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One avenue that I haven't mentioned, which would be the best case scenario, is finding some parties with deep pockets to raise £10m. This would mean an extra 66% shares in issue at today's sp. They can probably get an additional £1-2m from the market. And they have just over £5m in cash. So it's possible for them to get this over the line and still have a couple of million spare. Or they could try giving an extra 10% to Shell (for a nominal fee) and raise less money. This would mean £10m is required in total for 20% stake in the field. They would then need to raise £7-8m and use some of the £5m cash they have in the bank.

The big question is whether they have already spoken to parties with deep pockets who have said they'll only stump up £Xm at 20p. If this is the case then mgt need the sp to drop to current levels in order to sell the raise to shareholders i.e. it's this offer or we lose the license. Out of interest, does anyone know who our biggest shareholders happen to be, and how much skin they have in this company?

If this is what happens then it's already been agreed. If I was worth a lot of money I'd see this as a pretty safe bet. The issue isn't the government at the moment, although they are a bunch of h@lfwit c@nts. The issue is getting the cash to appraise a multi-decade discovery to re-rate the sp. It is years away from development but the start-up value is now.

If indeed a raise is announced in the coming weeks then I'll come back for more. They will have 2 guaranteed drills. And will have maintained higher ownership of a potentially huge gas field (although at the cost of significant dilution). If this happens then I feel the sp could re-rate quite quickly to +30p. Only good if they offer the same deal to PIs and you have cash spare though. Will have to wait and see now.

AIM is so murky.

To answer your earlier question, yes I'm completely out of DELT. Too much risk now.

As for the f/o, given they managed such a great deal recently on Selene (well to be drilled in July) I think it was fair to assume the f/o was nailed on, and only a matter of getting decent terms. For it to not only fall over, but be flagged as potentially worthless and handed to Shell is almost unbelievable.

I have no idea where they go from here, but think the best case scenario would be to find some parties with deep pockets and raise £10-12m. This would mean an extra 50% shares in issue at today's sp. They can probably get an additional £1-2m from the market. And they have £5m in cash. So it's possible for them to get this over the line. And I won't at all be surprised if they manage to pull it off at this sp. If they do then I'll probably go back and pick some shares up as they're likely to jump very quickly post raise with 2 guaranteed drills and having maintained 30% of their significant discovery. Will have to wait and see now. They may have already spoken to parties who have said they'll stump up the money at 20p so need the sp to drop to these levels in order to sell the raise. Who knows. As you've said, this is AIM and you only need to look at what happened with SHG to see how murky the waters are in this market.

Thanks Stas. I have to say when I woke up and saw the rns today I thought the complete opposite was going to happen. I took a £100k hit today, which is a good (and last) lesson for me on speccies. My immense dislike of UK political parties knows no bounds at the moment, so agree on all Nth Sea comments today. The entire UK O&G industry is about to be wiped out by successive ret@rded governments. Not sure we could even sell a unified Tain and Serenity if they picked up the Tain license so probably best to drop and focus on Canada. I doubt this will have any impact on the sp as well.

truly ugly. not sure why i bother with speccies. turns out i was the rainbow chasing lemming on this one. sorry to those i dragged across on this.

can't put into words how much i hate the political parties in this country. plus side they have got £5m cash in the bank and a high impact fully carried well in a few months to retain value. there's also the outside chance of a f/o, but imagine this will be on rubbish terms unless this is all about pushing an existing party for a deal. or there's an asset sale rather than handing it over to shell. shell is the big winner on this one. incredible delt cannot borrow and raise £12m. reckon pis would give them £2m. it was about finding the extra £10m.

flag has been put up today. full disclosure i dropped 100k yesterday and another 500k this morning at 21p. have been hit for £200k in 1 week with i3e taking a bath in this time as well. what a ****ed week this has been. last time i got smashed by this much was when the uk shutdown for the pandemic.

full disclosure i dropped 100k yesterday (thankfully) and the remaining today at an average of 21p. have been hit for £200k in 1 week with i3e taking a bath in this time as well. what a ****ed week this has been. last time i got smashed by this much was when the uk shutdown for the pandemic. good luck to all remaining holders. too risky for me and should have learnt my lesson on speccies by now.

still can't believe this exploration find can't find a partner thanks to our f@cking id!otic political parties.

As for being a long term investor, I've been here since the insider trading days of our failed Nth Sea exploration wells. So Tony and I have been sparring every now and then for years. How long have you been an 'investor' here? Sounds like you're a bit salty about the recent pull back. Don't worry, it's part of being an investor in i3e. You'll get used to it if you stay here for a few years.

bit of a weird little rant there ibb. firstly, i'm not sure anyone on here kisses my feet, and certainly not tony. i'd also say it depends on how you define the word 'investor', but holding onto a stock when it's likely to go down isn't exactly smart investing now is it. i'm guessing you're one of those types who believes 'investing' is sitting in a stock no matter what. thankfully i'm not, which is why i managed to get out in the high teens and buy back in the 9's. you should try it some time.

as for 'doing homework', who gives a ****. it's not about who provides the information, it's what you do with it. i like to read everyone's views on here, positive and negative, and appreciate the workings of people like tony. ultimately it's my call on where to 'invest', and it all boils down to whether you're making money or not. thankfully i've done alright out of i3e. nowhere near as well as i could have done, but nowhere near as bad if i held all the way down to the 9's.

and yeah i like to call my trades, in and out, like many on here. i'll let you know when i start accumulating again :)

It would be even more disappointing if in another 2 years we're still below 16p though. Have to keep in mind we've been given a couple of pennies in dividends the past 2 years. But if I were a major holder right now I'd be very tempted to take 16p rather than sitting and hoping AECO is resurrected in the next 24 months. This is why 16p I think would be considered given where we are now. AIMHO GLA

one more thing i should add is we're a very tasty t/o option right now. no debt, 180m 2p reserves, **** ton of drill ready locations, and likely commodity price upside from all the pipelines coming online and access to global gas market. that's the other possible outcome here. and the longer we stay at these levels the more attractive a t/o offer will be for our major shareholders. reckon 16p would get over the line right now. aimho gla

Stas, you were right that it was me offloading last week. I dropped about 1.5m shares at an average of 11.4p. I was hovering before the development plan wet f@rt landed - I got 150k away in the high 12's the day before and was going to drop 1m. Only if eh.

Very good value again now. Anything up to 11.5p is good to very good value with +$70m NOI and +20k production. Anything near 10p and I'll be shifting a lot of cash back into here. Horrible to watch £100k evaporate in two trading sessions. Hopefully a bounce back up to 11p which seems fair value until we see the direction of AECO.

Reckon this is a hold until H2 before seeing some strength if gas prices turn upwards and look to be staying there for the next year or two. If so I think this will bounce back to the 13-15p range this time next year. As another poster has commented, any other jumps will rely on more asset / land disposals, or a decent f/o. For those of you hoping for director buys, good luck on that one. Majid won't part with anything substantial from his $600,000 salary. He prefers to take cheap options instead. One thing that would help is a reinstatement of the monthly dividend. If AECO improves then 25-35% value uplift and a 10% dividend on top over the next 12 months. Decent return, but it will require AECO to take a step-up in that time. Decent numbers and good safety margin in between though. GLA

Agree on retaining a contingency fund, but one needs to keep in mind we'll have +$100m in the bank at the end of Q2. That's one hell of a contingency fund when the sp is below 50p. My shares are in an ISA so nothing other than 15% tax for me, which is why I don't mind the increased dividend option. But if they increase BBs to the maximum allowable amount and retain the base dividend I'd be happy. They have the money to do it, and you should only do it when there's a disconnect like what we're seeing now. Either way they need to do something. The sp is a joke given production and cash in bank. Brent also doesn't look like it's going to do anything silly. Having said that I'd hedge a decent chunk of production (about 1/3rd) in the mid 80's right now. Doing so at a good historical level will protect the dividend, BBs, and the contingency fund. Would be silly not to do it. AIMHO GLA

I'm unsure what their allowable limit is on buybacks, but they need to throw some of their cash at them. In general I think buy-backs are a complete waste of time and money. However when a company is this under-valued, illiquid, and has so much cash in the bank, it's a no-brainer. However it has to be done in a way where they are taking 5-10% of shares in issue off the table each year. Otherwise it's a complete w@nk, like now. Either push the BBs to their limit, or give the cash back to shareholders with increased quarterly dividends. But having it sitting there doing nothing is plain stupid. GLA

Absolutely dropping like a stone. Clearly quite a shock for most. Imagine some value buyers will be jumping in around now. Yield is about 9% now.

Look at Q4 RNS in late February. I was pleasantly surprised by the below numbers at the time. Still doesn't make today's numbers look any good though. Are they planning to drill a lot of gassy wells with this $50m? I know development is back weighted but the numbers 2024 don't look great. Having said that, value is looking much better after taking a 10% knee to the nuts.

· Full year 2023 net operating income ("NOI")1 (unaudited) is approximated at USD 93 million, in line with guidance, with year-end 2023 Net Debt2 expected to be approximately USD 23 million (unaudited).

Stas, I think your 2023 numbers are out to begin with, but today's figures are undoubtedly not numbers the market was expecting. We've just been sucker punched 10%, which is probably fair given what they've just quoted. Basically a wait and see job. They provided December NOI / EBITDA numbers to indicate how much end of year will be contributing to this year's numbers, and next.

I think the only way we'll get back to the 20's is with gas strengthening to an average CAD$3.00 or above. Many posters are certain gas prices are going to strengthen at year end, and into 2025. So not that long to wait.

Good thing is they can now safely throw USD$50m at oil development over the next 12 months so even if gas remains subdued there's a decent chance we'll be in the high teens based on greater oil production. Plus we can pick up a guaranteed 8% yield whilst we wait for production and gas prices to increase. This will be a slow build, but certainly looks good for 30-50% (inc. dividends) over the next year. Looking forward to the development plan. GLA

This is the first trickle of news to come through. Once we get the f/o confirmed for Penascola then we're off to the races. Not including the next licensing round, there should be regular news flow from June. This is just 5 weeks away. Success case at Selene and the NPV10 here is going to be circa £200m, assuming we retain a reasonable stake in Penascola. That's a lot of upside over the coming months. GLA

I'd certainly hope they're going to hold the dividend at $2c. Ideally they'll increase the payout with a special divi if they're restricted in what they can spend on buy-backs. Very good value again down here. Anything below 48p is a steal and paying 13.5% yield. Hopefully Barclays and II are finally going to shift the remainder of my ISA across and I can access some cash to add here. GLA

Are these guys able to increase the value of their daily buy backs? Absolutely pitiful at the moment, and almost pointless.

Agree Dr P on the Penascola deal being the one that has potential to significantly re-rate the sp as it will open up all the milestones and news flow for 2 x major dills in H2. Having said that, it will ultimately come down to the deal itself. If the value of the deal is similar to Penascola for us, then we could jump quite a lot, quite quickly. Anything starting with a '5' or more before we get results would be a great springboard should we have success at Selene. That's where 100p starts to look like a realistic target.

Either way it's all down to the terms of the Penascola f/o now. Not long to wait before we find out. GLA

Holding pattern over the next 2 weeks unless we get news. Reckon we will start to edge up from mid-May as most will realise the f/o could land any day. Providing it's a solid deal I see us in the mid 50's within a week or two. GLA