Member Info for GaiasKidney

"Gold1234
Posts: 7
Premium Chat Member
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 17.80
RE: Heading lower ? Mon 16:33
Sirius Minerals lol..."

I see we have another genius trying to save us........

I was buying. ....what fool am I.

GK.

Evening SL.

Move past your persistent fantasy if you can and try a bit to comprehend (that's the next level above reading btw) today's news.

The two things that have not changed today and there is nothing saying they are to are the total senior debt remains exactly the same - unsurprising, this is where Sirius want it (they said so some 18m back) and also the additional amount is flagged at exactly the same place that it was before. No one has said anything about debt levels or any issue there...........Apart from Mr Indolent.

BTW you seem to have been very slothful in the pit this AM, not the usual 9AM BB swipe. Was Sir Lancelot a bit late today with the tea and rns papers?

57m

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJrxKD80pGE

GK.

Right. Up and had some brekky now. Not writing on a dumass tablet!

I think that when the Lending Group and the IPA(?) decided that they were going to impose the '3 tranche' route on Sirius (that's what I conclude happened with the change to the 22/1 "US$3 billion multi-tranche structure"), the LGs overplayed their hand and the concomitant cost increase forced Sirius to look at what they are in and seek alternatives..........AMC to DMC and earlier the PA1 horlicks. Familiar outcomes?

So now as of today there are multiple competing sources for the $3bn senior debt and aisi the LGs still have a window (though now rapidly closing) to improve on/rescind what they (with the much reduced IPA addition) are presently offering. This could include a lowering of the 'risk allocation/transfer' and hence the magnitude of the additional requirement. Maybe.

I think with this 'table turn' today it will take something pretty attractive for Sirius to now go back to them.

With the new single entity lender it appears the 'additional requirement' remains as previous guidance or it is not yet worked on and it looks to be unchanged in the options for its structure or when it is to come in as cash....or else they would have said so today. So the coincident point on the timeline for the first St2 event (p13 recent pres) still holds imo.

Also, as it is obvious, does the basic structure/place of the ranking of the $3bn of debt and that it is still all debt. Not more or less. This I see as a Sirius criteria re limiting senior exposure, noone elses.

Given that the only real change today is 'from who' (bar we also have a target date back again) I think this can now motor through quickly to 'closed' and two major market fears that were rapidly (but not necessarily rationally) rising up the scale, should now dissipate - being that the St2 model/deal they had with the LG was generally failing due to the 'over the barrel/clock ticking' disadvantage to the borrower and that the clock itself winding down raising the spectre of build suspension. With it now being firmly demonstrated that in this last 'set' the borrower has now decisively taken the advantage back in this bargaining those fears have lost most of their rational.

The market may take a little while to get its head around that. A chance for those who could not hack the stress to get back in perhaps?

GLA.

GK. Get up Mr Indolent!!! ;-)

Indolent?

Liquidation..... You know which room!

It's an auction now.

GK

Expect a rise.

GK.

Ah Fred, thank you.

Must admit with the mood around here today, when you said you were just going out, it occured that you could on hols in a tent in Antarctica when you said that!...

Not it seems :-)

GK.

Hi Slurms.

I think your 19-22 is the only post I agree with today. but since it contains no conspiracy theories and no paranoia, it is not dishing out blame or being shouty....or wracked with self indulgent misery even!!......... it remains unpopular and tickless ;-))

Way of the world. Clap your hands and off they go. Those 'pigeons' will soon return once they see all that 'grain' down there.

Take care.

GK.

I'll duplicate this on both channels since you are on both.

Both Salt Lake Potash and Sirius are good companies with good prospects IMO, but they are both going to take some time and much money to then fulfil their respective earnings potentials. There will inevitably be hiccoughs along the way. I also see that both these cos are in nearterm need of further funding so as to continue their development paths without there being delays to their respective builds.

But there are big differences. Differences that have driven me to seriously reallocate just recently.

SLP need cash soon for their proposed 20 to 40kt/y pilot production facility, in the region of 1/4rd to 1/3 of their current Mcap I think. With that they should create a facility that should produce earnings around 10% (@30kt/y) per year of SO4's current Mcap. Earnings that should arrive quite quickly but at a low amount but also steady and with quite large future upside potential. They are not providing much at all on how this build capex is to be raised. It is therefore probable IMO that it will all come vie new share issue and soon.

In great contrast Sirius are trying to raise a much higher amount that is as of today some 3.2x their present Mcap. This is a very big ask. However if successful they will be fully funded to take their part built mine over the next 3 or 4 years to 10mt/y capacity, providing earnings around some 70% of today's Mcap. 7x more than SLP but slower to arise. I also see the Sirius route re financing as a far higher risk proposition, as it looks like of late so does the market.

Recently SLP has risen, I suspect because the market is starting to respect their genuine progress, whereas Sirius over recent months, has shown a serious decline.

My response to that is to do the opposite of what you suggest with me having reduced SLP by some 2/3rds over the last week or so and particularly on last Wed, Fri and today (I suspect, unfortunately, it was my sells - only 4 out of 9 have appeared on ADVFN - that ticked SLP down both today and Friday first thing) and add significantly more to Sirius, as there is now such huge negative sentiment towards Sirius that I would think any deal that covers all the need to complete their mine will in time be received well by the market.

Where as I think the only deal SLP will be able to get will with certainty take the sp there down until the earnings become more visible.

We'll see what transpires.

ATB.

GK.

I'll duplicate this on both channels since you are on both.

Both Salt Lake Potash and Sirius are good companies with good prospects IMO, but they are both going to take some time and much money to then fulfil their respective earnings potentials. There will inevitably be hiccoughs along the way. I also see that both these cos are in nearterm need of further funding so as to continue their development paths without there being delays to their respective builds.

But there are big differences. Differences that have driven me to seriously reallocate just recently.

SLP need cash soon for their proposed 20 to 40kt/y pilot production facility, in the region of 1/4rd to 1/3 of their current Mcap I think. With that they should create a facility that should produce earnings around 10% (@30kt/y) per year of SO4's current Mcap. Earnings that should arrive quite quickly but at a low amount but also steady and with quite large future upside potential. They are not providing much at all on how this build capex is to be raised. It is therefore probable IMO that it will all come vie new share issue and soon.

In great contrast Sirius are trying to raise a much higher amount that is as of today some 3.2x their present Mcap. This is a very big ask. However if successful they will be fully funded to take their part built mine over the next 3 or 4 years to 10mt/y capacity, providing earnings around some 70% of today's Mcap. 7x more than SLP but slower to arise. I also see the Sirius route re financing as a far higher risk proposition, as it looks like of late so does the market.

Recently SLP has risen, I suspect because the market is starting to respect their genuine progress, whereas Sirius over recent months, has shown a serious decline.

My response to that is to do the opposite of what you suggest with me having reduced SLP by some 2/3rds over the last week or so and particularly on last Wed, Fri and today (I suspect, unfortunately, it was my sells - only 4 out of 9 have appeared on ADVFN - that ticked SLP down both today and Friday first thing) and add significantly more to Sirius, as there is now such huge negative sentiment towards Sirius that I would think any deal that covers all the need to complete their mine will in time be received well by the market.

Where as I think the only deal SLP will be able to get will with certainty take the sp there down until the earnings become more visible.

We'll see what transpires.

ATB.

GK.

in this I've seen dozens Sxx of selloffs like today's......And exactly the same number of recoveries.

Trick is with this and so so many others, is to understand that the vast majority of those selling are short term and under researched PIs. Ask your self: do they know more than you?

Some scars on my hands from the knives from acting contrary to the crowd, but on the whole 'buy on the depths of despair' is the way the really decent future gains are made.

DYOR.

GLA.

GK.

Afternoon Myo, I trust you are well.

" radii "? Circumference!

Me? Tiptoeing around the edge and looking down. Oooooooh!!

GK.

Order just nibbled by the machine. :->

Morning Chesh. Happy febrile Monday!!

GK. End of daze..............tick............tick.........scramble.

A bit more challenging logistically for the other TBM launch points I imagine.

Each drive has some 50k segments along its length fmu, at, what 10 to 15 per lorry load that'll be a few trips. At 20m/day of drive, some 100 segments? Quite a few lifts down those shafts or trips back and forth for the service train.

This is logistics - doable.

GK.

Evening Myo.

" as others have already pointed out, a suspension would seem a sensible option"

Well, me so far!

A suspension will also provide a level playing field imposed on those who think they will be 'getting in quick'. Instead they will be 'getting in' once the knowledge, and then the realisation, of how profound this project moving to 'fully funded' status will be, has sunk in to all - even those who just keep a casual eye on this.

It has been well observed how this can react when mobile money gets attracted to here. The MMs and the 'Machine' (SETS) will also be on the ball. With a good, or even just a so-so to reasonable, full St2 deal, regardless it will be seen as 'the deal is done and fantastically well done' What price then the open eh?

"when the 30p safe "negative risk takers" are hitting that 100% the 20p "positive risk takers are already at 200%." Could well Myo, could well be those who have held despite the pain or have them in place and have of late added in spades to take the risk will be seeing 400 500 if the the 'comfort cravers' are to be seeing 200.

ATB.

GK. Tickerty!

Morning Milo:

"up to $1b from IPA, CF seems OK with it, IPA OK with it. Why are we not OK with it?"

I'm OK with non of it getting the cover if that is how it is to go - HMG as reliable as a chocolate fireguard - .....and also with CF stating:

"The first change in that, we have talked about going to the bond markets before with the high-yield bonds.

We think that is beneficial to the whole structure and the whole credit anyway to do that first, to essentially open up that debt capital market to Sirius Minerals and get us to be known as an issuer. That improves our access to capital and improves the opportunity of refinancing during that period of time.

It also means that as we get towards the end of the project and you come towards that period of time where you may be using that IPA guarantee, with access to the capital markets construction risk essentially done and revenue starting from early polyhalite sales, it's quite likely that you'll actually, as a company, go to the capital markets rather than actually issuing any guaranteed bonds, actually just continue in that high-yield market and issue more tranches of those bonds in the future.

But that creates the optionality for us. So if the liquidity requirement is there, then obviously the IPA guarantee, the assets in the structure will be called upon. Otherwise, we'd be looking to use the capital markets as our way forward."

He looks to be making sure Sirius will be fine in any circumstance. Sound planning IMO.

If you have a good 'car' to sell the punters will que up!

Sale day soon!!

GK.

Now then.

It looks like there will be a very busy day for those concerned when the point arrives as it appears is advised on the co's most recent presentation timeline, p13. There will be a lot happening if they are to have both the US$400- US$600m financing closed and the Lender commitment letters received and one can only presume that all that then being announced to the market.

Commitment letters means all of the Stage 2 money is agreed and closed. Meaning the co and the parties will be announcing all in one;

The additional money - the first to spend - from where, how much and how done.
Tranche 1 high yield bonds sourced to the satisfaction of the senior lenders consortium
Tranche 2 agreed to be provided and giving the final St2 total and how the conditionals have been satisfied.
Tranche 3 the IPA, the Gov will also be wanting to say something on this day no doubt - grab that kudos!

I would also expect the co will want to maximise the PR blitz on the day as well. Lots of talking heads.

With all that and it being a bit of a big unknown what will happen to the valuation over this, without exaggeration, transformation for the fortunes of Sirius and their project. So on the day rather than the usual mundane 'oh by the way we've got it' RNS, instead I anticipate a 7am suspension of trading and then an all day jolly good showing off session by the co. Then once all the news has bedded in some 'interesting' activity on the re open. Quite looking forward to it.

GLA holders.

GK.

Hi.

With the Jan modification to the St2 financing - the '3 tranches' - the IPA will only now come into play at the most to cover the 3rd tranche. Drawdown on that is at least two years away. From that it is p1ss easy for any present gov to sign off a promise on cover.

Fraser has already made broad hints that Sirius will be looking at the alternative of another visit to the junk bond market (as per tranche 1) to cover the tranche 3 requirement.

AISI bar some due dilly, the last tranche IPA is already offered and it is tying up of loose ends elsewhere that need to be finalised.........The additional funding and tranche 1.

I expect all will become clear quite soon, a day to hold onto your hats.

GK.

Hi Verulam

You could try the main geo at Fugro - Chris Jones:

https://www.fugro.com/media-centre/news/fulldetails/2018/11/02/fugro-s-geotechnical-talent-and-project-performance-recognised-with-industry-awards

I believe he headed the seismic investigative work from late '17 to mid '18 along the route of the MTS. You never know!

Even before the MTS was mooted by Sirius it was understood that there was numerous faulting along the proposed route.

https://www.tunneltalk.com/York-Potash-Project-UK-11Feb2015-TBM-plan-of-attack-for-planned-potash-mine.php

Fugro (their second characterization contract for Sirius) would have pinned these down with far more precision on position, extent and and scale and with little doubt discovered and characterized many more on the line of this tunnel. This level of faulting over this large distance will be in some contrast to what will be expected for the polyhalite seams below WS, where particular effort was put in to find the area of ore that had the lowest level of faulting so as to decide where to mine.

In the 2014 PA the Park Planners were very keen that Sirius should prove that any alternative sites for a mine outside the NP were untenable and uneconomic. Consequently a huge volume of submissions went in for the Alternative Sites Assessment. Including the geo..and the faulting. Documents:

http://planning.northyorkmoors.org.uk/northgate/documentexplorer/application/folderview.aspx?type=NLP11GL1_DC_PLANAPP&key=811019&iWgrnzsWW4I=aH8Pp24Bn4U=

In the list find 'ASA appendices part 3, pages 7 & 12 and part 5, p16 for faulting maps. Part 9, p36 for a very nice map covering faults and the ore thickness contours. Thank you Rick Smith!

As with the MTS the mining area may have more undiscovered faults. When Sirius mine they will be horizontal boring the poly ahead looking for issues. if they find significant faulting they will sterilize that area and move elsewhere. With the MTS this approach cannot happen, faults discovered will have to be driven through. So the tunnel should be strengthened IMO.

GK.

out there again today.

5m in first 2h, not bad for a Friday.

HNW brigade are getting frisky it appears. Spring in the air?

GK.

Well, this is it Cranleigh. I cannot now see such a type of equity component within the AF if indeed the CLs are to be "received" and also the AF to be "closed" occur at the same time point, as the co are now indicating.

Ie item 4 of:

"Strategic partner
Completion support
Structured capital
Capital markets

Now has no time frame, which would have to be necessary and publicised to instigate it.

This doesn't exclude new issue mind, but market/public conscription?

Maybe I am reading far too much into one point on a line with two lines of text next to it? ;-))

GK.