Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
These guys are pretty bl@@dy good at making deals. Shame about their abilities on the PR front but perhaps this will give them a reason to get out there and start beating the drum. On similar metrics this must put the company on a value of more than double the current mcap. Just picked up 150k around 11.9. Very impressive.
Lemmings jumping also not keeping in mind that we got an extra £500k from the Selene f/o this year, and have ZERO costs on Selene from January 01st up until success case. If we do a f/o on Penascola it will be similar i.e. costs reimbursed plus free carry until agreed milestone.
I haven't done the numbers but would expect +£6m to cover our general mgt and admin costs for quite sometime. Essentially DELT will end up with cash of +20% current mcap with zero costs until we get results from both wells. One well is rated at 70% CoS by Shell (not us). And the other is an appraisal that Shell wouldn't be progressing if it didn't see value. Both have opportunity to open a wider area.
Success case on both, which is quite likely, and we'll be pushing 100p with cash in the bank and no costs. If Selene is a monster then we can maintain 25% ownership and raise $10m for an appraisal with about 10% dilution. Not hard to work out what happens if the f/o is on good terms.
Same idgits jumping for 10% will be buying back in a couple of weeks for 20% more. This is why I don't feel sorry for Aim lemmings.
Will gladly pick up some more if we go below 36p. GLA
Just profit taking. This always happens when people are waiting on news and they get something else. We may pull back to the high 30's and then continue upwards as everyone starts to think the news must be around the corner. Few things for people to consider:
1. Operations are set to commence on Selene in July. Penascola is committed as part of the H2 plan. And they need to get formal sign off on the f/o by regulatory bodies. So news is guaranteed in the next 12 weeks imo.
2. If they do a f/o they won't be requiring cash for a very long time. The operational costs here are very low as they're an incredibly tiny outfit. Selene is carried all the way to the success case so with a strike they still won't need to fork out on the appraisal.
The most important thing is they retain a large stake on Penascola. I wouldn't want them to part with more than 7.5% as Selene is already carried for some time, so they don't need any money on that front. If they do give up 10% (or more) they would want to receive more than just a free carry on the appraisal. If terms are rubbish they should simply do a raise. The market would be a little p!ssed off at first but they can def. get one away in the high 30's / low 40's and would need about £10m to cover everything, so 25-30% dilution. Hopefully they can get decent f/o terms with Shell or Dana. Getting in another partner would be foolish and make things harder on everyone.
I'll gladly be adding on the way down to 45p but doubt I'll get so lucky. Reckon we'll be range bound between 48-50p until we get news. Dividend should be a good one this quarter (and next). Reckon we'll pick up 6-7% just on these payments alone. SP should be looking to break ATHs based on past v current performance. With poo staying above $80 for the remainder of the year, and no local crazies, I see this as an easy 25-50% gain by year end. When you consider 10% of that is dividends +25% should be a cake walk. GLA
the 250k at 11.75p is mine and not a sell btw. must be someone offloading a decent chunk below that for me to get that price. no more for me unless we drop back to the 10's (and this wft bull**** goes away). gla
Anyone still invested here needs to give their heads a wobble. How in god's name are goimgtng to pay for 'ramp-up' when they're not producing anything. The AISC for Kour would probably be £3k right now. And then you have the legal dispute. And then you have Yan in Mali - any of you seen what's happening with Barrick? The best result here is they do yet another highly dilutory raise to keep the lights on. Reckon they'll need to add at least 50% more shares in the 5-6p range just to keep their heads above water over the next few months. That of course does nothing for the massive debt, or political risk in Mali.
I came over and tried to convince some of you to invest in SHG when it was 9p. Got into debates with the usual h@lfwits like Bushy who has done nothing but lose money here over the years. Any of you who followed me would have made an easy 50%. Those of you who stayed, well this is as good as it gets. For all of your dreamers, go and check out DELT if you want a brilliant speccy. You'll make 50-200% there in the next 6 months.
You're gonna get skinned here very soon. And trust me, a raise is the best possible near-term outcome. Absolutely nailed on.
Reckon 60p all time highs must be the next stop. Obviously there was a huge jump in poo due to Ukraine back then, but the company now has circa USD$100m in cash, is paying a double digit dividend, breaking new production highs, has transportation sorted, and appears to have the locals onside. Overall PTAL is in a much better place so there's no reason why this shouldn't be hitting new ATHs. Providing Brent stays at $90 I can see us there by early May. AIMHO GLA
When is the budget announced? Given gas prices are at record lows I'm not sure how they would could tax O&G companies without crippling some of them. And it's not like Canadian O&G companies are getting global prices, which comes down to government idiocy where they'd rather give the US extra cash on their commodities then fix their infrastructure. And surely they'd look at the lack of investment in O&G in the UK post WFT to see they'll lose out overall due to less investment delivering lower production and tax revenues, plus lay-offs / unemployment in their significant home industry. And finally the world gets to pay more to c@nt regimes in Russia, Middle East, Africa and Sth America. Mind boggling stupidity that I thought only a UK government could conjure up.
Oil up has no bearing on us - we're gas. And geopolitical uncertainty only impact oil producers. DJM, you're clearly here for a quick buck, which is absolutely fine. But you're coming across as a plonker.
As for resistance, there's charting and there's market psychology as well. You've funnily enough picked the Mcap levels of £40m and $50m to breakthrough (psychological barriers). These are the numbers I think we'll settle at in the run up to 1) f/o news, and 2) the first drill turning. We're now bouncing off £40m mcap, which we need to hold above post f/o news. First drill turning in q3 is then guaranteed (£50m mcap). Beyond that will depend on how many lemmings come running this way, and what we find. Two reasonable sized strikes with a lot of lemmings and I think £100m mcap (108p) will be reached with a shirt pitstop at our recent highs in the high 70's (post Selene turning up +ve). That's my take at least. First of all we need a decent f/o to be completed. GLA
for those who don't knwo malcy he's the o&g commentator that kicked the f/o deal up a gear when he said delt is a potential 10x. i pay attention to the shares he has in his bucket list but to be honest he can talk a bit of ****, especially with his forecasts. obviously under-valued here, which is why i invested. but there's no way this will 10x unless they prove up the two biggest gas finds in the nth sea in the past couple of decades and the lemmings go bananas. it is good for a 3-5x imo providing they have two great drill results and the f/o isn't too punitive. reckon 100-120p would be a realistic target range. gla
fairdealer i'd say it's only **** for pis if the raise price is way below the average sp in the prior 30 day period. otherwise i have no real issues with companies doing things this way. they have to secure the money and unfortunately pis rarely cough up anywhere near what they need. the most important thing is the raise gets the cash required quickly, and is done discreetly i.e. there has been no leak before-hand. judging by the share price level and action before / after the sept 2022 raise i'd say they've done things perfectly.
good thing is it's rare that you don't get an opportunity to buy in the following days at / below the raise price. on this occasion the major shareholders need the sp to double to get their money back, which means they're likelier to be sitting all the way to drill results. this is good for shareholders as it means less volatility up to drill results, and a greater likelihood that any gains will be explosive. so not bad at all imo.
definitely looking like a bagger here. reckon we might have another small pullback to the high 30's next week before pushing up to 45p is my thinking. good news and we're into the 50's. then the fun begins. gla
I'm guessing gas prices and f@ckwit government policy didn't help as well Dr Patience. There was also a hell of a lot of shares offloaded by Canaccord which must have taken a couple of months to shift. Either way the shackles have been released. Time for some news now.
Volume looks the same in Canada to me 3LBs. Just a little more upward buying pressure over the pond creating a small disconnect. Agree it would help to get some more coverage over there Vernet. Still holding out for sub 11.5p. GLA
I think it;s safe to say that if the deal is good there will be no more 30's and highly probable no more 40's as well. I may need to revise my sp milestones upwards if we're sitting in the 40's when Penascola news lands (providing it's good). The more coverage this gets after the Penascola deal, and in the lead up to Selene, the higher we will go. There's a hell of a lot of money sloshing about in companies like 88e and PANR that can get a similar return here to the spikes they see in those companies.
SP doesn't appear to be taking a breather. All getting very exciting. GLA
Fairdealer, I understand what you're saying and it happens all the time. Personally I don;t have a problem with not being able to participate in a raise unless the offer price is at a massive discount and is a give-away to insiders and those connected.
I don't see mgt offering a large discount here, so it's more about how much they can raise at a decent price. If they can raise most of the funds at a high price with a couple of cornerstone investors I think it could work out quite well. Often the sp increases on the back of such raises as we'd have the financing settled, have retained maximum ownership of a v.large discovery, plus there's less PIs flipping for their 10%. Either way it won't be long until we find out what they've been up to. GLA
Well one thing's for sure, the next update is going to be quite something. Not many companies have this much in cash for dividends and buybacks, zero debt, with huge reserves and production upside (if they can get the pipeline working). I think there's a good +25-50% by year end if Brent stays in the 80's, the Amazon water levels don't break record lows, and the locals don't do anything crazy. I'm confident on Brent +$80 and reasonably confident on the other two points. Have picked up 300k @ 46p average over the past couple of weeks. Tempted to go in for some more given the update we're going to get in a few weeks will be very positive. Only major thing that worries me is an oil spill int he Amazon, which would be catastrophic for the environment and the company. The irony is the pipeline was meant to be a safe way to export the oil and instead local h@lfwits have been sabotaging it a game of environmental Russian roulette. GLA
Dr Patience, I agree it makes sense. I think you were conversing with me on this a few months ago when I was looking to get in. Best option from my pov would be to take out a loan for $15m. Second to that would be a loan / raise. Third would be a raise at +40p (25-30% dilution). Final would be a f/o, but not if they're going to give up 10% or more. If a f/o, then I'd be happy if it went to Shell where 7.5% carries us until development. Less partners means it's easier to develop. And, easier to sell our stake to another party if we choose to do so. Anyway, that's my take on things. Reckon we'll drop back to 37-38p with the pattern of slowly gaining value until we get news. Not long now. GLA