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Thanks scoredagain, very helpful. Where did you get this from btw? Is it a broker report?

Surely it will depend on the infrastructure question with the Bleo Holm. No existing infrastructure to leverage and this becomes a stranded asset. This isn;t necessarily an issue providing the resource is huge, and the local government is supportive, both of which don't apply to Serenity / Tain. Will be interesting to see what happens next. Imagine we'll get an idea in the next few months.

Https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/serica-energy--sqz/approval-of-belinda-development/8206950

Interesting link posted on the i3e board. Serica clearly believe that small development are commercially viable even when 5m bbls. As suspected O&G companies are clearly focused on fields where they can tie-back to existing infrastructure easily, which is where Penascola becomes a problem (and not Selene).

In the meantime the sp continues to degrade. Once it hits 10m Mcap this will be in bargain territory again. SP decline means a raise appears to be less worthwhile with each passing day. I wonder whether they could get away £5m and then somehow agree a £5m loan with Shell (whilst giving 10% ownership to them). The £5m loan could potentially be put against the remaining Penscola stake (which also carries tax breaks) . Alternative is they lose the lot, which would be absolutely shambolic and mgt should hang their heads in shame for being so incompetent. AIMHO GLA

Quick one, where can I find EBITDA figures? I can see 'Net earnings' but have no idea how this squares with EBITDA. Any help would be appreciated.

Correct Ayecuramba, no-one knows the annual decline rate. A bit of googling would suggest a 'hyperbolic' decline rate curve. So about 30-35% decline by end of year 1, and 45-50% by end of year 2, and 66% end of year 5. The wells have declined in aggregate by circa 20% in two quarters so this feels about right.

Key here is execution of Casc 2 & 3. If they f@ck either one of them up the value proposition gets a bit sketchy. If they execute well, and the current decline rates stabilise (become known), and the TRIN deal goes ahead, then TXP can certainly 2-3x in the next 12 months. Quite a few things need to go right in the next 6 months for that to happen.

Sorry more questions folks - how many producing wells are there at Casc at the moment? Is it just the two? If so it would appear the next 2 x wells are capable of producing mgt's stated numbers (initially) if execution goes to plan. Moving forward I'd imagine they'll need to be drilling 3 x Casc style wells to maintain average annual production above 15kboepd for 2025 given observed decline rates. The TRIN deal would certainly help with this imo. Not sure why anyone in TXP are concerned with the small amount of dilution given the assets. I'd be more upset if I was TRIN holder at the moment. Having said that, if execution of CASC 2 & 3 are good they will end up quite happy as TXP will likely be higher than now. All down to whether they f@ck things up.

Not sure where the bottom lies here as there's a few big question marks. I think 30p (circa £70m mcap) could be the answer. If not I certainly wouldn't expect lower than 25p unless everything goes wrong with Casc 2 & 3. AIMHO GLA

So guidance for Casc 2 & 3 is about 6.6kboepd then...? I'm guessing they're including the extra 2.5kbopd from Trinity to hit their 14.5kboepd exit rate then. With current decline rates they'll need to drill a Casc 1 sized well every year just to maintain production. Doable if Casc 2 & 3 deliver, which appears to be a pretty big 'if'. GLA

Thanks Longfell. To save me a bit of time does anyone have the expected/ forecast Casc 2 & 3 production outputs?

Appreciate if some learned posters here can let me know if I'm on the right track with TXP and its recent poor sp performance. I'm trying to ascertain if it's worth sticking money in here now, or waiting for a bit more of a drop.

From what I can tell the sp malaise is primarily due to the unexpected decline rates. I note Q1 production came in significantly less than Q4 2023 at -18%. Even when accounting for circa 6% downtime that's still quite a production decline rate for just 1 quarter. And then April is at 6kboepd. So are these significant well decline rates the reason why the market is spooked? If so, it certainly appears optimistic mgt reiterating 14.5k boepd 2024 exit production when well decline rates are unknown, but seemingly running at circa 40-50% annualised. Appreciate if someone can let me know if I'm missing something here.

As for the acquisition, surely it's a much better thing for TXP than Trinity now. If it goes ahead it appears to be a very good deal to pick up oil 2500 bopd production, decent cash generation, net cash, decent reserves with exploration upside, plus considerable cost savings. Not sure why people here think it's a bad deal for TXP...? TRIN shareholders will get the equivalent of £15m in share value at current sp, whilst TXP get 20% dilution. So if this goes through I imagine it will be very good for TXP and will provide them with the cash to fix the issues they're experiencing at Casc.

Anyway, let me know if I'm missing something here. Yes decline rates are ugly. And there's a big ? over TXP's ability to pull things off from an operational standpoint. But with this deal and getting to +10kboepd from TXP production assets, this could get very interesting. Thoughts / comments welcome.

hi tony, interesting to know about pdp values. have you looked at them by key financial metrics, particularly - ev:ebitda? i know i3e will measure up very well against its peer group, but imagine it lags companies like ptal (which of course has higher geo-political risk).

reckon the last quarter has been the best i've seen in years for i3e from a coverage standpoint. many broker notes, alongside proactive coverage and interviews. it has been excellent, and think this has helped the share price quite a bit in this tough environment. hopefully it continues as we all know what happens in an information vacuum, especially if the next quarter is going to be even tougher. i'd like them to re-look at non-core assets / holdings and continue to scale down. not ideal in current environment from a value standpoint, but it you can do more with the money raised than what it will likely return in future, then bin it off.

nth sea is dead. not just for i3e, but entirely. never seen a government so inept and incompetent, and labour will be even worse for the industry. truly sad for the hundreds of thousands of people directly and indirectly employed by the industry, and for the economy as a whole. absolute ******s!

less than 2 full trading weeks for mgt to update the market. if they don't have a solution for penascola they should just bite the bullet and give it to shell. i get the feeling they're playing some sort of high stakes game with a potential farminee, or shell. either way they should put investors out of their misery if it's unlikely to result in anything worthwhile. i also don't understand why they cannot raise finance with shell. surely there's some type of loan, or ownership give-away they can get done.

mgt have truly f@cked up here and caused a lot of people to lose a lot of money. the government position has been known for sometime. and labour's position as well. to not focus on getting things wrapped up a year ago is a huge miss. and to stick with pursuing a f/o only and not be prepared to raise capital is an even bigger miss. absolute amateur hour by the bod. less than two weeks to find a solution or the company's future relies on rolling the dice with selene. what a ****show.

Surely they would never sit on $500m. If we keep building cash above $100m and have transport constraints, then much bigger BBs should come first, and then divi payments. Either way they need to reconsider what they're doing with all the cash. PTAL would be an attractive t/o target based on current fundamentals.

Forgot to say there must be a decent buyer here as that 2 x 250k was very easy to offload at the same price, which isn't normal at all. Knowing my luck there's a bid incoming :)

Full disclosure folks, it was me who dumped that 500k shares at 10.92p. I'm going to build again here but think the next set of results, risk of wildfires getting far worse, and very weak AECO prices are going to weigh on the sp in the next 3-6 months. There's also WTI below what they've forecast to hit their numbers. And I think there's going to be a mini market correction soon - overall market multiples are in bubble territory. Sitting on 2.5m shares here and 500k in PTAL. Otherwise have a big chunk of cash at the ready. If I'm right and it gets back to the low 10s then I'll start to add again and sit heavy for 2025 as the 18 month outlook is very positive. AIMHO GLA

I wouldn't say the daily volumes make this liquid for a company of £400m mcap. If you're selling less than 100k it won't be a problem. But if a lot of people want to do it at the same time. Or a larger holder is offloading, it will either take a very long time at today's rate, or it will smash the share price. It doesn't look as though the company is all that active in courting major funds or IIs to invest, so it's more likely they;re sellers than buyers. Combine this with confetti shares for mgt and staff and it's little wonder we're struggling to break 50p. One way to counter this is to double the BBs. It will take a little time, but I imagine in 1 year we'll be complaining about 60p being a barrier. If mgt don't want to push PR or court major investors, they can do this to attract more Retail and manage anyone offloading (or the -ve impact of their confetti). Needs a decent well result to get us back to the high 40's, alongside some very good Q2 results in 10 weeks. The latter is all but guaranteed with the 900bopd acquisition and 5% higher oil prices. The former is what we need to be strong to get some eyeballs looking back in this direction. AIMHO GLA

I've literally never seen a more illiquid share. This is a £400m company and we've had 6 trades...? Absolutely bonkers. And even crazier they are not increasing the BBs to help liquidity (and support the sp). Makes you wonder how Encompass managed to offload 9m shares. It must have taken an age. Hopefully a good well result soon. GLA

Totally agree Sturm, I was thinking the same thing. How do you know they offloaded over the last week? I figured they must have been selling down gradually over a number of weeks to get away that many shares. If they've stopped then great for the sp. If not, then I agree the company should buy back whatever they don't want at an agreed price. They could remove up to 6% of shares in one swoop if the intention is for them to sell out completely, and cost a maximum of $30m. I'd be more than happy for them to pause BBs for 1 year afterwards. I think after this next update we should have around $100m, which should easily handle a BB of this scale. They also save on dividends as well if keeping them stable. AIMHO GLA

All in all I think this was quite a good update. The issue is the market simply sees the short term numbers, and has no appreciation of the turnaround happening later in the year. It's for this reason I think the sp is going to stagnate in the 10's for another 3-6 months. And why it could drop to the low 10's (and maybe 9's) after the next quarterly update.

The further drop in production for Q2 won't be a surprise for the more knowledgeable posters, but it will read worse than this update. There's also wildfires risk. And gas prices will decrease from these already historically low levels. All in all it will look bleak and people will react accordingly. The green shoots will be obvious for all to see in the Q3 report, with a significant step-up from Q4 report onwards. All going well it will be a stupidly cold winter, pipelines will be operational, and fires will have been minimal. The last point is the one that concerns me the most, as it will coincide with the Q2 update.

Still keeping a core holding and have some cash at the ready should we move toward 10p. Def. see 2025 being the start of the re-rate back to 15p range providing commodity prices improve and the fires aren't worse than last year. Any further drops in the sp over the next 6 months should be no more than 10%. Another joker in the pack is a couple more asset sales that are non-core holdings. I'm really happy they've started to look at their portfolio and starting trimming. They have more reserves than cash to exploit. Better to find a nice balance between the two. AIMHO GLA

Looks like we've found the bottom at 46p. Expecting the sp to strengthen a little on the back of drilling news and ex-divi date (up to 48p). May drop back to 47p post ex-divi but feel it will start to build again from there. The next update should be excellent with production levels +10% higher (Bretana 19kbopd + 900bopd recent acquisition). The average Brent price should be a good 5% higher if we stay around this $80-85 range for the next 6 weeks. All in all we should get a nice cash build setting us up for a big dry season drilling campaign. Back to 50p in another 10 weeks providing Brent holds above $80. Very good value down here at the moment. AIMHO GLA

Not doing the erosion control is straight up stupid. We're extracting oil from one of the most important ecosystems in the world. If things go wrong (and could have been avoided) you simply won't have a business at all. Why not say 'let's stop paying Peruvian taxes', equally f@cking !diotic thing to say.

Simple fact of the matter is the Amazon is the only reliable way to transport +90% of our product. And even then it's impacted by water levels. So until any pipeline is operational and reliably transporting +5kbopd for more than 12 months there's no point even discussing it as an option.