Member Info for G_G_G

Agree Rylidan on Peru being a very specialist area / market in which to operate. And that's it's hard to imagine 75p when we can't break 50p and hold it. Having said that, I don't see an offer of 60-65p even getting past mgt. If the offer was a merger where one could see decent upside in the newly combined companies, then maybe. But even then it's hard to believe. I think 75p is the sweetspot for buyer / holder to mutually benefit. Nice to dream eh.

August 08th we get to see some more results and progress. July numbers should be brilliant. Woudl be nice to know more about the recent acquisition and drill plans for H2. And most of all get an idea of the dividend payment. Surely 2c is on the cards with the cash we have sloshing about at the moment. GLA

Well TRIN assets are much lower value now, which makes the combined value een better.

Casc 2&3 execution is all that matters. If delivered against forecast it will bring back investors en-masse as it will signal prior promises will be delivered (albeit late). A bit risky (-20% maximum downside) with quite good reward profile at +50-100% within 6 months. First bit of Casc news due in 3 weeks after TRIN closure. Not long now. GLA

Hard to tell buys v sells today. SP has gone down so weighting obviously toward sell side. Not a lot of volume though.

Sturm, agree with your nervousness. I keep asking myself whether USD$100m is fair value for a circa 15kbopd (25% liquids) producing company with significant low-cost production upside. Debt profile is relatively high v mcap, but low overall and about to be improved by USD$5m on TRIN closure. It's why I keep coming back to two things 1) Casc decline rates and geology understanding, and 2) Casc 2 & 3 execution on forecast (time, budget, production). If they get these two things right the sp will be in the 50's by year end. If both of them turn out to be a mess then mid to high 20's would be worst case scenario. They would after all still be producing a decent amount of oil and gas with decent locked in gas pricing. Far more upside v downside imo.

PB however better not be pulling a swifty. The jury is out on him being a bit of an AIM CEO snake oil salesman. If he delivers then all other failures to deliver on his big promises will quickly be forgiven. GLA

Even crazier is the sp retreating with so much cash hitting accounts. Honestly flabbergasted by the sp action here.

i check in here every now and then to take a look at what garbage is being printed. whenever i see numbers being used is where it gets most hilarious. only a few people over the years have any clue about this company, and i've made a decent little chunk of money trading the dream cycle. thing about here is even with the cycle if !diocy i still can't bring myself to jump back in at the moment, such is the realistic outlook for this pile of cr@p. people talking about having 'supportive lenders' like it's a good thing. have a think about the fact they desperately need this to be the case (so in the ****), and how this can be leveraged against the company. they've raised so many times i've lost count. and never hit their forecasts.

without doubt this board is the longest running 'dreamerthon' i've ever seen. not sure how many times trust fund baby betts gets to con you people, but at some point you'll need to wake up. imagine some of you will still be talking about £1 when this gets taken out for pennies on that pound. here's a newsflash, the next set of results are going to be diabolical. the sp will crash and then dreamers will bring it back up, and the cycle of id!ocy will go on. i'll say good luck because you're sure a **** going to need it here.

Few thoughts. Firstly, I'll be surprised if a chunk of the dividend payment doesn't go in here given it's so under-valued and represents over 10% current mcap. The last 3 payments have resulted in 10% gains when the sp was considerably higher, and equivalent yield much lower. I think most will jump in here over the next 5 trading days as payments hit their accounts. Anything below 150p is pretty much a steal. The PE would still be single digits for a company throwing off a mountain of cash and no debt. The EV:EBITDA is also silly for an established player of this size. Good reserves. Plus the high likelihood of a transformational t/o in the next 6 months. Not to mention there's a big, recent gap to fill up to this level.

Final thought is if the sp wasn't down here then 150p would represent a 3 year low. Is the company and its investment thesis really the worst it has been in 3 years, even taking into account the dumb @ss UK government...? AIMHO GLA

Given current mcap, financial and production performance, sp performance, and Brent average price of $80.

a) 75p. Reckon EV:EBITDA will come out around 1.5 for end 2024. I think 3 would get it over the line, and anything above would be good value. So roughly 75% premium to current sp, and 50% higher than our peaks. There are big geo-political, environmental, and execution risks that need to be considered, so no point comparing with any other companies unless they have a similar risk profile in these key areas.

b) Fair is whatever a buyer is willing to offer and investors are willing to accept. As above I think investors here would accept 75p given the sizeable mark-up and current sp performance. This would be the value sweetspot imo for a buyer to offer and shareholders to accept. What I think would be fair is an EV:EBITDA of 4, so 95p. I would however happily accept 75p.

c) Not sure what you mean here...? Are you asking at what level I'd be happy to offload my holding...? This in many ways would depend on where I'm going to put my cash. No point selling at 50p if I'm going to let it sit idle when I could be getting 1.25-1.5p per quarter tax free dividend payments in my ISAs. If the SP was to step up 10p in the coming weeks and months, and some of my other investments continue to sit at current sp levels, then I'd sell. This would represent a total profit of £50k for me, so a good return on outlay.

Main thing is I feel quite comfortable in this investment. And I believe we'll get a few special divis in the coming months, so each time I get paid is a good income and effectively lowers my average. But if someone said I can get 75p tomorrow, I'd take their hand off. Easy £200k profit and I wouldn't even think about whether it was a 'fair' deal. I also mentioned US company because they're going to happily part with that amount of money and take on the risks. Anyway, that's my take on things.

I'm no chartist but I can also see 2 x reasonable sized gaps to fill between here and 160p. So don't be surprised if a new base is set 20% higher. SP is bouncing off £500m mcap. Could easily re-set at £600m.

Just picked up my last tranche of 10k at 131.65. That's it for me. No more cash to spend :( GLA

Mommur, I'd expect a decent amount of reinvestment given it's an exceptionally big dividend payment and most holders believe the value here is nuts. Could be wrong but if people believe in the value equation enough not to sell, then they're almost certainly going to be buyers at this price. SP appears to have bottomed as well, which points to sellers being on fumes. Be surprised if this doesn't set a new floor 10% higher over the coming fortnight.

Just convinced myself to buy some more 1 x 7.5k and 1 x 15k @ 131.5/6. GLA

Just picked up 2 x 15k buys at £1.31. Currently going to NT so can't get any more. Silly valuation here thanks solely to the UK government.

Good thing is selling appears to be drying up. Who knows why people would have been selling at these levels, but one or two pieces of good news and the re-rate will be swift. Less than 3 weeks before we get final approval of TRIN, becoming a much bigger company. And then the first crucial piece of news - Q2 production and Casc decline numbers. A good set of results or nice surprise to the upside and this will jump 10p in a flash. If poor then we'll likely drop into the high 20's and then recover in time for Q3 and Casc 2&3 results. Very little downside with quite a lot of upside imo. GLA

I think hook-ups and flow rates will be end-October. I believe they have guided end-September for first gas so even with a bit of slippage we should get an update by then. Basically 3 months from now. But lots of news flow in between. We just need a good update on Casc decline rates and we'll be in the 40's in no time. They need to demonstrate a better understanding of the geology and show they have better control over declines. If this happens then add 10p to the current sp within 2 weeks. First lot of good news in end of next week. GLA

Good year for river levels with +15kbopd in the dry season and the cash situation will get even sillier and divi payments will have to move upwards. Comes a point where the yield is so great that it pushes up the sp. Reckon we're at this level and would prefer they put money into the divi if they have to make a choice between it and BBs. Both of course would be the best course of action. Even better would be a t/o from a US based company. GLA

Amazing production when you consider there's 900bopd to be added on top with our recent acquisition. If they can keep this up for the remainder of July and August then guidance will need to be revised upwards by a decent amount. And yet we have nothing by way of BBs. Quite odd.

Haha. Super, I've got one kid and another on the way. So as I'm sure you can appreciate, I'm quite nervous. Your villa in Spain sounds nice :)

Agree SirMark, but need some confirmed news first. There's good reasons why we sit at 3 year lows. One of the things I love about the TRIN deal is we pick up +$5m in cash immediately. That's another Casc well, or some additional financial headroom. Either way it's a nice chunk of change. They can also save on directors fees the equivalent of a Casc well every 2 years if they bin off half the jokers sitting around doing f'all.

Nice to see some positive movement here. Long may it continue.

Bottoms, I have no doubt that will happen again some day. Thing is, if I put all my money back in here I'd have close to 10m shares. If I hadn't done my buying / selling over the past couple of years I'd have around 5.5m. And I f@cked things up quite a bit along the way. Didn't sell anywhere near peaks i.e. in the 20's, let alone 30's. Certainly less nervous here than I am about TXP, which has a lot of money stuffed in it at the moment. If that jumps in the coming weeks / months then I'll be back here in a big way.

still don't think we'll get to 40p until we see q2 casc results. if the declines have slowed and casc 2&3 are announced as being on time and budget, then i think we'll move into the 40's. if casc 2&3 have some fantastic initial flow rates and the company provides guidance on an accelerated well program then 50's would be next. reckon this will come in december as part of the usual santa rally.

equally nervous and excited about this one. hard to see us dropping unless casc turns into a ****show. gla

Is that the combined number of directors for TRIN and TXP? Absolutely ridiculous if that's the case. We have less and I work for a FTSE 250. Absolute joke number for a company of this size. Post consolidation they need to halve that number, and fast. Cost savings would be an extra well in Casc every 18 months.

Market update on August 08th. So 3 weeks before we get something from mgt. Hopefully they mention BBs, and if they're not back on the table they increase the dividend (my preference). Too much good news for the sp to be down here. We should be safely in the 50's. Bonkers valuation.