Member Info for GaiasKidney

"A11 ATLANTIC LITHIUM LIMITED.

New Battery Elements - Overnight Price: $0.62

Wilsons rates ((A11)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Wilsons has hired a new analyst and initiated coverage on Australian lithium companies. The obvious observation is to refer to the -50% drop in Chinese prices in 2023, which allows for three positive initiations out of five.

We're in this for the long haul, Wilsons exclaims, let's not get sidetracked by short term sentiment and stocking cycles!

The key sentence that explains it all: "we remain principally focussed on the longer term structural thematic drivers, and are confident that the low-carbon energy transition will drive expected compounding deficits in supply over the coming decades, which will underpin robust pricing over the longer term."

Wilsons initiates coverage of Atlantic Lithium with an Overweight rating and price target of $1.10.

This report was published on May 8, 2023.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.475

If A11 meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June"

https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2023/05/12/australian-broker-call-extra-edition-may-12-2023/

There are 3 posters here all with a similar agenda. They all also have their posting history unaccessible.

Why is this?

Hi.

If management were shortsighted they could indeed easily cash in today with large gains for them by agreeing to one of the many informal offers of interest already received. With acceptance from IIs and just 7% of retail they could sell out at 50p, 70p if they were thinking that way. Thankfully for those instead here looking for sustained madium/longterm and large gains over many years and not a fast buck that presently would never be more than a bag (a 5 bag before getting DFS, all MLs and that also would have to be pre Peidmont's FID and 1/2 share buy-in is fantasy imo), management clearly want to be the joint owners as they take this to production. I expect the FID and buy-in to coincide with the final part of the ML. Once that happens no hostile t/o can work without taking both cos.

With present and ever growing spodumene demand I see little prospect of pricing over many future years being less than today's ~4k. Agree N2S, excellent divi potential ahead here, reckon 15, 20p/y with the existing plan and that pricing.

I see Peidmont as more probable as a target than Atlantic from their strategic position being rapidly built up in the US. This could change the deal.

We'll see.

The bigger picture is becoming interesting.

Lowry on this merger:

'Creat a slow moving asset heavy, execution light major '

https://twitter.com/globallithium/status/1656228391379431426?s=20

Slowing up the supply of new lithium from larger more powerful producers then! All adds to the deficit driven supercycle future for miners.

.

Worth a read as we wait

https://aheadoftheherd.com/all-signs-point-to-the-early-stages-of-a-new-commodity-supercycle-richard-mills/

Have just broken ground at Corpas Christi Texas. Stated as producing battery grade lithium for 1m evs by 2025.

Typical Tesla ev needs around 10kg of lithium that requires approx 60kg of LCE which in turn requires some 450kg of SC6.... 450kt/y of SC6, one factory. 15x is planned across NA as supplying battery grade by 2030.

No spike

2 to ponder

Prediction:

'Global EV sales will reach 80% share by q4 2025' OEM CEO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHUIEg6kw4k

Just happended:

US EV sales up 66% q1 23 vs q1 22

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/04/27/us-electric-vehicle-sales-up-66-in-1st-quarter/

Revolutions tend to move far faster than futurists can ever imagine.

Best get digging.

Yes Mike.

The pattern is shown with non Aus. Ca, Atacama cos coming to production: eg Sigma, Premier and Kodal. All showing some earlier substantial rises but only rising to a value reflecting the imminent earnings when within months of that cash flow coming in.

I see the reasons for a big part of this being not just conceived (misconceived) country risk but also a largely held belief that supercycle lithium pricing will not hold and is just a spike.

How wrong they are.

This is a two + year hold to get full value IMO.

ATB.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOmS-yRqWmk

Atlantic discussed late on. Thinking is completion of licencing early '24. Highly positive on relationship.

Hooper and Fast Markets

https://t.co/70yAeV9p45

Bring on the ML here. Primary clincher.

HAGWE

What always keeps me amused is that bashers that obviously have very little knowledge about cos think that those holding have even less.

Keep it up. Nice to have some entertainment as we wait.

https://twitter.com/globallithium/status/1650469415958245376?s=20

!

I suspect all the crucial events we wait for external to the co will depend on the publication of the DFS . Flagged for end q2. With that I also anticipate a rise in Ewoyaa capex and Atlantic's share to go to 40 to 50m.

I don't think they will have any worries over cash needs to cover that. It can happen post ML, MIIF initial, PLL FID....

Worth highlighting those numbers though.

SC6 1359/t, RoM 2mt/y...... LoM revenue $4.84bn (PFS)

SC6 1600, RoM 2mt/y, sales 255kt.......revenue $5.7bn over 12y LoM. 475m/y

SC6 1600, RoM up 50% to 3mt/y, sales 380kt..... 715m/y

SC6 3x higher @ 4800, RoM 3m, sales 380kt....... 2.15bn/y

Buy the dips.

Tnx for calcs haggis.

Looking forward to the DFS figure for RoM for Ewoyaa, an uplift of 35 to 50% on the 2mt/y has already been flagged by Atlantic.

This will be a number of more solidity for the project than the inevitably existential SC6 price. However with that we can all see how it will be ahead: US ev demand growth exploding, huge battery plant expansion, first LoH plants are our downstream customers - Peidmont/Tesla. Combine that with Ewoyaa being one of the very few mines globally that will be coming on in the next year or so and that how it takes so long to get other needed lithium mines to production and supply qualification and you have the perfect pricing supercycle storm.

Yes the DFS with little doubt will have a conservative figure for SC6 little different from that in the PFS but I would suggest it will be totally justifiable to assume outcomes of av 3x that over much of the LoM in one's value calculations here.

Just a few more boxes to tick.

Be a good idea for Atlantic to handmedown them geophones to our kid FRG after their done with. Reckon.

Confusion? Misleading? Other reason?

https://twitter.com/globallithium/status/1647978609053769731?s=20

On the turn though.

https://twitter.com/LithiumIonBull/status/1647939369175490569?s=20

March 8th 14-10 UK time Blue Orca published their 'research'. A day of infamy!

Sp then 37.05 to 37.2.

Finally cleared.

Next? High of 67p, 12m back.

GLA.