Member Info for G_G_G

guys, there's no debating that casc and other production continues to decline. by how much, does it matter if folks are 500mcf out...? the corporate presentation on those pages shows continued decline, with the overall numbers greatly improved (masked) by central. on the recommended pages, it also speaks to 3 x wells, two of which have been a ****show, and the other being the one investors are hoping and praying will come good. so production overall will probably remain slightly decline in q4, even with the ****show casc 5 production, and improvements from central, as decline rates will likely have a greater impact. we won't get results until after cr3, which if good, conjob baay will milk to cover up what has been the greatest annual ****show i have ever witnessed by a mgt team in a company that i have invested in, and i've had a few shockers.

i've shared my views before. another casc type well for cr3, and the sp will get hammered back down to 6-7p. debt can be covered, but further drilling to improve production will require the compressor, vat and pricing changes to kick in. even if we drill another well in the next 12 months, it will probably just account for decline rates. we need 2-3 wells per year to keep moving forward. but if central delivers even 2-3mmcf (net), i think we'll get back to 10-11p. if 5mmcf (net), i think we'll move to 12-14p. and anything above 5mmcf should send the sp back to 15p, with an upside of a few more pennies if they drill a 10mmcf (net) well. the entire investment profile changes as there will be money to start drilling back to back central wells, and rapidly pay down debt, which is a huge anchor. i'd also expect the vat returns to be forthcoming, as the government will want to get as much central drilling done as possible. and after a few central wells you then get the pricing changes kick in, and they can start back at casc. the company will literally get flipped on its head and be back to the mid 20's within 12 months. but that requires another +15mmcf in central production in the next 12 months imo. this cr3 well is perhaps the most important since the first casc wells. so they better not f@ck it up. aimho gla

Haha. Even funnier that he doesn't hold that many cheap/free shares.

Maybe ConJob Baay is selling all those cheap and free shares that he takes each year for f@cking everything up. Whoever it is has a lot of shares to sell, that's for sure. If the same seller, they would be pushing 5m this week alone.

Thanks Bomb, perhaps it's because you're in Oz and something favourable is happening in the ether - where are you situated by the way? Central makes me think you're in mining...? Fwiw, I grew up in a little town called Sarina on the Whitsunday Coast. Then Brisbane, Melbourne and London for University and work. Seriously considering moving back, such is the dire situation over here.

Bomb, again a limit order at 7.42p and you got it filled? Who are you using? I can't get anything like that when i have placed orders.

Dunder, I'm not disagreeing. But I think you mean zombie company for a year. The pricing changes and VAT will allow them to throw a dart at our acreage and drill another well or two next year. The damage to the share price, however, will be there for another 12 months in single-digits. I simply cannot believe that ConJob Baay is still in role. How much does he need to single-handedly f@ck up the most basic corporate actions, destroy immense shareholder wealth, let alone confidence due to his deception, before he gets told to f@ck off. Extraordinary.

Looks like over 3m shares dropped in 250k and 500k lumps this week alone. Maybe another one or two tomorrow. Will be interesting to see what happens next week. Some very good value to be had now if CR3 delivers +5mmcf (Net), let alone 10mmcf (Net).

ConJob Baay misleading investors? Surely not.

These 500k and 250k dumps are quite something. Suggests someone who needs money in a hurry if they're happy to drop those numbers, rather than drip feed. Too early to be a bad omen for Central. My bet is they're doing it for tax purposes and therefore don't mind too much if they take a bigger hit on each trade. If so, we should see a jump back to the 10's next week. Fingers crossed.

john27, i think you'll find that i argued against us being a zombie company or insolvent with ross. but let's not make out that we're in a remotely healthy position. our health is poor. debt has ballooned to a level beyond where it was targeted to be, thanks to a series of calamity baay f@ck ups. we can, of course, pull right back on development costs to cover our debt obligations. but therein lies the issue. producing wells also cost money. and they decline, and casc continues to do so. so we need to be drilling at least 1 decent well just to tread water. for both casc 4 & 5, we don't even know their production levels, one year after they should have been finished. and these 2 ****show wells cost $12m!!! such is the conjob ceo that we have, who just keeps trying to hide failures and talk about something else to get folks excited. now he's talking about venezuela.

bottom line, a poor cr3 result will not break the company, but it will crash the sp back to 6-7p. and that's because it will say to the market that central doesn't have as much upside as we think. that our mgt team don't have a f@cking clue about geology anywhere on the island and basically sink a well and hope/pray they can drill it without issues, and that it will payback. we won't have cash to develop further until pricing changes kick in, at which point we will be slowly regaining production with every decent well, if they're decent. our debt pile is significantly more than our mcap, making any capital raise highly dilutive. we have a bunch of lying ****s runnign the show. the list goes on.

so cr3 is a bl@@dy big well for the company. if it hits 5mmcf (net) we will regain double figures, and imo get to 12-13p. but what we really need to get the company back on track is a 10mmcf (net) well. this will get the government excited, and no doubt vat refunds will be recycled more quickly. we'll have headroom for our debt. and be able to sink a few more wells this year, which if successful, will take the sp back to the 20's. but the downside is quite ugly, and for a while. there's no hiding this.

bottom line, i think the discord fanboys should stop relying on the numbers they are coming up with in their echo chamber and more on ai. the financials absolutely require cr3 to be a success. we have a significant debt pile, of which +$5-7m can be attributed to failed trin costs, failed raise 1 costs, debenture work around, raise 2 costs. you then have +$10m spent on the failed casc wells. and let's not get into whether they were failures, the slippery piece of **** is hiding the production numbers and not even pushing ahead with casc 4 remediation because 'he's sick of selling gas at $2.50'. we don't even know if it's a gas well ffs. casc 5 is f@ck all oil. casc 3 is f@ck all oil. so close to $20m spent for some ****ty casc wells, some corporate failures, and we have a lot more shares in issue. and we had to wait over 12 months for these failure to be delivered. why? because we didn't have the cash to push ahead.

cr3 is the well that means they can drill another couple of wells this year and hopefully get on top of debt repayments and into a cycle of increased production i.e. we're adding more than our decline rates. if it's another casc 3-5 response, then we'll need the pricing to save our @sses in 12 months.

and yes johno, the vat receivables should be a priority. our small neighbour that we failed to take over received theirs a couple of weeks ago, as far as i know. what happened to the biggest on-shore producer and our great relationship with the government status...? there's a chunk of debt that can alleviate our covenant issues, alongside another central well sitting there atm. conjob baay is an absolute joke.

no it's conjobbaay just talking **** again. i mean venezuela now, what a ****.

john27, you of all people should be the last person talking about how we can cover this and that through cashflow. the number of times discord members have shouted down people with such numbers is quite ridiculous. and none of them have come remotely close to the appalling figures that have ended up being reported. if we were so financially sound, we wouldn't be sitting in single digits after drilling such a promising well. simple as that.

as for the numbers you are quoting, there's a big difference between operating income and how much cash we're generating. here's your reality check:

overview: based on the most recent rns filings (up to q3 2025, released in november 2025), touchstone exploration is currently in a "heavy investment" phase. while production is scaling up, free cash flow remains negative because capital expenditures (drilling and acquisitions) are currently outstripping the cash generated from operations. note on cash generation: the company uses "funds flow from operations" as its primary cash metric. free cash flow (fcf) here is estimated by subtracting capital expenditures from funds flow. as you can see, the fcf has been increasingly negative over the past 12 months as they ramp up drilling at cascadura.

recent quarter analysis: q3 2025

the most recent quarter shows a company under temporary financial pressure but with growing asset scale:

- net debt surge: debt climbed to $77.75 million, largely due to a $12.5 million convertible debenture and the earlier $30 million acquisition of the "central block."

- production: averaged 5,141 boe/d. while this is an increase over q2, the "funds flow" dropped to just $0.74m due to higher financing costs (interest on that new debt) and higher taxes.

- the "waiver": crucially, touchstone had to obtain a financial covenant waiver from its lender for the end of 2025, suggesting they are operating very close to their debt limits.

next 12 months: outlook for 2026

- the health of the company over the next 12 months depends entirely on converting recent drilling into consistent cash:

- revenue growth: analysts project revenue growth of ~49% as new wells like cascadura-5 and carapal ridge-3 (results announced jan 2026) contribute to the full-year total.

- cash inflection: the company expects to generate roughly $22 million in funds flow for the full year 2025/2026. if they keep capital spending around the $23m mark (as budgeted), they will be roughly cash-flow neutral or slightly negative until the next major production step-change.

- debt reduction: management’s goal is to bring net debt back down toward $30 million by the end of 2025/early 2026, though this relies on no further major acquisition spending.

summary: touchstone is "asset rich but cash tight." they have successfully grown production, but the cost of that growth has pushed debt to a peak. they need a smooth, high-volume product

So you put a limit at 7.4p for 100k and I've been doing 7.65p and getting f@ck all below that price. Really not happy about that. Also, it's almost certainly selling at 7.4p. You've been lucky to get shares at this level. There must have been a glitch in the matrix for a short while today, but we can check again tomorrow.

How many? Limit order?

Bboy, are you saying that you picked up a buy at 7.4p? I've been buying, and the best so far is 7.6p

Has anyone else picked up shares below 7.6p today?

Highland, obviously any production could be argued as not being a failure. But the production is f'all. And it's not even the gas they were chasing, so points to them having f'all idea of the geology. And then if you frame the f'all production with close to $20m in Capex plus 9 months of wasted production (even though it's f'all), you get what could be described as unmitigated clusterf@ck of failures of mgt and our geo teams.

As for the 'd@g at my homework' excuses, well, we've heard so many over the years, haven't we? It was the broker's fault for the failed raise, and yet we have no legal recourse. It was TRIN mgt for the failed acquisition, and yet we have no legal recourse. If Schlumberger are 'taking full responsibility', then what compensation have we received, or is it just a verbal thing said to ConJob Baay. The drilling mud from what I understand, was cutting corners on costs, alongside the re-entering a f@cked hole, which we know was the case. Senior mgt failures! I hate to even think where the sp would be if we had even a semi-competent senior mgt team.

whilst i believe that failure at cr3 (like the failures of casc 3-5) would result in a sp drop back to the 6-7p range, i do agree that we would not be a 'going concern'. we'd be able to repay the loan interest and principal amounts required, and then pricing contract changes would kick in next year to allow for one or two more wells. but there would not be any cash to go after more production this year imo, as the compressor still isn't fully paid. and before anyone wants to argue that casc 3-5 weren't failures, they were **** wells, and the only evidence i need to support this assertion is the sp reaction after they were announced with garble, garble baay b@ll****. he's hiding their performance for a reason. and the other thing worth noting is all the 'experts' who claimed we were making $x easily, well no-one has been remotely near the ****house numbers they have been sharing with the market over the past 12 months. this is why the only thing that can be trusted is when it's in black and white. baay's b@ll**** to fanboys over the years has been appalling, and yet they still spout his cr@p like it's fact. and even when it's in black and white, you still need to wonder whether something is missing e.g. failed raise, hidden loan terms etc.

the sp is single digits because of the useless, lying f@ck that is our ceo. he's a charlatan who talks utter ****e to hide bad news and keep pis on the hook. the assets have huge 'potential'. but they always have, and now we have central, and yet look at the sp. that's the mgt factor at play. central success is critical to start a climb back into the mid-teens, and with another two decent central wells, back into the 20's and staying there (or better).

on my calendar the results will be early march. they'll need to flow test for a week or two before reporting, as hook-up appears to be end-february. that's my reasoning. anything above 5mmcf (net) and i'll put my neck out and say 13-14p. and anywhere near 10mmcf (net) i'll go with 15-16p. obviously both will get another shot in the arm with an announcement of another central well being spud.

for any gamblers, the odds are quite good. if cr3 is **** you get your money back in 12 months with pricing changes. if it's good or great you'll more than double your money in 12 months. aimho gla

I think anyone who wants to buy in volume is looking at 50-52p, which is what we saw yesterday. I expect there will be a bit more buying pressure in two weeks as folks start to take a position. AIMHO GLA

I read that our neighbour got their VAT refund a couple of weeks ago. What's Calamity Baay's response to that? Does he not want to ask too often just in case it distorts the VAT refund market? Hard to believe a minnow got their money before 'TRIN's biggest on-shore landholder and producer'. I thought we have this amazing relationship with the government (and our lending partners)...?

Ross, you have made some valid points, especially about the mgt team. But insolvency is a stretch, even for a f@ck up like Calamity Baay. At worst, they will have the pricing contract changes to save their skin. They just won't be able to drill any new wells until it happens, even with an extra 1mmcf from the compressor, assuming they don't f@ck that up as well. Success with CR3 (above 5mmcf Net), and I imagine this will add 30-50%, depending on whether they get 5mmcf or 10mmcf Net production. As far as gambling goes, it's actually a decent punt. You get your money back in 1 year if CR3 comes up tails. Or you more than double your money in 1 year if it comes up heads.

Just a shame that our charlatan CEO f@cked everything at a corporate level and his fanboys refuse to hold the useless, lying pr@t to account.