Member Info for GaiasKidney

Morning Casa P

From your 9-22 thoughts - BTW it's always refreshing to see something other than 'happyclappy' now and then here - re in particular your:

"Reading between the lines and (in my opinion!!) I think the options are

A placing at a discount to the current SP with one or more new investors"

and noting that it is the co's stated timetabling that the commitment letters from those offering the $3bn senior debt component of St2 finance are expected to be received during Q4 '18, whereas St2 is expected to complete afterwards during Q1 '19 (where it must then surely be logical that if there is to be any share issuance then it will be at or very near that completion time during Q1 '19).

Do you think from that choreography and also in addition our presumed historical understanding that all previous placings by Sirius have been readily and fully subscribed, and so presumably there would be next to no rational that the market would then be concluding there is any remaining prospect of failure in completing the full St2 financing package, that is it then tenable (as you hypothecate) that "..a discount to the CURRENT [my caps] SP.." is a rational conclusion?

I don't..............But as ever we will see.

ATB.

GK.

In the pressy

GK.

This phrase appears a fair few times in the Prospectus:

"Stage 2 Financing is likely to be dependent on demonstrating sufficient
potential cash flow though a volume of confirmed take-or-pay offtake agreements satisfactory to the
Mandated Lead Arrangers."

I guess the co would be confident that that criteria will be met.........or else why bother at all on either party signing up to such contracts?

GK. TorP Clue in name?

Watched this with a smallish monitoring position since the ambassador interview. Looking more obvious now that the political logjam is broken. Aisi from that this now has had a large risk greatly reduced, allowing a far higher proportion of asset value (some value!) to be soon recognised by the market.

Been building here. Thx to those posting valuable research.

GLA.

GK.

A good stab a humour anyway... for this early in the day.....and by christ this forum needs it, eh Mr R!

Though continuously being painted as such, not all placings are negative, look at Euz (I hold), price has doubled in 2m from a placing. Depends what's going on, depends on what the cash is for and how it gets used.

Here I believe (unless there is now somehow a very unexpected left field muck up) all the shocks are now out of the way so leading in to a neat St2 endgame. From that the value should then be sig north of here.

IMO.

GK.

About 2p...........From a previous of about 45 to 60p I would suspect.

The co will have $3bn of lending bagged before any placing (one of 4 options) occurs.

More seem to be understanding the strengthening upward pressure..............but not all.

GL.

GK.

So, a rough 'fag packet' on

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100729/pdf/31rkpl7q8yfn81.pdf

Gives ballpark $4bn of Va value.

Parameters - very rough estimates

Drill area of drills assayed: 500m x 300m
Av intersect thickness: 30m
Av grade V2O5: 0.5%
Density V2O5: 3.4
V2O5 price 9/18: $47k/t.

$3.6bn

GK.

Very interesting;

"Jervois vanadium / titanium historical drilling programs have resulted in very high grade assays, and we plan to review this very exciting opportunity in the coming weeks. Global vanadium pricing has moved up aggressively over the past few weeks, with Argus Metals quoting the latest price for vanadium contained within ferro vanadium delivered Rotterdam at US$100,000/tonne at 20 September 2018."

Chart;

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/

Jervois vanadium assays:

"UNRC001 44 metres @ 0.76% V O(5)
UNRC002 22 metres @ 0.77% V O(5)
UNRC005 21 metres @ 0.62% V O(5)
UNRC018 49 metres @ 0.96% V O(5)
UNRC019 54 metres @ 0.72% V O(5)
UNRC024 50 metres @ 0.62% V O(5)"

$100k/t!

DYO..

GK.

Yes, now putting some back in at sub 1.2 - predicted in July when was substantially reducing.

At this better price speculative potential is very high with the right discovery.

GLA.

GK.

Hi OF

Go to source. SRK have done the basic mining modeling for Sirius. SRK are the 'Competent Person' in the 2017 Prospectus. Sec 9.4.

GK.

Now then Myo

"The stress at this stage must be immense."

Perhaps he's found an ideal way to avoid the stressful board meeting in Scrabo HQ....... Were they're soon to have 'Crusher Rinehart' attending. You not heard the tales of the way she rocks up at meetings with a large handful of macadamia nuts and an even larger pair of pliers?

CF: 'Board meeting eh?........Errrm,..... Just been on the phone, just have to nip over to Fort Worth, they really need me....again. Soz'.

GK.

dive!!. = divi

GK.

Hi Brad.

In the wcast Fraser describes CIBRA as having positive EBITDA but also as growing market share rapidly and also as having credit lines from its parent. This suggests that presently all earnings and more are going into growing the market and their regional presence. This also has to happen if they are to be able in the future to distribute 2.5mt/y of Poly4 that in blends would mean some ~10x the volume of fert they presently sell.

I would not expect any nearterm dive stream. I would expect 30% of CIBRA to be worth far more (10x+ more?) by y7 of the deal than what Sirius paid today.

GK.

Appols if already posted, but now on wsite;

https://event.sharefile.com/share/view/sd432f9c7e2041bfb

GK.

Just look at that recovery!

This and euz have been wild of late.

GLA.

GK.

Hi Ferret

What you are reading from brokers is what is in today's RNS...........Good advice is:....Av a read of the source material.

ATB.

GK.

Hi NE

IMV that's being prudential..........Glad he said so.

The 3bn will be senior debt. If it were to go higher the risk for the SHs of Sirius concomminantly goes up. AISI the primary risk is for a hypothetical where there is a severe cost/time overrun during the build. I won't paint the scenario of say a DMC cable prob (SNAP!!) ending up in say a 2y delay - as it can't 'appen right?!!!

With TorPs it now seems very obvious they want this contracting for its own sake (strengthen the business), not just to satisfy MLAs.

Perhaps to eventually cover a large part of the 20mt potential. Also if customers know 20m is the limit (any build beyond to give >20mt I reckon will stay in the realm of fantasy footy for a good decade or so yet) and the product gains strong traction (looking stronger by the day) then logic says the price will get forced higher. I believe this is the thinking on the prospect of the move to eventual selling at nutrient value and maybe beyond.

Summer gone, Summer sale season almost over?

We'll see.

GK.

Morning Myo

Re your 10-25 and St2. That is now rapidly moving toward the 'out tray'. 85% of contractor sign-off complete, TorP requirement comprehensively exceeded.

This ann today shows Fraser is moving well beyond what the co merely have to do to get over the line for gaining full build money. But he instead is concentrating on building a far stronger and better secured business where there are now down-stream protections in geographies/jurisdictions being put in place. What this TorP also makes obvious to all is that 10mt/y is purely a first phase number chosen for the financing. Pre-orders now look set to go well beyond that number, they will also have pricing upside flexibility.

With the MLAs Fraser made the point that there is no intention to go above $3bn. This says to me that he is now in a position to pick and choose from the offers - and though for now the market obviously remains fixated and frit on the potential of dilution, I expect that with this rapid evolution in this business in moving beyond the nearterm steppingstone of achieving full build finance, will also throw up a solution for the extra 0.4 to 0.6bn that will have a further significant positive aspect to it. So instigating a rapid turnaround in sentiment here.

Very savvy people. VEERRRY big prize.

GK.

So... Anything changed on the length (about 2 1/2 years) of this spoon that Sirius have chosen to use when supping with the 'devils', or is it today just a case of swapping 'devil' for a just a few weeks as there's been a bit of a delay in settling in by the big bowl of gruel opposite the previously understood 'devil'? Nope.

It has been known for a VERY long time that for Sirius to have any chance of retaining ownership of this through to production and then cash flow independence, along the journey they would have to risk the prize to the moneybag 'devils', unless................................yes, unless your dutiful and ever generous PI pays for it all. ~$3.5bn at this Mcap? Can't work. Fraser knows that. PIs should know that.

So if we think Rinehart is any worse a 'devil' than the banks then Fraser's made a bad mistake today. However if we think there is very little to choose from in that particular 'beauty' contest then nothing has really changed today..........apart from the adept skewering of any talk now on a potential cash burn to zero - new funds gap.

"Senior" = they can take it.

Proper planning and execution suggest they won't. Dunnit.

HAGW.

GK. ......Beer-O-clock.

What has this 'ere forum deteriorated in to?

Can't wait for this to retrace above 28.3 now (coming very soon imo) then SOMEONE can then move on to stage 4:

'denial > anger > bargaining > depression.......and finally > acceptance'

and then they will slope off............hopefully............rather than this, more desperate by the minute, continuous thrashing around......Though I fear stage 5 will never be reached.
-------------
Meanwhile for those in this a mine is being built. Money is being put to good use where it should be to facilitate as rapid as possible build. The rational route - the faster it's built, the faster the (in order of magnitudes more than total capex) earnings come in.

Many complain about La Rinehart's deal, but think on this:

1/ it got Sirius over the line with St1 (obviously that was not easy, we know the issue price, there were battalions of bashers);

2/ she is taking a gamble, once St2 is in place she is second fiddle if (a low but unavoidable 'if') the worst should happen and buffers are somehow too badly hit the Seniors (clue in name) take this asset. La R is left with no more than ransom strips - which could recoup at least some amount on the loss if subsequently the WS asset gets sold on to another developer. Third fiddle here? Obvious answer.

A little aside. Opex for 10m went down some $3.2/t last week, whereas for 20m no sig change. That's no help at all for a royalty, but certainly helps the bottom line for the benighted holder. Bet she did want a seat!

Extra aside. Bank St2 $3bn commitment letters come in before (that's BEFORE, in Q4 '18 and unchanged) the other 0.4 to 0.6bn is settled, then the whole amount is signed off simultaneously with any placing (if one) in Q1 '19. What price this sp with bank letters and the necess preceding TorP? Be 5 - 10p won'it.

Though the arrival at 20mt is put back a bit that fair 40bn+ value has stayed the same. A very substantial number to balance against the risk.

A lumpy road maybe but the higher ground is visible and being won. K2 or Everest not a Sunday saunter up to Ally Pally.

GLA....Inc you Andy.......Once you can straighten your head out :-)

GK.