Member Info for GaiasKidney

Full quote of relevant bit:

"As part of its Phase 1 financing Sirius announced it had engaged a syndicate of banks which provided letters of interest, including JP Morgan, Lloyds, EDC, Societe Generale, ING and RBS. Since then the company has requested commitment letters from around 30 banks and is awaiting submissions, submissions were initially due back in June but have since been delayed and are expected shortly. "

30 banks! I expect this is far more than will partake in the end. Since Sirius have their schedule to stick to I also expect there will soon enough be a cutoff enforced, so that those who have not come back to the co by a given date will be frozen out of the opportunity. But if they have not got around to it maybe they are not that interested anyhow. So be it.

GK.

So it's difficult to discern whether trades are buys or sells.

Taufour put up a useful homemade app a while back. From that what trades are buys or sells becomes far more obvious:

http://www.luku.org/taunine/

GK.

Ooops. Forgot the Hawkstone deal: ~75m shares in Hwk. Val today ~£1.3m.

Thr is very well cashed up for the future. This is why it 5 bagged a while back of course.

Next run up?

GK.

Last quarterly report had A$2.439m in cash. Also of interest is options to expire by end '18. Some 50m at av 1.22p exercise. That will bring in ~£600k.

With Molyhil I'm expecting a cash/share plus royalty sale (re Spring Hill). Mick is not a developer and at present Thr is too small to take on the costs of even a minor stake in a joint build project. One of the major Thr owners has just done a similar 'step back'.

Price for MH? Well Tungsten is up some 50% in the last year, but Moly beats that at 60+%.

We'll see.

GLA.

GK.

Pesky weather eh:

"Storm Frank: Balmoral bridge collapses and northern Britain battered ...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/.../weather/.../Storm-Frank-as-it-happened-on-Wednesday-3...
30 Dec 2015 - Storm Frank: Balmoral bridge collapses and northern Britain battered through the night - as ... Simon King (@SimonOKing) December 30, 2015 ...

Storms Desmond and Eva flooded 16,000 homes in England - BBC ...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35235502
5 Jan 2016 - Storms Desmond and Eva flooded 16,000 homes in England ... to protect homes against floods in some parts of the UK, including here in Carlisle ... Residents are evacuated and some roads collapse. ... This included making repairs to Tadcaster Bridge in North Yorkshire - which ... 29 December 2015 · UK ...

Storm Frank: Tadcaster evacuated as bridge partially collapses - as it ...
https://www.theguardian.com/.../2015/.../uk-floods-more-gales-and-downpours-foreca...
29 Dec 2015 - December 29, 2015 .... Severe flood warning issued after Tadcaster bridge collapse .... the pictures on TV and wanted to help,” said Yasser al-Jassem, 35, a teacher who came to Britain in the back of a lorry from Calais in May.

Storm Frank: Tadcaster bridge partially collapses as Army drafted in to ...
https://www.independent.co.uk › News › UK › Home News
29 Dec 2015 - Fresh alerts as new storm sweeps in to already deluged areas of UK, as experts call ... Part of the bridge has collapsed into the swollen River Wharfe running beneath it, ... Sarah Toppo (@sarahtopping01) December 29, 2015 ...

Historic bridge collapses in UK floods as Storm Frank brings more ...
https://www.smh.com.au/.../historic-bridge-collapses-in-uk-floods-as-storm-frank-brings...
31 Dec 2015 - Historic bridge collapses in UK floods as Storm Frank brings more ... 1 January 2016 — 2:29am first published 31 December 2015 — 6:49am.

Storm Desmond: Pooley Bridge washed away by devastating flood ...
https://www.mirror.co.uk › News › UK News › Storm Desmond
9 Dec 2015 - Mat Hardcastle said: "Pooley bridge has just collapsed in front of my own very eyes. ... The Cumbria 2015 Flood Appeal run by the Cumbria Community Foundation .... UK weather: Met Office issues yellow warning for flooding, ." .......etc...etc.

G'night All.

GK. One cause for optimism > trolls live under bridges!!!!

That's where I met Rick Smith. July '11...................then added to sxx 3 fold!

Brilliant gentleman and you could grasp how he knew what was down below the NYM.

GK.

https://www.911metallurgist.com/sizing-mine-hoist-system/

https://library.e.abb.com/public/01a5d5aaf99873f5c1257dfc0030a320/WCL_Jan15.pdf

http://www.flsmidth.com/~/media/PDF%20Files/Underground%20Mining/FLSmidth_MineShaftSystems_brochure_digital.ashx

Where it's best to trust in the knowledge of experts perhaps??

http://elib.mi.sanu.ac.rs/files/journals/yjor/9/yujorn9p133-140.pdf

GK.

Now some 30% above the 0.0775p placing price. A VERY positive outcome some 3w on.

Mcap £3.8m. look at the project, DYOR.

Mismatch.

GK.

Hi Tobin

I think you can purely put it down to a market expectation of impending new issue. The capex requirement for the demo plant is now clearly set out in the recent SS at ~ $36m (SO4 Mcap ~ $60m). I expect they will build on the Mitsubishi MoU to get them to put up funding, but for that it seems very probable they will want a proportion of the co in equity.

The target of moving to production will then be in process.

The production potential has visibility certainly above 1mt/y, maybe above 2mt/y across the GSLP.

ATB.

GK.

Hi Lost

It's about trying to get a handle on what the bankers will take into account - ie only including that which has the surety from their view of what will pay them back, not what only might do. That being the contracted TorP. In this model I assumed that to be the Sirius mid target for TorP of 6.5mt/y and specifically not the 10mt/y Sirius have in the modeling you've flagged.

I also put in 130/t and estimated on opex + etc at $45, Sirius used the banks' suggested 125 and don't provide an opex + etc.

It's all ballpark stuff to try and make the point that the banks will be extremely well covered if there is a $2bn gov guarantee however one cuts and dices either the accepted central case or also when erring on a conservative take on the numbers.

Errr...that's it.

I hope you do get the point on this Lost and I also hope you're not getting distracted by.........whatever!

HAGW.

GK.

Reality for Brazil:

http://www.anda.org.br/multimidia/7CharloteHebebrand.pdf

p15. Today 9mt/y of MOP. 2021 projection? Import 10mt/y of MOP.

Harvest?

"Plant expansion to 320Ktpa funded and to be commissioned Q2 2018."

"Resource

JORC Indicated and Inferred Resource of 13.07Mt at 3.1% K2O and 2.49% P2O5 - weathered kamafugite lava located at surface."

http://www.harvestminerals.net/uploads/ppt/file/07001bf8744c88e67d41c12a0ce0c78e55529e36.pdf

3.1% K2O is one 15th that of MOP.

GK.

Morning Casapinos

To detail (tnx Myo): total build money required re 24/6/16 rns = $2.91bn. $1.09bn of that has already been raised via St1 leaving a $1.82bn remaining need. The co first proposed the St2 raise to be $2.6bn tot, so $0.78bn is also borrowed above the $1.82 capex need to cover paying off interest before there are earnings from sales. Note also money will be taken as drawdown, so that not yet taken does not incur interest.

Later St2 tot was raised to $3bn as an extra est of $0.4bn was added because the port facility is now not planned to be farmed out.....but of course this may now again change...as may other figures.

Myo/Lives/SL

Basic calc is conservative, an est from expected ramp up and excludes arisings not scheduled to go to TorP customers - they may not get sold (and reasonably concurs with the co's: "Capable of servicing ~US$2.8bn of dividends and/or debt repayments within 5 years of full production"). ....That also deliberately conservative (based on $125/t). The calc is so as to illustrate the particularly low risk the banks will be taking on if full $2bn cover is gained from IPA. From that in my mind there is a big gap to play with re level of cover whilst still firmly remaining within an all debt structure ...............Which afterall is what has been proposed and comprehensively adhered to all through the process.

Having to resort to new issue to cover this modeled St2 requirement would be perceived as a spectacular failure by this BoD since they have put so much credibility 'skin' into it. The resultant rout would crushing for holders - think July through Nov '13.

It's not a risk I give any credit to (nor have done since its inception), but if they do spectacularly fluff this then regardless the project would continue.

GK.

Data. From Sxx wsite:

" Sirius Minerals has signed major offtake agreements.. totalling 5.7 Mtpa...These agreements are for between 5 - 10 years. "

Assuming they can take this to 6.5mt with further TorP. Then assume for the various contracts an av time to the full delivery rate at 7 years and they have a steady run up to the full 6.5mt/y rate by year 4.

With that est the total tonnage delivered to TorP customers would be: year1=1.6mt, y2=3.2, y3=4.9, y4=6.5 as also years 5,6,7. Total to TorP customers = 35.7t. Note it has been stated TorP can go beyond 7mt/y if needed, so that 35mt has upside potential.

Assume Poly4 selling at a bit above the bank est price of $125/t, say $130/t (the co has stated the av TorP agreed price is at $145/t), assume opex + other costs at $45/t. That gives summed earnings over those first 7y of $3.0345bn.

Note from May pres:

"Up to US$3bn total debt
>US$1bn commercial tranche
Up to US$2bn UK government guaranteed bond tranche"

It appears the banks have laid out a condition that Sirius offer earnings cover of at or over 3x the low figure of unprotected lending of $1bn, if they are actually pushing for the max $2bn covering guarantee. To me 3x looks like a lot of surplus cover. So I expect in reality there is considerable leeway in the level of that cover despite Scimmy's "essential" comment last March.

Full quote:

" In order to fully realise this
transformational opportunity for the
UK, a partnership with the UK
Government, in the form of a Treasury
Guarantee under the Infrastructure
Project Authority’s scheme, is essential."

No actual number put in there.

I expect the only negotiation that will be going on post the final TorPs coming in and the subcon's contracts being detailed to the lenders, will be 3 way bargaining over the level of guarantee. With singed up TorP giving future earnings cover above all the $3bn requirement, the co having to resort to any issuance associated with St2 seems to be in no circumstance desirable and as important, in no way necessary....... on this modeled build budget.

But it keeps the board a'buzzin eh!! ;-))

ATB.

GK.

Aha SV!!

Another iii refugee.

Look forward to your insight. welcome to the asylum m8 ;-)

GK.

~43p is the price where:

"The Issuer will have the option to redeem all, but not some only, of the outstanding Bonds:

-- At any time on or after 19 December 2018 at par plus accrued interest if the Call Value of the Ordinary Shares underlying a Bond shall have been at least US$ 350,000"

This kicks in:

"where the "Call Value" means the value ......... as calculated on each of at least 20 dealing days in any period of 30 consecutive dealing days ending not more than 7 days prior to the giving of the notice of redemption." 3/11/16 rns.

I interpret that as an earliest date of 14/11 for a 'twenty day' monitoring to commence.

Those of a somewhat conspiratorial disposition may conclude there are some out there who don't want this sp going above 43p. But at present for CB holders if the sp does it's of no consequence, it's not in a monitoring period. However if the well flagged future newsflow pans out as expected I see zero chance of the sp spending any time sub 43p from the five weeks prior to and then through to, the 19/12 CB 'kill' date.

Staley said - 17/4 rns:

"This has enabled us to facilitate an orderly conversion for bondholders and optimise our capital structure ahead of stage two financing later this year."

I suspect there was sound reasoning as to why they went to all that faff. I also suspect full conversion (past 85% to 100%) is already priced into this sp. Quiet on that front init!

Countdown days.

Enjoy the summer.

GK.

Morning RW....and All.

Credit to you on your fund raising of late!

You ask: "Is this share derampable?"

I would consider that obviously it is - but not to much extent. The fundamentals rapidly reassert.

Re: "the investor base is totally different from any share i have ever known. The motivation.." etc

This is applicable to PIs who have stayed with it for the duration or have followed the ups and downs and have acted accordingly when appropriate, but also see sense in always building up again for the ultimate prize. But these players don't move the sp much, it's the 'fast money' lot that do that. Aisi they have been in control here for the last month or so. They don't particularly follow the project in detail so they will easily take flight on a well targeted and greatly disseminated negative (no more than an) opinion piece - what can be justifiable labeled a 'deramp' .........Recent press.

As for the follow-on here in the last few days? Some latching on to that (hoped for) downside momentum, some a bit frit and lacking in enough DYO imo. Will that amount to much? Fundamentals will reassert - newsflow ahead is well flagged and choreographed. So 'no'.

I have very high confidence (from DYO, not a faith thing) that St2 will be ALL debt, but fully grasp that:

"Up to US$3bn total debt,
>US$1bn commercial tranche,
Up to US$2bn UK government guaranteed bond tranche."

offers significant bargaining leeway for all of Sirius, the lenders and Gov, but that regardless it all remains in a full debt package.....with no hint of any sort that there is a fallback toward there being any gap filling share issue. Bar of course that appearing from the 'chatterati'.

I trebled up here in Feb/March and bar the odd bit of 'window dressing' I have no plan on changing that until St2 is set.

We'll see how this countdown goes.

ATB.

GK.

All buys this AM.

DYOR.

Hang about if you like.

GLA.

GK.

"Breakout_Buyers

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#RGM the reality gap just widened. What part of significant from yesterday's news did the market not get? Maybe re-release/repackage the news as an idiots guide.

Re-rate breakout suspended pending market clarity.

7:57 AM - 3 Aug 2018

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#RGM with so many interests/assets/investments, this should move significantly once reality of the value disconnect sets in.

Still primed in breakout territory!

Breakout_Buyers
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#RGM Regency Mines sub .6p to buy, ithe slow motion re-rating breakout continues.

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#RGM Regency Mines, how many mining/investment companies can you buy with a market cap of £4 million that actually have a producing asset? plus all the other investments and resource holdings."
====================
First sales figures will demonstrate there is a way to break free from perpetual issuance and the sp suppression that will inevitably go with it. Rerates tend to be very pronounced when these 'new dawns' are grasped by the market. Best to be positioned before then.

GL holders..........And those positioning now.

GK.

Opportunism from Crummy - I bet in a previous life he enjoyed lurking around in the park when it was all peaceful and then chucking a banger in just to see what would happen.........bad boy:-)

Reasoned and comprehensive rebuttal from Snowman.

It's all a simple question here going forward: if you think the co will get the extra 10 to 15% of offtakes (sub 1mt) in the next few months then from what is stated there is no uncertainty remaining that the banks will then commit to lend the stated 'more than $1bn' and with that the Gov then covers the remaining bonds 'up to $2bn' to be issued to the market completing the total $3bn requirement.........Then the project is fully financed.

If you think this will be the outcome this being a buy at this price is a given........and .......a gift.

Simple.

GLA.

GK.

Morning Duster

"Just more of the same but this time it's bl00dy 250m below surface. Think about the dirt to hall to get to it. Or go underground ? ........

You have a better grasp of geo than most here so what is this claptrap this morning eh?

OP mines many all over and far, far deeper:

The deepest mine
Bingham Canyon Mine, located near Salt Lake City, is the world's deepest man-made open pit excavation. The mine is 2.75 miles (4,5km) across and 0.75 mile (1,2km) deep."

http://www.losapos.com/openpitmines

If enough resource is there (not yet known, but 003 giving 2.9% from 269 to 284m intersection grades make for a highly promising start) then the economics fall easily into place to strip and OP.

But you knew that ;-)

"Twin shafts 600m deep........."

Funny.

GK.