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certainly the big ? is at what level the decline rates start to taper.

did a bit of googling and re-looked at our decline rates and it appears casc are harmonic style wells (unfortunately). basically you halve in production end year 1 and have lost 66% end year 3, and 75% of production by end year 4. this is typically a new shale well curve.

from the decline rates we are experiencing it looks like harmonic is what we have for casc. unless of course they f@cked things up in the drilling of the wells, which i believe happened on one of them...? they still haven't gotten their heads around gas kicks by the looks of things either.

so if they want to continue growing production (slowly) beyond this year they will need to be drilling a new well for every 2 they have operating. i also think paul baay is talking **** when stating that guidance is to be maintained. at current decline rates, and providing they don;t make a mess of casc 2 & 3, they will be hitting 11k-12-5kboepd (low to high case). this is based on 3.3kboepd for each casc well in 1st quarter of operating.

so for 14-15k boepd exit rates they will need to be drilling one more casc well. or, he is including the trin production.

either way the numbers stack up quite well versus current valuation. the above are broad brushstrokes but it doesn't appear that any interventions have yielded more than marginal results in stemming well decline rates. and, they need to execute casc 2 & 3 without issues and delays. again something they are yet to prove they are capable of doing.

i haven't yet done the financials for txp + trin for a combined mcap of £90-95m, which would be the value at current sp. i will do this over the w/e, but confident they will look good at today's sp level.

they can of course hit 20k boepd in 2025, but i suspect they will need to replace oil production with a few decent wells. and they will need to drill at least 4-5 new casc wells producing at 3.3 kboepd to achieve. happy to be challenged on any of the above - i'm no oil expert. aimho gla

Yeah it's not manipulation. The market has lost confidence in mgt's ability to deliver stated numbers, at the same time as driving down the share price to lower the value of the TRIN offer. In doing this you won't have TRIN holders getting their new TXP shares and dumping them, as very few will be in profit. Basically the market valuing the deal itself. Finally, there's next to no volume and most sells the past 2 weeks have been mgt selling to cover options taxes (and one selling a decent chunk). So if you're buying now it's pretty bargain basement.

Even with the low volume it appears as though we're forming a base around £75m mcap (32-33p). Just picked up another 2 x 25k bundles at 32.8p. Will probably come back for a few more if I can continue to accumulate in the 32's. Got 675k at 32.88p now :)

Bit of a risk here, but the reward is 50-75% in 6 months depending on the deal closing and Casc not being f@cked up. Casc delivering will support their assertions on resource size and their ability to exploit. And they'll have plenty of cash to go after it, whilst saving on taxes. Sticking with my 50-60p channel by year end. GLA

If majors, like Shell, are considering de-listing then why not us...?

Could be Stas. I think the biggest issue is the UK listing. We're grossly under-valued against Canadian peers. Other companies like PTAL have similar issues. Mgt have done a good job at generating PR coverage recently, and although we have seen some bumps in the sp, it hasn't been maintained.

Genuinely believe they should dump the Nth Sea 'assets' and de-list from the UK. Failing country with a failing stock market. Add the stink that O&G gets from the government and the UK is a f@cking joke. Also don't see the fact that we have large UK shareholders as being an issue. I'd take the 15% Canadian dividend tax for a 50-100% increase in the sp.

Some excellent analysis - Thanks IBB / Tony. Out of interest how oily is Simonette? Looking at one of the pages it shows their acreage is only 31% liquids, which doesn't sound like it should be valued so highly. Am I missing something here?

Highland, it doesn't say who they have purchased the interest from - why do you believe it is TXP? And if so, surely it would warrant an RNS if the sale and purchase agreement has been executed...

Not me Bottomsup. Only saw a 1.6m trade yesterday. Have to say I was tempted in the low 11's though. Still holding 2m shares in the ISAs. Looking for a re-entry in the mid to high 10's (so hopefully soon).

This won;t suspend. It will drop, but then bounce back as Selene drills start to turn. The big question is the size of drop if they lose Penascola for nothing. Reckon it will sink to single digits initially, by doubt it will go below 9p. Keep in mind they have 5p in cash, zero debt, and a free carry.

Agree supersport. I'm expecting 50-60p post +ve Casc update in October. Will happily take 50-80% in 6 months.

Volume still very low but does appear as though we've found a bottom from the past 3 weeks of downward pressure. It will be interesting to see what happens post acquisition (if it goes through). Still amazed there are sellers at this level given what the company has forecast for year-end. Will be quite a re-rate over the next 6-12 months providing they don't f@ck up Casc. GLA

Rylidan, completely agree. Mgt need to pull their heads from their @sses and instruct bigger BBs at this level. SP has gotten ridiculous.

Anyone attend the AGM? Interesting the sp has jumped.

dr p, don't get me started on our f@cktard politicians. it's perhaps the most shortsighted id!ocy that i have ever seen in my life. less energy security. pay more to c@nt regimes across the world. far bigger carbon footprint. and less jobs (and taxes) at home, which impacts all of us through welfare, and increased burden on workers to pay for a crumbling nhs and education systems. absolute ******s!!!

having said this has been common knowledge for some time so no excuses for swindells. he f@cked up badly and should have plans b, c, d & e covered over the past year.

Still got 50k shares DR P. Took my big hit at just over 21p average. Loss was substantial on my original investment (circa £75k @ 33p average), and far higher if one considers we were +40p at one point. Going to sit on the sidelines. And even then may stay away due to lack of confidence in the Swindler.

not sure if the extension is a ploy from swindells to avoid leaving the agm in an ambulance. whatever the outcome for penascola it's going to be far worse than what it could have been. he has truly f@cked things up on their key asset and what's worse is the deadline was news to most investors on here. regardless of whether it has been communicated, it should have been made clear to investors that a deal had to be reached by the end of may or the asset could be lost.

have to say that photo of swindell with pen in hand and a **** eating grin makes him look like a right smart @ss. he's got a very punchable face.

Devilbhoy, I agree the shares being sold are relatively insignificant but they all add up to counter the relatively insignificant amount of buys. In the past week it looks as though just over 600k were sold or used to cover withholding tax. Not huge, but still a decent chunk given total volume since last Tuesday has been 1.5m i.e. making up 80% of volume on the sell side of the equation. This is why I've been saying that once this ends I think there will be a jump in the sp, probably back to the 35-40p range.

F@ck it. Decided to take the 25k on the bell for 32.84p. He who dares and all that. Only another 25k shares from me until the deal closes (or not). Better not be any nasty surprises like I got from DELT.

And who the f@ck is selling at the moment? There must be very few PIs with averages near 30p. I can buy another 25k shares at 32.84p. Madness if everything is on-track.

Who do folks believe are selling here? Is it mgt options / conversions coming into the market? Somewhat disconcerting if this is the case.

Tend to agree Sirmark, however I'm starting to feel that my buys are the only ones holding up the sp, which in turn makes me a little nervous. Those 2 x 25k today were mine. Having said that I do believe this will rocket once mgt options stop getting sold and some good news lands.

Sturm, if they manage to get to 20kboepd by end 2025 the sp will be more than double now. I certainly wouldn't be complaining that we're not at 30kbeopd. First of all we need TRINs junk, and then we need them not to f@ck up Casc. Just hitting 15kboepd guidance this year (inc TRIN) and we'll be back in the 50-60p range. If all goes according to plan the Q3 update is going to make this fly (if it isn't already in the 40's). GLA

What the f@ck is going on with BBs? Sp being in the doldrums is the perfect time to be maxing the daily allowance and mgt are doing what exactly...?