Member Info for GaiasKidney

Sl you yesterday:

"I hope that the IPA is not a "necessity'' but, the weight of evidence for such a requirement seems to weigh heavily against your 11:35 prose."

Have you spent a bit of time today looking at your 'evidence' then?......And also, one can only hope, THE evidence?

Chimera: "perceived as wildly imaginative, implausible, or dazzling." more importantly: "The term "chimera" has come to describe any mythical or fictional animal"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chimera_(mythology)

In the 'Room'? I see no Heffalump!....... They are in place to take it or leave it. If it is to only to be offered to cover Phase 3, this is blindingly obvious.

GK.

For this year SRK in the Prospectus have Capex on the build at $520m (fig 13-5, p126), some $43m/m. add say another $7m/m for all of Sirius's other sustaining costs then $50m/m looks to be near what is going on presently.

They had £230m (~=$300m) as available cash at end Q4, therefore it seems the money runs out end Q2. Five months.

In Fraser's wcast when referring to the prospective future participation of the IPA in St2, he attaches a caveat 3 separate times I think along the lines, 'if they offer a guarantee'. It may be the case that Fraser has no plan for a workable St2 if it becomes so that the IPA makes no offer to guarantee the 3rd phase of St2 (that being post 'first polyhalite' is presumed'), but is that really likely? Get real.

Never been that keen on the fickle risk and 'ball and chain' nature of having Guv involved and have said so from the outset. Fine by me if this end game with St2 is soon to see the back of it. Aisi this mine has investable comercial merit and can stand on its own with that. The continuation post St1 of presenting the potential of Guv possible backing 'featherbedding' the sp may have helped confidence for a while but on the whole has been a damaging chimera imo.

GK.

"the IPA necessity!!!"

Necessity?

Oh SL I do so hope you are not making your..err...'investment'...errr...'decisions' on you concluding that!!!

Listen to da man..........A period of listening does us all good......try it.

CIs being delivered dependent on IPA offering? Nope.
Extra capital (the 400 to 600m) above the $3bn senior dependent on IPA offering? Nope.
Phase 2 and 3 of the 3bn dependent on IPA offering? Nope.
Sirius being able to source phase 3 dependent on IPA offering it? Nope.

Perhaps the 'elephant' has suffered the sad demise of so many others and ended up part rotting in the bush and part found in a shipping container in China?

GK.

LL? ;-))

SL what HAVE you done?!!!!!

GK. Rhetorical

You may be right. the reinjection pad is to be converted to a lorry park! :-)

GK.

Of course brine from the Shewood will be going down the reinjection well. Still have to be filtered.

GK.

This is the non saline waste water. Some from the geo, some from construction activity? Peak in early '21? Don't know.

Sherwood aquifer is saline, looks as though that gets treated elsewhere, see Arup p 124, water arridings from below 750m down. Later phase. Could be far higher in vol. Let's hope not!

GK.

Myo

Mostly ancillary and environmental, but of most interest the Galloway: Sec 3.5 of the Construction Method Statement. From p94 of the pdf

GK.

Docs for Phase 9 going up. NYM/2019/0041/CVC

http://planning.northyorkmoors.org.uk/northgate/documentexplorer/application/stream.aspx?target=http%3A%2F%2Flocalhost%2FNorthgate%2FDocumentExplorer%2FDocumentStream%2FDocumentStream.aspx%3Fname%3DPublic%2B2019-01-23%2BSupporting%2BInformation.pdf%26unique%3D814657%26type%3DNLP11GL1_DC_PLANAPP

GK.

To clarify a bit further Appy.

With the search tap in 'Sirius Minerals' or for earlier apps 'York Potash'. PA: 'NYM/2014/0676/MEIA' is the Planning Permission for Woodsmith and MTS within the Park.

For R&CBC same applies, the PA for the MHF and MTS is R/2014/0627/FFM.

https://planning.redcar-cleveland.gov.uk/Search/Planning/Advanced

GK.

Morning Appy..............Myo pass tha ball, well lined up to boot 'is concern strait int' back o net.

"Myo how many more planning agreements are there? Surely lenders are waiting for all agreements to be in place so they have no surprises?? I’m confident, just clearly a lot that is happening which may take further time"

Nowthen! Indeed Appy amongst all the other stuff, the Bank Lenders require that Sirius have all permissions in place to build and mine. They do have ALL the permissions........Good thing!!!

What you are seeing with the many submissions Sirius are presenting to the NYMNPA and Redcar and Cleveland BC are a few minor changes (amendments) that are permitted within the permission umbrella and, in majority, Verification Checks. Sirius are having to make submissions to the authorities to fully or partially discharge these checks, the checks were put in by the Authorities as part of the original permissions as Conditions they imposed.

These checks and amendments are what Myo is highlighting as with each submission also comes a lot of documentation that flags up a lot of what the next stages (Phases) of construction coming are and when........Very useful!

http://planning.northyorkmoors.org.uk/Northgate/PlanningExplorer/GeneralSearch.aspx

"Applicant Name" . Stacks comes up. Go to 'Documents'.

ATB.

GK.

Evening Lost.

Thanks for that. It is good to see anything that can enhance understanding. Re:

"I suppose that the difference between your take and mine is that you're expecting the full structure to be RNS'd .."

Not necessarily a disclosure to the market of the detail of the full structure then but instead that Sirius state they have shown evidence to the BLs and IPA how they do that and I expect with/via whom they have agreement with. Particularly the, first to be delivered, 'additional capital'...and that the BLs/IPA accept that, so have commited.

So with your take re:

"get commitment letters for the $3 bn debt from lender group/IPA (which will have the pre-condition of a successful raise of the "extra funding") - this will result in an RNS stating such"

I don't think the CLs will go out to Sirius with a precondition, I think this said condition (plus all others) will have been fulfilled by Sirius. Until that,.. no letters.

Will that mean later for the del of the CLs? Maybe, but I don't think much beyond your timeline.

Will there be more disclosure on St2 structure before we get CLs? Now I am not thinking so.

Tomoz another day!!!!!!!

Cash burn ~$3m/d by my reckoning!!!!!!!!!!

GK.

Hi.

Re your earlier, with this st2 raise do note nothing happens until it all happens and Fraser said 'coming months'. I think now it is more about both sides (Sirius and the Bank Lenders) getting on with the due dily. The principal 'Negotiation' FMU is passed, the BLs have stated how much they will offer and at what stage, as have the IPA. Both have stated the criteria Sirius have to fulfil and Sirius appear to agree that.

The result is (as per RNS last week) Sirius have to evidence to the BLs and IPA that they have sourced the two parts of the sequenced financing that are to come before the BLs and the IPA release funds, namely the 'Additional Capital' (to be drawn on first, may contain 'new issue' - bit like 'nuts') and also the 'uncovered debt capital markets tranche', drawn on second. There is also other due dily stuff.

Once done and accepted by Sirius's counterparties the 'Commitment Letters' come back to Sirius and all of the St2 deal gets announced.

I'll bore you with last week's 'bootstrapping' thinking again as to what then happens, if I may:

"The agreeing and sequencing between on one side Sirius and on the other the commercial bank senior lenders and the IPA, aiui from where we are now is:

1/ Construction engineer advisors on both sides agree and fix the precise amount of the capital requirement to complete the build to 10mt/y.

2/ Sirius and the bank lenders then agree the total final number for all of St2.

3/ Sirius demonstrate to the bank lenders and the IPA that they are able to source the balance, ie the non senior 'additional capital' (= total final number - $3bn) and from where and whom it is coming from, evidenced.

4/ Sirius also demonstrate to the bank lenders and the IPA that they are able to source the first senior debt, the 'uncovered debt capital markets tranche', also evidenced.

5/ The bank lenders and the IPA accept and agree the deal and the commitment letter go out to Sirius.

6/ This gets rns disclosed to the market..........and this is where the bootstrapping process unfolds, as;

7/ With this rns comes disclosure that not only the $3bn of senior debt is offered and secured but also the uncovered capital is sourced and agreed - the total of St2 is agreed and secured.

8/ The market responds to this news - bootstrapping into the air.

9/ Sirius then go to those who have agreed to provide the additional capital to make it so.

10/ The rest of the tranches follow in order and the bootstrapping unfolds to its conclusion.

11/ Mine gets built."

Meanwhile for a time I expect there will be dead air from the co and we have to wait.

AAISI.

ATB.

GK.

"What's next?"

Myo what will be a shame - but we all know is necessary - is that in a few months a lot of these most interesting views from the drone flyovers are gunna disappear.............under Parkie imposed 'agricultural style building'. As engineers I suspect we would be liking vistas of the raw guts of it all instead as it all progresses..........and f**k the sensibilities of the Parkies!!!!!!!!!!!! :-))))

GK.

Yep Myo.

There are a few jobs before and around the VSM taking the SS down to -120m:

"Description of the works

1. Completion of Service Shaft Headgear Chamber

These works will comprise excavation beyond 168.17m AOD (as approved under Phase 5) within the
headgear chamber diaphragm wall to full depth at around 157.67m AOD and construction of the 2.5m
thick concrete floor anchored down by piles. The works will also comprise the installation of a 5m subcellar in the base of the headgear chamber in order to facilitate the safe construction of the main mine
shafts.

2. The Vertical Shaft Sinking Machine “VSM” (similar to Phase 4a) will be utilised to construct the shaft
from the floor level of the headgear chamber (162.17m AOD) to 83.17m AOD, using precast concrete
segmental liner. There will be a reinforced concrete guide collar at the top which will be subsequently
removed in order to construct the sub-basement.

3. Excavation of Production Shaft Headgear Chamber
These works will comprise excavation within the headgear chamber diaphragm wall at the production
shaft to a depth of around 158.16m AOD and construction of the 2.5m thick concrete floor anchored
down by piles. The works will include the planned removal of the top sacrificial section of the deeper
diaphragm walls that form the start of the main shaft. Also included within these works is the
installation of a 5m sub-cellar in the base of the headgear chamber in order to facilitate the safe
construction of the main mine shaft, the winder basement and the building foundations.

4. Excavation from base of Production Shaft Headgear Chamber to 83.66m AoD
These works will comprise excavation within the 120m deep diaphragm wall to a level of 83.66m AoD.
This will be similar in nature to the method defined for the excavation of the Service Shaft headgear
chamber within Phase 5."

Phase 7.

Completely happy with how this is going though.

ATB.

GK.

Then again with a later A to YL CF is saying there are still some legal due dily bits to the TorPs to iron out.

All be done when it's done is my thinking.

ATB.

GK.

Hi Cherokee

Having had yet another relisten - you cannot have too many IMO - Fraser to a LN Q (his 2nd one) describes the work on further TorP as an 'enhancement' but not a 'requirement. He also notes TorPs were primarily about satisfying the debt requirements, whereas later ones are more designed to boost equity and create value added - eg Cibra.

Also slide 12 says the sales condition re the debt is complete.

GK.

New one to me. It appears not even Paaa has this one in his extensive lexicon!

Adynaton: hyperbole taken to such extreme lengths as to insinuate a complete impossibility.

Hering a lot of that here on this 'seemingly' impossible Stage Two Sirius ambition.

Where did I come across adynation? Bootstrapping. Achieving the seemingly impossible of lifting oneself into the air by pulling on one's bootstraps.

Because bootstrapping is, fmu of what Sirius BoD are setting up, the self perpetuating process that will unfold once Sirius have received the commitment letters. fmu nothing happens that goes public until that event.

The agreeing and sequencing between on one side Sirius and on the other the commercial bank senior lenders and the IPA, aiui from where we are now is:

1/ Construction engineer advisors on both sides agree and fix the precise amount of the capital requirement to complete the build to 10mt/y.

2/ Sirius and the bank lenders then agree the total final number for all of St2.

3/ Sirius demonstrate to the bank lenders and the IPA that they are able to source the balance, ie the non senior 'additional capital' (= total final number - $3bn) and from where and whom it is coming from, evidenced.

4/ Sirius also demonstrate to the bank lenders and the IPA that they are able to source the first senior debt, the 'uncovered debt capital markets tranche', also evidenced.

5/ The bank lenders and the IPA accept and agree the deal and the commitment letter go out to Sirius.

6/ This gets rns disclosed to the market..........and this is where the bootstrapping process unfolds, as;

7/ With this rns comes disclosure that not only the $3bn of senior debt is offered and secured but also the uncovered capital is sourced and agreed - the total of St2 is agreed and secured.

8/ The market responds to this news - bootstrapping into the air.

9/ Sirius then go to those who have agreed to provide the additional capital to make it so.

10/ The rest of the tranches follow in order and the bootstrapping unfolds to its conclusion.

11/ Mine gets built.

GK.

"As far as I could make out, they only want to raise the contingency after the stage 2 letters are in."

Yes SM. The way some go on here you wouldn't think that is the reality within the plan.........as stated again and again by this BoD.

Horses to water etc.

GK.

Evening Fred I trust you are healthy (though not, with this, wealthy...........yet!!!)......We all know you are wise ;-)

John25 is JW30 from ADVFN. I think they are bored of the same repetitive (so called) question on there, so 'e's now over 'ere.

The answer of course has been outlined from the outset by the co. St2 monies cover not just the remaining build capex but also cover debt servicing until debt can be serviced from cash flow. That will occur from around year 3 post first production. Pretty much all here grasp that as well, but that is not the point of the question, is it?
LMAO.

ATB Fred.

GK.