Member Info for GaiasKidney

SL:

"The initial plan was to pay for additional capacity via ST2 debt and ongoing net free cash flow."

No it wasn't. I do hope you're not falling prey to the ever popular siren call of Revisionism SL? As if!

DFS: "Table 3: Capital requirements post capital funding period (funded from operating cashflow)"

'Av a (re)read!

DFS capital funding - St1 & St2 only ever covered getting to 10mt/y and with: "Capital costs incurred after the capital funding period and during ramp-up to 10Mtpa(1) [= $]176[m]" not even all of that.

So though indeed expansion to 13 then 20(?) is set back now from what was hoped for, money for that, as before comes from cashflow, but not before a higher level of debt gets reduced to safer levels it seems - which makes sense...........................certainly before you get anyway near getting a divi darling...I hazard.

Retire early? I'll whisper this just once: should've traded m8 ;-).................Like Andy???... He'll deny it. Ha

Rebound to continue imo. Note "Company expects to secure credit approved commitment letters from lenders in the fourth quarter of 2018". Before or after any pos new issue announcement? Issue price then?

Take care. ATB.

GK.

Low formed!?

" ...at sub 25p is a buy. A bit of a 'negative', not a 'take a third off the value, negative'.

Acting on it today."

This is a good project. Value will out.

Buy the dips. GLA.

GK.

regardless of the reappraisal - though there is much in the way of new positives re the project, has nonetheless been a bit of a net negative - this share is now on any rational look at the fundamentals and with now clearly lower risk, at sub 25p is a buy. A bit of a 'negative', not a take a third of the value 'negative'.

Acting on it today.

Good luck holders (in reality and in the end successful planning and delivery, not luck, brings this through).

GK.

PS: Myo. Steady! Do you need another holiday ;-) . Take care M8.

Seems to be a lot of it about ;-))))))))

Data:

2016 placing price: 20p............Glad I took it up!

Minimum sp post that: 16.8p.

Duration of period sub 20p: 4 months and 2 days

Average sp over that time: 18.5p

Duration of period above 20p since: 17 months and 10 days to date.

Average sp over that much longer time: 26.5p

Tedious old facts eh?

G'night.

GK.

Evening Myo.

Well, what a day! Shattered - number of trades in one day, shattered. Afaict the record holder before was........yes 3/11/16.

Shattered - number of post in a day here. Definitely sure about that one :-)

Shattered? Me a bit. Placing orders at ten past seven whilst three quarters asleep and nursing a bit of a hangover. Where's the respect I ask? Thankfully that panned out pretty decently.

Anyway having finally now read up/listened up satisfactorily on all this change I'll have a bash at your 'confused' and look at your:

"...what I see, is a major step forward.....no?"

I see that, particularly re project risk reduction now making St2 far more feasible. But I also see significant setback stepping. Which the reality of shouldn't be (won't be) sidestepped by the investment community.

1/ General project valuation - NPV. On the original DFS modeling by this stage in the build the 20mt/y NPV figure should be around $20bn. They calculate it now at 14.9bn. At first production (poly) the DFS said 27bn, now? 22.3. This I think has hurt sentiment for the time being. However of note is that 20mt/y NPV at full production stays the same at 43.2. However that's 2 years further on from '27 than as the prospectus p95 states (this doc now looking pretty dated) and that number goes on for 100y +.

2/ The other obvious kicker - one I was pretty convinced could be avoided, ah well! - is the extra capex combining with (imo sensible) CF comment that senior debt will not be exceeding 3bn full stop. But that leading to a far more real prospect of a degree of dilution to accompany the debt. Oh how the market so hates that.

It also looks like there has been a bit of a scrabble around to find stuff that has to be financed but can be taken out of the capex figure and put in as 'paid from cash flow' later pile. Particularly concerning/confusing for me is the MHF to port conveyor - ~$100m. from the 'Project Schedule' this takes a year to build, half that time being when full 10mt/y production is already up and running. Trucks and trains, ~7mt+ of product, over one year - 800kt/m in the latter half? The logistic on that looks very heavy. Unsurprised LN raised an eyebrow. I think in time there will be a different solution. Has to.

Re ahead? I expect there will be churn for a while longer after this, 1 -2 -3m? Then the rise will resume to St2 falling into place (not I hazard to as high as would gone to previous to this though). Then a period of building this mine where market boredom and niggling worry will in time get overwhelmed by the irresistible pull of Mcap towards those full production 13mt and 20mt NPV figures.

Takeaway today? It gets built, come hell or fury it gets built.

ATB.

GK.

Hi.

If you've observed this for 2y+ you'll understand this is still a risky share and will remain risky for some time yet. So on deciding whether to take a position you need to balance those risks against what you see as the potential from the information out there...and then act accordingly - buy none maybe, buy in big maybe. Or more sensibly at a judged chosen level that suits your risk tolerance.

One thing is certain though: indefinite procrastination will never secure any gain.

From being in year 9 here (bar the 500+ odd trades along the way so as to be and stay in a 'free carry plus' position), as then I see today potential ahead in many multiples of the present value. This potential should be set against a max possible loss of just one multiple when judging this. But judging has to be a job you do for yourself.

PDYOR & GL.

GK.

You need these:

https://www.buzzcateringsupplies.com/cut-resistant-gloves.html?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI8L3J9cOj3QIVUOJ3Ch0fXgi_EAkYASABEgIqd_D_BwE

GLA.

GK. Propper progress on site going on I see :-)

Hi HF. welcome.

"d) Just before Christmas, Stg 2 financing to be announced to the market where we get not only Stg 2 finance although [but also?] replacement finance for the Hancock debt (which we have hopefully never drawn)."

FMU of the Royalty RNS (26/10/16) the deal is done and remains in place, however indeed nothing has so far been drawn on it. I believe it is the case that not all the criteria are yet met to allow drawdown, particularly re St2.

In the RNS there are no terms stated for a termination of the deal, so if that were to be proposed I guess that would mean a new negotiation. A cash payoff or some such. How much? Who knows, but the impact on future earnings that should on central case modeling accrue to shareholders is very well understood - and I expect that is also very well understood by La Rinehart.

Cheap? Doubt it.

GK.

From the study:

"Forecast SOP Price:...A$667/t (US$500/t)"

Reasonable? Somewhat conservative imo if you compare to the pricings achieved by the small group of other producers and note the limited global supply of SOP.

Compass Minerals (based in USA) in Q2 this year sold SOP to growers at $644/ton (= $721/tonne) in N America and sold at $538/ton ($602/tonne) in S America.

https://investors.compassminerals.com/investors-relations/investor-news/press-release-details/2018/Compass-Minerals-Reports-Second-Quarter-2018-Results/default.aspx

SLP need a deal.

GL holders.

GK.

Hi Myo.

Well done for taking a well deserved break. Hope you threw caution to the wind and got in that sea - pure blue green, by deserted pristine silver sands and three thousands miles of power in the waves - an awesome dreamscape at times.

Re CB redemption provision, I tend to think the wording in RNSs has more authority and accuracy than that that's provided elsewhere from cos....And in this case afaict there is more detail in the CB rns than appears in the Prospectus.

Re my concluding the date of first potential share price monitoring re the 1.75x over par price criteria ("..Call Value of the Ordinary Shares underlying a Bond shall have been at least US$ 350,000..") arises at end Oct rather than: "At any time on or after 19 December 2018" is that I see that date as the first they can issue a notice, not commence monitoring if the price is over the line. Note this para:

"where the "Call Value" means the value of the Ordinary Shares ..underlying each Bond of US$200,000 in principal amount as calculated on each of at least 20 dealing days in any period of 30 consecutive dealing days ending not more than 7 days prior to the giving of the notice of redemption."

"prior to...notice" are the words fmu.

Of course as you say all bets will be off if the cash for this is not then forthcoming........but I think only the febrile here actually believe this panning out plan of now some 3 - 4 years in the making is not going to continue on its well prepared path, but is instead soon to be by some unspecified manor calamitously falling off the rails.

How unprofessional that would be.......But they're not.

We'll just have to see ;-))))))))))

ATB.

GK.

Yes indeed Lost, my mistake: 1 bond nominal value = $200k, equates to a conversion to 650196 shares based on the par price of $0.3076 per share.

GK.

With further discoveries (as we all hope) this has all the potential to follow a similar path over coming months to that of the likes of Solg and Ggp. This microcap - £2.3m - it not even featuring yet on any radar. As said: get 'em when all others scorn 'em.

Good 'progressing the plan' rns today.

GLA.

GK.

Hi Jim

As Stokey says it's an option to 'redeem' for the co. In this case that means a forced exchange of the called in CBs for cash at par, par is set at $0.3076 per each share a bond covers. There are 200k shares covered by each bond. The price monitoring for potential forced redemption can first kick in from the end Oct, but only if the market share price is also above 1.75x $0.3076 - ~42p today.

From 3/11/16 rns:

"Unless previously converted or redeemed, or purchased and cancelled, the Bonds will be redeemed at par on 28 November 2023.

The Issuer will have the option to redeem all, but not some only, of the outstanding Bonds:

-- At any time on or after 19 December 2018 at par plus accrued interest if the Call Value of the Ordinary Shares underlying a Bond shall have been at least US$ 350,000;

-- At any time on or after 19 December 2021 at par plus accrued interest if the Call Value of the Ordinary Shares underlying a Bond shall have been at least US$ 300,000; and

-- At any time, if 85 per cent. or more of the aggregate Principal Amount of the Bonds originally issued shall have been previously converted or repurchased and cancelled (the "Clean-up Call"),

where the "Call Value" means the value of the Ordinary Shares (converted into U.S. dollars at the prevailing rate) underlying each Bond of US$200,000 in principal amount as calculated on each of at least 20 dealing days in any period of 30 consecutive dealing days ending not more than 7 days prior to the giving of the notice of redemption."

Unhedged CB holders are presently sitting on significant paper gains, but with expected news flow offering a strong probability that the 1.75x threshold will soon be exceeded, those gains would then be in severe jeopardy. I expect news on finalisation of St2 funding will precipitate large scale conversion. I expect the market will readily and rapidly absorb the resultant new issue.

ATB.

GK.

If this can sustain above 1.125p from new discoveries and/or value enhancing of existing then some £1m can come in from warrant exercise - 11/7 RNS. This would keep the suppressive effect of the prospect of placings at bay for a long time, then allowing value on merit to be reflected.

To me this has made this worth a significant punt. Built up to over 2% in last 3m, wait now.

Get 'em when everyone scorns 'em!

GLA.

GK.

Now then.

Morning Verd.

Wording from 3/11/16 CB RNS:

"The Issuer will have the option to redeem all, but not some only, of the outstanding Bonds:

-- At any time on or after 19 December 2018 at par plus accrued interest if the Call Value of the Ordinary Shares underlying a Bond shall have been at least US$ 350,000;.........

where the "Call Value" means the value of the Ordinary Shares (converted into U.S. dollars at the prevailing rate) underlying each Bond of US$200,000 in principal amount as calculated on each of at least 20 dealing days in any period of 30 consecutive dealing days ending not more than 7 days prior to the giving of the notice of redemption."

Par is $0.3076, about 23.8p today, whereas if a CB holder instead chooses to convert and then sell the received shares on they will get a 59% premium to 23.8p. A very strong incentive.

Those CB holders who have hedged with an equivalent short (1/3rd to 1/2 of the total is estimated) may decide to regardless forego the large gain offered today and instead prefer to keep that steady predictable 8.5%/y income until Nov 2023, but if they end up in the last 15% that likely won't happen. An additional provision in RNS is:

"At any time, if 85 per cent. or more of the aggregate Principal Amount of the Bonds originally issued shall have been previously converted or repurchased and cancelled (the "Clean-up Call"),"

Re your Q. For the $350k provision I'm assuming a first permissible date of notice of 19/12. So with:

" "Call Value" means the value ... as calculated on each of at least 20 dealing days in any period of 30 consecutive dealing days ending not more than 7 days prior to the giving of the notice"

I get a max of 30 dealing days (=6w) plus 7 days prior to 19/12 for a trigger period to start.....30th Oct! Trigger price = 41.7p today.

There are some 1200 outstanding CBs. If these remain unconverted that would cost Sirius an ongoing $20.4m/y, $102m from 12/18 to the 11/23 expiry. I suspect it has always been the plan that the co want not to pay this cash out but instead are content with earlier redemption as the alternative.

Bonds are trading today at 161.35

https://www.boersennews.de/markt/anleihen/sirius-minerals-finance-ltd-anleihe-xs1515223516/115600690/quote

GK.

Staley's plan with: "..has enabled us to facilitate an orderly conversion for bondholders and optimise our capital structure ahead of stage two financing later this year" looks to be panning out nicely.

Buyers have rapidly moved back to ignoring efforts by mates of insiders - beginning of month 'bear attack' article - to keep this suppressed (that card is played, there is no credible other), but are instead rapidly buying in to the very well founded upside logic to holding Sirius.

I suspect for these remaining 'hold-out' CB holders Staley's 'orderly' will now quickly move to becoming a bit of a scramble as it becomes more apparent that the $0.5383 trigger price will soon be trampled under foot. The trigger period commences 6w before 19/12 - so first few days of Nov. Just 9w away to make sure you don't get crushed on the way to the exit as the fire starts.

Fraser and Staley know this game. Insiders don't always get it their way.

Keep an eye on shorts getting closed out to indicate converting. They're on the last gasp.

GLA.

GK.

Hi KoH

Have a scan through sec 13 of SRK's subscript to the prospectus. 10mt/y model.

GK.

Yep. Rebuilding now. I think the overhang has pretty much cleared.

GLA.

GK.

Today looks like it will be a distinct outlier on vol. Lowest for 1y+.

Waiting now.

GK.

Hi Myo/Chesh

This is indeed Fraser's and Stayley's skillset but I would think JPM will be handling most of this. To us this is very big, but to them this is another workaday bookbuild (offers assessed > best selected until requirement fulfilled) - which at present looks like it's running smoothly on, afaict.

ATB.

GK.