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you get replies sturm...? perhaps i need to change my tone :))

agree the value equation here is looking very good. i too looked at the june numbers and thought we're going to break guidance quite easily if june continues at 20bopd or more. that's also not taking into account ecuador transportation route being utilised @ 3.3kbopd (over 1 month i believe). reckon +3kbopd for q3 is looking very likely. more than enough incremental cash to pay down excess erosion control costs. and that's not considering the acquisition production of 850-900bopd at higher pricing.

we should be safely sitting above 50p based on quite significant realities - production, poo, cash build, barge capacity / transportation, additional transportation options, and reserves. sp history when these things weren't the case and the locals were rioting was the same as now. even poo is looking highly likely to maintain +usd$80 for the remainder of the year. every extra $1 in poo @ 15kbopd average for h2 equates to around $450k per month in sales revenue. if brent averages $85 that's an additional $13.5m sales revenue.

malcy is full of **** with this estimates, but for this not to be banging on the door of 60p is mind boggling. if we were listed in the us and not uk the sp would be 2-3x current.

AECO still climbing I see. Wildfires...?

Hi Sturm, what's the catch with Valeura before I do some research? Geo-political? Reserves? There's usually something.

Quite solid set of results btw. Would be good if they could provide some more information on expected production and delivery numbers for Q3 and Q4. And progress on our recent acquisition. F@cking BBs also need to re-start. Expecting another big dividend yield soon. GLA

Suggest you guys start emailing the company with some angry notes about BBs. They have done 50k since this year's was approved. F@cking ridiculous to not be on top of these things with $96m in cash and +18kbopd production. They're also going to get a big cash injection from the recent acquisition, which will have paid for itself once transferred to us.

Given them some stick about the BBs.

Yeah I read the same thing Vista. Quite a jump. Could be a knee jerk reaction though. Expecting us to drop back to the low 9's now the ex-divi date has passed, as is the way here. GLA

Agree Even. It's why I keep saying this will jump by at least 50% once they can demonstrate execution and understanding of the geology. The ability to scale production at low capital outlay is very good here. If we drop back to 30-31p I'll even add a few more.

Even, the Capex you've quoted for PTAL covers more than just production. For instance the water disposal wells that have been drilled are now complete and only required when they surpass 20kbopd. So these costs won't continue at the same rate. And given the decline rates they see it's actually a very good result to be increasing production by a relatively substantial amount from a relatively substantial base.

For i3e it's about the timing of the wells being late H2 going into H1 next year. Their 'break-even' capex investment is more like USD30m to maintain 20kbepd next year. i3e is a good example of what happens if you pull back on Capex form a large production based (20kboepd), and that's with decline rates of only 15%.

Anyone know what's going on with AECO prices?

Even but your figures for PTAL and i3e are way out, otherwise good post.

Ayecuramba, yes that's correct the decline rate lessens by year i.e. is not linear. Having said that, the decline shape we have is pretty steep, and this will probably be similar for the first 12 months of any new well drilled. We're tracking at +50% production decline in year 1. So with 4 Casc wells in operation from Q4 and a 14kboepd exit rate (TXP assets only), we'll need to be drilling another 2 wells next year to maintain 14kboepd (roughly speaking). To grow beyond 20kboepd we'll need 4-5 wells, keeping in mind they will be halving in production for their first 12 months, then declining at a lower amount each year thereafter. Either way we need at least 3 Casc wells next year to improve on 14kboepd exit rate for the TXP assets. Easily done providing they know what they're doing.

Agree we won;t see £1.50, or even £1 unless they de-list from the lse. US listing would dramatically change things. As would a TSX only listing. The UK is a f@cking joke market to rely on if you're in the O&G sector.

Matt, I think you need to keep in mind decline rates when making these estimates. At the moment they're pretty steep. They'll need to be adding another Casc well every 3-4 months just to maintain 17kboepd after Casc 2 & 3 are drilled. I haven't done the maths but would think they'll need at least another 5 x Casc wells next year to exit +20kboepd. Should be doable, but they need to show they can execute and understand the geology first.

I believe the Lot 8 boat has already sailed BBB. Perhaps they were waiting on an announcement before deploying cash. No reason to wait now. They are also overdue on the Q2 Ops update. To be honest I don;t mind that we didn't pick up the Lot 8 workload. I think they have enough on their hands with maximising production and DELIVERY from existing assets. They also need to get a grip on the erosion works and costs. Small, synergistic, producing acquisitions make sense when you look at the recent deal. Anything bigger and they'll spread themselves too thin. Missing out on Lot 8 was a blessing in disguise.

Mcap at just over USD$100m for the combined company. If they hit guidance they will be producing 16-17kboepd with roughly 30% liquids. This in itself doesn't make the company more grossly under-valued than another on AIM called i3e. To be fair it puts them at similar levels on the value front, except i3e is paying a 10% dividend. PTAL is another and even more under-valued O&G producer, except the country, environmental and transport risks there are relatively large.

The big difference is TXP has the ability to scale production at quite low outlay. This gives TXP an edge imo, but only if they can prove execution and understanding of Casc geology. If so, there will be a 50% re-rate to be had here in short order. The forward EV:EBITDA will put TXP on a better footing. This company also has the advantage of being one that can gain serious interest due to resource upside, which can be seen in the spikes of last few years. Just a matter of waiting and keeping fingers crossed that PB delivers on his words now. Deal for all intents and purposes closed now. It's about decline rates, and Casc 2 & 3 meeting timing and production forecasts. Back to sleep for another 3 weeks then the fun begins. GLA

i sent a very ****ty email to investor relations about bbs. suggest others do the same. to do nothing when you have a huge cash pile, permission to do bbs, and the sp in the toilet, is absolutely f@cked. mgt need to give their brokers a punch in the face on behalf of their investors.

Second time I've said a little boiler crew has been at work here. Funny how posters pop up just after a mini share price surge then disappear again. Thing about TXP is it has so much news coming, and has never been in a better place as a producer. The last time we were at these levels was the three months post shut-down. Not sure they'll get another chance at rinse / repeat. People will however get another chance to climb aboard at very good sp before the news cycle hits over the next 3 months, allowing for a couple of weeks delays.

End September was touted as hook up date. Expecting some flow results shortly thereafter. Deal closing and some decent decline results with evidence of them having a greater understanding of the geology and this will pop into the 40's by mid next month. Some good / great flow results and we're back into the 50-60p channel by end-October. If we get a bunch of lemmings running this way it may even break 60p. Will need some big words from PB and associated PR form Malcy and co for that to happen. Still very good for 50% in 3 months. AIMHO GLA

Well that's disappointing. What's more is the lack of f@cking buybacks. What the f@ck are they waiting for...?

Hi Viable, was Lot 8 something that we considering picking up? Does anyone know much about this acreage and what all those wells are likely to produce?

Very good numbers to date. Providing we deliver similar Q3/4 numbers to last year we're on track to hit 16kbopd for the year when accounting for our new acquisition. If the Ecuador pipeline pilot is a success we should be on the upper end of that range. Absolutely bonkers valuation at the moment. Expecting a 5-10% bounce on Q2 numbers providing we get no nasty surprises. GLA