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Dunno. There's a lot of buying pressure that is trying to be released, and the peg is certainly coming loose. If they were thinking of waiting until Tuesday morning, it might be worth reconsidering and dropping a Monday 7am RNS. I'm not sure they can keep fulfilling the buy demand for another day, as it could conceivably shift +10m shares.

Not sure if my posts have made much difference, but I deliberately waited to share my views on the manipulation and what I was seeing, so there was no chance of setting off a run before I had built my stake. I certainly hope that I'm right.

NKOTB, it's "stabilisation' whilst in the final throes of a partnership deal. I wouldn't expect anything to change until they announce an agreement based on the 30-day and 90-day VWAPs. Much cleaner if you do it at week's end as well. Another reason why I think Monday could be the day.

Another big volume day, and the "peg" is still holding. They'll want to release it soon, as these are shares coming from somewhere linked to the "legends" driving this deal. Again, just my take on everything and I hope to christ that I'm right :) AIMHO GLA

NKOTB, If I'm correct the "peg" will only get released when the funding is fully signed and announced. If they announce on Monday, the peg gets pulled then. Whether announced or not, we'll know when it's pulled because it will open in double digits. I'm pretty sure they'll announce first though. Again, they will ensure all "i's" are dotted and "t's" are crossed rather than risk anything this close to the finish line.

Fwiw, I'm in my late 40's with two very young kids, so happy to wait 10 years if necessary. Doesn't mean I won't trim along the way for some nice holidays etc. Folks need to keep in mind that this is my thinking with the aid of AI, and to do their own research. There's still a chance the can gets kicked, or the little guy gets shafted, although I don't know how they could pull it off without putting a lot of risk into the project and timelines that in the grand scheme of things would be quite unnecessary. AIMHO GLA

Good question, it’s something I’ve heavily scrutinised through research and real-time market probing. The logic points to the deliberate "stabilisation" phase, coming from shares in side pools (like Everblue) or "borrowing" against the upcoming allotment. Summary of thinking again:

1. The "Why": Preparing the Partner Entry. Assuming the share price is being stabilised, a high probability given the action since the lock-in agreement, the only plausible goal is to facilitate a capital raise at a fixed, defensible price.

2. The Target: A 20% allotment is the "Sweet Spot", it’s the maximum allowed without an EGM or pre-emption triggers, and it takes us to a clean ~999m shares.

3. Regulatory Defence: This raise likely excludes the "Legends" directly to avoid "Unfair Prejudice" challenges during negotiations. By anchoring the price at circa 7.4p (marked by the Chairman’s recent sale), they satisfy the NOMAD that the deal is at a "Fair & Reasonable" market average.

4. Observed MM Mechanics: The Auction Guard My own buying program (7.3m shares) allowed me to witness the "Auction Guard" in real-time. This isn't just about supply, it’s about matching sells to buys to ensure no extra volume is picked up at the bell on large orders, and the price settles in the desired range.

5. The Shredding: Supply is rationed into 25k clips, shredding buys against tiny sells to hide interest.

Indaba Momentum & The "Weekend Signature" If I were defending a multi-billion dollar future wealth, I would follow this exact playbook:

1. Sign on the Weekend: Secure the ink while the market is closed to prevent "leaks."

2. Monday Morning RNS: Drop the news at 07:00 AM to drive maximum PR exposure and engagement at a Fund/II level during Mining Indaba stage and pre-presentation that can then focus on the project and partner arrangement.

3. The "Hero" Status: This timing allows the management to walk into the Mount Nelson and enjoy the "Legend" status they’ve earned.

4. The Peg Benefit: Releasing the "peg" a day earlier avoids issuing unnecessary shares at lower valuations.

5. Incentives: The 20% buy-in provides the ~£3m/year overhead capital needed to carry the PLC to "First Ore." Meanwhile, the "Legends" and partners will likely earn 3-5% performance bonuses in shares for closing key stages linked to funding i.e. signed agreement, decree, FID.

If this plays out like I am hoping, they have found the "Clean & Clever" way to generate global reputation and immense wealth without legal or political risk. If the company survives it will be worth £10bn in 10 years with Stage 2 at full capacity. Imagine what happens if they expand to 60mtpa. It comfortably becomes a top 50 FTSE100 stock. I watched in awe as Fortescue went up 1,000x in 5 years as a much younger man. It started at a much lower MCap, but this has 50-100x in 10 years if they structure the deal as I pray they will.

MerM, there's not. There's sells matching buys within a tightly controlled range.

NKOTB - see my previous posts. The "legends" will not risk this deal to give away shares at mate's rates to anyone but a major partner. It's not in their interests, and they cannot benefit given their locked-in status. It would also give the NOMAD a nightmare. They don't make often mistakes, and this would be one. The partner would provide the financial runway needed for the PLC, and a whole lot more.

99, I think it will be a consortium made up of partners that we already know, and perhaps one more. But I don't see debt being part of the equation. I think the "legends" will go for the cleanest deal possible by minimising PLC dilution, gaining maximum value from giving up 50% of the project, and ensure any debt is carried on partner balance sheets with some off-take agreements and port toll, power agreements etc. for the life of mine being pulled from OpEx. All clean. And most importantly, everyone wins. The other reason why I think a Gulf partner will be front and centre, other than the obvious deep pockets, need for high-grade IO feed, and sovereign cover, is they are NOT CHINESE. Trump won't react to minority Chinese ownership in another Simandou and major Gulf ownership. So even this political angle would be covered.

Anyway, there's my dream laid out, and why I've put over £500k in here. I cannot see a downside that shafts us that wouldn't pose a huge risk to the "legends' and the project itself. AIMHO GLA

The Incentives: Aligning the "Legends" Expect the partners and "Legends" to continue receiving advisory fees and performance-related bonuses, likely in shares, totalling another 3-5% of issued equity. This is standard for projects of this scale. It means the management has everything to gain from a successful 30Mtpa build and nothing to gain from screwing the little guy. They want the accolades and the multi-generational wealth from a company that will eventually throw off $3bn in annual FCF. At 30Mtpa, the company will be worth $10bn (some of them will be billionaires), and they will be collecting dividends in the mid to high 8-figures annually. They are building a legacy, not looking for any legal headaches along the way.

The Timings: The "Indaba-to-Election" Window

- Indaba (Feb 10): The "Reveal." Expect an announcement of significantly increased NPV10 and the unveiled partnership structure. Note: Once funding is signed, alongside presidential decree and FID, this NPV10 will shift to NPV8 and another +30% as funding/sovereign risk vanishes.

- The Signature: If not signed on stage, it happens before the Feb 26th lock-in expiry. They won't risk a rival bid landing once they are free to trade.

- The Political Play: President Nguesso needs this for the March 15th Election. By announcing now, he proves he is building a "Green Steel" economy. This provides "sovereign protection" for IIs and major funds, and no nasty surprises if the project is the centre of his campaign.

- The Decree: Signed shortly after the election victory, followed by FID end 2026, and construction in early 2027.

Final Thoughts I’m either going to be "smart and wealthy" or not so clever, but I’m betting on the former. If they do what I'm thinking, the "Legends" will have found the "Clean & Clever" way to generate god-like status in the mining industry, plus immense wealth, all without the risk of financial, legal, and political challenges. They are not going to mess anything up, and I think the sp "stabilisation" at our Chairman's sell-price is the start of the process to get this Tier 1, multi-generational asset toward becoming a reality.

If I'm right, the only question is when they announce the partners. I'm going for Monday am - they get to enjoy legend status at Indaba, plus huge interest/PR by the time they speak on Tuesday. SP being released means the partners have signed. One Can Only Dream!!! AIMHO GLA

I haven't posted what I think about the manipulation here, as I’ve been madly accumulating and now just finished my total holding of 7.25m shares. Fwiw, I’ve been one of the big buyers over the past 2-3 weeks, sometimes picking up 1m in a day, so happy to share what I think is happening now.

Imo there is clear manipulation as I’ve been testing what the MMs are doing, probing auctions, and noting clear patterns. We are being anchored to the 7.3p–7.5p range. Why?

- The Synthetic Ceiling: Every time heavy volume buying occurs (including mine), the SP is pulled back in auctions and at closing. Even an intraday break above 8p is quickly neutralised. This ensures ZIOC doesn't hit riser boards, while the MMs "shred" sells to satisfy buys into unnoticeable chunks. When there has been significant volume, like the 5m day this week (I picked up 1.25m shares that day), they have cut down the available stock to a maximum of 25k orders to keep a lid on volume. This is why you saw so many of them - a lot were mine.

- The Floor Support: Conversely, if this were a major exit, the SP would have collapsed. Instead, it hits a hard floor at ~7.3p and is only allowed to rise to satisfy demand, never exceeding 8p. The VWAP is controlled with high and lows always supported.

The "Why": Imo they are managing a partner entry (likely Gulf entity). The MMs are holding a tight VWAP range to allow a major partner onto the register at a pre-agreed price, likely the circa 7.4p 'marker' at which our Chairman sold recently to 'cover tax costs'. This satisfies the NOMAD and regulators that it’s a "fair" market deal based on 30/90-day averages near the Chairman's sell point. Legally, they can call this "stabilisation" as the deal is being thrashed out. It is perfectly executed.

The "Who" and "How Much"? (The Consortium Model) Beyond the 20% PLC-level entry (which takes us to a clean 999m shares without an EGM), the project-level structure is likely a classic "Consortium" JV:

- The Gulf Partner (The Bank): Providing Capex via an infrastructure fund (think Arise IIP/Saudi links). They get PLC 20%, and an offtake of 20%. This would cover Port and related infrastructure free carry, but likely with a toll agreement (or something similar derived from Opex).

- The Chinese Partner (The Builder): Major EPC firms (like PSEI/PACE/CMEC). Their role: A fixed-price, "free-carry" mine/power/pipe builds in exchange for a project-level equity stake. Again agreements set as part of Opex for power etc. But no dilution.

- The Project Structure: ZIOC retains 50% of the project. A 50% "giveaway" split between the partners for a $2bn+ free-carry build, which would be industry standard for a fully-scoped and permitted Tier 1 project.

To be continued...

and if it's ****, they'll bungle, bundle and then bury :)

Not sure what you mean by your first sentence.

As for Buffet, he would do both. And when he has invested in O&G it has been in large, stable producers, in stable fiscal environments. TXP cannot drill a bl@@dy well reliably, let alone forecast commercials for the following quarter. Hence why I keep saying that Calamity Baay needs to go. He's an absolute f@cking joke of a CEO.

Johno, fair enough if a statement was made on all Casc wells as it's well known we've had a couple of very good ones, even with the declines (to be managed by the compressor). It reall is a coin flip in that field though.

Sturm, there's a reason why Buffet thinks pe ratios are a waste of time. It's about fcf and when looking at ratios use EV. It takes into account how indebted a company is versus earnings.

Agree that CR3 flow rates will be month end at best. I personally think it will be early March, and probably best to report on an extended production rate.

That 700k buy overpaid, but good to see a counter to the big seller the past 1-2 weeks. AIMHO GLA

i really don't understand what is being argued here. they have drilled a number of casc wells. some of them initially great, but with significant decline rates - unless someone wishes to argue this point...? and others have been totally ****. no point cherry picking the good ones when there are just as many bad ones where the roi would be shocking. all this points to is our mgt team still doesn't have a sound understanding of the geology of casc, and until we get results there's no way anyone can count on their 'forecasts'. they drilled into the 'sweet spot' for casc 4 & 5 and ended up hitting oil instead of gas. pretty much says it all. it's also why the sp is still in single digits, even with the central logs looking great (as they did with casc 4 & 5).

i think ross makes some decent points about the gamble on txp at the moment. it's pretty hard to argue against the failures we have witnessed at both corporate and development levels. i don't agree that the company is cactus with a dud cr3. but there's definitely a decent level of risk still involved, and the sp can easily stay in single-digits if the well if 1-2mmcf. fwiw, i'd put cr3 being +5mmcf (net) at about 75%, which is why i think it's a decent gamble atm.

So much for my tax bill theory. Another 300k just now...

Yeah, disagree Ross. I think the sp will crater to 6-7p then come back as Calamity Baay cannot f@ck up pricing contracts. And, providing the compressor operates as expected, the added production from Casc 4, 5, CR3, even if poor, plus Compressor will keep the sp range bound in the single digits but climb back to this level by end of year as pricing changes approach. That's why I say it's a good 'bet' as there's far less to lose from this level versus say 12p when they f@cked Casc 4 (again) and Casc 5 ended up being nothing remotely like what they were forecasting. It wasn't even gas ffs.

Great place for new entrants given what we know about Central already, and there have been no f@ck ups with the well or seemingly the hook up (so far).

Highland, that comment isn't quite accurate. I think you mean to say he won't provide single well detail because it shows the extent of some of their development f@ck ups. But of course he will provide CR3 detail if it's successful. You need to always keep in mind that Baay is a conman, so is going to share the good news, and always try to bury any bad news. Currently there's no good news, but CR3 could change all of that.

johno, apologies i missed your question a day or two ago on the vat refunds. i don't have a link, but i read somewhere that predator (if i recall correctly) had used their tax benefits for their current development plan.

as for asking about casc paybacks, perhaps best not to ask that question, as it wouldn't look pretty if you included all casc wells. i do think ross has some valid points on decline rates (they are clearly flattening but also continuing), difficult geology (it's a coin flip in casc), inept mgt etc. if his points weren't valid, we wouldn't be in single digits. imo the worst of these matters is the inept mgt, as this has caused the greatest damage to the sp, and the f@ck ups by baay will always weigh on the sp because of the number of shares printed, and to be printed if we ever get past 16p, paying for his mistakes. unforgivable for any ceo let alone one who is a walking ****show and proven liar, and taking an $800k package of which he doesn't invest in the company he runs. you couldn't make it up.

what i don't agree with is the existential threat to txp if cr3 is like casc 3-5 i.e. poor to very poor. they can manage debt easily from cashflow, but will probably have to wait until pricing contract changes next year to drill (m)any more wells. the damage will be significant (back to 6-7p imo), as the market will have little to no confidence in their ability to monetise both casc and central, and will focus on the debt pile, which is significant for a company of our size and a fat, freeloading bod with a gold-plated f@ck up ceo. the compressor will help keep folks invested until next year's pricing changes.

quite good odds here though. you lose 25-30% for mno more than a year and get your money back on a massive failure. or you more than double your money in the same time-frame with a 10mmcf (net) well, which is what has been delivered in the past. and you have a freeloading ceo who knows this is the last roll of the dice for the pr!ck, hence why he is now in country and looking to cover his @ss. aimho gla

they've managed to drill the f@cking well without issues, so that's a good start at least.

So, who do you think is manipulating the sp Futsal?

Mitch, I agree. I'll share my thoughts on who and what I think is happening next Monday eop. On small shareholders getting shafted, I cannot see a way this can happen without the 'legends' shafting themselves, either by losing immense value with their holdings alongside us, or the legal/reputational repercussions should they try to shaft everyone but themselves and the partner(s). They want a clean win where everyone is happy so they can get on with building a mine that in 10 years will be spitting out 30mtpa, over $3bn fcf p.a, and valued at over USD$10bn. F@cking over PIs would be a massive error in judgement, which these men rarely make. Imo they're focused on hundreds of millions and billions in multi-generational wealth and industry fame with this mine.

Agree Sturm. But everyone was saying similarly positive things about both Casc wells, and look how they turned out. At least they managed to drill CR3 without issues, so that's a good start for Calamity Baay and the clownshow. Having said that, I do agree that +5mmcf (Net), and no issues with the compressor, should have the company on solid ground and ready to start a climb.

Another 250k block, this time at 9p.

Tax bills being paid by the end of January. It could of course be a major holder offloading. One definitely better than the other, given the sheer volume being dumped over the past week or so.

There also appears to be a quite determined seller out there. I was hoping there would be a pop after last week, which I thought could have been selling to cover tax bills. There were around 5m shares dumped last week in 100k-500k batches. Certainly a decent punt at low 9's. You lose 25% in the case of a shocked to get your money back in 12 months. Or you can +60% in the event of a 10mmcf (Net) well and then stand to profit a couple of pennies further with every other +5mmcf (Net) Central well that they drill. Still a gamble, but certainly better odds and outlook when you are buying in at single digits.