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Has Shubham or anyone else done an EV:EBITDA analysis of the Canadian O&G patch recently? It would be interesting to see where we sit against peers. I have our year end EV:EBITDA at bang on 3 at current sp. Seems pretty crazy low. Especially when you consider the December EBITDA they are estimating. If they keep production stable for 2025 and commodity prices are stable at WTI$82 and CAD$2.25 then your ratio drops to 2.3 for 2025. Any flex on flat production and / or average prices and the multiple gets silly.
Interesting to see what happens next. Some may hate me saying this but don't be surprised if we drop back to the 9's. Lack of newsflow and weak gas prices for the next 4 months could see further deterioration in the sp. There is of course another asset disposal that could happen, which would put a rocket under current values. AIMHO GLA
Agree it's all a bit suspect. Problem is I'm leaning toward them doing a raise, or raise / farm-down combination and have driven the share price down so PIs see it as a win when they raise int he high teens.
They have just over £5m in the bank. If they give away 10% of the field to Shell for a nominal fee, then they'll require a raise of circa £6-7m. Surely this isn't too hard to find when you have a billionaire as your biggest shareholder. It would mean circa 35% dilution at current sp.
If what I'm saying about a raise is correct then PIs with cash at the ready could do quite well. I don't see any way they can do a raise and not include PIs. Having said that dodgy AIM operators like to put a Primary Bid offer out in the afternoon and you have to subscribe immediately. Will find out soon enough.
sorry i should add the worst case scenario for shareholders is the sp keeps dropping and they double the share count at 12p (unless you're buying in at this level). not at all ready to put any money back in here. absolute ****show now but have no doubt that some people will make a lot of money if they can time it right. gla
reckon this is almost at the value of selene drill alone i.e. penascola already written off. if anything is going to happen it will be in a few weeks. i wasn't aware of the may deadline for the deal to pass so i'm thinking they had their potential f/o partner(s) fall over and recognised the need to tell the market before it became a nasty surprise for everyone. it's either that or they've lined up major shareholders (or potential shareholders) for an investment, but have been told it needs to be at xxp. or, the whole thing has gone to **** and they're about to hand over a very large discovery to shell for nothing. that's the worst case scenario and i'd say when the sp hits 15p it's well and truly priced in. aimho gla
Still feeling a bit sick from today. Took a £100k total loss in the space of 30 mins this morning. Total loss about £80k from original investment. Absolutely gutted.
I won't be surprised at all if they magically find the money from investors with deep pockets in the next few weeks. They'll let the sp sit here for a while so PIs think it was the best possible outcome and not revolt when the share count more than doubles. Make no mistake this would be the best possible outcome as well. The alternative would be losing Penascola for nothing, and taking at least another 5p off the sp. If this goes down as I think it might then expect a late rns with a primarybid 'offer' for those PIs with cash at the ready. As crazy as this sounds, if it happens then I'll drop some money back in here. Otherwise I'm well and truly out. GLA
Spike, Shell haven't pulled the pin. They're still going to drill Penascola and Selene. Any discovery and appraisal success will realise value for them or another Nth Sea player especially if Labour don't change what the Tories have in place at the moment (or don't tinker too much). Drills are going to happen, it's just a matter of Penascola ownership.
As for Michael Spencer, you've already pointed out why he would need to pay nearer 20p. There's no way mgt would give away so much of the remainder of the company (Selene) for nothing. They may as well just give away Penascola, which in turn would drop the sp by another £5-10m with less chance of a decent return for Spencer. Point being, it's better for Spencer to put £10m in and have a chance at the company re-rating to £80-100m value on the back of Selene plus Pensascola. Or he loses another £10m in value by doing nothing, on top of what he has already lost. In for a penny, in for a pound.
Company also has +£5m in cash and no debt. Anyway, let's take this over to the other board. Sorry i3e posters.
Reckon you might be surprised Spike. Michael Spencer owns 20% of the company and is a billionaire. He can watch us lose Penascola for nothing, which would cost him more than £10m. Or he can stump up £10m and make it all back and more. If I were him I'd hand over the money required to get both drills turning. I'm thinking today's news could have been to wipe-out the sp so a 20p raise is more palatable. We'll find out soon enough. GLA
Dr Patience, no I wasn't aware of the May deadline. I put it down to not having done enough research. Not sure it would have made any difference as I would have seen it as news being just around the corner, and that news not being what we received this morning.
I may be back Dr Patience if this is what they;re going to do. Absolutely stunned by today's news. How we managed to get away Selene on such good terms and not a discovery is mind boggling. Best case outcome is they give away 60% of the company to some wealthy shareholders. It would be nuts to let Shell pick up 30% of the field for nothing.
Surely Michael Spencer could pay for this out of pocket change. Not sure what Richard Sneller is worth.
Fairdealer, the majority shareholders may have been unwilling to fund the drill at +30p. However they may have told our CEO they would do it for 20p. Hence the number we're bouncing around now. If this happens then you know the deal was agreed before today's rns. There's no way they could tell the market they cannot get a f/o away and have raised £10m with some multi-millionaires at 20p. They need shareholders to believe it was this or nothing.
The rns is particularly bad, which could be for a reason. We'll find out in the next 4 weeks. Good luck folks.
One avenue that I haven't mentioned, which would be the best case scenario, is finding some parties with deep pockets to raise £10m. This would mean an extra 66% shares in issue at today's sp. They can probably get an additional £1-2m from the market. And they have just over £5m in cash. So it's possible for them to get this over the line and still have a couple of million spare. Or they could try giving an extra 10% to Shell (for a nominal fee) and raise less money. This would mean £10m is required in total for 20% stake in the field. They would then need to raise £7-8m and use some of the £5m cash they have in the bank.
The big question is whether they have already spoken to parties with deep pockets who have said they'll only stump up £Xm at 20p. If this is the case then mgt need the sp to drop to current levels in order to sell the raise to shareholders i.e. it's this offer or we lose the license. Out of interest, does anyone know who our biggest shareholders happen to be, and how much skin they have in this company?
If this is what happens then it's already been agreed. If I was worth a lot of money I'd see this as a pretty safe bet. The issue isn't the government at the moment, although they are a bunch of h@lfwit c@nts. The issue is getting the cash to appraise a multi-decade discovery to re-rate the sp. It is years away from development but the start-up value is now.
If indeed a raise is announced in the coming weeks then I'll come back for more. They will have 2 guaranteed drills. And will have maintained higher ownership of a potentially huge gas field (although at the cost of significant dilution). If this happens then I feel the sp could re-rate quite quickly to +30p. Only good if they offer the same deal to PIs and you have cash spare though. Will have to wait and see now.
AIM is so murky.
To answer your earlier question, yes I'm completely out of DELT. Too much risk now.
As for the f/o, given they managed such a great deal recently on Selene (well to be drilled in July) I think it was fair to assume the f/o was nailed on, and only a matter of getting decent terms. For it to not only fall over, but be flagged as potentially worthless and handed to Shell is almost unbelievable.
I have no idea where they go from here, but think the best case scenario would be to find some parties with deep pockets and raise £10-12m. This would mean an extra 50% shares in issue at today's sp. They can probably get an additional £1-2m from the market. And they have £5m in cash. So it's possible for them to get this over the line. And I won't at all be surprised if they manage to pull it off at this sp. If they do then I'll probably go back and pick some shares up as they're likely to jump very quickly post raise with 2 guaranteed drills and having maintained 30% of their significant discovery. Will have to wait and see now. They may have already spoken to parties who have said they'll stump up the money at 20p so need the sp to drop to these levels in order to sell the raise. Who knows. As you've said, this is AIM and you only need to look at what happened with SHG to see how murky the waters are in this market.
Thanks Stas. I have to say when I woke up and saw the rns today I thought the complete opposite was going to happen. I took a £100k hit today, which is a good (and last) lesson for me on speccies. My immense dislike of UK political parties knows no bounds at the moment, so agree on all Nth Sea comments today. The entire UK O&G industry is about to be wiped out by successive ret@rded governments. Not sure we could even sell a unified Tain and Serenity if they picked up the Tain license so probably best to drop and focus on Canada. I doubt this will have any impact on the sp as well.
truly ugly. not sure why i bother with speccies. turns out i was the rainbow chasing lemming on this one. sorry to those i dragged across on this.
can't put into words how much i hate the political parties in this country. plus side they have got £5m cash in the bank and a high impact fully carried well in a few months to retain value. there's also the outside chance of a f/o, but imagine this will be on rubbish terms unless this is all about pushing an existing party for a deal. or there's an asset sale rather than handing it over to shell. shell is the big winner on this one. incredible delt cannot borrow and raise £12m. reckon pis would give them £2m. it was about finding the extra £10m.
flag has been put up today. full disclosure i dropped 100k yesterday and another 500k this morning at 21p. have been hit for £200k in 1 week with i3e taking a bath in this time as well. what a ****ed week this has been. last time i got smashed by this much was when the uk shutdown for the pandemic.
full disclosure i dropped 100k yesterday (thankfully) and the remaining today at an average of 21p. have been hit for £200k in 1 week with i3e taking a bath in this time as well. what a ****ed week this has been. last time i got smashed by this much was when the uk shutdown for the pandemic. good luck to all remaining holders. too risky for me and should have learnt my lesson on speccies by now.
still can't believe this exploration find can't find a partner thanks to our f@cking id!otic political parties.
As for being a long term investor, I've been here since the insider trading days of our failed Nth Sea exploration wells. So Tony and I have been sparring every now and then for years. How long have you been an 'investor' here? Sounds like you're a bit salty about the recent pull back. Don't worry, it's part of being an investor in i3e. You'll get used to it if you stay here for a few years.
bit of a weird little rant there ibb. firstly, i'm not sure anyone on here kisses my feet, and certainly not tony. i'd also say it depends on how you define the word 'investor', but holding onto a stock when it's likely to go down isn't exactly smart investing now is it. i'm guessing you're one of those types who believes 'investing' is sitting in a stock no matter what. thankfully i'm not, which is why i managed to get out in the high teens and buy back in the 9's. you should try it some time.
as for 'doing homework', who gives a ****. it's not about who provides the information, it's what you do with it. i like to read everyone's views on here, positive and negative, and appreciate the workings of people like tony. ultimately it's my call on where to 'invest', and it all boils down to whether you're making money or not. thankfully i've done alright out of i3e. nowhere near as well as i could have done, but nowhere near as bad if i held all the way down to the 9's.
and yeah i like to call my trades, in and out, like many on here. i'll let you know when i start accumulating again :)
It would be even more disappointing if in another 2 years we're still below 16p though. Have to keep in mind we've been given a couple of pennies in dividends the past 2 years. But if I were a major holder right now I'd be very tempted to take 16p rather than sitting and hoping AECO is resurrected in the next 24 months. This is why 16p I think would be considered given where we are now. AIMHO GLA