonds currently contemplated as part of the Stage 2 Debt, but would not be under any obligation to acquire any Initial Bonds for which it cannot procure purchasers. "

"..would endeavour to procure purchasers.."

From that it cannot be known whether that will involve the public route to selling bonds or, as suggested, a more 'chat to your mates' type of deal. The latter has the potential to be quicker and I would favour it to get this done...provided costs are realistic re yield, fees.

It may aslso be the case that JPM, having got the positive vibe from other lenders, lend to SM all this first $500m and then only slowly over time syndicate what they wish to on to others.

Whatever the 'mists of fear' seem to be clearing with decisive price action. Just a penny short of my av of activity from Nov last now and a lot of potential upside ahead. For instance: future poly price? Check projection p156 & what it is thought this product will be valued around in time with:

"Mature Phase: After several years of POLY4 adoption and performance and further development of value-added products, the Company may be able to implement above-nutrient value pricing."

P157.

GLA.

GK.

That's more like it!

GK

Is there a bond to sell?

GK.

Tnx Myo.

I think I was recalling what I saw in the S73 PA re pyritic mud stone.

I guess it may be that when drive 1 gets to LB arisings from drive 2 may be then sent on to Wilton on the muck conveyor. But before then it will look like drive 2 arisings will be paying £90/t tax then? If Drive 2 gets going before Dr1 gets to LB it may be that that tax will be small spuds compared to the savings/early earnings that come from connecting the tunnel earlier, so TBM2 should not wait on TBM1?

Maybe they can sell it to SHs as Sirius 'souvenir rock'?

GK.

Myo.

From my recollection there was only ever small quantities that were anticipated to be sent to landfill from any of the various sites' arrising. Particularly NHNI materials (primarily Pyritic Mudstone).

Obviously these would also not be acceptable for the purposes STDC anticipate so no savings here, but god see a beneficial use for the rest is beng worked on rather than just new 'hills'.

GK.

Just read the rest of this covering the build, Err....has Chris just got back from hols in Oz then?

Shredded wheat....Never eat

GK.

Members needs to discover how to manage speculative investment for profit before getting wiped out.

S/he may get some sort of kick from lecturing others here, but it will earn nothing.

Risks remain high...as do potential rewards.

GLA.

GK.

Get back to your fields Myo. They need you more than this lot deserve you! ;-)

Detail as far as it goes and as of the plan in Jan is found in sec 9.4 of SRK's CPR.

GK. Dem slugs never stop a munchin'.

There is a hackneyed old maxim that the pricing in the market is a result of the available knowledge about the share in question and that all market participants know this all and act accordingly.

I have never thought this to be so, rather that only a few will seek to continuously gain knowledge on a share to get near to that 'all' place, whereas most looking at a co will do some research, find something they are not comfortable with and promptly move on. With Sirius of late that would be a quick to extensively populate list.

So I've concluded this present sp is all about a general loathing of this share by a large proportion of this 'market' that is out there and that corresponding with a low level of learning about this share. Encapsulated in a pervasive (the classic) 'risk averse' mindset.....which at times should not be knocked, it can serve well for some.

Will 1/ learning change this, 2/ events ahead plus the horrors of the past fading, or 3/ FOMO?

learning I dismiss, they don't feel any need to, so it's 2 followed by 3 then.

However I also suggest the learned presently see a bargain and at only a very small negative risk.

But as ever DYO.............they won't btw!

See 'ow it pans out. Back to the lazy summer afternoon.

GK.

Ahem Myo. When you say "TT" are you thinking Atlantic naming of such tempests rather than Pacific?

Dusters! Oh dear!

GK.

Only temporary... Mr Chadders.

GK.

LPG power station base in da woods. Only temporary.

Morning Myo.

GK.

Ha. Warming up again I see.

Will they, won't they? .. the daily 'frenzy' ?

I guess sub two months now. Survivable...or mental meltdown?......or just enjoy the summer instead?

GK. A long cold gin I think!

WW.

Try this:

https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/2042922-1/ECCB108F549528595526DCD6A2553BBC?partnerref=rss-events

GK.

https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/console/EventConsoleApollo.jsp?&eventid=2042922&sessionid=1&username=&partnerref=rss-events&format=fhaudio&mobile=false&flashsupportedmobiledevice=false&helpcenter=false&key=ECCB108F549528595526DCD6A2553BBC&text_language_id=en&playerwidth=1000&playerheight=650&overwritelobby=y&eventuserid=245886384&contenttype=A&mediametricsessionid=203893983&mediametricid=2880478&usercd=245886384&mode=launch

GK.

T4 you are correct.....but people like to have a chance to vent on.

GK

Evening Aubery.

It's quite possible ....afterall anything is with this share and its notorious volitility.

FP (and connected MTS) at we hope no later than end '21 means the realy major risks have gone. There will still be ~7.2bn share then I expect, otherwise you have a to assume (very nice thankyou) CBs are getting converted when if they hold to end they get a whoppa bonus.

Also have a look from pps 150 on in the prospectus on what is thought P4 pricing will be when this gets to 10/13/20mt/y and it's relation to nutrient value pricing. It may just be that Mcap £10bn ends up pretty consevative.....in the final analysis.

HAGW.

GK

Any power now over the PI or more important, the project?

Maybe for a few who have chosen not to inform themselves well. But of far far more importance FMV is can any of this bashing impact the plans of the co? In the past maybe so but now anything significant from such has been substantially reduced in power because of the structure of St2.

First: those who will take this Initial bond will have near to zip above zero interest in what goes on on forums and will instead look at the fundamentals and risk of the proposition and also be guided by the rating agencies for this maiden offer.

Second; once that first bond sale is away a line of credit opens up that provides funds to some $1.5bn above the capex and debt servicing plus other needs the project requires to complete to earnings status...and they will then be some earnings.

This structure now makes it highly improbable that within at least 3-4 years there would be any probable risk of the co again needing to go to the new issue market and dilute. Even if that were to occur it is then even more improbable that the tunnel and shaft build would not have both got past their respective high risk milestones of tunnel connection and shafts to ore level. With that the project is majority derisked and the valuation far higher..and so the sp has a far higher base.

Smarter bashers understand all this, but still have an opportunity for a bit more here as they are probably right in that they will still be able to mislead many of those who choose to be ill informed or remain consumed with fear from recent events.

But time and history are now definitly with us..and not them.

GK.

"Would it be true to say, based on p234 of the prospectus, that the bondholders benefit from the share price being held down as much as possible until the reset date of May 2020,"

Not FMU Dan.

The reset can only happen if the sp is on av below 15p for the immediatly preceeding 6w period before the 25/5/20 detirmination date. Not any other period and certainly not today.

An sp that low could be the case then though........but only imo if the St2 Initial bond has failed to go. In which case I think a CB repricing will be the least of our concerns!!!!

ATB.

GK.