Member Info for GaiasKidney

Hi BP.

This is serious. A serious business.

If this lot succeed in building this mine and retain ownership ...and if they sell the production at the prices outlined, then there will eventually be alot of profit to distribute.

Today there are still many ifs.

Please read what the co say about the project.

GK.

"I used 25p to avoid the usual allegations of "deramping"..."

Of course! Not to support this (tsunami of new issue) notion then?

13-29:

Thus full conversion in the near term (although unlikely 'cos the Conversion price of $0.30 leaves only a couple of pence profit)"

And, 13-55:

"my guess would be that CB holders will convert and sell more or less immediately- though obviously knowing that heavy selling will drive the SP down. "

Not at all because you suddenly grasped that there is no incentive for CB holders to convert "immediately" unless the sp puts them in the money? That only occurring once the sp move above a present 24.2p - coincidentally just shy of 25?

CBs will only be converted if the sp goes up significantly. For that to happen ST2 would have obviously been a success.........and no one will be then fretting about any CBs.

Examples, examples eh? Here's yours again from 20/12 for context and to compare with the above:

"A rough summary of the problem in cash terms for ST2

The company have said $3bill max " vanilla" debt,and ~£400 mill extra needed. IF it were by a placing that's £400mill/1bill ie 28% of the current market cap .At an SP of 21p that level of dilution equals a post-placing SP of 21x(100/128)ie 16.4 pence(leaving aside any "sentiment " effects.)
I believe that its very unlikely that the company could get a placing of that sort away in the current climate. But any of the alternative funding solutions will have a similar(or worse) effect on the SP , so IMV that's about the current level of downside....."

16.4p. So easy to come up with whatever takes ones fancy.....I find. Not always so simple to back it up though.

Full St2 package gets disclosed once all the letters are in. That slated for this month. Closure then follows by end Q1. That's the plan. See 'ow they do.

GL to holders.

You buying yet? ticktock!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ;-))

GK.

HNY and a good start to the year from you..........I like your ramp!!!

"Say, SXX want to raise the additional $400mill through a placing,and the SP is 25p,"

This is an impressive 56% leap from your postilated "16p" of just a very short few days ago - and where nothing has changed since.

I do wonder though whether you have massively changed your mindset on this.........or are just flailing about with random calcs?

To ask whether ramper or fool though would be soooo playing the man.............so unfair that.

ATB & GL.

GK.

Looks like a bit of allocation going on.

I doubt these give away prices will last.

Gl for 2019.

GK.

26/11:

https://www.geplus.co.uk/features/deep-excavations-going-deep/10037415.article?blocktitle=Most-popular&contentID=-1

This not our VSM then?

We should be told!!!

Movement on Service and Production shaft are prioritised fmu. They are long, long sinks. They are project time critical. 'First Poly' identified as most critical milestone.

GK.

Day: +0.7%
Year -11%.

Next year I'm thinking will be different..............Here's to it.

GK.

"be interested to see where you recall that from GK."

CF (to - L Nelson Q&A some 45m in) reminds that Sirius guided months before that the IPA were offering cover up to $2bn, so to get to the then $3bn target the banks need only commit to $1bn.

As of that wcast (plus the 6/9 RNS) the banks have provisionally offered $1.5bn and CF states that's the level Sirius have targeted. But he also adds that if the banks do commit more then the requested IPA cover will reduce. They stick to a max of $3bn even though there is potential availability to take $3.5bn and maybe more.

The duo Chris and Tom have categorically and repeatedly stated the senior debt component is not going above $3bn. From that and above I read they are pretty solidly confident about covering the gap.....and that the pain involved from what that pans out as won't be as the market is presently perceiving it will.

Have to see. Can people wait though?

Some poetry - a favorite of Ahab's:

http://www.davidpbrown.co.uk/poetry/rudyard-kipling.html

GK.

Hi Fred

It is a very pertinent question. No need for you to borrow any said hat - though I have a large collection always available!

A possible situation where the co would have to accept low pricing of new issue is where they have not succeeded in finding funding other than going to the new issue market. It that sense then those who are offering to buy it then have the advantage over the co. If us in Sxx out here also understood that as to be the situation then selling would logically ensue...positive downhill feedback worsening that.

I expect many who were in here have concluded that and sold....or just are not prepared to risk that that is the case...and so have also sold. The question to ask is are they correct, or are they just risk frit?

Though the market obviously was - and many here now seem to be losing their heads over it - I don't think the BoD were at all shocked by having to go over the $3bn mark for St2. Disappointing but it was always a likelihood outcome. With them also firmly sticking to no more than $3bn of senior debt be taken up (one of the BoD said more was available I recall) I also think they are confident about securing the balance. Suggesting to me they don't expect it all to come from new issue.

We shall see what transpires. Cool heads

GK.

Sept deal, China:

"LONDON (ICIS)--With the settlement this week of the long-term Chinese muriate of potash (MOP) supply contract at a $60/tonne increase, the global MOP market has been given clear price direction for the year ahead.

Producers now face a balancing act to supply customers in the two key importing nations, while also meeting demand for fresh deliveries in southeast Asia, Europe, Brazil, and further afield.

On Monday, Belarus Potash Company (BPC) concluded a long-term potash supply contract with its Chinese buyers at $290/tonne CFR (cost and freight) - a $60/tonne increase over the 2017-2018 contract....."

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2018/09/21/10261259/clear-price-direction-for-global-potash-as-china-contract-settles/

India:

"Indian potash import prices surge 21%

17TH OCTOBER 2018 BY: AJOY K DAS - CREAMER MEDIA CORRESPONDENT

OLKATA (miningweekly.com)

Indian potash import prices have surged 21% to about $290/t for deliveries contracted
between September 2018 and July 2019.

Importers have warned that higher prices, coupled with a sharp depreciation of the Indian rupee below the Rs73 a dollar mark, would sharply increase the landed price of potash and higher retail price ahead of the new crop sowing season between October and March...."

http://www.miningweekly.com/print-version/indian-potash-import-prices-surge-21-2018-10-17

World Bank Nov '18:

"New capacity developments in Belarus, Canada, China, and Russia are expected to meet steady potash consumption growth—global potash shipments in 2018 are projected to reach record levels in China and Latin America..."

http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/fertilizer-prices-rise-2019-supportive-fundamentals

GK.

Afternoon SL.....You never fail to impress!

Sooo...How gullible am I? No one need answer!.. There I was starting to come over somewhat sympathetic and chiding myself for being the usual cynic I am. Sympathy for your apparent sudden emergency cash need. An injury? A sudden illness? House exploded? Financing a libel writ? (Latter would seem probable??)

But 'no', none of that. 'Never sold a share' SL is....:

" immediate term, another opportunity knocks ....................SXX shares and I are going to have to part company."

for an............. 'opportunity'...................Very true no one can know yet how this pans out (or indeed other opportunities do) or indeed whether with this one we get a 'no news' January fading into grumpy history, But if this goes as I think it now will I am giong to find it terribly hard not to remind you of the hoary old maxim about these markets being a brilliant mechanism to transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient. ;-))

Good luck with it M8.

GK.

"..the real value driver is back to the $3bn debt package being successfully concluded."

Absolutely as I see it Lost.

But to reiterate: with the BoD plan how this has gone becomes known BEFORE any issuing goes on. I totally expect a significant sp reaction - in which ever way - on the outcome, with the success or otherwise (the BoD may not get what they want, but at present nothing evidential suggests failure) on the raising of the $3bn senior debt. My bet is they succeed. Then you get the issue - if a proportion is needed to make up part of the incremental capital.

Patience required.

ATB.

GK.

SL.

You seem to be ruining your festive season by festering in gloom on the present sp and attaching that price to any pricing of any new issue ahead.

If there is to be no announcing on the, or even an amount to be raised as new issue prior to the co announcing they have an agreement with all the parties that covers all the St2 need (the understanding of what is planned I have - do you?), why would the later pricing of any new issue post that event have any connection to the present sp?

Unless the co are not in control of the conditions and/or timings of this process ,or the offer to $3bn senior debt fails. The only reason I can think of that would encourage me to think any issue would go at or sub this present price.

Do please come up with your own. evidence appreciated.

ATB.

GK.

Afternoon Golfer

"Given that the projected additional funding generally matches the level of Contingency, is it not possible that any such additional/balancing funds could be dealt with later in the project. This would avoid damaging investor value at this stage through possible (low SP value) dilution,.."

The sp is already damaged by poor sentiment and uncertainty. For some time now uncertainty has filled this necessary news void that has arisen during the (has to be) confidential negotiation endgame. No one can be sure that this completion of project financing will go exactly as the project owner's have planed it to, but it has been long (3y+ fmu) in its inception, the preconditions are fulfilled and no one of the many parties engaged has walked.

With the possibility that any new issue covering a part of this financing would go at/near present pricing. I can only see this arising if the senior debt lenders - the MLAs - are in control of the capital markets with regard to what price Sirius may be able to sell new shares at and so may precondition Sirius's access to the offered senior debt on the pricing of any new equity. I don't see that hypothesis as very credible.

Fraser spelled out the proposed timings of the various elements of this financing in the 6/9 w cast pres and the Q&A. Particularly fmu that any issue price for new equity would not be set before the whole St2 package was sourced and agreed and argued that to do otherwise was not rational.

Cannot help but agree!

Staley - update w cast, end Sept - stated this all gets announced once the co has secured all the senior debt offer commitment letters. Latest on that is this is now due in January.

An RNS saying that all the financing (including required contingencies) is now agreed for this project's construction and the package also includes an underwritten new issue component that is agreed on amount (but not yet priced - maybe a very broad range suggested) plus also a future raising closure date announced and that within Q1.... And that then only leaving the construction risk between present valuation and the valuation ahead that will be driven by future earnings.....

Such new information may impact somewhat the sp compared to today.....................then again it may not...........but I (and I'm pretty sure many others) have got money on it that it will :-)

Fraser:

https://siriusminerals.com/investors/investor-presentations/stage-2-capital-update-september-2018/

Staley:

https://siriusminerals.com/investors/investor-presentations/2018-half-year-results-and-q3-progress-update/

ATB. This is in capable hands. Enjoy the break.

GK.

'Ere Chem. Why aren't any of the cars moving? It looks a bit like that scene from that Midwich Cuckoos film!!!

I'm nervous now about this new "P4" stuff - special powers? We should be told!
--
Have a good one.

GK.

That's most kind Alicia.. and please accept this diehard heretic's best wishes and hopes of a time of peace over these days.

Tomoz eve, rather than the usual formula, we escape by istead providing sanctuary (and source) for those who are solitary or just have to 'run' from the rellis/inlaws - and so are maybe not that full of joy - at our ('very low key 'C'ness) local. Looking forward to it.

With the 'Black Cloud' hanging above us All as we perhaps have our investing decisions dissected (disparaged? dissed?) by our 'nearest' (but maybe not so 'dearest'), I will stay stoically settled that over the next month or so this is going to progress in an orderly manor and also at/near to plan. My relaxed attitude to it (some may think complacent, not so, researched in reality) springs from the calibre of those who have what is needed now for this project: financial wizardry. No understatement!

Why I think this? I look again and again at the, what was no less than, utter astonishment on behalf of the oh-so-knowledgeable and astute finance journo brigade at the stunning sucess pulled of by these same people with the raising of dollar nine figures two years back for the first stage of this mine behemoth's realisation. Beforehand the corus was struck again and again that they could 'never, never do it'..................They did.

They will again.

Right....off for a sing-song.

Happy new year (coming to) all in Sirius.

GK.

"the market is usually right in its assessment of the fundamentals that determine the share price of a company."

Just one glimpse at the Sxx chart over virtually any period will tell anyone that contention is absurd.

Cold, frosty blue skies here today. A few welcome days off now...........and then things are going to start to warm up. Remember: the good stuff goes first and fast during the January sales.

See someone grabbed 100k before the shutters come down.

ATB All.

GK.

https://www.rferl.org/a/solikamsk-perm-potash-mining-fire-eight-bodies-russia/29671705.html

All sympathy to all affected. The risks are always around in this business. Ours pales comparatively imo.

ATB to All.

GK.

"..none of it addressed, let alone questioned my simple arithmetic estimate of the likely effects of a placing to fund
the "extra" £400 mill needed."

Ah but it has Casapinos, numerous times, but perhaps it's a blind spot of yours in that you are not grasping what this funding structure and timing is/will be?

For a placing that fell out of the sky with no prior warning and also if the money raised was for a bill that offered nothing to change a co valuation then your arithmetic logic could apply. In that the co Mcap before and after would probably stay the same. So the sp, and so the expected placing price, would be lower than what pertained before. However I must conject that to any (even minimally researched) sxx observer it has to be blindingly obvious that this not what is happening here with this St2 package.

The spectre of dilution (though not the amount or whether there will even be any) has been all over this share for 3 1/2 months now, added to that is heightened market concern regarding the viability of the whole St2 plan. This is market reaction, not any further change from the co post what was outlined all those months ago on 6/9.

How this raise planning, with its various aspects, is timed was succinctly and logically laid out by Fraser in answer to the 2nd Q in the wcast of 6/9. If it goes as planned a very large (and I fully expect transformational) project risk for this mine will have been overcome. Have a listen....and I hope you will be able to forgive Fraser almost bursting into laughter at the obvious limited grasp of the questioner when seeming to suggest the co will have to force a 'chicken' back into an 'egg'.........quite familiar!

https://siriusminerals.com/investors/investor-presentations/stage-2-capital-update-september-2018/

ATB.

GK. Off for a jolly solstice walk Hagd All.

Late night last night:

"Today was the start of a Santa rally....you heard it here first.

Here’s hoping anyway ha"

Bright new day:

:-)))

Hope? Pah! 'Appenin', looks!

GK.

A store of information providing a place of learning and the means to gain understanding.

Something I hazard only a very few of those presently driving this sp spend much time in. ;-)

Understanding examples:

a) Understanding can provide such insights as knowing that someone pronouncing that a valuation before and after a share placing must stay the same whilst that placing (were it to occur) is also occurring during a massive change in a project's risk, is just so much tosh(apinos).

b) Understanding that a present valuation is at around just 8% of the accepted present value of said project and around just 3% of the 10y projected value and that that is highly anomalous when looking at comparable projects.

c) Understanding that this valuation almost certainly arises from a market perception on project financial viability that in vast majority comes from those who are just not attracted to libraries, but instead see no more than a line with a negative gradient.

Ah well.

Nice and quiet too, but you can hear a gradually getting louder 'tickertytock'.

GK.