Member Info for G_G_G

i based my entire position here on what mgt told the market in the 12 august and 09 september updates i.e. they would hit market consensus on revenue and adj ebitda.

i'll give mgt the benefit of the doubt and say they are f@cking incompetent for not knowing their numbers, and more so for buying the ****show that is shinez. for these reasons heads should roll. the fact no-one has 'resigned' is one thing. but it's absolutely unforgivable for the ceo and cfo (cfus - chief f@ck ups) to not be supporting the sp by doing interviews reassuring the market about the revised guidance, the ridiculous value on offer, their enhanced shareholder return and future growth plans, identifying who the 'seller' is and addressing their need to exit, and buying some f'ing shares themselves. this goes beyond incompetence. and it's the fact that mgt are content in doing nothing as the company's value implodes that i've started questioning whether something else is going on. i suggest all pis write to the company and even call the numbers on their website to voice their concerns and suggest to the clowns running the show how they should do their jobs. lord knows these guys need some help.

Jesus christ, look at the sp. We've now dropped another 5% and below £200m mcap. Wtf is going on here? Obviously a major shareholder is offloading. What are mgt doing to identify who is selling and executing a BB from them directly? This would immediately stop the rot. Why are they not doing interviews if they know this is happening to reassure the market on their investment? They can even name the fund offloading so the market will be informed of who is creating this destruction (other than mgt), and see if they pop up later in some d@dgy dealings. I'm almost waiting for the RNS saying Kestrel has agreed to take some or all of the company for 25% premium to a bombed out share price. I cannot put into words what I'd think (and want to do) to mgt if they turn out to be in c@hoots with Kestrel or some consortium who are deliberately screwing us over. The BBs are being executed in a way where they are doing nothing to support the sp, even on low volume days. They are however slowly growing Kestrel's holding. And the silence from mgt when we have halved in value on the back of a modest decline in guidance is absolutely shocking, especially given their incompetence is the reason why this guidance needed to be adjusted.

This is getting beyond ridiculous. Mgt should be looking at any and all possibilities to improve shareholder value. This is their f@cking jobs and what we pay them to do.

Few things they could do if they were remotely good at their jobs:

1. Interviews.

- How far does the sp need to drop before they speak to the market and tell them of how ridiculous company value has become?

- Why are they not selling company strengths, and reassuring investors about CPM declines and what they intend to do with the dog they bought in Shinez? Reaffirming the reduced guidance they have provided, and plans for future growth.

- Why are they not telling investors about how they intend to support the sp moving forward e.g. increasing BBs, cutting costs etc?

- Why are our clown mgt team sitting back and doing nothing, unless of course they want the sp to decline...?

2. Investigating who is doing the selling. The company has a duty to shareholders to maximise value. By identifying the seller they can make an off market offer for the amount they intend to offload. This will not cause further declines, in fact it will support the sp as buyers on the sidelines will know the selling is finishing and combined with BBs we should see strength moving forward. Why are the mgt team not doing this, unless of course they want the sp to decline...?

3. Instructing Zeus on maximising value from BBs. As Stas has pointed out the BBs are allowed to buy shares at 105% of average daily sp value. Why are mgt not doing anything on BBs, unless they want the sp to decline...?

Either the mgt team have been misleading the market and the entire company is a complete sham, or at best they are sitting idly whilst company value is being decimated by a constant seller on the back of misleading (f@cked) guidance they provided to the market twice in the past 12 weeks. For them to be doing nothing is unforgivable afaic. They have created this immense value destruction and yet they feel content in doing absolutely nothing to reassure the market and investors on the back of the revised guidance they have provided.

I have sent an email to the company but received no response. I'm guessing their investor relations are as poor as their leadership qualities. I'm truly disgusted in mgt doing absolutely nothing to support the sp that has been destroyed by their actions. They should resign on principle, especially the id!ot who was responsible for the Shinez mess. What sort of DD was done to have made such a mistake...? I'm seriously starting to believe that mgt are deliberately wrecking the sp so they can sell part / all of the company to Kestrel for a song. Just like at SHG. Absolutely stinks here at the moment.

Dartron, I've got 600k shares here. I chased it down to get my average to £1.16. I believe this is incredibly under-valued, but any more money in here would take the risk profile off the chart for me.

Good for you to be getting in at this level. I thought at £1.30 it was a steal. The sp should still be there, but look where it is. We've seen immense value destruction in a company that was already on crazy multiples, and is still growing. Clearly there's something afoot. And mgt doing f'all to change things only makes the smell worse. For all we know they're not buying in the market because they are about to sell part or all of company for f'all and take a massive bunch of cash for themselves. I can handle getting an investment wrong. But I cannot handle being cheated. And this has all the hallmarks of small investors getting screwed.

Dartron, you're talking about Kestrel teaming up with one of the worst funds in the history of capitalism to take a company private for a 19% premium, but where they still retained their 25% ownership. Great for Kestrel. Shareholders there didn't get screwed because the trajectory over the years was always up. The premium for late investors was bugger all though.

So what's to stop Kestrel teaming up with Inter, Slater and mgt to get a t/o away for a 20% premium to now where they all retain their ownership in the newly privatised company? No doubt mgt will get bigger pay cheques, bonuses, and some equity once a deal completes. There's a lot of ways we as PIs can get completely screwed over here. The one way to avoid it is for the sp to be at a reasonable level when any t/o offer lands. So your talk of them buying back more shares a lower level being good is far from it. They are growing Kestrel's ownership whilst company value is being suppressed, which is bad for us if we're in their crosshairs. They can get to the 30% level without having to spend much at all. And then with a couple of willing (but well compensated) accomplices they can steal the company for a song.

Clearly you haven't been screwed over yet on these types of deals. Trust me this stinks more than the times it has happened to me. Seriously suggest people start emailing the company to express concern and ask what they are doing to increase company value, which by the way is their job to do. Their job isn't make fat cat fund f@cks even wealthier by screwing over smaller investors in dodgy deals. At the moment the sp is being manipulated which is plain to see for everyone here. Ask yourself to what gain for us. Great that you're buying in at the low 80's. Not so good for anyone who has invested here in the last 3 years.

Crl, the same thing happened at SHG. That company sp would now be almost twice what they fleeced investors for when it was sold. One of the board members bought the company for a joke level and the entire bod was complicit in the sham. They were even saying things like the gold price is going to crater etc. PIs had supported the company through all sorts of issues and just when it was debt free and throwing off tons of cash it effectively got stolen. The final figure (which was increased after a mini revolt) was the equivalent of less than 2 years profit at current gold price. It was disgusting.

If Kestrel and this bod are trying to pull the same thing I'll use whatever funds I have to go after them. The whole thing here has an incredible stink to it. I struggle to think of a single other company with metrics like ours and a BB in place where the sp is still dropping, alongside the bod doing nothing to help stimulate it. The sp is near 5 year lows. Go back to then and look at the difference in numbers be it Revenue, GP, EBITDA etc. It's mindboggling, unless they're about to f@ck us over. I suggest everyone here writes an email to the company outlining their concerns about manipulation. And, ask what the bod are doing to fix the share price. I couldn't care about them buying back at these low levels if the sp is being manipulated to sell the company (or part of it) at a huge discount to true value. This is what shareholders need to be calling out now.

great letter stas. i'll send the same note. btw i have already sent them an email saying similar things but in a somewhat harsher tone :) they haven't replied. i've got a terrible feeling the sp is going to stay down here for a little while longer before we're 'saved' by a ****ty offer. mgt putting their hands in their pockets would of course also help the sp. and yet we have seen nothing from those who are responsible for the mess. interesting.

Agree there's nothing mentioned about volume restrictions for the BBs. I have seen this in other BB statements, but nothing here. As a consequence it's somewhat disconcerting that Zeus isn't continuing with much heavier weighting at the moment. I agree with Stas that it is very organised how buys are being matched to sells going through. They're deliberately holding a lid on the sp to buyback cheaply. The issue I have with this approach is it provides an opportunity for a derisory bid to land and look appealing due to the moving averages being low and moving lower with each week. But perhaps that's the end-game...?

Darton, I agree with a lot of what you have said in a prior message but not that it's in our interests for the sp to be so low. As for Spire, I know this company quite well and there's plenty of reasons for the sp dropping. The BB they are doing is also token. Their mkt cap is more than 4x TIG and they are doing less than 1/3rd of the value. The tokenism of their BB I suspect is to support the sp for mgt bonuses.

Stas, good point re. Kestrel. I'm thinking they could be one buyer of the company. Otherwise it could be our Chairman's new fund, which has stated UK Digital Marketing as being a target area for an acquisition.

From my pov the sp is clearly being manipulated. To what end is the question. The city and mgt teams can be so crooked that it's difficult to work out who is doing the manipulating until the sp is bombed and an insulting offer lands. I also see mgt having many levers to pull to help increase the sp, and yet they are doing nothing. Interesting given they are responsible for the bombed out valuation of the company. Perhaps doing nothing and allowing the sp to languish better serves their interests...

Hi Latius, no I actually made money on Vistry because I sold and chased TIG down. I'm down over £150k on that investment now so left one dog to jump into another. Hardest thing about it is I cannot get my head around why TIG is down so much. Nor can others except for manipulation for a low-ball offer. They reduced annual guidance but are still growing. And all their key metrics - PE, EV:EBITDA, Price to Book, Price to FCF etc are at absolutely silly levels. Never seen anything like it and cannot find a single reason for the sp level. They are even aggressively buying back stock and paying down debt. Incredible entry for anyone looking for a bombed out company that is a cash machine.

Aligator, I don't believe North have sold so there's the reason from my pov. Unless the source of the North story is the person managing their exit it's all hearsay. I've been in multiple companies where people know people who have said a major shareholder has exited and it has not been the case. I've heard it and then seen an RNS saying the company had just passed a threshold i.e. people saying a company had exited and then we get official confirmation they just went through 4%. This is my experience of these things and it always takes twice as long as people think. Fwiw I have no doubt that North have been the source of a lot of the selling, and would be at a much lower level than the last update. But I think they probably have another 1-2m to go. We'll see it when they're gone because the next rise to hit the 36p barrier won't see us fall back to this level. We will however bounce back due to PIs taking their 20%. Only big news on an exploration well, or a very big production well, will give us explosive growth. Otherwise it will be a jump with small pull backs over the next 6 months. T/o could also occur but unsure who would be the predator. Another couple of great wells and maybe an SQZ type company would find us attractive... GLA

Exactly Stas. This absolutely stinks. I think the company needs to do some digging on who is keeping the sp depressed. This has all the hallmarks of a dodgy t/o. The sp is restrained for long enough that investors when faced with 130-140p are willing to capitulate. The offer will be made to look good with various daily moving averages. If we're still down here post Xmas then expect a t/o offer to land around that time. The only was for PIs to do well is to average down.

In the meantime I've been looking at various measures on Stockopedia where they simply look ridiculous, even wiht recent downgraded guidance. We have a PE of 4.3, Price to Book of 1.8, Price to FCF of 4.15, and EV:EBITDA of 4.4. These numbers are straight up nuts. Even if we were 50% higher they would be nuts.

Company needs to keep doing what they're doing with BBs and announce another bigger commitment asap. Mgt also need to buy at least 100k themselves. They've created this mess so only right for them to help get some additional momentum behind the company, unless of course they're 'in' on the t/o as well. GLA

Also plenty of block sells to match it Johno. I don't believe North are out, but they're probably down to their last 1m or so. Some good news about the next wells being drilled and 2025 plans should help to clear them. Still think it will be Xmas Santa rally when we'll push up toward 40p. Getting into the 40's will need some more well results in Q1. AIMHO GLA

Stas, I agree that something is off. We cannot have this amount of shares being purchased by the company on relatively low volume days and not see the sp moving up unless someone is counter-acting the BBs. It's bizarre. Good thing is the company has a lot of powder dry providing we don't get low-balled before the next set of results or announcement of expanded BB commitment. Certainly worth the company trying to find out who the b/g seller happens to be.

Out of interest, what value do people think is required for a t/o to succeed? And I'm talking realistic numbers given the sp is struggling to break back into the 90's.

Actually some good volume today.

SirMark, when did you pick up the 300k? And were they block buys?

Still not convinced that North are gone. Will need to see us move into the mid 30's and not drop back again on block sells before I think they're out. Would of course love to see the back of them. My pf has taken a beating of late so having us back in the high 30's will certainly help to ease the pain. GLA

I understand what you're saying Dartron but any offer made for us now would be at a 50-60% premium at best. This takes us back to 130-140p range. The multiples provided by IWantthatOne are 50-60% higher than this level. I'm not saying the business isn't worth these numbers btw, I'm simply saying that no-one will pay anywhere near those numbers when the sp is f@cked. They will however pay 130-140p. And I think they could get this sort of offer over the line providing Kestrel are in favour. They just need the sp to be sub £1 for the next couple of months so the market believes it's a good deal. Hence why I think some manipulation is happening. Easy to say 140p is a great deal to the market using weekly, monthly, 3 monthly averages. To be honest I wouldn't care too much. They can have my shares at 130-140p. I'd prefer to cash out for a 15-20% profit than see the sp languish below this level for another 12 months. Lots of bargains in the market at the moment, but I'm not going to sell for a 25% loss because mgt f@cked up on Shinez and clearly had little understanding of their numbers just 8 weeks ago.

SP is a gift for anyone with cash. Even if they achieve zero profit growth over the next 2 years they will have effectively paid off debt, plus bought back 25% of the company (if they divert the dividend). Hard to see this not reclaiming 150p over that period otherwise the multiples will be crazy. They just need to focus on the maximising the core business over the next 12 months and not make any more acquisitions. The exception to this is if they do a US listing and move away from the UK. They can raise capital very easily and US investors are far more comfortable (appreciate) debt funded acquisitions versus the UK. Goes without saying the acquisitions need to be better than Shinez though.

Imo mgt should use 2025 to get the current business optimised, remove the dividend, and announce far more aggressive BBs and debt reduction. No f'ing about with more acquisitions or spin-offs. If they want to use their spare time for anything they should sell the company, or focus on a US listing. This may not maximise growth, but it will maximise sp value. They can then start looking at acquisitions again.

Mentioning Shinez legal consultation sounds like an excuse for their very poor DD.

Good to get your thoughts Johno, much appreciated.

Agree they need to provide an update in early December on the next drills and expected production dates. This should give the sp a shot in the arm, and clear North (if they still have a holding). As I've said previously I do believe they are holding shares and selling down. We are sitting in the 29-30p channel again. North continually sold down to this point before stopping, letting the sp recover, then selling down again. I think this is what's going on at the moment, hence why I don't believe they are cleared. Some production numbers, confirmation of 2 x new wells being spudded this year, and the usual Santa rally should see them cleared by Xmas. Then we can push back toward 40p. I don't feel we'll breach this number until the next wells have been drilled and producing. Whether this is a fair valuation of the company when in this position isn't relevant. Look at the sp now compared to where we should be. Some new producing wells, and ideally some exciting news on upgraded / new resources will light the touch paper though. These will be hard to ignore and hopefully we'll see some of our previous 30-50% jumps in a matter of weeks. North being cleared should allow us to break resistance and fill historical gaps. AIMHO GLA

Why the hell would someone buy part of the pie for the same price as the whole pie. Makes zero sense and will never happen imo. Mgt going down this route demonstrates they're not focused on the things that matter and chasing something that is unlikely to change our fortunes. If they want to do something that will definitely have a +ve impact, then they should de-list from the UK and re-list on the US mm.

I do agree the continually decreasing OM margin is a concern that needs to be investigated and mitigated. Having said that, they can still increase revenue and profit by focusing on the higher growth parts of the business, and fixing the Shinez mess, which is a huge drag on the sp. The OM business is still growing from an impressions standpoint, it's simply the rpm that is creating the headache and needs to be better understood.

Stas, I've asked the same thing about who is selling. The company would do well to investigate who is selling (or trying to manipulate the sp) and propose an off book purchase of their holding. My sneaking suspicion is we're being sized up for a t/o and a connected entity is helping to suppress the sp.

Current BB rate is good and at some point will beat the seller, especially if they're stepped up another level. Mgt do however need to put their hands in their pockets and add a few hundred k. They've f@cked things up and should do it as a matter of principle. GLA

At least the company and Kestrel are doing BBs. I'd like to see our CEO and CFO do the same, and in a big way. They've monumentally f@cked the sp and should use the money we pay them to help re-rate our ridiculous sp. Selling off the family silver points to them being even bigger clowns imo. They f@ck things up and then talk about selling off our assets, which as a whole are being valued at pennies on the pound. What could possibly make them think someone will pay the sort of multiples mentioned in other posts when the combined business is half those numbers.

Mgt need to continue with current BB levels, which is the only good thing they have been doing post f@ck ups.

What they also need to do:

- Increase BB commitment by another 25m shares for 2025 (10% issued share capital). They can use the dividend to help with this, or point it toward debt repayment. The dividend is token. And no-one bought here for a small income contribution.

- Not make any more acquisitions. Focus on maximising current core business revenue and profitability, and paying debt down.

- Make share purchases themselves in a significant way (+100k shares combined).

- Fix the Shinez mess they have created, which is responsible for half the recent sp drop.

- Demonstrate a far better understanding of their numbers. There is no scope for them to miss the reduced guidance. They need to beat it.

- Sack the 'leak'.

If they want to spend their time on anything else they should look into de-listing from our joke UK market and re-list in the US. No family silver sell offs, which would probably be to a 'connected' party at a joke multiple. And no more acquisitions until they have fixed the recent uner-performing large acquisition that has been made.

The idea of breaking up the business at current valuations points to short term, poor strategic decisions making. It also means they're not focusing on the things that matter - making the more core business run better, and improving key financial metrics via BBs and debt reduction i.e. PE, EPS, EV:EBITDA, PB etc. Hard to ignore the investment thesis when these metrics are moving in the right direction and less than half market averages.

All of the above suggestions are simple, and easy to execute. And all of them will add 30-50p to the sp in the next 6 months even if EBITDA and profit remain flat. Once we're back to 130p they can start talking about an asset or company sale.

In the meantime continued +200k daily share BBs and Kestrel purchases will eventually move us up. But I'd say we'll only get to the 90's pre-Xmas. They need to put their hands in their pockets to get us over £1. The rest will come from demonstrated core business delivery, and an increased focus on BBs and debt reduction. The next quarterly results will hopefully show they are succeeding in these areas. AIMHO GLA

Thanks Johnno. Was there a time frame provided for when the next 2 x Casc wells will be completed and producing? All of the other information is interesting, but won't move the needle on our utterly ridiculous sp. PB and co have always had a great way of talking about the future. I'm concerned about the now, and near to now. Given the sp now starts with a '2', I think they should be more focused on this as well.

Jesus you guys just don't learn. The company is f@cked and always has been with trust fund baby DB at the helm. I've been saying this for years, alongside not listening to Bushy. The company is toast no matter what the outcome. At leats you can still get a bit of money back here.

The director buys on 05.11 were nothing and look like rounding errors. For a company that has so many directors, and so many historical mis-steps, I believe directors should be putting their hands in their pockets for as long as the company is under-valued. They of course get the benefit of a lower average and seeing the sp increase in value from their actions. They're also aware of the need to clear a major holder, so should be doing everything they can to support the sp and clear the seller (ultimately benefiting from doing so). The fat bod should either do more to support the company, or the company should trim the fat.

I see we're in the 20's now. I wonder at what sp these guys feel it necessary to do something...? Let's hope there's no operational f@ck ups or delays to spudding the next wells in the coming weeks. Almost at the end of November and still no news on the drilling having started and when we can expect to see production come online. GLA