RE: Time for a small competition !!22 Mar 2024 15:30
SP on the day of a confirmed deal depends entirely on the deal itself, regardless of farm down or capital raise. What I will say is I believe a raise will be very near, or higher, than the current sp. This will undoubtedly happen with major shareholders. We'll end up giving away 30% of the company, but maintain greater share of Selene (and any spoils).
As for any crazy share price one way or another, the highs are only going to depend on what we find. With a farm down and losing another 5-10% we may get to 40p after a couple of days. The climb will really start as newsflow begins for all the drills. And getting anywhere near 100p will depend on us hitting / proving up their estimates in at least one of the targets. As for dropping to 10p, this simply isn't going to happen. They've got that in cash. And they will easily be able to do a raise for £12m, no doubt. As a partner that's exactly what I'd want as I'd get two fields with my ownership, which is why I think a raise won't be at much of a discount.
Bottom line, the answer is 'how long is a piece of string?'. But if you make me guess I'll say 35p within 4 weeks post raise (@30p) and 40p with a farm down of 10% or less of field ownership. The funding won't fall through so not much point in going the other way. They'll either farm down or do a raise. So the absolute bottom in my opinion is 25p (post 30p raise) before a climb with every piece of news.
The more interesting question is what will be the share price when the first drill starts turning. I'll go with 50p. And I think it will be 60p just before the first news hits. The AIM lemmings will start piling in the weeks leading up to drill announcement and the 6 weeks in between spud and result. They'll let you double your money with no risk. Any guesses after that is just that, a guess. GLA