Member Info for GaiasKidney

Funny, I have this fantastical recollection that the co spelled out some time back how they think this debt payoff stuff should all pan out with a mixed balance of debt repayment and also a building divi payment once the project was at full 10m/t production.

Now from that One should (with just a few little sums) be able to work out that with some 70% of that production covered by signed up TorP the debt repayment part of this proposition would be more than adequately covered.

Where was that co notion then?..................Ah yes. P17 May pres with:

"Capable of servicing ~US$2.8bn of dividends and/or debt repayments within 5 years of full production"

and:

"Net Debt / EBITDA (amortising)" annotating a nice pretty graphic showing debt going to zero by 2035.

Then again perhaps here is the SOURCE and all that tosh from the co is just that...........Tosh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GK. Down the pub :-) G'night All.

LSE did. Good. Though with ADV you may have to join to read Chris.

GK.

Now... will protectionist LSE allow, i wonder?

http://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=26991046

GK.

Haha. Succinct and devastating analysis Myo.

I may just copy that over there..........where there is at present also some pretty good analysis going on...for a change!!

ATB.

GK.

NE. Like it.

Also don't forget all the underground roads from face to shaft bottom.

In fact on those criteria all the mine bar the ore cutting itself, the granulation at Wilton and surface offices is transportation!!!

So what to take off re capex? The continuous miners and a quantity of jelly - $20m?, The granulation plant - DFS has Wilton plus port at $237m, half that? Surface building not connected to transporting stuff - $30m? Don't think we'd get away with having the offices doubling up as new housing. But maybeeeeeee?

Adds up to less than $200m to exclude. Sorted.

Seriously I don't think Sirius BoD would have gone this far down this road if there was any real chance it's not going to be a runner. Still that won't stop those postulating a (whatever) further new issue alternative - however nonsensical.

ATB.

GK.

Hi Myo

You may want to read Mucky's 7.37 on ADV this AM. it's far too long winded to reproduce here and anyhow I'm not inclined to, I find it a bit bias.............But S/He makes the argument that there may be Gov reticence (and many potential factors were floated, some difficult to dispute imo) re the cover and the requested scale of it. If so I see it as reasonable that that will be reflected in the valuation here and will continue to do so until that is resolved.

Though it is most interesting to the likes of us, eg planning stuff, times and savings etc, those other project progress aspects afaict are being fully discounted as completely resolvable by the co. Right to imo. The Gov? Well, what to say!! It's totally logical on so many levels for the Gov max what proportion of St2 they cover. Logical........

GK. Messy world.

Morning.

Rising now, on PR blitz to highlight TorP being now at just ~10% below requirement? But there is also very obvious restraint on this going higher. What holds this back? First valuation.

With 10mt/y scheduled for mid '24 and putting a 50-50 probability on it being 20mt/y by '27, combined NPV now is I reckon at some $10bn. With all debt St2, full CB conversion and Hancock issue plus other bits, that looks like NPV of 130p per sh. Today's 34.5p (just 1/2p short of year high now btw) tells that the market is presently discounting Sirius's project by some 73%.

If compared to similar mining projects of similar scale potential and risk around the world when at a similar construction stage and time to production, discounts to NPV are usually already pushing below 50%. What is holding investors back? what's the trigger they are waiting for?

AISI Scrimmy spelled it out (re YE Results, Chair's yap) all too clearly (and perhaps with a bit too much of an absolutist choice of word....for a market of such a delicate constitution) and so then set it quite firmly in potential buyers' minds what is the most major aspect in this carefully choreographed (on the co's part anyway) countdown to St2 and so has consequently made the market particularly nervous of this share until that 'big issue' is resolved.

Unfortunately the co of course cannot easily 'choreograph' this other party - note "Up to US$2bn UK government guaranteed bond tranche" but will have to go up to "..ultimately Ministerial approval" - particularly when siad party can't at present even...how to put this politely?..................I'll leave (intended that) that for others to choose their words as appropriate. No swearing now!!

It's all about "crashing through the[m] barriers". Init Chris.

So far so good though....sort of. Next?

100% up on $2bn of Guv cover nailed anyone?

GK.

as of 6am tomoz. so will try with a few answers now.

Chesh. One winder runs two skips, in this case 39t. empty skip some 15t I guess. Example:

http://www.sudburyminingsolutions.com/wabi-ships-50-tonne-skips-to-saskatchewan.html

NE. Yes I was thinking about interference when they went to dumping the construction only winders (S73 PA) and install the first production winder to aid construction. I am assuming the placing of the cable drum for the first winder would have to be centred directly above the centre of the shaft to facilitate the supporting of the roadheader. but once production is reached the drum would then have to be offset to one side (~2m?) to allow space for the other drum to be set 2m to the other side of shaft centre to take it to 13.4mt/y. Two winders, four skips in a square, four corner pattern from above. sure they have a plan.

Myo/Dcell. Wsite is soooooooo obviously a v low priority. not that worried about that though. they have more important work imo.

Re 'little steps' and 6.7mt/y from one winder then it has to pay for its self from retained profit.....Then more of that from 13.4 to 20/ Haha, try selling that to divi hungry SL. He'll luv ya for it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ATB

GK.

Trust 'em? So what. trust no one!!!....But add in a bonus of DYO maths from the published data and potential can show.

So, back to A4. Say:
67m is the max thickness and in the middle of a pyramid shaped 'dome' of base 1km x 2km;
the visible copper is in Chalcopyrite (CuFeS2) ore at av 1% and ore density is 4
https://www.mindat.org/min-955.html

then you have...........................1.78mt of contained copper in that dome.....One dome.

At $7000/t that is some $12.5bn of in ground potential value.

Proved up and DFSed and ~$70m to strip to 250m would I'm sure, be found.

AISI the potential of the proving up process is what reduces risk, increases value and increases the probability of this, in time, being a producing mine......A very large one too.

We'll see.

GK. May risk a bit of excitement as well.

Re your Wed 8-20:

"I believe what the company put on their website until they say otherwise....and from the horses mouth it is

PRODUCTION SHAFT

The shaft will reach a depth of 1,594m and fitted with two Blair multi-rope (BMR) winders. Each winder will have two 47-tonne capacity skips with rope guides and be capable of hoisting up to 6.7 Mtpa, giving a total hoisting capacity of 13.4 Mtpa. It will have skip loading facilities at the 1,520m level and skip unloading facilities at the 360m level, where polyhalite will be transferred to the mineral transport system’s tunnel conveyor."

Do note now:

"PRODUCTION SHAFT
The shaft willl [sp] reach a depth of 1,594m and fitted initially with a Blair multi-rope (BMR) winder with two 39-tonne capacity skips with rope guides and be capable of hoisting 6.7 Mtpa. To increase prodution [sp] capacity, a second winder and two additional skips will installed once production ramps up ti 6.7 Mtpa, giving a total hoisting capacity of 13.4 Mtpa. The shaft will have skip loading facilities at the 1,520m level and skip unloading facilities at the 360m level, where polyhalite will be transferred to the mineral transport system’s tunnel conveyor."

'sp's highlighted by me. Done in a bit of a rush me thinks.

http://siriusminerals.com/our-project/woodsmith-mine/

Flying skip vid.........don't blink!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noEVqIbLIWQ

GK.

"Has Gina got a great deal or have the company's negotiations reduced the impact on shareholders?"

Both.

I recall analysts (Low?) at the time estimating the hancock deal was roughly equivalent to new issue at ~70-80p/sh on the assumed earnings projections on production and with the total issue then.

GK.

Yes. 10.5m added.

ATB & GL.

GK.

Morning.

Now looking much more positive here. Though major risk changing news - ie FS/JV - appears some months away yet I suspected interest was already building (hence a position taken 27/6).

If this recent sp rise can continue and consolidate at a not much higher level than than where it's just got to now then the co can expect some significant cash input from option exercise. The options are now moving to an 'in the money' position so could bring in up to some £428k in very timely funds to the co quite soon. Exercise prices are at 0.0575p and 0.075p.

I've noted many times that with a combination of a positive outlook on comod pricing combined with a growing perception that a small Mcap explore/developer is also moving to a period of cash security then profound rerates can occur.

Started here? Very promising project story. We'll see.

Adding.

GLA.

GK.

Agreed Tom. The T3 FS is about presenting your wares in the 'shop window'. Much has moved on since. Any serious potential JV partner or full acquirer will develop their own plan and they would be calling the shots on that if they put the capital in.

I would expect the deal MTR would want if/when this comes about would be one that would maximise a desired outcome of a prompt and large return to shareholders but also somehow retains a significant stake in the project so as to further benefit from the future cash generation. This is what I would want anyhow!!

This is a bit for the future though. Meanwhile the impressive proving up continues, all adding to the value and to the ever growing merit of the case.

GK. Took an hour to get that posted. DoS attack?

"If the theory that there is a huge buyer sub 3p ..."

Hi Tom. I wouldn't give that (no more than a speculative hypothesis) notion any more than a cursory observation - as with MOD having '90% certainty' of being taken out this year.

In the end though I think there is now an extremely good prospect that MOD/TMB will make the deal to build out T3 as a center of new copper production. It is relatively rare to see that outcome with junior explorers. This at present has the best chance I can find.

So I think any drying up of stock demand here at some randomly stated price is also just another forum notion........Buying continues.

ATB.

GK.

Broker initiation

http://www.thormining.com/-/thor/lib/docs/researchreport/SIC_THR.L_INITIATION_JUNE2018.pdf

GK.

"and indeed the D wall cutters have moved to the production shaft."

Not so certain of that from that pic.

Looking slightly north of east from the main gate (nice strides Chris!!), the main big crane is certainly placed over the N shaft area, but the 3 D wallers look more distant and over the MTS shaft.

I believe there is a shortish 6m? length of D wall to install as a launch ring for the vertical roadheader that is soon to start there.

GK.

Yes. Re:

"Net Debt / EBITDA presented assuming both a) full 16-year ‘door-to-door’ amortisation period and b) accelerated repayment, for illustration purposes only. Assumes 10mtpa run rate achieved mid-2024."

GK.

HAGWE All.

I've remained optimistic for some hours that someone would spot the little bit of crucial text that Milo added - not left out btw. A bit of text that makes one huge bit of a difference.

As has already been quoted, the co said:

"Capable of servicing ~US$2.8bn of dividends and/or debt repayments within 5 years of full production2"

There is no: "/year". The "$2.8bn" figure is the sum of the cumulative surplus cash flow over the first 5 years of production ramp up to the 10t/y rate.

The graph to the right tells you what steady state free cash flow is predicted at once 10mt/y full production is reached.

And a very respectable figure it is too.

C- for comprehension - all of you!! ;-)

GK. Back to the G&T. ATB.

Hi Hardy

'Gold fever' finally struck here just 48hrs ago. Thing is those who've been here for at least more than ten minutes and instead built a decent position over recent months when this was scorned by near everyone, know the newsflow with this is going to be slow and intermittent. So as a holder (of more than ten minutes that is) one then has a choice when the (mindless?...Discuss!) 'herd' arrives: just hold or instead slice some when the 'mindlessness' becomes most frenetic.

Meself: reduced by 40%, Including a luckily timed 2.285, and now hold a sensible size for a very near to now, free carry. Works for me.

This settling at a rough 50% above the base would be a decent outcome imo for this minnow explorer at this very early stage.

We'll see. Some extra cash is at the ready for the next news - when it comes.

ATB. GL.

GK.