Member Info for G_G_G

SS I'll take half that amount and breaking 50p by Xmas. Very, very happy to be wrong on this. I've been saying this will climb to the mid / high 30's pre-news. From there it's all execution. If they deliver on time and near forecast then mid 40's. If higher than forecast then high 40's. And when confirmation of the new wells being drilled starts we should break into the 50's. Providing there's no f@cks ups there's a good 60% upside here in 15 weeks. If the market gets excited it's potentially going to the next step of 60-70p and 1 year highs. We are 'in-play' and the market is just waking up. AIMHO GLA

Great to see a substantial BB in a shortened time-frame. Haven't seen something this good for a small company in a while. Can see this back to 150's in the coming weeks very easily. Timed this one nicely :) GLA

Agree they should provide an update in the next 2 weeks on status of pipeline and expected first recorded gas flows. Ideally we'll also get a timings update on expected spud / hook-up of the next 2 wells. All going well we'll be a lot higher in 4-5 weeks. Maybe, just maybe the sp will start with a '5'. GLA

Remind me of flow rates of the first 2 x Casc wells? Wasn't it around 40mmcf...?

Agree with Johno that anything above this rate is a huge bonus. Have to remember that a further 2 x wells will be completed and hooked up in Q1. So even taking into account our current decline rates we will be knocking on 100mmcf by end Q1 with these four extra wells. If they announce another 4 wells before end of 2025 (for only $20-25m outlay) and we'll be hitting 200mmcf. There's the wall of cash.

As I've been saying for some time the first big re-rate imo will occur following these 2 x wells providing they hit production guidance without all the drama that has followed the company recently (40-50p). It will go a long way to supporting belief in Casc as a major recoverable gas source with great economics. The next re-rate, which I think will be even bigger, is after the next 2 x wells are hooked up and producing in Q1. This is where all doubt will be removed and investors will clearly see TXP as a substantial gas producer in a gas buoyant pricing environment (unlike places like Canada). Reckon sp will be above 70p at this point (so minimum 2x from now). I could be wrong and we might shoot straight through to the 50's with these next wells given there's little resistance. It will of course require +40mmcf. Exciting times. AIMHO GLA

My bet is next week Johno. Reckon money will start coming in for the expected news at the end of this month. Will depend on sellers as to whether we get to the high 30's or beyond before news. Lots under-water here. But also many with averages in the low 30's who have entered recently. You are right that after 35.5p there's not really a barrier until 40p. GLA

Why the fall folks? What have I missed?

Nice to see this pushing against the tide of red today. Feels like we've found a bottom. Now it's about how long before a decent recovery takes place. Imagine the next set of results will remind the market of the investment thesis here. GLA

Yep. Imagine when news hits and we start doing +1m volume days over a few weeks. SP will significantly jump (providing the news is good).

No-one selling with very modest buying and the sp continues to strengthen. This is whilst the mkt is getting whacked and looking like a nasty September awaits if there's some bad economic news out of the US.

Thing is most investors are under-water here. And if you've held this long at these levels, why would you sell in the 30's...? We'll continue to creep upwards and if forecast numbers are delivered at month end it should take us comfortably into the 40's. If we exceed expectations, we may well get to 50p (not holding my breath). I would certainly welcome the 40's though. Just need the market to be turning in a few weeks. Would be terribly unlucky to get such great news amidst a correction. Now 3.5 weeks to go. GLA

SP has done well today considering the market got whacked. Bodes well for the coming weeks providing there isn't a wider meltdown.

If no voting rights then GTE will own a lot of shares and not the company. It will however mean they needs to pay less than +10% if they increase the bid. Smart way to raise the offer price, but not have to pay the full whack, if that is indeed what they are doing.

Expecting a raise in the coming days.

Yes bots 4.15m shares and I've voted No! Anyone who can read would have read it on this BB. I'm still trying to work out wtf you're doing here though.

Sturm, I've been saying 50-60p after we have an additional 2 wells online in Q1 2025. You are right that continued investment and delivery and the sp will continue to climb until the end of 2025. But there will be selling along the way as people take profit. There will also likely be a lot more shares thanks to TRIN deal closing when they see the sp in the 40's and understand the prospects of the combined entity. That's more shares that will likely change hands in the 40's, 50's, 60's and so on. It's just the way I see it. I made a decent chunk of money here years ago when the sp was in the 40's just after the pandemic. I sold for a 50% gain from memory. I missed landing a 3-4x. So not always right. But did make money and others will take it off the table just as I did.

SP pointing to 'No' vote. I hope GTE and Majid the snake are paying attention. We still have 4 weeks for an improved offer, or a counter-offer. One of them will come. And if not, so be it. We'll be better off in the long run without GTE and Majid. GLA

Another good thing about PTAL is it has substantial 2P reserves. Big issue is getting all the oil to market though. And the environmental risk has always made me nervous. One big spill and that cash pile will disappear. Could be said for all oilies but barging on the Amazon in the dry season is a bit different. If you can get in there for 38-39p you've done well with limited downside imo. It will likely drop back to this level in the coming weeks.

HBR I think anything in the 280's or below. Reckon this has 10-20% in it on deal confirmation.

And SQZ I think could fall to the 110-115 range. If it does that's worth a big bet as you'd have a 20% dividend yield at this level. The real upside lies in a non-UK acquisition though.

Tony, I bailed from PTAL after taking the recent dividend so I could put money into TXP and TIG. Typically for me PTAL made an announcement today that gave it a little bump. Overall I'm up on TIG and TXP though. So far so good.

Reasons I left are largely down to 1. Risk, and 2. Mgt not being focused on creating shareholder value whilst awarding themselves confetti PSUs. As b/g the BBs only just cover the shares they award themselves each year.

The dividend is very good. But it's not at the level you're saying. It's currently tracking at 1.5c per quarter, or about 11.8% at current sp. After you take into account 10% Canadian withholding tax the yield is 10.7%. They could of course increase it very easily, but instead are sitting on $100m in cash. Reckon they'll throw in a 2c dividend at the end of the year if river levels haven't f@cked them this dry season. Very frustrating to see the low divi and BBs when this much cash is sitting idly. I'm not saying I won't be back to PTAL, just pointing out the reasons why I bailed recently. It's well run operationally. I just think I can make more out of TXP / TIG in the next 8 weeks than there.

SQZ interesting. I jumped in and out of them recently and took a few £k hit thanks to Labour releasing their current thinking on WFT, but not committing to anything. Spooked the market. This was a month or so ago. Labour are absolute f@cking h@lfwits that have ruined the sector. SQZ however is very good value now imo. Big dividend payer (high double digit yield). Plenty of cash and cash generation due to tax offsets, so safe for another 2-3 years. And if they make a decent acquisition away from the North Sea they could really move upwards in price. I had mentioned on that board i3e would be a great bolt-on for them. On-shore Canada with no debt, decent production, solid outlook, and easy to scale production with SQZs cash pile. We could be a little small for them, but that's why I think we're a good deal. They could swallow us very easily without the dramas of taking on something far bigger.

HBR would be my pick out of the two though. They're going to be huge after this merger. Production will be 500kboepd and they have some incredible development opps. They have investment grade debt. Will hit the FTSE 100 and open up to more funds. Good divi. And they will be able to pay down their debt very easily over the next 5 years whilst increasing non-UK production. The big opp for them however is moving to a US listing. This would double their sp overnight. Reckon they may do it as well. LC is very vocal about the government being @ssholes. Reckon she may make a point of putting two fingers up to them. There's my thinking.

Dbh, I'd love to be more optimistic but you need to keep in mind that many people have been accumulating in the low 30's. I've got 800k at 32.3p for instance. You're going to have a number of investors trimming or offloading in the mid 30's all the way up to the low-mid 40's. It will be up and down, but I don't believe it will get to 50p until 2 more wells are drilled successfully i.e. Q1.

You also need to keep in mind that TRIN will put the brakes on things if we end up with the company. Once we get back to the low-mid 40's our original offer will be worth more and likely to be accepted by shareholders. You're then going to get TRIN muppets doing their thing after the deal gets passed, keeping a lid on 50p.

I'd love to see us get back to the 40's, make TRIN mgt wait until January, and then pull the deal. But either way TRIN is better long-term for us. It has decent enough cash-flow to maintain production levels, and pay for another Casc well every year. They will also come with +$5m in cash. Again another Casc well in this. I just don't like how their mgt team have behaved. Good thing is if we take them over we can sack every one of them immediately.

Good to see some upward movement today. Will be interesting to see where we sit pre-Casc announcement. GLA

I've been saying for weeks the slow climb will start from now. There's 3 weeks until we get hook-up confirmation. And 4 weeks for initial flow rates. Volume has been ultra low with a very strong base having been formed. Just the slightest of buying pressure and this jumps 10% in a day or two. Imagine when the volume gets into the m's. I think it's investors starting to take a position before news lands. Some will no doubt take their 10% profit at 35-36p and will rise and fall to the upper mid 30's before we get confirmation of Casc 2&3 being a success. In the success case we're in the low 40's. If the success case involves higher production than expected we could get to the mid 40's. I don't think we'll get to the 50's until confirmation of Casc 4&5 being drilled and expected production dates. By end Q1 we're comfortably in the 50's and maybe 60's if they're drilling more wells in this time.

he should tell us how the f@ck he put up the for sale sign for competitive offer process without the market even knowing about it. who did he ask, a few mates at the pub - fancy making an offer for our o&g company? nope, ok i'll go with that ****e gte offer. there's clearly something unbelievably rotten in how such a garbage deal has been kept under wraps and then wheeled out as if they have gone through an extensive process of gathering offers.

bots, you're still missing a key part of the scheme document. it's not just a counter-offer where they can come back. the have the option of raising with t/o panel approval. it's not like mgt will say no to a higher offer. you've been corrected by stas on this already. do better.

and no the same logic doesn't apply to me on what happens to the sp in the event of a no vote. i don't think the sp will drop below 10p. i don't believe all those who bought in will dump their shares for a loss given we will be higher than now in 6 months. and we're 'in-play'. and we have numerous value accretive actions taking place in the near future. so no loss unless the deal goes through imo. your views on the other hand state that you would risk 30% for 7%. not too clever if you believe your own horse****.