Member Info for G_G_G

Good points somekindof. Bottom line is we're highly under-valued down here. One would think the only way is up given current poo, recent acquisition, circa USD$100m cash, 12% dividend yield, and 17kbopd production. SP is quite ridiculous.

Stas, the sp seriously doesn't bother me going up or down. Remember I've still got over 2m shares here. It also doesn't change my view that AECO is going to stay below CAD$1 for the next few months and the sp is likely to stay in single digits until we get safely above CAD$1.50. I've stupidly been calling single digits at this time of year when we were still in the 11's but didn't sell down completely.

Also not sure it matters who is selling. What matters is a lot of shares have been dropped into the market recently and it's obviously not the best time to see such things with sentiment pretty poor right now.

Gas cratering and a major seller. Sucks.

Agree about capital appreciation BBB. I have a feeling the market just needs to see some +ve news around Q2 production and cash generation. And pone would hope no more Capex surprises. Some good results, +ve news on transportation options, and another 1.5c dividend allocation should see us back above 45p. Not sure where you get dividend at 15%...? I have it at 12% (6c annual payment), which is still silly. Happy to sit and wait now. GLA

BBs restarting would help as well. I don;t understand wtf is holding them up on this.

Just picked up 50k at 41.4p to try and pull my average down to something a little more respectable. Holding 600k at 45.9p. I tell myself it's sub 45p with recent divi included just to make things sound better, but would much prefer to be able to take it as incremental income. Another divi and my average is effectively sub 44p, which appears to be our mid point since early 2022. Trend is still leaning upwards so expect another run to +50p in the coming months providing Brent holds above $80. Another acquisition with some solid Q2 results should do the trick. GLA

Another 25k at 30.62p for me. Someone still offloading. Holding 750k at 32.65p average. No more for me until we get vote news and sp reaction. Hard to tell which way it will go, but one would think with immediate production levels of circa 12kboepd and a liquids rating of +30%, we should be worth more than USD$100m. Year end exit rates should be +15kboepd even if they miss Casc guidance by 15%. And we'll pick up +$5m in cash. It would require quite a few, big f@ck ups for things to go down much further from here. AIMHO GLA

Yeah it's hard to hold back after I've just posted about the potential gains in the event the deal closes and Casc is delivered on target. One of these things will be covered in the next week or so. The other requires a few more months. Hard to see this not going back to 50-60p by year end if they deliver on their promises. My absolute maximum is 1m shares but want to see TRIN close and the subsequent reaction first. Will pick up another 25k then sit for a while. GLA

i don;t think it's about the reverse split, but more to do with a us listing. the us values everything far higher than the rest of the world. o&g is no different. if you want to see the sp go up by 50-100% then de-list from dog**** london and list in the us. not the simplest thing to do, but will guarantee a significant re-rate in value. picked up another 50k just now under 41.5p. crazy share price given the step-up in production, delivery, and cash on the books since we were last at these levels. none of the issues we've seen previously, dividend is now huge, and brent is still above usd$80. goes to show the value of a uk listing. aimho gla

Not me. Also think they were sells at that price, which would explain the sp drop the past couple of days. Still think this could go lower. Gas prices driving down the sp. Reckon it could re-visit the 8's if AECO stays closer to CAD 50c for the next 2 months, which is likely. I think that would be the limit given hedges in place and WTI remaining above $75. Only thing that could take it lower is if they cut the dividend. This would be the worst decision they could make. It would be better to take cash from Capex if required.

Incredible how much this company gets punished by commodity prices movements. AIMHO GLA

The sp will recover providing they deliver Casc on time, budget, and target rates. The TRIN deal was decent for TRIN holders at the beginning. The market has then re-valued the deal, and thrown in a good dose of pessimism thanks to Casc declines. Currently the deal is close to 30% less than the original offer. So the vast majority of TRIN holders are at a loss overall, and need to vote on whether TRIN will appreciate quicker than combined TRIN/TXP combined. Given irrevocable undertakings I think the deal closes, and I doubt there will be any further selling.

Basically anything at this price is a gift. The combined value of the company is now just over USD$100m for combined funds flow from ops at USD$42m. Value for TRIN now at USD$20m. People need to keep in mind that TRIN comes with over USD$5m net cash. If you remove this from current values then USD$15m gets you USD$10m funds flow from ops, 2,790 bopd production (oil), and circa 13m 2P reserves. Basically give-away levels.

If current Casc (and future wells) deliver the combined EV:EBITDA and EV:NOI multiples will be pretty ridiculous in 12 months. And the more Casc wells they drill the crazier things will get. Very little risk at these levels imo. I think the slightest whiff of good news and this will be back to the 40's. Good news would be the deal closing, and Casc being hooked up on time. If Casc flow rates are as expected (or better) then 50-60p will be the new channel.

I just now picked up another 2 x 25k at 30.825. Holding 725k at 32.7p. Will buy more on any further weakness. GLA

No too bad @ USD$2. I'm in i3e and the AECO gas price is about $0.35. That's right, it's at 35c. May as well give it away. I think the only thing stopping the sp for imploding are the oil price, hedging, and the promise of LNG Canada. F@cking ridiculous that Canada has been effectively giving away their resources for nothing all these years. Also reinforces the importance of product mix. If i3e didn't have a reasonable % of liquids it would be f@cked. If we go into the 20's then I'm going to buy a few more. Currently 675k @ 32.85p. GLA

I think trimming capex will be far less detrimental to the sp than trimming the dividend. If they drop the divi by 10% the sp will drop by at least the same amount. Given capex is back end weighted they have a lot more time to work out the best course of action without having to tell the market until year-end. Hopefully Winter will be blisteringly cold and LNG Canada will be pushing gas prices higher. Either way I see the sp going lower over the next couple of months. The only thing that can help is another non-core asset disposal on good / great terms. AIMHO GLA

Well I just picked up 2 x 50k in the 41.6's. Average now 46.7p and 45.5p if including the dividend. Hopefully some positive news at the AGM, or at least a reminder of the value proposition here. Even though they have increased costs for erosion control, they are still pumping 17kbopd and have the acquisition bopd up their sleeve as well. And poo is still holding above $80 so it's hard to see why we're in the low 40's. BBs restarting would help as well. Have a great w/e all.

Jesus the divi is now paying out near 11% (inc. Canadian withholding tax). Not sure what EV:EBITDA numbers look like now? Let alone with the recent 900bopd light oil addition. SP getting silly. Anyone would think that Brent is in the 60's rather than 80's. Even with additional erosion costs the amount of cash we're throwing off is silly.

Out of interest, what do we normally see when divi is paid - do we get a bump in SP? Would be good to know when these muppets are going to re-start the BB program. Never seen such an illiquid company of this size. And to not be on top of BBs when the sp is slipping in this way is ridiculous.

SP getting low enough that you wonder whether the TRIN could collapse. I think it's a good deal all round for everyone so hopefully TRIN holders will see the benefit of being part of a company that is likely to double in the next 12-18 months, which I don't feel is realistic if they remained in TRIN only. Maybe we'll get dropped to £70m mcap (combined £84m or $100m USD). When you start crunching numbers based on this combined mcap they start to get silly at year end. This of course relies on them hitting (or getting near) exit rates for 2024. Combined value from +15kboepd with +25% liquids will be pretty good.

Quick one, where can one find the current / future pricing for our gas?

Agree tc. My take is PB saying what he knows the TRIN government wants to hear to get the licenses signed off quickly. I don't see them putting a well in the ground next year, and maximum of one in 2026. And even then I would prefer them to focus on Casc.

They have enough on their hands with fixing / drilling / optimising Casc. This should be their absolute focus for the next 18 months as it's the future of the company. Not sure if we'll get more weakness - will very much depend on TRIN vote and Casc development timings plus decline rates. If TRIN is passed (expected), Casc declines start to taper (unknown), and Casc 2&3 production looks to be on time (unknown), then back to the 40's is my guess. With solid production rates from the new Casc wells then 50-60p very quickly afterwards and the 'wall of cash' will start getting built. Lots of news over the next 4 months. GLA

How are folks feeling about AECO price? It's heading toward negative territory. When is the realistic expectation of gas prices recovering...?

There's the 9's then.

Is that $200m in tax losses accurate?