Member Info for GaiasKidney

30s.

Curious trading. Has someone been given the nod I wonder?

In 29s

https://twitter.com/globallithium/status/1646552165773889536?s=20

Rise here an outlier so far.

"Under the EPA proposal, automakers are forecast to produce 60% EVs by 2030 and 67% by 2032 to meet requirements - compared with just 5.8% of U.S. vehicles sold in 2022 that were EVs."

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-proposes-56-vehicle-emissions-cut-by-2032-requiring-big-ev-jump-2023-04-12/

https://twitter.com/HDCCreative/status/1645970307776389122?s=20

The Aus are tough...But it's a big un.

Re mining. Looks like a lot of iron ore will get hit. Lithium is Pilbara's, south of PH, more off track.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-10/potential-cyclone-ilsa-brewing-off-wa-as-bom-warnings-issued/102196060

High rainfall could halt open pit for extended periods.

Stay safe WA

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/08/epa-reportedly-planning-to-announce-significant-limits-on-tailpipe-emissions.html

Sticks to go with the carrots in the US of A.

https://youtu.be/w_rHCfniQmA

Recorded 2/4

Just did a quick calc and Ewoyaa's present valuation per LCEeq MRE comes out around $160/t. Compare and contrast with the few other nearterm producers never mind that low low C and O for Ewoyaa.

High cost converters are already shuttering it seems. The floor for domestic china Li2CO3 is forming. That at around 60 to 65% down from the peak. But if you look at seaborne hydroxide, the basis for Ewoyaa SC6 pricing, it is only some half as much down from the peak. The disconnect has grown hugely. Hydroxide stays high.

When you look at Ewoyaa's incredibly low capex/opex and compare to the large number of present and wannabe producers out there then once running Ewoyaa looks like a bullet proof survivor in virtually any market.

I see project failure through licence issue or commissioning technical as now pretty low risk. The major risk I see is Atlantic receiving a knockout offer they cannot resist before true value is realised. With the settling of SC6 in a 2.5 to 4k range which now looks highly probable in this supercycle era it would be beyond irritating to see the resulting ten+ bagger from that going elsewhere.

IMO.

AH not using her own funding here but instead funded by the co's EESOP:

"Any other information the entity wishes to provide about the +securities to be quoted
Issued as loan funded shares under the Company¿s Employee and Executive Share Option Plan as part of the
employees¿ remuneration package with the Company."

12.55 RNS

https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/company/a11

To my thinking this is demonstrating even higher confidence with Ewoyaa by her borrowing >1m from the co rather than using her own cash.

Little doubt the SWAT was done and the possible outcome where personal wipe out and more could occur was pointed out.
Re scenario: no Ewoyaa for Atlantic > ALL collapses to minnow valuation and is skint > ALL board pushes to have loans repaid > AH's shares have little value > AH faces personal bankruptcy.............. and dismisses all that and goes ahead.

I don't think there will be any significant upside with AH's new holding until the right things happen, the stand out being the ML. Would you risk so much without a near absolute certainty of the positive outcome? Insider knowledge!

And some balls.

Such a great project.

DYO

AH just converted 3.5m 30p options when out of the money.

https://news.metal.com/newscontent/102159025/ganfeng-lithium-denies-rumours-that-a-price-floor-was-set-for-lithium-carbonate-to-stem-its-drop

Looks that Hainan are to take the remaining 49% there, it's their style. <50% premium gain from here for KOD holders? Doubt they would spend more.

Not an outcome I would want to see here. Lucky the co here is also stating they want to remain their own bosses and retain their asset share to production. It's where the real gains are. Guess short-termists looking for a fast buck will have to look elsewhere. ;-/

And Hooper on Li ion volume for 23

https://twitter.com/RodneyHooper13

DYOR

https://www.batterymaterialsreview.com/ourblogs/why-i-think-lithium-prices-will-bounce/

Typo error
DSO 427500 X 500 = 214M
So total 1667m.

The strong hint that the DFS will propose a 35 to 50% uplift in the RoM compared to the PFS encourages a recalc for the project.

This for stage one of the mining plan (guess first two years) selling SC6 (though more likely SC5.5%) and DSO fines. Assume production being the mid of 35 and 50% gives SC6eq@ 255kt/y x 1.425 = 363kt/y and DSO @300kt/y x 1.425 = 427kt/y.

Pricing will be what it is but today it looks to be nearing a floor for now. SC6 $4300/t

https://twitter.com/CheetahIndustry

Choose 4k and 500 for fines

Revenue for Ewoyaa per year
SC6 363000 x 4000 = 1453m
DSO 427500 x 500 = 124m
Total = 1577m
- Royalties from that.
Take off opex at expect say 300/t = 109m
Then taxes etc.
It's circa 1bn to Ewoyaa's bottom line.
Atlantic gets 45%.
And Ghana gets some 600m direct plus indirect.

ML please ;-)

Neil now really in command of his subject........ though I think someone needs to whisper in his ear that... um ... Liz has shuffled off......!

"How was this calibre so derailed......"

Morning SW. Not derailed.

Why this happened my thinking is that there was a period of high enthusiasm combined with poor discrimination with lithium stocks that commenced around two years back and has been declining since mid last year. Since then there has been many declines particularly for those cos that look more risky, eg Lake. Any new buyers have become far more selective.

Atlantic held pretty steady and likely had attracted a significant proportion of 'weak hands ' holders who had bought in on little more than momentum thinking 1-2 years back. Then someone came up with an initially plausible possible wipe out risk for Atlantic, getting an ML for Ewoyaa. This set off a sell-first/think-later wave of trades plus likely many stop outs.

I reckon many see playing the junior mining game as little more than playing roulette and/or following where the flock goes.

Mind for many that thinking may pay off where cos that suceed regularly end up at hundreds to thousands times the valuation of the issue junkie also rans.

Atlantic is now for those who are patient and are prepared to put the graft in.

ATB