Member Info for GaiasKidney

"..the Question revolves around partial or full processing and Govt aspirations"

I see it as a low level but still legitimate concern for any holder to have here because if the ML comes with a restriction that SC6 has to be further processed to hydroxide/carbonate in country (though Ghana would be very foolish to do that imo) then 1) Piedmont would walk and 2) Atlantic would have little ability or funds to build that facility so would have to wait on a processor to set up in Ghana if that ever took place.

With either outcome it would then become very costly to holders to get the mine built and little profit would be made from domestically sold Sc6 as the refiner would be the sole buyer. Ewoyaa would highly likely never be built.

However Ghana's significant take would also then never arise. With them presently under severe restrictions with the IMF foregoing that tax take and also the export earnings will be seen by the international lenders as beyond stupid...... IMO.

Ghana has a good record for not being so.

We'll see.

Deeds not words will butter dem parsnips!

Https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/core-lithium-short-sellers-hit-jackpot-on-volume-delays-20230724-p5dqts

The 'scare' narrative

https://youtu.be/cxEY4VyF59E

Priscila. Aye , listened.

For this co aisi it all rotates around continued rapid take up of EVs in the US. Looks around 70% growth this year over '22. ESS is also fast becoming significant.

The ore to EV chain will have to be built out fast in the West if incumbent US and EU OEMs genuinely want to survive having their lunch being totally scoffed by China.

TT.

I'll have your NPV16! ;-)

Yes from the q&a a capital shortfall of some 60m looks probable for Atlantic. This will become steadily required once

Piedmont have spent their 70m. The co look set to prioritise sourcing that say 60m first from a JV/offtake providing up front cash, then also possible early revenue from modular sales before the final bills come in for the main DMS and any uncovered balance then from an equity raise.

I think it would only be this last option where analysts looking at the cost of money would have any impact on what Atlantic would issue at and so the degree of any reduction of earnings per share ahead for investors (my favoured project metric). But I also think this is going to be a relatively small amount of money - sub 20m, maybe zero.. The majority of the capex shortfall I expect will come from the JV. 40m my guess. Analysts again may have some say there but when it comes to agreeing how many years supply of SC6 and at what discount the partner can get it will be the demand/supply dynamic for lithium and whether it's the buyer or the seller who has the upper hand that will be by far the dominating factor. IMO.

Interesting prospects here.

ATB.

In the DFS the 4.7mt of 1.2% secondary product was assumed to sell at average 190/t over LoM. Revenue 900m.

If instead say 80% can be benificated to a 5.4% product (4 1/2x concentrated) that would yield some 830kt of SC. If that sells at av 1600 that gives higher revenue of 1.33bn.

Worth studying then. Also worth knowing that potential alternative can be done as selling fines may end up restricted or there is no market.

Two things to note from the DFS:

The NPV discount rate was set at 8% as was also the case in the PFS.

The capital funding model uses 100% equity and 0% debt for calculating IRR, NPV etc. Table 23.

Should get the end June figure late July from DGR

https://www.dgrglobal.com.au/asx-announcements

End December was 5.37%. March 3.24

Certainly better than watching the sp! :-

Https://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Fastmarkets-Lithium-Supply-and-Battery-Raw-Materials/4567/2023-07-06/Volatility-ahead-for-lithium#_48_INSTANCE_puYLh9Vd66QY_=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kitco.com%2Fnews%2Fvideo%2Flatest%3Fshow%3DFastmarkets-Lithium-Supply-and-Battery-Raw-Materials

I don't expect bidding interest from the big players here - I also think nor does the market as this is so little loved presently.

The co have clearly stated they plan to go forward with the present deal and addition to that, to production. So any bidder would be going over the board's head and will only get half of Ewoyaa production unless they persuade/buy piedmont as well to get the rest.

Majors are looking for large production from large resources. It's usefull to look at what Albemarle are after. Presently they control some 300mt of resources and are after Kathleen valley's ~150m. Buying Atlantic alone would get them 17 1/2mt. A small poppy even with further exploration potential.

To me strategically for a major in their nearterm it would make more sense to take out Piedmont and Sayona (in the grant lucrative NA triangle) and leave Atlantic and the Atlantic deal as is and let them get on with it.

From what I agree appeared to be a cool response to the potential of MIIF investing, there will be no new issue on offer to them.

From that it would be very unlikely they would spend 30m in one go, instead build up a stake over time. Even some post production? Low relevance to the co imo unlike the ML, the offtake , the FID and whether any late dilution can be avoided via either the offtake covering all need or early sales from modular production being able to cover later costs for the DMS circuit.

And Youtube

https://youtu.be/tnmGtCpP8V0

Presentation pdf rns

https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/company/a11

Https://insideevs.com/news/674765/tesla-production-deliveries-2023q2/

Peidmont will be a major supplier to Tesla....

Atlantic will be a major supplier to Peidmont.....

No stopping!

Https://investingnews.com/lithium-demand-supply-pace/

SW.

Circa 180m capex was surly a cert? PFS 2mt ROM, capex 125m. DFS ROM 35% higher (flagged months back), all things being equal capex also up 35%? That takes it to 170 , inevitable add from inflation....

Damage to ALL is geared though as Peidmont pay a fixed 70m + 1/2. So now Atlantic to cover some 55m. There is no certainly that an offtaker for part/all the remaining 50% of production will be paying anything up front and if so one can bet it would then involve a big SC6 price discount.

That would dilute Atlantic's future bottom line. Alternatively it's probably share dilution to raise capex cash. Hopefully now significantly less with some modular* sales pre full DMS kit bills coming in, but I always expected some dilution somehow.

Appears perhaps many did not??

An add for the patient

*Was this choice a delay adder sacrifice for early revenue?

ATB.

OK finally got around to checking the Proactive chat with KM. He seems pretty absolute on getting early cash flow in from modular production.

https://youtu.be/NXxrXsTyceQ