Member Info for G_G_G

Into the 8's. Sadly.

Interesting IBB article Tony, thanks for sharing. Can't say I understand all of the details but does lend some support to higher prices next year.

viable, half of aim ceos are full of ****. so many of them being shysters. looks at swindell at delt for an o&g bull****artist. as for shg, you may recall what i felt toward the mgt team over there. i had even more money in that company and they shafted investors whilst trying to tell them it was a great deal. thankfully i made quite a bit, but felt for lths who got completely screwed over by the bod. pb seems to be ok, but he does have a whiff about him, which makes me nervous.

hopefully three months form now we're 50% higher and marvelling at casc and how pb has delivered in his words. gla

I think the article refers to an 'exercise' and not a spill.

You'd think so Stas, but I've been saying that for years. You'd think a company with our assets and fundamentals, which has been as under-valued as we have been for years, would have been taken out already.

I imagine a semi decent offer and our biggest shareholders would probably bail. Certainly don't think we'd get more than 20p. Reckon 18p would do the trick. Just need any would be predators to wait for a few more months so I can get back in here.

3lbs, it's not poo we need to rise. it's aeco that is f@cking the sp here. i know canadian lng is meant to be our saviour, however i'm unconvinced this is going to deliver what many think it will. no doubt it will improve prices, but it's not a huge amount of canadian gas that will be exported form next year (12% i believe). and the canadians are so f@cking stupid they'll just keep producing more and drive the price back down.

sp unfortunately doing what i said it would. so dumb that i didn't sell out completely. lesson learned (again). reckon it will be 6 months before we see double digits again. providing they don't do anything stupid like cutting the dividend i don't see us dropping beyond £100m mcap (8.6p).

i'm holding out for a somewhat speccy to come in. not sure why i do this, but hopefully this one won't disappoint. if txp goes back above 45p in the coming months i'll start re-buying here in earnest. i imagine we'll be in the single digits until october / november so if things go well i could end up with a **** ton of shares back here. will then sit until we get back above 13p or bought out. aimho gla

historically speaking this is a very low volume period, which is somewhat reassuring given the sp weakness.

viable, i think you need to expand on those comments about pb. i believe you've said before the canadian o&g industry thinks pb is full of ****. would be good to hear a bit more about this given you are already commenting.

Geldautomat, I often wonder what they can offset against their tax pool - are you certain about Casc? I'm assuming they can at least offset any production coming from expansion of the existing TRIN assets? In other words offsetting tax against adding another few thousand bopd from the current acreage - can you confirm?

BBB, I normally think BBs are a waste of time. For PTAL they're quite p!ss poor, but at the very least they will be upward pressure on the sp, which isn't being done by mgt.

I'd say p!ss poor effort on the PR / Publicity front. And even worse on BBs that are a) are insignificant, and b) haven't even been re-started. At least poo and production are holding up well. they need to give their heads a wobble and remember that creating shareholder value is a key responsibility and the sp would suggest they are failing on this core deliverable. GLA

Bob, can you please elaborate on the BBs comment?

Picked up another 50k at 40.4p this morning. Average now down to 45.5p and close to 44.5p if I include the divi. Who knows I might even make some money on this investment :)

looks like we've gone 'on-sale'. another 400k dumped by someone... bizarre to be selling given this quarter is going to be v.strong, and regardless of increased erosion control costs, we're making a **** ton more cash than before with brent +$80 and the recently acquired 900bopd light oil. thoughts for sell off anyone....?

Hi Longfell, I figured the Norwegians had stopped selling in January when they were near 4% holding - I haven't seen them drop below 3% unless I have missed an rns...? If it is them selling then it would appear they have more than 3% still to go. Hopefully not as that's a lot of shares to unload if they're intent on selling down altogether.

Thoughts anyone?

Big 350k dump taken today. Anyone tune in to the AGM? Mgt going to pull their fingers out and start BBs.

Scott, the price of TRIN doesn't impact the price of TXP - it's the other way around. That is to say that TXP shareholders are re-pricing the TRIN deal. I just can't get my head around why they would do it. Current cash from ops is looking like $40-45m. Next year is going to be significantly higher than this with the extra Casc wells. My estimate is USD$70-75m, and one needs to keep in mind the tax breaks with TRIN. So to have a combined mcap at USD$100m is completely ridiculous.

Just cannot get my head around why anyone would be selling TXP. Less than a week now for the deal to be agreed. GLA

I honestly cannot get my head around who the hell is selling here. Surely there's no-one in profit now unless we're talking about people who bought before 2020...? And with so much news around the corner it's mind boggling that someone or some entity are selling down. Almost expecting a TR1 to pop up showing a major holder has been offloading. Either that or there's something dodgy going on in the background.

Unless oilprice.com is incorrect those don't look like monthly averages for WTI, which the site would suggest is closer to $77-78 for the year.

Those 2 x 25k at 30.67p earlier today were me :) Definitely the end of my buying now. Got my average down to 32.5p for 800k. Way too deep and will be absolutely gutted if PB f@cks things up from here. My gut feeling is 29.5p is the absolute bottom, which represents a combined TRIN / TXP value of USD$100m mcap. The sp has simply adjusted to what the market believes is the true base value of the deal. TRIN holders no doubt disappointed, but need to consider the much higher sp appreciation that will happen as part of a combined entity versus them going it alone. This of course relies entirely on Casc.

TRIN vote first major milestone. Then Q2 results with production and Casc decline rates (hopefully tapering). Then end-September Casc hook up with initial production rates. If all goes according to plan we should be back in the 50's in October. GLA

stas, i agree the hedges put a decent buffer in place. i can't remember if they hedged more gas than oil...? hopefully gas as oil prices have been quite buoyant. what i also remember is the price assumptions they had in place for both commodities, which were higher than the likely 2024 average (gas from memory much higher).

i imagine noi is going to come in around usd$55-60m even with an improvement in aeco at year-end and wti averaging usd$78. not bad given current commodity prices, but there's no way they can get away the development spend without cutting heavily into the dividend. this would be disastrous for the sp. it sends a signal that you cannot rely on the dividend, which is why many have invested in the first place. to lose both income and value would be pretty ****. unless they do another asset sale i see next year being when they grow production (providing they don't cut the divi). this year is likely to offset declines and maybe get us to 20kboepd year-end exit rates. wouldn't be bad providing lng canada has the effect on gas prices that many believe will happen next year.

even with noi nearer usd$55m this is very, very cheap right now. aimho gla

Agree with the outlook Tony, providing AECO improves in-line with LNG Canada's impact on the market. In theory this should happen, but if it results in Canada producing far more gas they'll end up f@cking their own market pricing. Either way there should (in theory) be a step-up price improvement from H1 next year. Size of step-up could vary quite a bit though.

As for the here and now, I don't see us regaining 10p until clear green shoots appear in AECO. Knowing our luck WTI will crater then :) I'm still a closely observing buyer but think we'll revisit the 8's and drop to the £100m mcap level. Only 0.8p to go from here. AIMHO GLA

Can;t say I understand much of that last post Viable.