Member Info for GaiasKidney

Duke...march? You just have to roll with it.

Little chance that 'Aim game' attitude towards Sirius and their Mega Project (mega earnings..... - and mega bills) will fade away here until this becomes a boring debt stable divi payer. aisi.

What sp then eh?

Research:
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Law..... and..............
Human psychology.

Up trigger to new value? St2 Event. Two months max.

GK.

That's why the Herd has such (irrational?) power Myo.

Far easier to follow rather than think....and then do the graft. But if you do you're at the front.

GK.

Conditions, yes MASH.

The 'trust' factor. Has to be resolved before value is released. IMO.

Ah paaa.! The end game is afoot.

Atb chaps.

GK.

Hi Sdow.

I cannot see any reason that will withstand any decent analysis why these bonds won't go but will instead go with ease. But will that obvious co sucess send this sp orbiting on that event? I doubt it.

There has been and remains a terrible 'trust issue' between a large proportion of mobile investors (not pepetual loyalists) and Sirius aisi. I think it will still take some time, plus very solid positive project risk crushing news, to dispell that. Ie the near now 'Event' sign off.

Only then I think will the large volumes of mobile money (daily craved for here) come in. Only then will this have a chance of moving sustainably to the next level. A level that reflects more of NPV and fair discount to that when observing previous/present peer project comparisons.

This is what I mean by the psychology of the 'overhang', the recovery of trust that will remove the fear of others selling.

So do enjoy Summer......And seasons always do change.

GK.

Lively day! Surprised I got a buy order filled....have to work out how to pay for that now.

I expect it will be this Stage 2 Debt Event being completed and this only that will encourage the sp upwards by a significant and sustainable degree that will then hold.

I expect presently Sirius remains unforgiven (re 'events' Sept '18 - May '19) by those in the market who are substantialy able and also potentially willing to buy near-term here in large volume. IIs? No. LTH? No. It will be HNW speculators. It usually is. They will then be followed by the usuals with their charts and chasing..................and forgiveness will then be bestowed upon us.

Until next time???......Or better stability then on? Just could be.

GK. St2DE by Sept end. Enjoy Summer.

What they see as a fair discount to NPV, no more afaict.

GK.

Some 360m of tubbing there Wooly.

This high pressure aquifer will need a lot of grouting behind the liner as well. I would prefer them not to rush that aspect. Wrong and down the line you can lose your mine..........in a blink.

How they tackle the Carnalitic Marl (29m) is of greater interest to me. 'Hard' appoach or 'soft'? If you have not seen this I found this work from Jia on Bouby highly informative of the Boulby (ongoing?) experience, tnx to wwguk:

http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/11924/1/PhD_Thesis_-_Y._Jia.pdf

Bodge after bodge over the years! Not ideal but still they function.

ATB.

GK.

Hi Lives.

For co est timing for further bond issue check p16 of AGM Pressy. To see the detail from prospectus within the Sirius-JPM 'Committment letter' do Cntrl F "Securities Demand".

Or better still have a look tomoz, it's beer-O-clock!

HAGW.

GK.

Haha. Male chicken common name??? Banned. Just don't metion that town on the South bank of the Humber eh!

GK. ;-))

Hi Viaticum.

In the RNS:

"with the release of the proceeds from escrow subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions."

This 'conditions' wording also appears in the prospectus, in particular for the 'Stage two Event' to occur for what the co need to do. This within:

"Risks in respect of the Stage 2 Financing", from p34 and in p35;

"Finalised commitments under the RCF are subject to a number of conditions precedent, including (i) issuance of the New Convertible Bonds and of the full
mount of the Initial Bonds, (ii) entry into certain agreements for or exercise of rights in relation to procurement and access relating to the project and amendments to clarify certain specific areas in some of the Offtake Agreements (as defined below), (iii) entry into intercreditor arrangements, including an intercreditor agreement with Han****, and (iv) drawdown of the Equity Purchase Price under the Royalty Financing. If these conditions are not met, the Company will be unable to draw on the RCF and will not be able to use the proceeds thereof....." Etc.

FMU some of this is already complete. Others appear not. not a particular concern though.

ATB.

GK.

"

Soooo......

1/ $400m CB of May last. Out of escrow with the issuing of this (presume "acceptable US$500 million debt financing") note and the completion of the 'St2 Debt Event' and;

2/ $500m from sale of said notes to come out of out of escrow once Sirius have got passed the: "subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions" stuff and;

3/ the $2.5bn (+ up to $1bm extra) from the RCF defacto also in escrow also until the St2 'Event', presume dependent on same 'conditions'?

Soooo....All in Sirius's half now. All $4.4bn of it......................Best get on with it then!!!!

;-)

GK.

I would expect the note will be traded on an exchange in time. from that one will be able to know at what yield the market wants Sirius debt.

But is this Sirius debt or Sirius subsidiaries debt? Sirius are not securing this:

"The Notes will initially be guaranteed on a senior secured basis by York Potash Holdings Limited, the direct parent of the Issuer, and York Potash Ltd. and York Potash Processing & Ports Limited, subsidiaries of the Issuer, and on a senior unsecured basis by the Company. The proceeds of the Notes will initially be deposited into an escrow account, with the release of the proceeds from escrow subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions."

GK.

Cran

This goes to "Relevant Persons". There may not be anything else published on this until it's all done and dusted.

See para 3 of the "Cautionary Statement"

GK.

Ah. Proper news!

Loan notes? Shorter dated than bonds (usually 10y+), these 8y. note in escrow until 'conditions' satisfied. Note full $500m.

Good.

https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/4-107-6780?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)&firstPage=true&bhcp=1

GK.

Back above 16.

Just think, the next two permanent winders for the production shaft, to arrive within a year, will be lifting 13,000,000 tonnes per year of ore to be turned into 13,000,000 tonnes of product per year that will be selling at north of $2.5 billion per year, in fact north of $3bn if Poly4 sells at nutrient value...............and this in just some 5 to 6 years as per this co's projection.

So NN, take this on th 20mt/y and yes £4-50p is indeed still on the cards for this sp.

Nothing like a proper lazy summer afternoon ramp... now is there lads?

Talking of which.....Sheep, your question (still amongst those not deleted). Perhaps the most obvious and simple answer is THE answer: they don't need the cash until September.

GK.

Tnx Thornback.

Good to see the world's best engineering technology from amongst the world's best cos going into this 100y project......and all hapening at a pace!

GK.

Your weary LTH may cast their mind back to those heady days of the planning furore when Sirius was being - let's say - 'ecouraged' to nip down to the post office to secure more envelopes of a non white hue. Sorry I'll rephrase that: when Sirius was discovering the merits of local community support.

One of these many S106s was tourism, particularly Welcome to Yorkshire. A not insignificant 200.000 quid has been/is to be passed over. sec 4.2 p24:

http://planning.northyorkmoors.org.uk/northgate/documentexplorer/application/stream.aspx?target=http%3A%2F%2Flocalhost%2FNorthgate%2FDocumentExplorer%2FDocumentStream%2FDocumentStream.aspx%3Fname%3Dpublic%2Baz%2BDraft%2BS106%2BAgreement%2B-%2BVersion%2B04%2B(07%2BOctober%2B2015).pdf%26unique%3D811019%26type%3DNLP11GL1_DC_PLANAPP

Welcome to Yorkshire are in the news today!!.......Do have a look.......I will be glad to provide a bucket of nails for people to chew on and spit out as they read on.

GK.

"..the Company has agreed to engage J.P. Morgan Securities (acting directly or through its affiliates) to act as initial purchaser of the Initial Bonds on a best efforts basis...... In those circumstances, J.P. Morgan Securities would endeavour to procure purchasers for the full US$500 million of Initial Bonds currently contemplated as part of the Stage 2 Debt, but would not be under any obligation to acquire any Initial Bonds for which it cannot procure purchasers."

"initial purchaser of the Initial Bonds ". "would endeavour to procure purchasers for the full US$500 million of Initial Bonds."

AIUI these are senior secured bonds in the name of Sirius. Bonds that later will be available on an exchange and there will be a secondary market where the market value can change. Exchange marketability for the bonds will greatly improve their attractiveness. most co bonds are of this type.

Also AIUI JPM will sound out the market, buy the issue as 'initial purchaser' (provided market interest is suficient - a case of correct co documentation /conditionals satisfied, pricing from raters and due dili from buyers) and sell the (what would have to be imo undoctored) Sirius bonds to those who expressed interest, either by private deal or via the market.

I would think once JPM have them off their hands (as with the issuing of later bonds) then not only does the RCF become available to Sirius (with further extra borring possible) but any liability as defined in the bond terms then passes from them. The market can only work freely this way - as much as it can.

I think JPM are more concerned about level of risk exposure than maximizing the gouge potential.

All sorted soon we hope.

GK.

the '20%ers' are all but spent out....and after just a day and a bit.

Very good sign that!

GK.

Ps: thinking the IB news may be RNS: JPM have today bought Sirius's $500m senior bond...err...that's it. Fraser comment: 'We're doin' it!........and don't call me J Curve'.

Opened sipp 20y back. Looking forward to hitting the LTA soon enough with Sirius.

Good luck holders.

GK.