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Bottom line, the outcome here is not going to be anywhere near what people had hoped. So David you are correct in saying that Swindells has a lot to answer for.

To my mind the best outcome is they raise capital with a big fish and our biggest shareholders, and give PIs a chance to participate. If they double the amount of shares in issue but maintain a full 30% holding it will be a big win. Likewise 66% dilution and 20% ownership. Yes the £1 levels will need to be adjusted to 50-60p, but that would still be a hell of a lot better than giving back the license and seeing 10-12p. If they lose Penascola I think this company becomes uninvestable. They will have one field with near term upside. And it would still be a coin flip for them to find something economic. And you'd still have incompetent mgt.

Without a decent stake in Penascola this isn't going anywhere. Mgt need to bite hard on the bullet, stop f@cking about, and get a raise done. Bunch of f@cking clowns to let it get to this point and then turn around and blame the government. I thought a raise at 16p was a likely outcome, but the more this drags on the lower it could get.

Don't majors like Shell and BP offer loans to smaller players / partners?

Both 3LBs. I've still got 3m shares here.

Thanks folks. Just being lazy. So £10m or about 2.4% of shares issues. Just reinforces the need to double that amount if they're giving away half of them to mgt and staff. Company can easily add another $12m and not be stretched.

Trades of less than 100 shares are moving the price up / down by the silly amounts. Real sp range is 10.80-11.05p, which can be seen when anyone wants to buy / sell in excess of 10,000 shares.

What's the maximum BB level for the year?

Guys, this was always going to happen. The news on what they've been up to won;t be landing in the next week, to even fortnight. They'#ll provide an update on the last day of the month that will most likely mention an extension on them being able to raise the funds or finalise a f/o. The only reason something will happen before-hand is because the major shareholders (or perhaps another) have agreed to stump up £5-10m.

It is a game of poker here. If they can find another player who is willing to cough up £5m for 20% of the company, then other major holders will need to find funds to maintain their ownership. If this happens there will be another 65% more shares printed for around £8m, but there's a good chance they can hold onto 20% of the field. In for a penny, in for a pound position for the other holders because if they don;t cough up they lose company ownership, and the company loses more Penascola ownership.

I'll be surprised if these !diots keep going down the f/o route. To me it is dead and buried and they should have known this long ago and refocused on raising capital. I'd like to see them get another decent company on the shareholder roster. Not sure why Dana wouldn't go in for £5m alone. They can get more exposure to Selene, and the benefits of Penascola. DELT gets fully bought in partner, and the other major shareholders either cough up or they lose ownership. This would be a good outcome imo (providing Retail get a chance to participate). Either way folks need to recognise the sp could keep dipping with each day / week to 11p based on an assumption that Penascola is dead and buried. The longer this goes on the worse it will be to raise capital. GLA

Reckon Vista is on the wrong board and that was meant for PTAL - we are talking about GTE NYSE listing over there.

Very funny, good to see there's no concern from anyone here.

Hi Dr, yes I think Selene is worth £15m (at the moment). This is the value of the free carry, so makes sense why the market has the company value pegged to this mcap. However I wouldn't say a 'dry well' is very low probability. The well has a 70% CoS, but successfully finding hydrocarbons doesn't mean it will be economic. I imagine with Penascola being given away the sp will drop to 10-11p and then recover as Selene drill starts turning. But I don't see the sp getting past 20p unless they have an economic strike and/or they keep hold of +10% of Penascola.

Mgt have truly made a mess of things here. They should have been focused on a f/o from the moment they had success with Penasola. And if there were any doubts about being unable to f/o on decent terms they should have raised cash last year. They've had plenty of opportunity to raise an extra £5-10m, which would have put them in a far better negotiating position with any farminees. Absolute incompetence if they cannot get this away on decent terms. The politicians have been ret@rded c@nts for a while now, so they cannot blame their lack of foresight solely on Westminister. AIMHO GLA

Anyone concerned about the Canadian wildfires being reported early this year? They were covered in a BBC article on the weekend. Not centred in Alberta, although it did get a mention.

You could be right Spike. My thinking on any equity raise is our biggest shareholders, and perhaps another player joining, would cough up the cash required. Providing our bigger shareholders maintain their amount of the pie they won't be worse off, just PIs. I'm not sure why they'd want to write off their prior investments for a couple more £m. And if they want the shares at 10p the company can say no deal and hand back Penascola. So it's in their interest to raise at a reasonable value. The company is valued at Selene alone now, so feel this is the right level for any hybrid ownership / raise if they intend to do this. Either way mgt have royally f@cked up on this one. Why they didn't get the deal done last year I have no idea. Amateurs.

They should have doubled the share buy-backs. I think they should aim to take a minimum of 5% of shares (net) out of the market until the valuation starts to correct. They can easily do this. Drilling more wells when we're transport constrained doesn't help at all. They're throwing off a silly amount of cash every quarter so maintain the divi, double the BBs, and keep production stable at 18-20kbopd for the next 12 months whilst transport logistics are solved.

Yeah I just don;t see a reverse split doing anything Bob. It's more the fact that being listed in the UK is poor for valuation across any industry. Canada better, but still doesn't stop the deadweight that is AIM. The reason why GTE has exploded is simply because of the NYSE and all the money in the US market.

there's your answer bob - us listing. it's not about the reverse split, it's about the fact we're listed on the tsx and aim (dog**** place to be), and gte is on the nyse. they value everything more highly than us (& canada).

Where is GTE's primary listing?

So if most on here find it hard to believe that Penascola will be given away for free (I agree wiht btw), there's only two options remaining.

1. f/o on poor terms. If we're to put no money in at all you're looking at holding onto 5% of the field. This would be the worst option imo.

2. capital raise for everything. This would mean doubling the share count. If possible, this would be a better option than 1 (if possible), as we'd still keep hold of 30% of the field and have a decent cash holding for a future f/o on better terms should the appraisal be successful.

3. Combination of one and two. This to me is the best, and easiest avenue to pull off. If the company can raise £8m and command a fee of £1m for 10% ownership give-away they can hold onto 20% of the field. If they can raise £5m and command a £1.5m fee for 15% give-away they can hold onto 15% of the field. Easier to achieve as I think the fee would be reasonable (Serenity got $500k), as would the capital raise. They would need to tap into their cash pile for £1m.

I haven't included a reserve based loan, but if they could do this it would be the best of all options.

I think the main thing here is not to give away too much of the field for nothing, and not give away too much company ownership. Providing they can hold onto 15% or more of the field I think the sp will re-rate to 25-30p very quickly. Capital raise is most likely going to happen, so I imagine they are speaking with our major holders at the moment to see if they would be willing to cough up the requisite £5-8m. Retail will probably give them another £250k if they do a Primary Bid raise with little to no warning. AIMHO GLA

This is such a roll of the dice here. Tempted to get back in but have two concerns 1)they give up the license for nothing (sp drops to 12p then recovers on Selene drilling start-up), 2) they do a mega-raise and 12-15p.

Anyone know for sure whether mgt are restricted from doing a £10m capital raise?

Def. not saying the erosion issue should be side-stepped. That to me is a no-brainer and simply must be done if they want to keep operating in the area. It's more the fact that we're half way through Q2 with Brent averaging $85 and likely 18kbopd. So they know the next quarter will have strong cash generation. Plus they have $85m. The could have paid a 2c dividend and this would have little impact on cash pile now and in the near future. If they're worried about cash they should collar 30-50% of our production. There is no question in my mind this should be done to protect production (stay flat), dividend and BBs. The rest of production is free to peg the market. Personally I'd collar 9kbopd. AIMHO GLA

One thing's for sure, this mgt team aren't particularly concerned about the sp. To not increase the dividend or buy backs when they have the money and dropped some unfortunate news about increased costs was a mistake that caused a reversal. But to then award themselves a ton of shares the very next day is very poor form. Thankfully the fundamentals here are very hard to ignore. If we drop below 45p I'll be adding another 100-150k shares. AIMHO GLA

Agreed damofarl. Not to mention it's higher margin, has production and land position synergies, plus 10 years of low decline recoverable reserves @ 900 bopd (not including any optimisations / interventions). And it cost $5m. Crazy good deal.

SP should have jumped a minimum of 10% today. Perhaps tomorrow's update is going to wake everyone up. GLA