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Thanks Ex. Couple of things:

o ZIOC intends on securing initial offers from investors during Q1 2026, and is targeting the announcement of transaction terms with a selected strategic investor during Q1 2026

Suggests a single partner...? Could just be wording. And the partner could be a consortium. Note: the CEO statement reinforces the singularity. The possibilities you have mentioned to me appear quite onerous versus 1 x partner with deep pockets who also could have an agreed offtake e.g. 20%. This is why have been leading to a Guld investor. They have the pockets, and they need the supply - thoughts?

- The total share count that I have is 832.4m. If you add 20% you get to 999m. Also, the sp keeps pulling back to £60m mcap, which also happens to be a nice round number. This is something I have seen across many company - how they like to settle at/near round numbers. Could be coincidence, but my gut is telling me we will be giving up 20% ownership in Zioc for £12m ($15.5m). This would remove any bankruptcy/cash issues for a low burn holding company with no future capital outlays. Thoughts on these numbers?

Finally, where is your head at on next steps / catalysts, and sp projections. AI again is broadly aligned with my thinking, which is:

- February 10th project economics update - 15-20p

- end-February partner reveal with agreed financial terms (pre-lock-in expiry early March) - 25-30p (circa 0.15x 50% $5bn Stage 1 NPV for 1bn shares)

- Binding terms agreed Q1/early Q2 - 45-55p (circa 0.25x 50% $5bn Stage 1 NPV for 1bn shares)

- FID/Initial Construction Q4 2026 = 65-75p (circa 0.35x)

AI also seems to think that the partner could be announced on February 10th, although I think they will do the reveal / dress the bride on this date toto 1) appear as though it has been an open process even though the partner is already chosen, 2) one last invitation to major(s) / sovereign wealth funds to make an offer they cannot refuse.

Would be great to get your thoughts on what I've mentioned above, key catalysts (and corresponding sp estimates), and when you think they will be announced. Let's assume the mgt team will not heavily dilute, and let the partner onto the register with no more than 20% ownership. Thanks for sharing your thinking to date.

Big old spread. Suggests we're not too far away. I'm going for a DIS sale price of £180-190m. And a resulting sp of 70-75p.

Ex, you've been here years and know the background to this project and the surrounding geo-political, commercial etc. importance better than most. What do you think the likely scenarios are in how this plays out? Not interested in sp projections, just how you see this project being carved up.

My views are as follows:

1. SP is being suppressed at this level. Why? And what's the significance of a circa £60m mcap level?

- My thoughts are that they will let the partner onto the share register. For 20% dilution at £60m mcap, the share count gets to 1bn. We have enough cash to carry us to Stage 1 production (providing we don't need to pay for any of the development costs). And the partner is more aligned with ZIOC at both a project and company level, likely having a seat on the board.

2. Partner terms I see as 50% ownership for a free carry and X% offtake at agreed pricing (probably -10% to market).

- The value to us is US$1bn in carried development costs, which feels about right for a soon to be $5bn NPV Stage 1, and $10bn NPV Stage 2.

- Expectation is the agreement will extend to 50% development costs for Stage 2 and extension of an agreed offtake.

3. Likely partner Gulf State, but could also be Chinese.

Assumptions:

- Mgt will not giveaway the project for peanuts after all these years and $350m in sunk costs (closer to $500m inflation adjusted). They will get 'fair value' for the amount of ownership they provide to partner(s).

- Mgt will not dilute their holding to any significant level, and will want to wrap the project as cleanly as possible. The cleaner the deal, the better they look.

- SP is being suppressed to allow the partner onto the register at £60m mcap. At 20% dilution you get 1bn shares - coincidence?

Happy to hear other thoughts on different project ownership structures, in particular scenarios where we get f@cked. Obviously, a take private for 30p would be one of those options, but wouldn't be too bad in the grand scheme of things for PIs. What I would like to hear about are scenarios where we get diluted into oblivion i.e. shareholders are sacrificed for the sake of the project going ahead with mgt somehow structuring development in a way that would retain a lot of ownership for themselves. Obviously, this would destroy their reputation amongst PIs, but for hundreds of $millions, would they do this? Thoughts? And how could they do it?

Gemini and ChatGPT appear aligned with my thinking to a confidence level of circa 60% probability, but they will often spit out what you want them to say. I have interrogated both on my concerns, but this is their thinking based on other deals. Take private at 15%. Full t/o at 10%. Other options like we get hugely diluted or the deal falls over is rolled into the last 15%.

If we can discuss/debate some scenarios, then it will be a lot easier to run some numbers.

cross, are you getting all your 'research' from discord? if so, don't believe a word, especially if it came from lyin paul.

all you need to know is cr3 flow test results are a coin flip (i'd actually give us better odds at 70% commercial success), and will determine whether we sink or swim for a long time. this isn't an exaggeration, just look at the sp graph and know that the whole way down folks were relaying baay's b@ll**** and being sucked into what has been an absolute ****show. read my last post. this actually happened, and if you want to go back years there's a lot more stories being told by baay. the useless f@ck is in trin to save his skin. let's hope that he does and gives investors whom he has hoodwinked for years a little money back on their substantial losses. and your research is way out. if everything goes to plan on cr3 and 2 x fast follow wells you can expect a 2-3x in 12 months. at best, which is still very good.

In their defence Ross, they have been conned by Baay, like the rest of us.

I bought in on TRIN, which subsequently fell over because the deal wasn't locked down, and we ended up footing the bill for them pulling out. Classic Baay not looking at any fine print, the f@cking pr@t. Then I doubled down on our 'transformation asset' that Conjob Baay said would be funded through cash flow. He then pulled a last-minute raise with a bucket shop months later, which subsequently (infamously) fell over. He then said 'nothing to worry about, all paperwork, and legally locked down', without telling the market the raise funds, and another $9m were attached to the loan terms. Then we find out it's not legally locked down, and our friendly bank won't change the terms as he led the market to believe could be done. It seems the only ones who look at contracts are the bank, and not Calamity Baay. Then we have a debenture. And then a raise at 11p. And in between they f@ck Casc 4 twice. And drill close to a duster at Casc 5. All taking a year to achieve.

Hopefully you can see the stories told by Baay have completely hoodwinked people, especially those averaging down in the 30's and 20's. The major damage was the failed raise and his misleading and withholding critical information from the market on the loan terms. Everything else from there was another nail in the coffin, but the 11p drop was all his doing. The man should have his nose removed.

Thanks Ex. In your view, how much of the project would a partner get for funding 50% Capex? Also, where does the Gulf 20% off-take element come in with the recent raise terms? What has been agreed and how much value has been placed against this?

Take a look at some of my previous posts on this company and the sector, both of which I know quite well. Anyone who thinks a bid anywhere near £3 is going to land is in dreamland. The category is contracting across the board. Government imposed costs have sky rocketed. They never got on top of costs when they had a chance, so hardly inspires confidence they will suddenly find greater efficiencies. On top of this, they have cut costs (people) to the bone. Debt is over half the current Mcap. The Exec team are muppets - just look at the share price before the current C-Suite arrived. And the property portfolio that everyone likes to talk about is the company valuation. This isn't an audited external valuation.

In summary. Demand and revenue have peaked. Margin is weak. Costs have climbed. Debt is too high. Acquisitions and builds have been loss-making or low margin. Property valuation is made up. Mgt are lost and have been rumbled so scampering around trying to find a buyer or solution to keep their jobs.

Having said this, the current valuation is too low. I'd expect a bid to land around 230-240p (35-40%). They may get back to 250-260p if a competitive bid comes along. This is a good acquisition for PE who have the deep pockets to handle debt, cost and asset strip where possible, and will use as a cash cow. AIMHO

Aye, tell me the last time 'results' met or exceeded expectations? It's a coin flip. Heads you win 50%. Tails you lose by a similar amount. Don't get angry with deceived posters pointing out the obvious reality here, get angry with the charlatan masquerading as a CEO who f@cked the raise and withheld the loan terms, which cratered the sp to single digits.

And yes, I'm still holding here, although not as much as previously. This should be the absolute last chance that Calamity Baay gets to screw things up. In knowing that he'll probably deliver for once.

from what ai and my own mind are telling me, we will have a deal in q1, and we're being held at this range to allow the partner onto the register. one thign to note is that we're being pinned back to a £60m mcap. i'm also expecting us to be diluted by 20% (£12m), which funnily enough, will take us to 1bn shares. the terms i'm expecting is the partner will fund stage 1 for 50% at project level, with a free carry for us. these numbers also stack up against deals for recent deal valuations.

the partner gets a great deal with 50% ownership at the project level and guaranteed green iron off-take. plus, they get a 20% stake in us. we have enough cash ($16m) to carry us through stage 1 build and to first ore (in 4 years). i suspect the partner will be gulf-based. all nice and clean if it plays out in this manner.

this to me, explains why the sp is being suppressed. you cannot let it get away and then raise at a 50-100% discount. i suspect the deal has already been done, hence the presentation on the 10th. final terms will be announced just before the lock-in expires in early march.

providing we get a free carry this will explode. the spanner(s) in the works are 1) we raise at a deep discount for mgt and friends, and the deal drags out for another 12 months, 2) we need to raise hundreds of millions for project finance and the sp will be stuck at this level forever, but see this as being highly unlikely as our mgt don't have pockets that deep, and will be diluted to oblivion, like us. the other **** result is a take private at 30p. again unlikely if they're about to announce a stage 1&2 $10bn npv in february.

thoughts welcome.

Ross, I'm not sure it's that bad. What I see happening (my opinion Johno) is worst case scenario (tails), we get another Casc 3-5 wells result. Incredibly disappointing, but producing at a very modest rate. The incremental production they squeeze out of Casc 3-5, and the compressor unit, and we'll effectively pay for Calamity Baay's remuneration and all the other freeloaders, plus service our debt obligations. All non-essential Capex will be stripped, and they will hold on for a year until the pricing contracts change to drill another well or two. The pricing change should get us back to 9-10p in 12 months.

If our coin comes up heads, then I do see an immediate re-rate to 14-16p range. They will have enough cash to pay freeloader salaries, debt obligations, and I imagine to drill another 2 Central wells this year. If those wells are also moderately to quite successful, then you suddenly have a profitable, self-sustaining company that can afford to drill all-year round with the odd f@ck up. In 12 months with the pricing contract changes, I see us having regained the mid 20's. But to say this all comes down to CR3 is an understatement.

I called 9p as being the ceiling until we get CR3 flow test results, because I never thought we'd get such great log results. And even with them, the mgt (f@ck up) discount has taken us back down to 9p. Resistance is now support (and will hopefully hold as I don't want to be wrong on this one). Reckon we'll see some steady, modest buying back to the 10-11p in a couple of weeks.

In summary, it's a 50% immediate win, with up to 150% in 12 months given another 2 average to great Central wells. And the downside is you wait a year to get back to the same 9-10p level with overall production remaining steady from the modest Casc 3-5 and Compressor gains. Decent odds over 12 months. Until then we need to hold 9p.

And if we get tails, I'd hope Calamity Baay gets his marching orders. The f@cking clown who has us at 9p.

AIMHO

Sturm, your argument about all the costs for Shell doesn't make sense if drilling another couple of wells, for relatively nothing to them, is going to double or triple production. You cannot have it both ways in explaining why they haven't drilled further wells.

Ross, I agree the assets are far more complicated. But they have drilled a couple of very good wells in Casc. The issue is that every well is like a coin toss, because contrary to what Lyin Paul says, they don't have a good grip on anything, be it development and execution, or the geology. Some posters were questioning what happens if Casc 4 and 5 are poor only to be shouted down by the Discord experts who pointed to how much 'we know the Casc geology', these were 'safe play' wells, and 'I spoke with Paul' etc. At least now they are a little more restrained in how they respond to people saying Central is not a given until we've seen actual results. We have to hope this time the coin toss is favourable, and that Shell has missed an opportunity over all those years. But to date I haven't heard a single decent reason as to why Shell would have sunk all the capex, and have massive opex relative to sales, when all they have to do is drill a few more $5m wells into a producing field. The logs look good (but so did Casc 4 & 5), and so now we have to wait and hope, as usual with anything these clowns decide to do. Even the compressor has f@ck up written all over it. Something will be missing. Something will go wrong with the installation. The production gains end up being f@ck all. And it all won't be their fault.

What exactly is happening with Casc 3 -5 doing right now? No official comms from Calamity Baay who is hiding them away, praying that Central will give him a shiny object to distract the Discord fanboys so they forget about these monumental screw-ups. We'll get these results only when Lyin Paul has something to distract people from what they have done with Casc - 'don't look over there, look over here'.

I hesitate to say the bottom is in at 9p and any buyers are now going to have to pay +9.5p over the coming month.

Would it be too much to ask our clown mgt team to do some interviews? They've clearly released yesterday's news for a reason. Potentially to help clear a seller. Or to try and juice the sp as someone is sniffing around for a full t/o. Fwiw this is my preferred route - +70p full take private. As for 90p SOTP, when you account for debt you are looking at 60p. Take an offer of $250m. Clear $80-90m debt, leaving $10-15m. Do a rights offer at 50p. Sack all senior mgt and run the comparison business and search (if worth running at all), with no scope to buy anything else. Comparison + Search could manage the minor debt pile and ideally they would get sold off asap as well. At 6x Adj EBITDA you get around 20-25p depending on whether Search is a complete write-off. Between Google and mgt bingeing on garbage acquisitions, they really have f@cked this company. Shinez alone is worth 15p.

Anyway, it would be interesting to know why they provided the update yesterday, given they like to hide away normally. Obviously trying to support the sp, but to what end...

bottom line is there are many more posts than trades today. and the sp sits near 9p whilst we wait, yet again, on the promised land. we also still wait on official updates - not lyin paul's words to a pi - on the following:

- casc 4- wtf is happening with this +$10m ****show that created a 12-month bottleneck due to amateurish f@cks ups (twice).

- casc 5 production update.

- casc 3 pump issue, when it will be resolved, and what they expect from the remediation plan.

- vat discussions.

- estimated timings on cr3 flow test results (not sometime in q1).

- cash situation.

- wtf is happening next, assuming we have enough cash to execute whatever promise lyin paul feeds us.

- whether he will put his hand in his pocket, as promised. i cannot remember who he fed the story about the chairman and him having a significant amount of funds at the ready to invest, but unless i've missed something, we're still waiting on him to take some of that $800k per annum package that we pay him as owners of the company. folks who worked to earn money and then invest it in the company that he has destroyed through the most amateurish errors, and from which he continues to leech an inflated remuneration package.

so yeah, there's a lot for lyin paul to update the market on. but here we sit, at 9p, wondering whether they're going to f@ck up yet another well, or if it's going to save the company. fwiw, i'm more confident on this well than any others, but even i thought they couldn't possibly screw things up like they did on casc 3 to 5, the failed raise, the hidden loan terms...

Agreed. This is why they should set a date with a reserve price and sealed bids. Best offer wins. Reserve not hit, then no sale. Get the thing done already. I'd set the reserve at $220m, which I suspect to be around 9x 2026 Adj EBITDA. Hardly a big ask from any of the major US competitors, especially given the quality and mkt share of the DIS business that can be swallowed so easily. This mgt team are absolute clowns.

Hopefully we'll get a bit more interest from the yanks. You'd think that even with a low-end sale of DIS the discount is at least 30%, with 40-50% being the level for a 'fair value' sale.

First time I've seen a positive RNS from these clowns except for when we got the t/o offers. The issue I have with anything these shysters spit out is how much you can trust what is written, while also taking into account what hasn't been mentioned.

DIS and Comparison are performing well, but Search, they clearly want us to forget. Given this is the area that has decimated our valuation, you'd expect to at least hear something. But my slightly larger concern around DIS is that they have previously said 'valued materially higher than the current Mcap', and now they are saying they feel confident in any sale being worth more than the current Mcap. Using the word 'confident' and losing the word 'materially' is what leads me to a bit of nervousness. It could be oversight, but something tells me that any DIS sale is going to be below the $250m that we've landed on based on previous sales of this type of business. If they sell for $200m or less the mgt team should be put against a wall. DIS is growing and will continue to do so in the coming years. The lowest end t/o multiple for a DIS business is 8x Adj EBITDA, with the upper end being 12x. Our forward Adj EBITDA for 2026 is likely to be $24-25m, so anything below $225m is a steal for the buyer. And anything around $250m is fair value for both parties given sector growth over the coming years. And if any major player takes us over, they will get significant cost synergies and pricing power with the added market share. Bottom line, these f@cktards need to do a lot better than being 'confident' in any DIS sale being valued at more than our bombed out Mcap.

Also interesting that mgt has dropped an update now, when these weasels normally prefer to hide away whilst the market prices insider information. Not sure what to make of this. Anyway, hopefully we can regain the 50's on the back of this RNS.

if only our production wasn't locked into a ****ty pricing contract for over a year. god help us with calamity baay negotiating the new pricing contract, given how he managed a simple raise. i honestly cannot get my head around what the pr@t does for $800k per annum. the only things he's had full responsibility for over the past 2 years have been unmitigated disasters.

AI has given the best answer from my pov. States that it's likely an off-book trade between major funds. Suggests that Kestrel is the likely seller and Slater the likely buyer. Slater is a 'special situations' small cap value investor and likely looking at the break up value of the business, whilst Kestrel is potentially banking some cash with an interested party. This also likely explains the other large trades for circa 0.1% of issued shares. Doesn't believe there is a 'negative leak' as this sort of off-book trade wouldn't happen. Also, doesn't believe there's anything pointing toward a positive outcome being near. Just reshuffling and jostling for position.

Surely that would be like shooting oneself in both feet. The sp would be destroyed if they are selling. We have been told that DIS was worth significantly more than the entire capitalisation of the company at 50p ($160m). So let's assume they can flog it for $200-250m, why would Kestrel start selling now? Only thing I can think of is that the H2/Full year results are even worse than the last set they provided. Or another major holder is dropping some shares. So hard to tell when you have such an inept mgt team who allow leaks to happen for weeks before they update the market.

It was from Friday. SP was higher on the prior days. And it's now dropping. Says to me it's a sell. They'd normally provide a commercial update around now as well. This is the issue when you have a company and mgt team with d@dgy reputations. Same thing with TXP. You literally cannot trust anything.