Member Info for GaiasKidney

Https://www.modernghana.com/news/1270941/lithium-how-ghana-leaders-have-ripped-their-peopl.html

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Forges-First-Link-Of-Lithium-Supply-Chain-In-West-Africa.html

Here's an interesting quote

"Piedmont Lithium is also the second-largest shareholder of Australia-based Atlantic Lithium, which is leading the Ghana project. Both companies will take advantage of subsidies granted under the Inflation Reduction Act by the Biden administration"

Well, that would be nice.

Would need a bit of confirmation tho.

Https://www.ghanabusinessnews.com/2023/11/03/ghana-and-danish-company-to-explore-opportunities-of-assembling-electric-vehicles-in-ghana/#google_vignette

Https://www.businessghana.com/site/news/general/296322/Sam-Jonah-lauds-govt-for-lithium-mine-agreements

I suspect it's a few holders offloading having just seen the cash position (as of September end) and concluding there is a probability of a market raise dilution.

But have they grasped that MIIF put in their investment any day, Piedmont are paying half the exploration bills (balance owed 2m) and that just now Atlantic's cash burn is tiny?

Not that I see 35p any time soon.... unfortunately.

Atb.

Https://www.peacefmonline.com/pages/local/news/202310/494814.php

Https://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network447196.html

Https://youtu.be/Siohj9y5FYU?si=Vip6wsbgn-5lyVrd

Indeed Ainsley. Always I port to research where a mining investment is on the curve.

Speaking of such (I do love when something highly amusing comes up) check Mr 'last spin' on the ATM forum.

https://www.scotland.com/blog/caber-toss-scotland/

"Here's my suggestion for everyone's urgent consideration: If ALL really Is dead in the water, while Andrada is poised for a big move upwatrds..."

ATM went through the lithium filter some 30m back. I found it lacking then but out of curiosity I've just had another look. Prospects even bleaker now.

900t/y Tin production: AISC now only marginally below spot so trivial cash flow there.

Lithium:

1/ petalite: unpopular resource for concentrate, trading around 1k/t for 4.5% concentrate, 3y+ away from production.

2/ spodumene: drills showing av 10m at av 1.2% li2o, chance of enough to be economic, 5y+ away from production.

Financing: Looking and not finding co buyer/development partner. Can't anything but 3+ years of dilutive cash raises ahead before any decent earnings.

Country: Namibia cracking down on mining

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/africa/article/3239060/namibia-orders-police-stop-chinese-firms-lithium-exports

Further cost risk.

I won't be investing.

ATB.

This one:

https://youtu.be/m-HHZswHohM?si=miTJUWryctgO-P_Y

From 8m in.

Another thing to note on the depressed valuation is aisi there will be little in the way of any speculative takeover premium with Piedmont about to take a near half share ìn the mine a buyer would then find taking Atlantic would only provide a minority stake in Ewoyaa.

Situation:

A) https://www.flickr.com/photos/7294063@N03/5213877573 ... Low now, 1) rise ahead.... or 2) this fails? Judgement decision.

B) 5y.. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium ... Low now, 1) rise ahead ...or 2) fall some more/stay around this level? Judgement decision.

Worst time to bail AISI.

Optimistically both Hooper and Adams (Fastmarkets) concur on what the long term price for battery grade lithium salt based on a price that is both high enough to give mine developers the incentive to build more and also low enough to allow enough OEMs to reach parity or lower for EVs on sticker price compared to ICE.

They both came to ~$30k.

This would mean spodumene would go for around $3.5k in a balanced situation between miners and converters. In a growing market the balance would tend to favour miners as it takes 2 to 3 times longer to build mines compared to a conversion plant.

However there are risks, particularly with Atlantic's target US market. EV take up may slow from the 's' curve via politics:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12659133/Could-Bidens-support-electric-cars-tank-election-Woke-EVs-political-football-Ford-boss-warns-Trump-vows-gasoline-engines.html

https://www.dawn.com/news/1782279

But if regardless the demand growth continues and the price assumptions play out, Rodders' est of 200m knocked off Ewoyaa's NPV will be more like two thousand million added on.

I'll stick with it.

https://youtu.be/Z510LwhlTBE?si=KEHzfRCAVymKiv2a

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/10/18/why-lithium-miners-are-falling-behind-in-the-ev-race/

Morning SW

" After say 5 years if CAA Livista produce a GH refinery, spod door to PLL Tenessee and others shuts..."

In the pre signing statement by Jinapor from around 7m20 in he states: "where a third party/s establishes a plant the company will be obliged.. the company is committed to have an offtake agreement with one of these companies [ a converter] established by a third party."

My take on that is there is no commitment by Atlantic on the size of that possible future offtake and certainly not that it would be all of Ewoyaa's spod production.

I'm sure Ghana knows that Piedmont's further investment in Ewoyaa construction is predicated on a guarantee that their 50% offtake holds for Ewoyaa LoM and I'm sure they understand that if Piedmont walk it becomes highly probable Ewoyaa won't get built for many years and it would be highly unlikely any other buyers would appear to build Ewoyaa knowing they would have to either also build processing to hydroxide/carbonate or be locked in as a single customer price taker to an in-country plant.

https://ghextractives.com/atlantic-lithium-granted-lease-to-mine-in-ghana/

My main conclusion on the muted response to the ML is that most saw MIIF a month back as the kicker plus lithium sentiment is presently kneecapped - spod down 30% since sept1 for instance. But turn I think it will.

https://youtu.be/Z510LwhlTBE?si=KlFmxgMZXaeqP0j6

General lithium sentiment shot. There is still a long way to go for Atlantic.

Guess the pumpers, spammers and dreamers will soon wander on.

Hold and add for me tho.

AIM normal service resumed. No head start for the ASX. RNS here at 7. No plausible argument for a halt here, instead hoping for more detail on the ML terms and even though Ghana have taken more of Ewoyaa Atlantic's share only changes marginally from previous 42% to now 40.5%.

FID from Piedmont next reckon.

Open 0.255. Latest 0.33.

30%.

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/USOTC/ALLIF/trades

The terms of how restrictive the requirement for local offtake will be need to be better known and understood

Fascinating. A classic 'clap your hands in Trafalgar Square' from the co and the pigeons scatter. Not being deterred for long it seems, they are hungry.