Member Info for G_G_G

What makes you say that Rylidan? Even if the No's have it, there will be another bid incoming. And if not, who cares. We'll be back at this level in 6 months.

well at least we go ex-divi in a couple of days. question is whether anyone gives a ****.

Agree Sturm. Those 2 x 50k trades were mine this morning. Just 100k and this moves up. Will be interesting to see what happens when we start shifting millions per day. Clock is ticking and I only see one direction in the coming weeks whilst we await hook-up and flow rates. GLA

Whoops spoke too soon. Just picked up 75k at 12.38p. Will get some more for the No vote if we're at this level or below.

I'm going to stick my neck out here and say that JPM at the very least are acquiring to say 'No' and get an extra 10%. Or they're aware of another bid incoming. They're sneaky f@cks and a good lead indicator of what to expect.

We really don't need a lot against to get this offer shot down.

Also noting the buy is at 12.98p. We haven't gotten this high before and would suggest buying pressure is building to knock this down. This offer could have been to flush out a counter above 15p (he says with rose tinted glasses). GLA

Agreed folks, providing of course they execute according to timings and deliver forecast rates. The first big step-up will be 4 weeks from now providing everything goes to plan. They'll prove they can execute. And if the flow rates are the same or better that our first 2 Casc wells, then we should be in for a quick re-rate back to the low 40's i.e. the sp prior to the TRIN announcement. The next 2 x wells and 50-60p will be the new channel until more wells are drilled and hooked up.

As for the reasons provided by SS, I'll go with a combination of lemmings selling and chasing other rainbows whilst waiting on Casc 2 & 3. Some will be returning in 1-2 weeks pre-hook-up. Some will jump in when they read successful hook-up, and the majority (stragglers) will get in on flow rates. Expect sp will move back to the mid 30's in 2-3 weeks, mid to high 30's on successful hook-up, and low 40's on flow rates. As is the way on AIM. GLA

reason why i think a counter offer will land is i believe polus has been the driving the 'for sale' sign being put up. i think they have basically told majid they want out, and that kickstarted the whole thing. this doesn't excuse mgt from recommending an absolute dog**** deal. but if the purpose is to force another hand into making an offer then at least the clock is ticking. if we drop back to the 12.25-35 level i'll pick up another 400k for a total of 4.5m shares. it will raise my average to 10p. i'll still be voting no on this as i'm quite confident the sp will be least 12-13p in 12 months, and we'll have received 1p in dividends. imagine what an offer will look like in 6 months when aeco is $3 and significantly higher moving forward. we'll also have the simonette wells coming online in this time. at shg the greasy patels and mgt were telling us that gold price would drop back, even though every man and his dog knew it would shoot higher. if the t/o didn't happen shg would be a good 30-50% higher than the final t/o offer. at the very least by voting no here we can solicit a better deal in future, or an extra 10% from gte. can't lose by voting no.

majid is a d@g.

majid is a greasy c@nt, there's no two ways about it. the ****e from his mouth over the past year about our unrealised value and then we bend over for a cr@p deal from a nothing company. absolute joke. i'm voting no. i couldn't give two ****s if we drop back down to 10p as we'll be back to this level with winter gas prices. and if aeco goes anywhere near expected prices in 2025 with the start-up of lng canada then we'll be comfortably above the offer price in 12 months. one needs to keep in mind we'd pick up 1p in dividends in this time as well. this is the second time mgt have f@cked me in an investment. shg was even worse than this deal. hopefully some funds having been hoovering up shares and we'll have slater and one or two other iis tell them to get p!ss off.

i still think a counter-bid is going to land. there's no way would be predators can look at this deal and think an extra 10-15% isn't a steal. either that or some funds will hopefully do the same as what happened at shg and force another 10% from gte. i'd still be gutted with 15-16p, but wouldn't feel run-over by majid and polus. vote no folks is all i can say.

Agree Logan that's the likely avenue for GTE. Issue though is GTE shares will drop in value, so they'll need to add 15%.

SP being at 12-12.25p is because the market believes the offer will fail. GTE will be well aware of this potential outcome and will increase the offer if another doesn't arrive before-hand. Counter-offer will want to ensure it not only gets the votes, but will also send GTE packing. For this reason I think 16p (£200m) will do the job. These things take months to play out so any other bidder has time on their hands at the moment. SP drop back to 10p on bid failure but market knows what will get it over the line. AECO increasing in Winter and the sp will be at this level anyway.

Premier and JPM will determine whether we get an extra 10-15% from GTE.

Rylidan, there's no way GTE will walk away from this deal if it is likely to fail. They have the ability to increase the offer, and to respond to any higher offer. I expect another offer to land in the next month or so. And if it doesn't I would expect some of our IIs and funds to join in and put pressure on GTE to add another 10%. I honestly believe they have low-balled knowing they need to add 10% to make investors feel they're not getting completely f@cked. The same happened at SHG recently, and over at TXP where a deal on similar terms for TRIN (derisory) attracted a much higher bid on assets nowhere near as good as i3e's.

At 15p the t/o will get over the line. At 13.6p (current value) I don't see them getting the necessary support. I cannot remember what level JPM have picked up shares but it's not at the lows of POLUS etc. You are also in the minority of PIs who will accept this offer. Between Tony and myself we have 0.7% voting against. I imagine this board would take us to +3% quite comfortably. Throw in Premier, JPM, and a couple of funds who are no doubt buying at the moment and you have enough pressure to get an extra 15-20%, providing another offer doesn't land in the meantime. Other potential suitors know that 15-16p should get the deal over the line. This is a value that is paid back in less than 3 years without any further gains in poo and AECO. As you know I'm also in PTAL and that investment is far riskier than here. There is no way I'll put my winnings here over there. It's a nice risky 10% yield, same as here the past year when taking into account withholding tax. Lower if you bought in at +45p. It also has a good 20% value gain over the next 12 months providing poo stays above $75. But that's only if nothing goes wrong. The biggest risk forPTAL you haven't mentioned - it's environmental. One h@lfwitted or drunken barge driver in the dry season with a big spill and the clean-up will eliminate the cash they have in the bank.

If I were to dump my cash from here anywhere it would be HBR at the moment. Great yield and transformative news coming up in a couple of months with Wintershell. I would say to everyone on this board to send Majid an email stating that you're disgusted in the deal based on everything he has said over the years. And that you'll be voting No! On the back of this GTE will determine whether they need to offer the extra 10% to get a vote of approval. If the vote looks remotely near failing they will add 10% without blinking. I personally believe a PE backed firm is going to come in with 16p and GTE will fold. Still a steal at this level at circa £200m.

Majid is a f@cking snake.

Devil, my understanding with TXP is we're holding them to the irrevocable undertakings committed due to clauses set in the original t/o offer. I may be wrong but this is my understanding as to why lawyers are involved and TXP are publishing their comms with TRIN mgt.

Thanks fro clarifying Spike. I guess we need a counter now. I'll stop moaning if we get to 16p cash offer. Happy to vote in favour if we get to that level. Will be an interesting next month or two. GLA

In the event of a higher offer do the 'irrevocable undertakings' lapse? Always been confused by this as surely an offer of 16p would mean the directors and Polus would be forced to recommend the enhanced offer. Anyone know the rules on this?

Kestas, I think you need to look at Q4 2023 as a guide to the amount of money that will be thrown off in Q4 this year. There will be 2 x new wells coming online in early October generating incremental production on a higher base than last year. Even with decline rates the cash being generated will be the highest ever in Q4, and then Q1 2025 will push even higher with another 2 x Casc wells coming online. This of course depends on Casc 2 & 3 being as productive as our first 2 x Casc wells. Most believe they will be better, so perhaps look at the Q4 sp last year (50-60p range) to get an idea of where we'll be at year end (all going according to plan).

If they hit forecasts, as still guiding, the sp will be in the 40-50p range for certain in October. Providing they are drilling the next two Casc wells in Q4 we should end the year in the 50's. This of course depends on execution and hitting forecasts. I'm not even thinking of selling until we hit the high 40's. SP will start climbing in 3 weeks. AIM lemmings love to leave things to the last minute. GLA

Turns out the bid is an absolure smash and grab. Still up but getting robbed in i3e. So much AIM mgt are filthy d@gs.

anyone saying we should accept the offer needs to sell their shares or get their head checked. the sp will be at this level in q1 2025, and that's all but guaranteed. with aeco going in the direction many think it will in 2025, the sp will be higher than the 13.9p offer on the table. only reason for majid to be accepting this offer is mgt have been given some cushy job in the bigger entity, and/or they are getting a massive bonus payment.

this is the second time mgt has tried to shaft shareholders in a company where i've been invested. shg went for a number equivalent to this dog**** offer. given the current gold price it would be at least 20p now. the final offer that was accepted was 15p. good thing was a couple of funds jumped on board in the 12's - the initial offer was 13.65p offer - and said 'no deal'. the sneaky f@ck patels (indian / african c@nts with friends in tanz government) were forced to up their offer by 10% to 15p. this was enough for the funds to agree and for them to get the company. the cash being thrown off by shg pays for their entire offer in 15 months at the moment. and they had near term upside that cost nothing to generate 20% more production. either way new funds and pis told them to f@ck off, and picked up an extra 10%. the reason no other player came in was thought to be due to the patels 'influence' with government. no such problems with us, so don't be surprised if another offer lands. companies will often go low when they think a rival bid will land. but the 'irrevocable undertakings' from mgt is disgusting. they're undoubtedly compromised, just like shgs board. it appears that majid has turned out to be quite the d@g.

another company i'm txp, made an offer for trin who have much less attractive assets than ours at a significant discount to true value. in the end another player (lol), came in and offered an extra 25%. this is being kicked about between lawyers at the moment because trin board gave irrevocable undertakings for the txp offer. so counter offers definitely do happen when offers are derisory.

either way i'll be surprised with this offer going through in current form. i see an improved bid from gte of 10% to get the offer over the line if there's no others forthcoming, as no pi in their right mind would accept this insult, and i expect a few funds to be jumping in now and building a stake to pressure them. it happened with shg and given the value disconnect being so great here, i'd be amazed if there's not some funds doing the same with foolish pis dumping their shares in the low 12's. there's funds that make their money from doing this sort of thing. vote no and tell mgt how disgusted you are with their offer by email. if no other player comes in for +15p then pis and funds can push them to this level quite easily. i've got 4.1m shares and it's a big f@ck off from me. i'm also going to buy some more in the coming weeks so should end up with 4.5-5m. that's 0.4% saying no. trust me we can get more

also agree that mgt have no doubt been offered some cushy jobs and pay-outs. it happens far too often and they have sold out pis for cash plus some nice packages. we need a big fund to vote against. providing one ii says 'no' i think gte will be forced to up their offer by 10% as there's no way pis will accept this dog**** offer. i'd still be p!ssed off with 15.3p, but would reluctantly accept.

Sorry meant to say 16p in earlier post. Mentioned it previously that I think this could get accepted. Shane Majid didn't outright refuse the offer and state this is the starting point. I too have a feeing the IIs have forced his hand.

Yeah definitely not good value for us. I'm in the same place as Tony in thinking we should be valued considerably higher given we'd get to 14p by H2 next year with forward AECO pricing and WTI @ $80. I do believe the offer is so low that it may stimulate another bid as 13.9p is quite ridiculous. Anything above 15p I would have been fine with accepting. Good deal for buyer and decent deal for us given how our sp has performed the past year or so. I also don't like the idea of Cash plus Shares. All cash at 15p or higher and it gets my vote. Anything less and I'll be voting against. Sadly my recent buying only took me to 4.1m shares. I was intending to go 'All-in' here by year end if we stayed in the low 9's. Was waiting for TXP to make a move next month and PTAL to get back above 42p. Would have taken me to 10m shares. Had I done it now I'd have just over 9m shares. Shoulda, woulda, coulda.

By the way does 13.9p include all elements of the deal i.e. cash, dividend, and GTE shares (at current value)?

Good to see BBs have re-started, even if they're less than £1k per day. On holiday in Greece so haven't commented on the BBs of sorts. Nice to see my other investment in i3e up from a potential bid from GTE. Woke up on holiday £125k richer :)