Member Info for GaiasKidney

Https://www.mining.com/web/lithium-deals-cast-doubt-on-australias-onshore-refining-dream/

N2s PLL q2 report p14

"We are currently in Phase 1, which allows us to acquire a 22.5% equity interest in Atlantic LithiumGhana by funding ewoyaa’s exploration and definitive feasibility study ("DFS”) costs and agreeing to proceed with Phase 2. We completed funding ofexploration and DFS costs,and Atlantic Lithiumissued their DFS in June 2023. As noted above, our future equity interest ownership is contingent upon making an election to proceed with Phase 2, which is expected to occur in the second half of 2023. Phase 2 allows us to acquire an additional 27.5% equity interest in Atlantic LithiumGhana upon completion of funding approximately $70million forcapitalcosts associated with the construction of Ewoyaa. Any cost savings orcost overruns fromthe initialcommitment foreach phase will be shared equally between Piedmont Lithiumand Atlantic Lithium. Upon completion of phases one and two, we will have a totalequity interest of 50% in Atlantic LithiumGhana. Funding costs are included in "Other non-current assets” in ourconsolidated balance sheets as an advance on our future Phase 1 investment in Atlantic LithiumGhana."

+raising more money from energy minerals... mining.

"If either of those is not resolved satisfactorily, Atlantic are in trouble"

And so of course will be Ghana's ambition to be a part of the green energy new world. Or worse that ambition permanently killed off.

As said before (before the latest sell on the policy change from Ghana) if Ghana restrict the scope of the Ewoyaa ML regarding spodumene export Piedmont will not invest, Atlantic won't be able to invest, who else would then come foward after that? Ewoyaa will not be built. Earnings and reputation for Ghana both badly damaged.

Ghana is of course fully aware of that consequence hence in their statement* they are categorical about raising more money from energy minerals yet vague on the building of domestic down stream capacity beyond spodumene, who would do that and when that may happen.

This card game is quite evenly balanced and if played intelligently all three participants will be winners. But if played stupidly by any one all will lose.

*https://www.graphic.com.gh/news/general-news/ghana-news-cabinet-approves-lithium-policy-it-covers-other-green-minerals.html

From q2 23 report

"The Company expects no further major amendments to the application to be requested by the Technical Committee and has no reason to believe that the Mining Lease will not be granted for the Project. The Company hopes that the Mining Lease may be granted in the current quarter"

This rns (do I give a flying .... about copying from an rns? Errm, no)

"The Company confirms that it has been in regular discussion with Ghana's Minerals Commission,....... with regards to establishing a framework which is attractive for companies aiming to extract Ghana's natural resources"

So they knew the policy was changing then..... but regardless remained confident that MINCOM will be still giving their assent this q. Well.

The weak can leave if they so choose. I don't see the time line as being any worse than what was consensus yesterday.

Negative.

On balance I see Ghana now acting on revising ML policy for green metals and not vacillating with radio silence as a net positive despite the obvious lowered revenue to holders from increased royalties. Project uncertainty- the market always hates that- is reduced by a large degree compared to recent times with this new cabinet policy. AISI.

Been adding.

Also

""Therefore, mining and export of lithium in its raw form is a triple no," he stressed.

Mr Jinapor said the policy was also focused on putting in place incentives and measures to attract the needed investments, adding that stabilisation clauses, development agreements and other measures would be put in place to give investors the comfort to put their resources in the sector.

He said the arrangement would be done in a manner that would ensure a fair balance to have a win-win situation for both the country and the investor community.

"We will do negotiations on a case-by-case basis, and this will be within the context of this new policy," he said."

"For instance, he said, while Act 703 set the rate for mineral royalties at between three and five per cent, the new policy would see a different royalty regime for green minerals.

“I wrote to the Chief Executive Officer of the Minerals Commission last week and asked him to present to me a strategy document within a week for the implementation of the tenets of this policy. We want to get on with this as quickly as possible,” the minister said

Policy implications

"For some reasons, I will not give the rate for green mineral royalties yet, but suffice to say that it is going to be higher than what we have now relating to gold. The point is that we will have a different royalty regime for green minerals as opposed to gold and others," Mr Jinapor said.

The minister also said the new policy would insist on a higher level of local participation in the green minerals value chain as opposed to the 10 per cent vested interest the state had currently in mining entities.

"We will insist on a certain minimum Ghanaian participation that will obviously be more and better than the 10 per cent. I am reluctant to put specific figures out now on this. There is a Cabinet decision on a baseline, and we will not go below that in any negotiation for our lithium and other green minerals," he said"

Genuine action

Https://www.graphic.com.gh/news/general-news/ghana-news-cabinet-approves-lithium-policy-it-covers-other-green-minerals.html

"Ghana approved a green-minerals policy to help manage the exploitation and production of lithium, a step toward tapping into the multibillion-dollar global industry.

The cabinet approved the policy document on July 27, Lands and Natural Resources Minister Samuel Jinapor said in an interview.

It is expected to be passed by parliament before the end of the year, and will provide clear guidelines and a fiscal regime for mining so-called green minerals in a manner that ensures Ghana derives as much benefit as possible from its resources"

Most interesting LT.

"The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reports that 34,712 new plug-in cars were registered last month (85 percent more than a year ago). This result represents about 24.1 percent of the total volume (it was 16.7 percent a year ago).

"In the case of BEVs, SMMT noted that one new BEV was registered every 60 seconds by year's end. In 2024, this metric is expected to reach one new BEV every 40 seconds"

https://insideevs.com/news/680372/uk-plugin-car-sales-july2023/

Demand is there and increasing for the products of the new energy transition. With that those have the materials supply at what ever stage they choose to process them to can be certain of large financial gains for many many years to come...... if they choose to develop them that is.

A more comprehensive article on Ghana's mining law and the artisanal space

https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage//Galamsey-having-serious-effect-on-our-environment-and-communities-1764794

First two news hits with 'artisanal mining ghana'

https://theconversation.com/ghanas-artisanal-miners-are-a-law-unto-themselves-involving-communities-can-help-fix-the-problem-192256

https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/british-foreign-secretary-launches-5m-uk-ghana-gold-mining-program-in-africa-visit-3667994

No relevant hits found regarding specifically lithium with the news serch 'artisanal lithium mining ghana'

Little doubt Ghana will monitor for that in the future, but I can't see how such a possibility would adversely influence decision making on Atlantic's licence.

NH when licence consolidation first mentioned in rns, 20 June

"We also await approval of the consolidation of the licence covering the proposed mine and processing plant site, which was undertaken to facilitate a smoother approvals process and simplified operational structure, as advised by Ghana's Minerals Commission Technical Committee.

"The Company expects no further major amendments to the application, so believes that the Mining Lease will be granted for the Project in the coming months"

From QAR to June, now 5 weeks on

"Mining Lease Update

The Company currently awaits the approval of the consolidation of the Mankessim and Mankessim South licences, which covered the proposed mine and processing plant site, into the single Mankessim licence. This was undertaken following guidance from Ghana's Minerals Commission Technical Committee in order to facilitate a smoother approvals process for the Mining Lease application and to establish a simplified operational structure.

As part of this process, the Company took the opportunity to implement optimisations based on the finalised plant flowsheet into its Mining Lease application. The revised Mining Lease application now also includes the addition of deposits that were sitting outside of the mine plan in the initial application submitted.

Upon approval of the mining licence consolidation, the Company will submit the revised application for a Mining Lease for the Project.

The Company expects no further major amendments to the application to be requested by the Technical Committee and has no reason to believe that the Mining Lease will not be granted for the Project. The Company hopes that the Mining Lease may be granted in the current quarter"

The updated ML application has been completed for some time and it is probable MINCOM has also had informal view of this for a while. It would be easy to speculate that if there are delays they are not of MINCOM's doing. But also equally this can just be 'process'.

Can still happen this q aisi.

Https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/plummeting-production-at-igo-and-tianqis-kwinana-refinery-show-australias-lithium-refining-challenge-c-11442182

Until you've learnt to walk.

With the present Ghana mining policy what will Ghana get from a producing Ewoyaa?

Income

Say steady state production of 350kt/y from Ewoyaa = 1.225bn revenue

Ghana 5% royalty on sales = 61m/y

AISC = 610/t so cash flow for Ewoyaa around 1.02bn, est profit before tax at 850m.

Ghana 30% corporation tax = 255m/y

Distribution to Ewoyaa's owners est 550m/y.

Ghana own 10% = 55m

Asset

Ewoyaa fair value with LoM 12y and so PER of 5 with 850m earnings = 4.25bn

Ghana 10% = 425m.

Potential additional MIIF interest at say 5% of Ewoyaa = 213m plus annual distribution of 27m.

Rough estimates but not to be sniffed at imo.

Well. MINCOM about to announce?

Re achieved sc6 prices SIGMA just shipped its first 30k and realised 3.5k/t. All went to China.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sigma-lithium-ships-30-000-tonnes-of-battery-grade-lithium-and-by-products-achieves-net-zero-carbon-operating-profitability-and-premium-pricing-301885762.html

Two points on my thinking:

-AFAIAA no country with actual or potential spodumene resorces has restricted export of that lithium as concentrate and has instead mandated it is further procesed to hydroxide or carbonate.

-If Ghana do insist on such a conditional on granting an ML to Atlantic neither Atlantic nor Piedmont will proceed. The ore will stay in the ground, no earnings will arise for either co or for Ghana.

It may be an ambition but I would argue establishig the mine with unrestricted export of lithium concentrate spodumene will have to come first.

The logic aisi.

ATB

Https://youtu.be/l-C1mK4F20I