RE: Tweets11 Feb 2026 14:06
Stas, with all due respect, you have followed me over here and got caught on your 10% trade. I don't mind you doing this, as you did with PLSR, but trying to argue this is remotely good value for the project is ridiculous.
Firstly, I was talking about future valuation protections, as in the future numbers being thrown around by Feeks are far from guaranteed. As for the Shareholder vote, does that include all the related parties that we know nothing about? And it's for a 50% pass with those unknown related parties voting? The conversion at 15p is only if they don't pay up in time. Defined timelines, do you mean for Tranche 1 sub-tranches 1-3 (guaranteed), but 3/4 not so? Over 12 months, but they can pay whenever they wish? That's not defined in my book.
As for my statement about trading 98% of the project's NPV for $150m - what exactly is wrong with this? It's their numbers. They also use future estimated $2bn EBITDA to justify the pittance that PIs get for their 1% (note they didn't use 0.5%) annual royalty. It's not emotional. It's using their numbers.
You talk of all these risks. Yep, that's why it's an NPV10 base, and not an NPV6-8 like in Australia. FID is $25m - you think that would be hard to raise, and it would cost them 20% of the project if they went external? Seriously? The $1bn debt - I know you are new here, but the development side of things are well progressed and will likely be free carried for project ownership or a usage fee derived from Opex. For example a tolling fee for the port with Gagan Gupta and ARISE who got the $700m cash injection from the Saudi PIS for African infrastructure projects last September. He's the guy who just announced his beneficial ownership of a major shareholder company, the day before this deal, and he'd sold down 4% of his ownership (likely to keep a lid on the sp for the 30 Day VWAP) and this disgusting smash and grab.
They are taking 87.5% project level to sell or free-carry probably half of it in order to fund development. They end up with 50% of Zioc and 45% of the project. For less than half of the development costs to date. Do some AI research to see the valuation placed on Tier 1 projects at our stage of development (Defined Resource / Reserves, DFS, Mining Permit and Environmental Permits (in law), DRI upgrades, MOUs etc). They are valued at 10-15% of NPV 10 for Sovereign Risk 2-3 countries (scale of 3). Even if you take the Stage 1 NPV only, without value enhancements, this is 2-3x their offer valuation. And then do some research on the deal done across the world for major mining op
Anyway, I really cannot get into this given that you are new to the company. I was in here 9 years ago over a couple of years, and it has never left my sight. This was the company that could 25-50x in 5-8 years, and all the lth's know exactly what I'm saying to be true, because they have done the research and comparisons for a decade. Take the 10% trade when you get the chance.