Member Info for G_G_G

There is no way that TXP walks away from this without getting a payout. LOL should have bid something lower and then offered the difference in cash to TXP. This would have made things easier on everyone. Now they're going to have to wait until January at least before they MIGHT be able to win any vote.

Does anyone know when the LOL offer vote is due to take place? With 41.5% immediately voting against I cannot see it getting approved. Are they going to wait until January 2025 before the vote can take place? And if so you're going to have to wait another 4 months before anything becomes effective. Lots can happen between now and then. LOL can also pull their offer. The only way this will go through without becoming a mess is with a payment of a couple of $m. Good thing TRIN has that little cash pile.

Oh, and if the TXP deal was to go ahead you'd have more money in 6 months. TXP + TRIN would take the share price of the combined entity to 50-60p by Q1 next year. They would be throwing off quite a bit of cash and have the ability to drill an immense amount of gas. TRIN's role is to pay for 1.5 Casc wells each year.

Why would Touchstone release them from any deal. They have a vote that has passed. And they have 41.5% of current voter share. TRIN have tried to pull a swifty and are now flailing. There is no way they can get a vote over the line.

Does anyone know when the vote on the Lease Operators offer is meant to take place? I'd be happy for TXP to walk providing TRIN give us the cash they have in their accounts (or most of it). It will pay for another Casc well. Seems fair.

Nowhere safe at the moment. Even goldies are dropping hard. At least we pick up a very solid (and safe) divi here. Tin hats folks.

So what is the out-take here then? That TRIN cannot get out of the original deal in any way? And if so, what are the next steps? Hopefully this doesn't drag on. If we cannot win with the original offer then we should walk. The great thing is if we do win PB can swing a very big axe at TRIN board members. This whole thing appears to be a shake down for more money.

We've got our Casc production update. I think next week is more about Casc 2&3 progress, and plans for Casc over the next 12 months. They will also need to update on full year guidance (hopefully without any nasty surprises). And provide another update on TRIN. There's plenty to do with our main assets. TRIN is a small earner, that will pay for another Casc well on closing with cash, and another well each year. It makes sense to use as a cash cow to fast-track development on Casc.

Still feeling very good about the next 4 months. Hopefully this TRIN mess will be cleared int he next fortnight and we don;t get into any legal wrangling. AIMHO GLA

I don't understand why we don't just remove our t/o offer. Seems pointless to even bother waiting for the TRIN shareholders to vote. Pull it, and get on with things. PB needs to give his head a wobble if he thinks anything is going to change.

Thanks Tony. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the upcoming results. They're not going to read well to those who are unfamiliar with the company, and unaware of its short-mid term growth plans, plus expected future commodity pricing. The sp has been getting hammered recently so represents very good value even with the upcoming softer numbers. The hard floor that we have seems to be £100m mcap, which we saw in February when we dipped to 8.5p. So any drop to these levels would be a gift for those with cash. I've been buying my way down and will drop in more if we hit the 8's, which appears to be a possibility. No real concerns from me here otherwise. Just need the divi to continue, drilling plans to be exercised, and LNG Canada to support +CAD$3 AECO pricing on an annual basis.

Looking forward to next week's update. Should be a very good one given production and poo. We'll also have updates on acquisition, Ecuador transportation route, dividend, BBs, and hopefully a nice left-field surprise e.g. another great acquisition or payments from OCP. I'll be disappointed if they don't raise the divi pay-out given our cash situation. Given the 'knowns' we should get back above 45p. And if we can't hold this price then god knows what is going to get us there. Very good income earner at least. Looking forward to next Thursday. GLA

If a formal offer has been made PB should update the market and communicate that we don't intend to make a counter offer. It's f@cking stupid to wait if we know these things to be true. He needs to pull his head in, stop chasing new and shiny things, and focus on Casc. TRIN isn't great value for the price being paid, and we shouldn't be going anywhere near making a similar offer. Cash and effort on Casc!

Agreed. They need to focus on Casc and generating the 'wall of cash'. They've spent too long f@cking around on this as it is. TRIN was fine when we had re-rated the value with our sp (to the detriment of TXP holders). One would expect with the recent Casc news, and TRIN offer falling over, that we should bounce back up to 40p. Still haven't seen an RNS that states a formal offer has been made. Just the newswire article.

PB would be an id!ot if he goes back with a higher offer. He hasn;t even gotten Casc right yet. Man should focus on the prize, rather than looking for something new. Exec in my company love 'shiny and new', and neglect the core business. The 'core' is what makes the business. Something senior execs often forget.

not that i give a ****. in the long run we don't need them, and it would have been added complications. and they're clearly an unreliable mob. better off without.

Has there been confirmation of a formal offer? Nothing on TRIN or here stating it clearly.

hi mommur, yeah i **** the bed on sqz. worst thing is i started early on the selling and i'd literally offloaded my last 10k shares at 125 yesterday before the sp spiked up to 132. if i'd held for an extra day i'd have a £2k profit rather than a £4.5k loss.

this one however is a mystery. the selling over the past 3 days has been consistent, with quite a few +100k sells. from memory there's been a few 4-500k sells. commodity prices don;t help, but there's clearly a seller about with quite a decent sized holding. i've picked up close to 1.5m shares the past few days at an average of circa 9.6p. hoped, but never thought i'd be able to get these levels again. will be interesting to see how long it lasts. the fact they're selling when divi reinvestment starts today is odd. the 9.44 and 9.45 buys were my divi reinvestments this morning. gla

Been calling my buys as I've been doing them the last few days Super. I'm the one buying the shares being offloaded :) Shame I've been paying in the high 9's more than the low 9's. I've got more money though, so if it stays down here I'll be picking up more. GLA

Thanks Geld. Looks like 14.5kboepd is a very realistic target. And that's without TRIN if we pick up those assets. Immediate cash from TRIN is one extra well in Casc. Reckon by end Q1 they could be getting near 20kboepd. Commodity pricing for gas also very good. Getting quite excited now about end-September. TRIN doesn't really matter all that much in the grand scheme of things, but would help us to break the 20kboepd barrier in 6 months, alongside generating enough cash to maintain production and add another well in Casc each year. Target at 50p by end of year looking much more likely after today's RNS. Time to sit back and enjoy now. GLA

Jesus the selling here is relentless. Divi reinvestment over the next few days should stop the spiral unless it's one of our major holders offloading. Not massive volume but enough to keep us in the low 9's. Just picked up another 2 x 65k at 9.42p. Crazy price.

What do folks expect Casc 2&3 to deliver, realistically and optimistically (not ridiculously)?

And is it realistic that we'll get 2 more wells at B Pad drilled this year and hooked up?

I'm trying to work out whether the 14.5kboepd is going to happen (or not). Funny thing is the more the sp increases the higher the offer for TRIN. Having said that, the sp will be capped by the offer until we know one way or another whether we'll get the assets. Starting to think we're better off without them. And if we do end up with TRIN I'd like the entirety of their exec team to be booted. Our bod have more than enough reason to do this. Good to see us breaking upwards for once. Shame I offloaded 250k at 30.5p when the TRIN news landed. Still got 650k though :) Onwards to the 40's. GLA

You're scratching at an old wound there Deepjoy :) Figure if someone is willing to sell me shares below my average then I'll buy them. Just need PTAL to regain some of its mojo and I'll shift some of that money over here. Currently in way too deep @ 750k shares with them. I'm going to sit in TXP for the next few months after today's rns. Reckon that will go for a run back to the mid 40's very easily if Casc 2&3 are hooked up without drama early Q4. If that happens and we're still in the 9's I'll buy much more here. I feel this is the safest place to put my money pretty much across AIM O&G. Just needs the AECO pricing to do as expected post LNG Canada coming online and this will be back to the 12-13p range quite quickly. My guess is end Q1 2025. If war breaks out in the middle east then all bets are off. Would like to see some more gas hedges being put in place as well. We should be able to get good forward pricing for Q4/1 and next year. AIMHO GLA

Someone dumping hard. The 150k @ 9.6p and 250k at 9.58p were my buys btw. Back up to 3m shares with average at 9.75p. Incredible I could pick up 250k at that price.

What's the thinking on yesterday's selling? Poo hasn't helped recently, but I also saw wildfires pop up in the news again - anyone know how close they are to our production? Figure the flipside of the fires is gas prices have been much stronger than expected. Averaging CAD $0.90, whereas I though they would be closer to CAD$0.60. Everything looking better than now for the short to medium term (6-18 months). Probably just jinxed it now.

Just bought 50k @ 41.175p. Must be a big b/g sell going through for me to get this price. Hope I don't live to regret it.