Member Info for G_G_G

No offence taken Stas, but don't believe that's accurate. I've said where I think the sp is going for Q2/3 over the last few months. And I've said that I'll start buying again in the low 10's (people scoffed). I've also said I'll be buying then because I believe it will go back to the 12's by Q1 next year. It's simply playing out that way. The big problem for me is I wasn't clever enough to sell my 2m on the jump to the 12's or even mid 11's recently, even though I've been saying we'll get hit mid year by AECO. You live and learn. Thankfully I have a decent chunk of cash set aside so will wait and see. Also have a chunk in PTAL that I think will recover soon. And then my semi-gamble is TXP, which will hopefully re-claim 40-50p before this starts to climb again at year end. If still in the low 10's and TXP has delivered then I'll go 'all in' here as I think it will bounce back, just not before it takes another drop.

Holding 2.25m shares after my recent 250k buys at 10.5p average. Already made a loss on those buys :)( GLA

Yeah SP getting crushed by AECO, which isn't going to improve for another 3-4 months. Thankfully they have hedged more than half our production (from memory). I'm sitting on the sidelines for a little while now. Becoming quite confident there will be a re-visit of the 9's in the next 3 months, which is when I'll start jumping in as things will undoubtedly improve in 2025.

Off topic, but all my O&G AIM stocks have gotten smacked recently (PTAL & TXP) so not isolated to i3e.

Thankfully TXP average is 32.85p and they're likely (hopefully) going to turn a corner and head back to the 50's when Casc comes on-board in September (providing no hiccups). Recent TRIN acquisition if approved by shareholders in the next week or so could provide a bit of strength as well. If not there could be weakness to 29p but otherwise I see very limited downside from current levels (less than 10%).

PTAL average uglier at 48p, but will receive 1.2p in dividend payments this week which softens the blow somewhat. SP should increase on the next quarterly results as they're pumping a lot of oil, should have closed a neighbouring highly synergistic field acquisition inc. 900bopd (for $5m), and Brent has averaged above $80 for the quarter.

All three represent very good value at the moment with i3e and TXP having max downside of 10% in the near term. PTAL has bottomed imo. Anyone got some other bombed out O&G stocks like i3e?

Just picked up 2 x 100k @ 10.59p and 10.48p, and 50k 10.5p. The sp is looking pretty sickly at the moment with some chunky sells going through. Will add a few more in the low 10's (if possible) then maybe sit back and see what happens after the Q2 update in 6 weeks or so. Still thinking we may drop into the 9's again as people panic sell on the numbers. Would be totally oversold but that's the game here - try to time the dips before the inevitable 10-20% rise at year end. GLA

Some reasonable selling pressure happening today. Hopefully no nasty surprises coming. PB appears to be a bit of a salesman, which makes me far more nervous now after recently being swindled by Graham Swindells (DELT CEO). Understand people sometimes need the money but PIs selling at a loss here when there's so much potential good news seems a bit odd...

Smasher, if that happens and they're drilling the other 4-5 wells in quick succession i.e. Q4-Q1 2025, then yes I think we'll at least double from here. For a 2.5x to happen (80p) we'll need:

- TRIN deal to close

- Casc hook up to go without any dramas and executed end of September i.e. on stated timings.

- Casc wells to perform 20% above target, which I believe is 3,300 boepd equivalent, so 4k boepd.

- Additional 4 x wells (plus 1 contingency) as fast follows i.e. drilled and producing in H1 2025.

People need to keep in mind that our current Casc wells are continuing to decline, as will these new wells. Hopefully not to the same rates, but if they do then 20kboepd is the likely 2025 exit rate with 5 x new Casc wells being drilled. Some may not like to hear it, but that's the reality of having declines that look Harmonic. If it's a different decline curve, for example classic Hyperbolic, then we should see a positive improvement of up to 50% for decline rates, and yes 100p is definitely possible.

Anyway that's my armchair expert analysis. Good thing is the worst case scenario for decline rates (assuming there's nothing wrong with well production) and we should still be exiting near 20k boepd next year. GLA

bada, i'll use those words. swindler is a greasy little shyster. at what point did he mention there was a hard stop to penascola negotiations at end-may or we could lose the license...? also, am i correct in saying the company could also be liable for costs associated with penascola as well...? even though we no longer hold any interest in the biggest south ns gas find in decades? has this been communicated?

should have seen from his **** eating grin photograph that he's a used car salesman masquerading as a ceo. gross mgt negligence in having no plan b, c or d. who the f@ck operates in this way...? and to not keep the market fully informed of the impact of the f/o falling through is unforgivable. and then the classic shyster move 'it's not my fault but the government'. both parties are ret@rded, but they've been consistently ret@rded for years. no excuses there, unless you're a shameless shyster. what a ****show he has overseen.

smx, as i said i'm not an expert, but the decline rates of the current casc wells fit a harmonic curve, which is the worst case scenario.

sturm, you should account for current casc well decline rates and apply to existing and new wells until end 2025. current casc decline rates are looking like 50% over first 12 months. if you do this you'll find that 20kboepd is a good result. if future wells perform at a better decline rate then 2-3kboepd more could be produced. all back of *** packet calcs but i wouldn't be betting on exiting 2025 with more than 20kboepd if we're only drilling another 4-5 casc wells after 2 & 3 get hooked up. remember all our production declines, just some wells more than others.

next to zero volume here now. some good news on casc post trin acquisition and this will rocket. aimho gla

Welloil, completely agree with what you've said. In many way it comes down to timing and getting lucky (with asset sale or t/o). I'm hoping to rebuild a position here over the coming months. All going well I'll be holding far more than 2m shares if / when what you've described happens. It would kill me to miss a t/o given the amount of years and money I've put into this company.

Massive cash pile is only a good thing if you can scale production & DELIVERY! We don't have a problem with extracting oil. We have a problem transporting it. And that isn't going to change any time soon. It also doesn't explain why they are sitting on their hands whilst the sp is this low. They have the ability to do BBs, so need to get on with them.

So am I right in saying that 5 x Casc wells following Casc 2 & 3 are planned...? If so, and the wells deliver in line with expectations, we should be exiting 2025 at circa 20kboepd (allowing for TRIN plus continued decline rates for old and new Casc wells). SP in 18 months should be 2-3x current if this is achieved. Not long before we get TRIN news. And 18 weeks from now we'll know for sure if Casc is on-track. If so then 50-60p is pretty much nailed on. GLA

Regardless of any deal (like to be rubbish), I think Swindler should be banned from any future senior mgt position for being a useless c@nt. A 12 year old would have had more foresight and fallback options than this clown.

3LBs, more the point that I wish I sold in the 11's recently and stuck to my belief the sp would drop back to the low 10's. I'm holding 2m shares, but have cash to be able to buy significantly more should the sp pullback. Been pretty transparent about this for a while now. So yes wanting to get back in, but ideally at lower sp level. GLA

I just sent an email to investor relations and PTAL to pull their heads out of their @sses and re-start buybacks. It's one thing to have such a p!sspoor level of BBs, but far worse when the SP is at this level and you have authorisation to buy shares. Suggest other who think the same to send emails. It might get mgt to give their brokers heads a wobble.

Very sad to say but I think this could drop into the 9's on the next update. It will of course recover in the winter months and beyond, but the market will likely look at the numbers in front of them and sell off.

PR and coverage here has been the best I've seen since investing pre-pandemic. Credit where credit is due for mgt on this one. Turns out PR helps, but isn't enough to maintain the sp. Another 5% drop and I'll start building a stake again. Fwiw still holding 2m shares. GLA

Yeah reckon we'll get a downgrade unless they announce another drill. PB needs to ensure he times it at the right time and highlights that even 12kboepd is a huge cash generator without TRIN. Timing of these things really matter. He should drop the news alongside Casc +ve performance. Obviously the nightmare scenario is Casc doesn't perform and they downgrade to less than 10kboepd (non TRIN). Ultimately boils down to Casc. They've got 4 months ensure everything goes to plan. And another Casc well planned for Q4 with hook-up pre-year end would definitely give a shot in the arm to the sp. Surprised the sp hasn't started to build. Those director conversions / sells took the wind out of our sails. I think in the next week we'll start to climb back to the high 30's. GLA

SP getting eaten away. Concern is what happens when Q2 and Q3 results come out. They're not going to be pretty given AECO prices. Thankfully some decent hedges in place.

Thanks Johno, and agree with your thinking. Good to know the Co wells will maintain liquids production rates. This will be a nice little earner for the company.

On decline rates at Casc I'd suggest looking at the different types of decline curves for O&G wells - Exponential, Hyperbolic and Harmonic. It looks clear to me that we have Harmonic decline, but I'm no expert. If it continues to follow this curve then we will continue to see reasonable decline rates for the next 2 years. Expect 50% decline by end year 1 and 75% by end year 4. So it does taper, but you'll continue to see a decent decline over the years. If correct then Q3 production for Casc wells will be circa 3500 boepd. We will still have around 1700 boepd non-Casc. And providing the new Casc wells come online (on target) then another 6600 boepd for Q4. It's why I don't see the exit rates being hit unless PB is throwing in TRIN production, or another Casc well is expected to come online in Q4. ..?

Either way, the market will re-rate here heavily providing the deal closes and Casc wells are on time and on target. PB has disappointed on timings and targets previously, so there could be another disappointing RNS in September. But Casc will get hooked up, it's just how good the production happens to be.

Agree with comment earlier that Q2 results could give the sp a knock, especially if declines are bigger than what I've laid out. Hopefully TRIN deal closing and extra production + funds will counter any negative sentiment until Q3 results in October and confirmation that all is good with Casc. GLA

Clown bod has 3 days to deliver something here. I don't understand why they wouldn't pursue a loan from Shell (backed by stake in field) and then raise cash. They could take a £5m loan, raise £5m, and give Shell 10% of the field. Providing one of the wells delivers they should raise cash for the Selene appraisal (if successful) and pay off the loan. Both coming in and you're looking at +£75m mcap and would only need to dilute by a further 20% to cover loan and appraisal well.

This would have been my direction all along. Shell have little risk, plus an extra 10%. And they could have diluted by a far smaller level post Selene announcement. Bod are an absolute f@cking joke. And to blame the government who have been consistently ret@rded for years for their lack of foresight is pathetic. Swindler should be put against a wall for crimes against management and leadership. GLA

Meant to add that oil is also much higher value and gives us some optionality depending on commodity prices. Casc if managed correctly is the big one though. Gas prices are quite strong in Trinidad so our Casc wells are quite good earners versus development costs. If they get things right there's no reason they cannot stick a good half dozen wells in next year at Casc and supplement with a few oil wells. Tax pool means we can grow quickly, but once it disappears growth will be harder to sustain. Either way 20-25k boepd should be achievable in the next 18-24 months (providing they don't f@ck up Casc). SP should be 2-3x current if they deliver (with 50-75% value growth in the next 6-9 months). AIMHO GLA

Correct Ayecuramba. Having said that we're going to have a pretty decent oil production level, so even at 10-15% decline rates (pretty good), we will need to replace with 400-600bopd. On this point, does anyone know the expected production rates from our new oil wells?