Member Info for G_G_G

So there's a maximum of 2.5m options remaining (2020) to exercise in the high 20's. All other options won;t be exercised until sp is closer to 60p. Not too many issues for me with this. Cheap options have been exercised and now absorbed by the share count and market (for those selling). Another 50k shares for me just now. Holding 550k at 32.92p average.

Will go in for more if there's any further weakness. Reckon absolute bottom here is 29p (£70m mcap) providing there's no nasty surprises between now and the deal closing. To put into context, at 29p this will be valued at roughly USD$100m including Trinity absorption. They will be throwing off $40-45m cash from ops in 2024, and significantly more when averaging 15-20k boepd in 2025. Maybe 10% drop post merger for some !diotic reason, but unlikely. Even TRIN holders who bought very recently (pre-t/o offer) won't be making any money. Very tempted to take some more but will wait to see if there's any more weakness. My view is 50-60p channel at year end providing we're exiting at 15kboepd and have an aggressive drilling plan for 2025 targeting closer to 20kboepd. I think 2026 is where the 'wall of cash' will start to become a reality. AIMHO GLA

There's going to be no suspension, whoever suggested that give your head a wobble. There's £5m in the bank and Selene to be drilled.

boom.boom. I agree these are all the options that WERE available to the bod over the past year. These f@cking h@lfwits should have had a number of them lined up 3-6 months ago instead of insisting on doing a farm-out when there was a hard deadline that the market wasn't aware of existing. It's difficult to put into words just how amateurish these f@cking clowns have been. At the very least they could / should have raised £5m and arranged a £5m loan with Shell or equivalent carry with the rig owner. This could have been secured with the 20% we'd still hold in Penascola, and by giving them 10% for free. Simple and easy to execute, yet nothing was done. They also could have done a raise for more than this amount months ago. Absolute f@cktards.

By the way, the RNS reads to me they are trying to sell Penascola. They'll probably get a couple of $m and dress it up as a win. No doubt the sale will end up with someone that was once considering the f/o.

Does anyone know how many more options are bing held by staff? I'm assuming these options being converted is due to the upcoming acquisition vote? Helps to have them voting 'Yes' I suppose.

The staff converting with some shares being sold to cover taxes alongside Shiphka selling 300k recently (who is seemingly on the way out) is probably what's keeping the sp down. I imagine once they're done we should see some decent support and maybe even a lift. GLA

Without getting into the war, what are the main issues investors see here?

The legal issues would be great ot understand form KNOWLEDGEABLE posters. F@cktards like 666 don't bother. From what I can tell they're going after the major shareholder - is this correct? Seems an over-reach to go after a listed company versus himself personally, but is this the main thrust of what's going on? And if so, why does FXPO need to hold over $100m to cover any legal claim? It doesn;t appear that FXPO has done anything untoward. I have no doubt any Ukrainian oligarch is a first rate c@nt - they're no different to the Russians in this regard. But surely this cannot be done from a legal pov. I'd appreciate some guidance on this as there's a good chance I'm completely wrong.

The other major risk from what I can tell is the war turning negative. Obviously a big risk, but if the concern is the Russians will get to the mines themselves, which are a long way past Kharkiv, the chances are next to zero. There is no way they will take Kharkiv let alone push that far. The West will likely commit troops before that happens. And they'll allow Ukraine to hit Russia with everything they have remaining. People need to keep in mind that Ukraine has now finally received the sort of support that matters - artillery, missiles, and air support.

Other things mentioned is funds selling out due to FTSE 250 relegation. Anyone know when this is likely to end, and the usual impact of this sort of thing happening?

The war has been raging for over 2 years and the sp has never been this low. So are the above factors the key things to be aware of? Any detail on the legal cases would be much appreciated, including any costs that are likely to be incurred by FXPO.

Funny thing is I looked seriously here after the Crimea invasion and iron ore price implosion back in 2015, and I baulked. Could have 5-10x in 24 months. If this drops into the 20's I think the same thing could happen.

Obviously far more risk with legal and bigger conflict. But the legals will be wrapped up at some point, and they appear to be making a lot of £££ to cover any fines. The FTSE 250 sell-off will also end. The big question mark for me is Russia bombing these mines as I don't believe they'll get anywhere near siezing them. AIMHO GLA

Bl@@dy annoying that i can't view the report after registering.

Still no update from the f@ckwit bod after they've told the market the license needs to be given back at end of month. Wow. These guys are a f@cking joke.

Not ideal. Flag for me is all directors are not converting the full amount (and giving us some cash). Why would you do that if your conversion price is 13p...? Surely better to take all the shares if you believe things are going to get markedly better from here...? And better to have a bit more cash in the bank.

Either way the company is doing much better than the sp suggests. Even with continue straight line Casc decline rates (very unlikely) the total production with TRIN is going to be circa 9kboepd of which a very large proportion is going to be liquids. Hard to believe this warrants a Mcap of £90m (inc TRIN). Providing Casc comes on board and decline rates start to slow / stabilise we're going to be throwing off a lot of cash when nearer 15kboepd 2024 exit rates.

Another company that I'm in (and grossly under-valued), is i3e. It has around 19kboepd (mcap £135m). When looking at financial metrics (funds flow from ops v mcap) they are valued similarly if TRIN is absorbed at current sp, although i3e still more under-valued v TXP+TRIN (at current sp by about 15%). The difference however is the significant production and funds flow increases available to TXP providing each additional Casc well comes online without any issues. And TRIN has significantly better gas pricing v Canada (for now). If they can average +15kboepd in 2025 then a re-rate of 50% is comparable to another grossly under-valued company. If however 20kboepd in 2025 looks realistic at year-end then 75% re-rate is on the cards.

As always it comes down to TRIN closing, decline rates, and not f@cking up the new Casc wells. All going well then 50-60p channel looks very likely en dof year, even if we're to remain under-valued.

Out of interest, how much does a Casc well cost to drill?

GLA

Some good numbers there lse. Big question is what they can deliver in the dry season. Does anyone know how river levels are going at the moment? Are they higher or lower than this time last year? Surely the Amazon is due a year or two of higher than average levels.

This has a very good EV:EBITDA, but I agree with Rylidan that risk needs to enter the equation. I'd add to that forecast EV:EBITDA numbers for the next 1-3 years. And reserves levels (be it for O&G or other commodities). These numbers give a better picture of whether they can continue to grow value.

PTAL ticks the box on forecast EV:EBITDA and reserves. The issue is risk, which is pretty big here. I'd love to buy more but the geo-political and environmental risks make me nervous. Having said that I have 450k shares at 48p so in fairly deep on this one. SP definitely a disappointment but 1.25p dividend at least brings down my average to high 46's. Woudl be nice if we can get another 2c divi next quarter. Reckon an average below 45p here is very good.

Yeah looks like garbage. Who knows when the peak will be. They have max gas processing capacity that could be achieved in less than 2 years providing Casc declines stabilise, new wells deliver at similar rates to the first 2 (or better), and the TRIN t/o is accepted so they have cash to ramp up development spend from year end. Processing capacity will be the short term limit unless they increase it over the next 2 years. There's also oil development as well.

Board are certainly going to have a very hard time at the AGM next Thursday if they give back Penascola. If I were Swindell I'd go in wearing a helmet. Even if the do manage to pull off something by way of an accelerated fund raise, they will need to dilute the hell out of PIs at this share price. Providing they give PIs a decent chance of participating they may avoid being mobbed at the AGM. But if they pull an after hours Primary Bid move it won;t go down well. Interesting to see what comes next. GLA

Highland the buy/sell is never accurate. The 25k this morning for instance was me. Someone probably offloading a chunk early today and keeping the sp near 33p.

It's interesting as the market has put a value on TRIN by bringing the sp down 20% since the offer was made public. I imagine when the deal closes we'll sit around this level for a little while. There could (unlikely) be some selling from short-sighted TRIN holders who will get a small profit if they had started buying near recent 5 year lows. TRIN has spent about 4 months below its current value over the past 5 years, and that was in the last 12 months. So although we're being diluted, we're picking up TRIN at a bargain basement price. This in turn means it's less likely there will be many TRIN holders offloading as most investors would have a much higher average than current sp (like here), which is why it's unlikely many investors will be jumping ship in the 30's. And if they do there may be another very short window to accumulate around the 30p range because anything less will be at a loss for virtually all TRIN holders. From there it will depend on Casc. If both wells get hooked up without any issues and deliver on / near target then we'll be back to the 50's in short order.

As for the 50's prediction, there's a few reasons why I'm suggesting this sp. Firstly we'll have 20% more shares in issue, so a bigger base to lift. Secondly, we have a number of sp resistance levels to overcome before we get to 50-60p channel, which also happens to be reasonably well established. Thirdly, we'll have TRIN holders taking profits, as this is where more investors will start to make a profit.

Good thing about TXP is the market gets very excited about the company and its prospects. If Casc delivers the market will start to recognise the known reserves as being recoverable (and the 'wall of cash' being realistic), providing a significant re-rate based on actual and potential production. And, they will recognise the value of TRIN in helping to accelerate production at a very fast pace toward maximum processing capacity (which will be in place).

All in all we need TRIN to close, dust to settle, decline rates tapering off in Q2/3, and most importantly Casc to deliver without any major issues in September / October. Lots of milestones between now and then. AIMHO GLA

Sturm I've been in and out of TXP previously. You'd have to go back years in my profile but you'll find it. Was just after the pandemic and I sold out way too early and missed making a lot of money. I've stayed across this stock ever since because of the way it trades and money that can be made, largely from market sentiment. The company has only become a producer of note in the last 6 months. Before-hand it was all exploration and discoveries that drove the sp. So I'd say I'm pretty well versed in what has and hasn't happened here over the past few years. Mgt have over-promised, which they often do at times. And the market has overly punished the company for not delivering, and for still having question marks on whether they will in future. This is the current state of affairs.

Also you speak of TXP ramping up Casc. Tell me how are they meant to do this? Is there a magic money tree they can shake that I'm unaware of? They have already increased their debt facilities and have run out of road. So they have to wait until they generate enough cash from ops to keep drilling. Or they can buy another company that has cash at the ready, will add significantly to their cash from ops, and will provide them with tax breaks so they can reinvest their cash from ops. All while delivering synergy savings. Reality is the only way they can super-charge Casc is to raise more cash (I've addressed this already), increase their debt (difficult, risky, and costly), or buy cash + production + tax breaks + cost savings by printing 25% more shares, which is effectively the same as raising $23m @ 35p anyway. You also make out that raising $20m is something that is easily done for a company of this size. Must be from the magic capital raise tree that I'm unaware exists.

And no the sp won't get punished if the deal goes through. It's just been valued lower by the market (for now), and will climb rapidly when all the Casc question marks have been answered. Come October if Casc 2&3 are hooked up and delivering, alongside our current Casc decline rates stabilising, then this will be well north of here. Reason being is they will have the cash to drill all those wells you are mentioning. Without TRIN it will take much longer because they won't have $10m extra cash immediately, or an extra 33% cash from ops, or tax pool to reinvest all the cash from ops, or cost savings accompanying these benefits. Oh, and then you have greater ability to pay down debt (or take out more debt), bigger shareholder base (and liquidity), and another 12m low cost / low decline 2P reserves, which are worth more than what we're paying.

If you cannot see what I'm saying (and mgt are saying), then you're blind.

still nothing from the clowns in mgt. reckon they will leave it right up to friday afternoon and then sya they've been given an extension without providing a concrete date. that's how clowns operate. what a ****show they have made of this company.

Amazing to think we can buy in the 45's with ex-divi just around the corner. Absolute madness with Brent at $85 and +900bopd just purchased. If we drop by quite a bit post ex-divi I'm going to jump in a bit harder. Getting silly now.

I will however remind everyone that our current sp is a result of high decline at Casc, which they still haven't established. And mgt have over-promised / under-delivered to date. Having said that if decline rates start to taper (as expected), TRIN goes through, and Casc 2 & 3 are hooked up without any issues then 50's (maybe 60's) by year end is where I see the sp. They will need to have given guidance on future production as well. If there's a solid number of wells being drilled in 2025 then 60's is definitely a decent possibility. There's 3 x BIG IFs to get over first. Hopefully TRIN this month, decline rates known (and not bad) in July / August, and then Casc wells in September / October. The wells are the most important to execute. AIMHO GLA

Sturm, you'll need to point out where I mentioned raising cash. I mentioned that TRIN comes WITH CASH, and it will continue to be a cash generator for years to come. This is part of your incoherent argument.

And yes TXP does need cash. It will have maxed its loans this year with planned development, which is fine. But they don't have more cash to ramp up production until it starts flowing in. With TRIN they can drill two more wells immediately, whilst they are building a cash pile from both TXP & TRIN assets to drill more wells and service debt in future. And then you get the tax pool that means you are paying less to the government when rapidly building the cash pile, and able to put more into the ground. In other words they can ramp up far more quickly. It's really not hard to work out.

Oh and then there's diversified production with more high value oil. And should a well or heaven forbid processing facility go down, they will still have cash coming in. This s a good thing in case you haven't worked it out. The deal is a very good one, regardless of whether they could have gotten a better deal. But as I've said before it's a very good deal only if you're buying down here. Less so if your average is much higher, which I presume yours is.

As for the cash raise that YOU mentioned, that's just plain dumb. At 35p (being generous) they will dilute to the same degree but won't have any of the assets, production, tax pool, diversification, synergies, or liquidity. I'm not going to debate this any longer as I'm quite confident that most can see both arguments and can make their own minds up. I'm buying more. You can sit with your higher average and pray the deal falls over. Even better, sell out if it passes. Follow your own logic.

Sturm, again I have no idea what you are on about.

Firstly you're talking about an acquisition that if shares are converted today is worth circa $23m. For this we will get circa $8-10m in cash on closing. So the real cost is $13-15m. For this small amount we get:

- 2800 bopd (oil) production. This means we're more diversified and we get more revenue thanks to the production being liquids. This is also low decline production.

- 12m 2P reserves. This is also low cost development.

- $10-12m cash from operations. This is 33% higher than what we're forecast to make in 2024.

- Significant tax pools. This in itself is huge for a company that is rapidly growing production. It's effectively cash that goes back in the ground rather than to the government.

- Company cost synergies. Even if it's $2m per year this is a recurring cost saving.

- No additional debt

- Greater liquidity

Saying this is anything other than a very good acquisition is bonkers. You talk of raising cash. So tell me what level we would raise at to get away just $10m alone (the cash value we will pick up)? Maybe a raise at 35p...? So 10% dilution, but none of the long list of benefits I have provided above. Of course the real value of the deal is for new TXP buyers at today's price. But if you're not on-board and taking advantage of these prices then it's your decision. But at least get your logic and numbers straight.

Sturm, isn't that the point of the deal - it provides immediate cash generation plus cash in the bank. This means they are free to drill another couple of Casc wells on the back of this deal closing without having to raise cash or borrow. And by the time they have drilled and hooked up the new wells they'll have made enough cash to drill another 2 wells and so on. I see this as being the deal that allows them to open up the taps immediately, and by quite a bit. Providing decline rates starts to taper, by the end of next year their biggest concern will be how to process the Casc gas being produced.

Feel free to correct my thinking folks, because I'm struggling to see any issues here unless the decline rates are diabolical, or they f@ck things up from an execution standpoint. Being delayed by a month isn't an issue providing they get it right first time with the new Casc wells coming online, and the next wells to be drilled go ahead without any missteps. People also need to keep in mind that if this deal closes we will be a bigger company with a bigger shareholder base. This adds liquidity, newsflow, coverage etc. If they execute this year we will enter 2025 as a +15kboepd producer with close to 30% liquids mix. And if they don't f@ck about and drill another 4-6 x Casc wells in 2025 then you're looking at 20-25kboepd in 12 months from now. The TRIN deal will make this possible.

I've picked up another 75k today at sub 33p. Holding 425k at 32.95p. Any more weakness and I'll add up to another 175k. TRIN deal closing and Casc going ahead without hiccups and this will be in the 50's by year end. GLA

Quite disappointing here. Brent has been averaging ariund $85 all quarter, which is a good 5% higher than Q1. And we have an extra 900bopd that can now be added to our production profile for 2024. I get that we have some higher Capex then anticipated for erosion control, but we're churning out more cash than ever before, the natives appear to have settled down, have close to $100m in cash, and a +10% dividend. Struggling to see how we're under 50p let alone close to 45p. The incremental investment in erosion control is peanuts. Mgt had a chance to stimulate some value here and f@cked it by announcing a p!ssy dividend straight after they awarded themselves the same amount in shares. F@ckers need to remember they are meant to serve their shareholders, and not themselves. Figure we need to wait another 2 months before we get some decent news again. Hopefully some pleasant surprises next time. GLA