RE: Bargain17 Sep 2024 10:43
Agree a 0.25% rate is most likely. I think the Fed won't want to do anything drastic pre-election. Dropping by 0.5% will give commodities a boost, which in turn will give the Republicans a poo gripe (when DT is all about 'drill baby drill').
Def. going to be a first cut though. And that in itself should provide some support to poo, not necessarily a boost. If the Dems win the election then Powell will know he can be more proactive in managing IRs because he won't be dealing with a h@lfwit loose cannon toddler in the White House. Reckon post election there will be the 0.5% cut. Then poo will start to turn hard, especially if NOPEC keep production cuts in place.
I'm hoping my big bet on TXP comes off then will move a few hundred k over here if the sp is sub 265p. This provides a very easy 10-15% capital gain over the next 3 months. GLA