Member Info for GaiasKidney

Looks to be finally breaking to the upside this morning.

It's the US that will soon be crying out for Li feedstock if even a fraction of that giga factory pipeline is built out. Will any production from PREM, KOD or indeed Leo be going there? All China bound to my knowledge. This I see as higher risk.

China of course also have a massive battery expansion pipeline, presently near all feedstock for present US giga plants comes from China. Sustainable?

No way Ewoyaa being a later producer than others will mean they suffer poorer pricing so later delivery is just what it is. As for when the big SP rise comes I expect ours will occur in the few month before genuine production is on the way to nameplate. Few will buy then wait, most instead wait for the action of others first. There is little trust.......Or just poor research and a lack of patience.

I admit to more trust in Ghana over other jurisdictions and deals with US entities rather than China.

AISI Most potential takers are blindsided by the perceived risk with ALL and only a few actually grasp the median upside here that will come with success of the scheme. Risk dominates upside.....and that is.....?

So higher sustainable supercycle pricing depends on a persisting Li deficit. Will there be?... Demand future:

https://twitter.com/sdmoores/status/1665633263753240577?s=20

Some 1.5my/y of LCE required to cover that, if from SC6 that's around 10mt/y... and that's just North America.

New supply future over next 4 - 7 years? Say?

Sayona 300k, SGML 600k, Liontown 300k, Leo 400k, Aus expansions 1200k. Any more? S America 500k SC6eq from 80k new LCE.... Total 3.3m. Well short. Canada step in by then? Some maybe. Ewoyaa can add a further 400k max.

So looks like supercycle pricing for rest of this decade is valid and sell side price predictions will be misplaced. The EUR deal with the Saudis- Sc6 3k floor, 7k top- (@Haplo clocked, @TORO grasped) looks achievable then. Is TORO's sum then for ALL realistic or just a rush of blood?

Quick FP:

Ewoyaa sell spod at mid 5K, @ 360ky/y (40% up on PFS). Revenue 1.8bn

After tax, royalties, opex etc. Say Ewoyaa earnings distribution 1.1bn

45% to ALL. 500m

Atlantic outgoings not that high so say divi to holders 350m.

Hmm... present mcap $230m.

Even with a 30% ALL issue dilution the sum is essentially right. Expect a lot less. Hooper reckons 750m issue by production.

Over optimistic? Not looking so, but only time will tell. Think on this though: typical 5% yield means ~20x upside. Worth a risk punt? In my book definitely.

News soon then!

GLA.

Pun intended:

"Under the terms of the JV Term Sheet, and subject to the successful commissioning of the Plant, EUR

will sell the lithium spodumene concentrate to the JV company at a reduced rate with a floor price of

US$3,000/t and a ceiling price of US$7,000/t over the life of the current resource of the Wolfsberg mine."

This European Lithium ASX:EUR.

Imagine that!

Https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2023/06/01/ignore-short-term-lithium-price-volatility/

Atlantic gets a mention

Https://t.co/8XyOIcITbq

youtube.be/uYBEDLBUEgg

The Assay, 9 days back.

There KM gave the same reason for ML delay - bringing in more area to licence - but then anticipated a delay of 'a month or two". From 4m 30.

Now looks to have gone behind their pay wall.

I noted KM reiterating the reason for the now predicted putting back of the receipt of the final Mining Operating Permit Grant. Mid 24 he said AIR, previous was 1-2 Qs earlier. Otherwise a very positive interview.

Https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/25/energy/solar-investment-to-outpace-oil-first-time/index.html

To be effective solar needs accompanying BESS..... a large amount.

You never know, could actually trigger a sentiment somersault.......

We'll see.

A 6 month period from MINCOM grant given to operating licence given that is.

Though many observers see the permitting and subsequent FID as the trigger point for the derisk value accretion event here, permitting is not a point event, it has 4 stages. From a recent pressy:

'Permitting Process

1,

ML Grant (MINCOM)

2,

EPA Environmental ML

3,

parliamentary ratification

4 - final,

Mining operating permit grant.'

In various interviews with ALL that estimated to be around a 6 month process and now strongly flagged as becoming complete by end q4.

I would expect the value accretion to also pick up with the passing of the licensing milestones. First any day!

From conclusion

"Atlantic has a committed partner in Piedmont and

has limited funding needs; if a downstream customer

wants Atlantic’s offtake rights, it will likely need to

bid outright for the company or pay full market price

for the spodumene.

My battery-grade chemical supply-demand models

forecast continued tightness, which will likely worsen

over time and reach severe levels as Atlantic achieves

fully ramped production (2026 onwards).

In my opinion, Atlantic securing a mining permit in

late 2023 for the Ewoyaa project will be a major

catalyst for a re-rating.

Given the exceptional infrastructure available

to Atlantic and the low capex/opex, I believe

receiving a mining permit and a positive final

investment decision would essentially de-risk the

project, and a P/NPV10 valuation ratio of 0.8x

would be justified. Using that valuation metric,

the fair value of Atlantic on a fully diluted basis

is between £0.94 - £1.13/share with a blue-sky

upside target of £1.26/share."

On production 10 to 15p divi per year for ALL by my reckoning.

Released

https://rkequity.com/assets/articles/rh/2023/Atlantic%20Lithium%20Limited%20-%2024%20May.pdf

Very much doubt any significant new money will be taking shares here until there is actual progress published on permitting. With continuing steady unloading from the 'seller' any rises from the present low level buying will be capped.

Tedious, but patience required. Ewoyaa's spodumene becomes more valuable daily.

With Ford's extensive supply grab yesterday.

The US is rapidly creating the end to end lithium supply chain it will have to have to achieve independence. However the US OEMs will have no choice but to look beyond their borders for upstream lithium supply in very large part. It has already been signaled here that the Ewoyaa DFS will propose production well above previous feasibility, this should grow Atlantic's uncommitted SC6 allocation to some 180kt/y, that's some 30kt/y LCE.

Though lithium pricing has come back from extraordinarily highs, in the West hydroxide and carbonate still remain at high levels of $40 to 50/kg. So those OEMs who are for example short say 30kt/y of offtake for their new cathode plants the market option will cost them $1500m/y and that price will be volatile.

I sense here a deal will be spicing up the already transformative news flow mix soon to come.

Https://twitter.com/AtlanticLithium/status/1660500154393444352?s=20

Analysis on ALL, not released from a pay wall yet.

Will this move the needle?

Think I may grab some Monday am.

I don't tend to act on charting but because many follow there is often an element of self reinforcement following a 'signal '.

However I see two overlapping pennants have developed bounded by: 1, down trend resistance from April 22, 66p to today 33p, 2, up trend support from March 23, 3, short duration down trend resistance starting from 2nd week in April . They are intersecting now.

Will this herald a breakout? ...And if so in what direction.

GLA.

Philips: Tennessee permitting this.

Not Ewoyaa but regardless an important milestone as looks as Tennessee will be wanting feedstock to plan from Ewoyaa. Every incentive for the players to get it up and running ASAP.

Amongst all expected Atlantic news q2/3 also anticipate off take for large part of unassigned Ewoyaa production. Large scale giga factory commitments in NA now, feedstock squeeze only to get more severe, US ev sales up 70%.

Near end:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6327743265112

"A11 ATLANTIC LITHIUM LIMITED.

New Battery Elements - Overnight Price: $0.62

Wilsons rates ((A11)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Wilsons has hired a new analyst and initiated coverage on Australian lithium companies. The obvious observation is to refer to the -50% drop in Chinese prices in 2023, which allows for three positive initiations out of five.

We're in this for the long haul, Wilsons exclaims, let's not get sidetracked by short term sentiment and stocking cycles!

The key sentence that explains it all: "we remain principally focussed on the longer term structural thematic drivers, and are confident that the low-carbon energy transition will drive expected compounding deficits in supply over the coming decades, which will underpin robust pricing over the longer term."

Wilsons initiates coverage of Atlantic Lithium with an Overweight rating and price target of $1.10.

This report was published on May 8, 2023.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.475

If A11 meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June"

https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2023/05/12/australian-broker-call-extra-edition-may-12-2023/