Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
D_Jimenez_Sch:
" the fastest path to production will be from teams that have done the job before"
https://twitter.com/ACheesey/status/1671301154410725376?s=20
Https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/lake-resources-says-its-flagship-lithium-project-will-be-6-years-late-20230619-p5dhos
SW feel free with that 'indelicate' thingy !!
2 things to note
Friday's UT close was a high departure from the trading just before, mid was 33.2. 2 1/2% lower.
Dummy trades now for both buy and sell show that some of the trades allocated as 'buys' were below the mid derived from the dummy test, so in all likelihood they were sells.
At times the bid/offer the machine offers are a mystery.
With hard rock various countries are now banning export of raw Li ore (DSO) but AFAIAA none are restricting export of lithium concentrate (SC whatever % it is).
If Ghana were to mandate that only lithium downstream processed to hydroxide/carbonate or further was acceptable for export it would kill Ewoyaa stone dead for some years I suspect. Peidmont would walk, a Tennessee equivalent in Ghana would have no grant. Atlantic would only be able to continue with Ewoyaa as a junior in a JV partnering with someone who would have to stump up some 5x the Ewoyaa capex to build a domestic hy/ca plant. Or worse Atlantic becomes very devalued and gets taken out at fire sale pricing.
In all cases it would then be far longer before Ghana reaped any financial lithium benefit from their excellent resources..... and there there is a lot to be had!
FWIW my take.
Well Radnaksi further research and as I knew I'd seen elsewhere there it is...
"Upon termination of your employment, your options will ordinarily expire 3 months from your termination date."
Buried at end of sec 12.2 regarding ESOP options. SC's all ESOP.
Mind it's a 3m termination period. Some could well be in the money by then!
ATB.
Cont..
Labour: There is a surplus of skilled mining labour in Ghana with many young men having worked on various gold mines.
It is rare to find a country where there is so much available skilled mining labour.
Even the guys managing security at the Komase airport had all worked at local mines and they recognise a mineral sample when they see one.
Offtake: Atlantic has been careful not to commit 50% off the available offtake to any third party. The other 50% is with Piedmont who are funding the development of the Ewoyaa project.
Funding: Piedmont have already invested US$16m into Atlantic plus another US$18m for 22.5% of the Ghana portfolio.
Piedmont are also sole funding the US$70m capex for the DMS to qualify for their 50% offtake.
This should process 1.5-2.0mtpa for 255,000tpa of SC6 spodumene concentrate.
Conclusion: Atlantic Lithium is evolving from an exploration venture into a mining company at a rapid rate with Keith Muller’s recent appointment reflecting the move to production. We see the combination of skills with Keith Muller and Len Kolff as key to the rapid development of the project and the issuance of a mining license later this year.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Atlantic Lithium.
Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 33.5p, Mkt Cap £205m – Site visit comments; Stuart Crow steps aside as non-executive director
Atlantic Lithium report the resignation of Stuart Crow from his role as Senior non-executive director.
We understand from discussion with the company that the move is entirely due to Stuart’s other business commitments.
We recently visited the Ewoyaa lithium mine project site in Ghana with Keith Muller, the new CEO and Len Kolf, the Chief Geologist and former acting CEO.
Keith is focussed on the development of a DMS ‘Dense Media Separation‘ circuit to accelerate the move to spodumene concentrate production.
Len is busy on extending the lithium resources at Ewoyaa along with better definition of the existing proposed open cast pits.
Piedmont recently appointed their COO, Patrick Brindle as a non-executive director of Atlantic Lithium. Piedmont Lithium holds 9.34% of Atlantic stock.
The board also has two nominated NEDs from Assore Int. which holds 24.92% of Atlantic stock. They are Christelle Van Der Merwe, a geologist and Kieran Daly, a mining engineer from CSM.
Processing: The current plan is to use a very simply gravity process flow sheet to concentrate the spodumene to >6% at a 10mm crush using a conventional DMS.
Spodumene is a relatively uniform, hard and dense mineral at 6.5-7 on Mohs scale and a specific gravity of around 3–3.2 making it relatively easy to separate from the country rock.
The heavy liquid separation shows recoveries of up to 90% with low contaminants.
Test work at the Australian ANSTO facilities show successful battery-grade Li carbonate and Li hydroxide conversion. We have a number of Spodumene samples in our offices for inspection.
Exploration: The team are drilling some 20,000m of auger drilling with a further 6,500m of RC drilling as follow up exploration depending on the results to expand the resource portfolio.
A further 10,000m of RC and DD drilling is infilling and extending the known 35.5mt @ 1.25% Li resources along with a further 2,000m of DD for project studies such as geotechnical work.
Infrastructure: Ewoyaa is just minutes off the main highway from the capital Accra to Takoradi, a major port on the Cape Coast.
Ewoyaa is within 110km from the Takoradi port and is just a few miles of the coast. We took a local taxi from Ewoyaa to Takoradi in under two hours.
A high-tension power line runs across the Ewoyaa property giving good access to power. The power line will need to be moved at some stage and could supply power for the process plant.
Ghana has around 1.58GW of hydro capacity and two 40MW solar projects within 40km of the Ewoyaa mine site.....
AIUI they were options awarded under the Employee Share Option Plan, terms detailed in sec 10,10 of last year's ASX Prospectus. FMU in most cases these get cancelled or are foregone on a resignation of an employee, but admittedly it does not say so in the Prospectus that I can see!
One for a Q to IR @ ALL perhaps?
Giving up 6m options- worth some 1.7m @ sp = 1 quid- and has 750k shares.
Suspect there are already some selling on the 'does he know something we don't ' trope.
Tho I agree it's far more probable it's becoming full on at LAK to get the money to go beyond experimental. His job, his skill set.
Hmm.... A hint that there may be some discussions going on between say a miner, a gov and one or more refiners in a country that will have a source of material supply a lot quicker than will Morocco perhaps?
Looks to be finally breaking to the upside this morning.
It's the US that will soon be crying out for Li feedstock if even a fraction of that giga factory pipeline is built out. Will any production from PREM, KOD or indeed Leo be going there? All China bound to my knowledge. This I see as higher risk.
China of course also have a massive battery expansion pipeline, presently near all feedstock for present US giga plants comes from China. Sustainable?
No way Ewoyaa being a later producer than others will mean they suffer poorer pricing so later delivery is just what it is. As for when the big SP rise comes I expect ours will occur in the few month before genuine production is on the way to nameplate. Few will buy then wait, most instead wait for the action of others first. There is little trust.......Or just poor research and a lack of patience.
I admit to more trust in Ghana over other jurisdictions and deals with US entities rather than China.
AISI Most potential takers are blindsided by the perceived risk with ALL and only a few actually grasp the median upside here that will come with success of the scheme. Risk dominates upside.....and that is.....?
So higher sustainable supercycle pricing depends on a persisting Li deficit. Will there be?... Demand future:
https://twitter.com/sdmoores/status/1665633263753240577?s=20
Some 1.5my/y of LCE required to cover that, if from SC6 that's around 10mt/y... and that's just North America.
New supply future over next 4 - 7 years? Say?
Sayona 300k, SGML 600k, Liontown 300k, Leo 400k, Aus expansions 1200k. Any more? S America 500k SC6eq from 80k new LCE.... Total 3.3m. Well short. Canada step in by then? Some maybe. Ewoyaa can add a further 400k max.
So looks like supercycle pricing for rest of this decade is valid and sell side price predictions will be misplaced. The EUR deal with the Saudis- Sc6 3k floor, 7k top- (@Haplo clocked, @TORO grasped) looks achievable then. Is TORO's sum then for ALL realistic or just a rush of blood?
Quick FP:
Ewoyaa sell spod at mid 5K, @ 360ky/y (40% up on PFS). Revenue 1.8bn
After tax, royalties, opex etc. Say Ewoyaa earnings distribution 1.1bn
45% to ALL. 500m
Atlantic outgoings not that high so say divi to holders 350m.
Hmm... present mcap $230m.
Even with a 30% ALL issue dilution the sum is essentially right. Expect a lot less. Hooper reckons 750m issue by production.
Over optimistic? Not looking so, but only time will tell. Think on this though: typical 5% yield means ~20x upside. Worth a risk punt? In my book definitely.
News soon then!
GLA.
Pun intended:
"Under the terms of the JV Term Sheet, and subject to the successful commissioning of the Plant, EUR
will sell the lithium spodumene concentrate to the JV company at a reduced rate with a floor price of
US$3,000/t and a ceiling price of US$7,000/t over the life of the current resource of the Wolfsberg mine."
This European Lithium ASX:EUR.
Imagine that!
Https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2023/06/01/ignore-short-term-lithium-price-volatility/
Atlantic gets a mention
Https://t.co/8XyOIcITbq
youtube.be/uYBEDLBUEgg
The Assay, 9 days back.
There KM gave the same reason for ML delay - bringing in more area to licence - but then anticipated a delay of 'a month or two". From 4m 30.
Now looks to have gone behind their pay wall.
I noted KM reiterating the reason for the now predicted putting back of the receipt of the final Mining Operating Permit Grant. Mid 24 he said AIR, previous was 1-2 Qs earlier. Otherwise a very positive interview.
Https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/25/energy/solar-investment-to-outpace-oil-first-time/index.html
To be effective solar needs accompanying BESS..... a large amount.
You never know, could actually trigger a sentiment somersault.......
We'll see.
A 6 month period from MINCOM grant given to operating licence given that is.