Member Info for G_G_G

letter to the fca if the results are shocking next week. there is zero reason for this sp action. we've inexplicably dropped 12% the day before our next trading update on reasonably large volume.

i re-read the last results rns and literally everything is green. it also says this:

'the directors remain confident in the group's strategic investments in product innovation, vertical integration, and international expansion. these initiatives have positioned the group for success. given these strong foundations, the directors are confident that the group will meet market expectations for the full year.(vi)'

(vi)latest analyst forecasts are within a range of usd 931m and usd 984m for fy24 gross revenue and usd 105m and usd 115m for fy24 adjusted ebitda

hard to see how in just 12 weeks everything has gone pear shaped. they have increased the dividend and been doing bbs this entire time as well. the numbers should be easy enough to hit with the addition of shinez. i simply cannot see where the issue is here unless they have some dodgy accounting practises. if the results are bad it would be so blindingly obvious there has been insider trading. hopefully good news and we can say that pis **** the bed after it turned red today. what a cr@p end to the week. we await monday morning.

would be quite clearly insider trading if the update has some nasty surprises. to drop 7% the day before news on absolutely nothing is straight up dodgy. i'm in the same boat btw varun. i've now got 325k @ 131p so will lose it if we get some dodgy ****e on monday. certainly shouldn't be priced at this level if everything is on track, as per their last statement. gla

wtf is going on with the sp today...? never good to see an inexplicable 6% drop the day before results. volume is reasonable as well. better not be some surprise **** news. given the last update and 'everything is well on track' messaging it would be quite a nasty surprise. not long to find out. gla

Agree the 866k and 625k trades today have certainly been chunky. Hope to christ it's not insider trading before some incredibly disappointing news. Given the size of the trades it's almost certainly North. I'm going to revise my estimate for them to below 2.5m remaining shares. Good flow results and they're out in a week. GLA

Well that's my last 25k here. Picked up 15k and 10k at 33.5p and 33.45p. Took a bit of time to get the 15k away, which was weird. 775k @ 32p for me now. Seen some big trades today. The 625k trade, if North, has certainly made a dent in what they have remaining. Providing they are responsible for 50% of selling since the last TR1 then I'd expect they'd be sitting on 3m shares remaining. That level should be easily cleared within two weeks if we get flow rates above 40mmcf combined with positive words from mgt. Keep in mind there will be PIs selling on the way up to 40p, so North won't be the only ones banking cash. But once they're out and the next set of drills are turning we should be banging on 50p. That's when I'll think about taking some cash off the table. Update in the next 6 working days. Hopefully a Friday screamer for the market to digest over the weekend. Squeaky bum time now. GLA

Well that's me in for 35k shares. Been looking for a housebuilder and have to say Vistry wasn't near the top of my list, but the drop to 700p seems a bit hard to ignore. Longer-term (1-2 years) and this is a solid 50% gain providing interest rates drop back into the 3's over this time. Picked up in 10k and 25k blocks. Was happy with price - 25k @ 7.037. And 15k @ 7.04. Just seen we've dropped into the 6's though :(

Mgt have truly f@cked up here, but the BBs are going to provide quite reasonable support for recovery. They can now pick up 20% more shares at current depressed sp. Having said this the CFO making a similar statement with a +ve spin is highly unprofessional given the accounting irregularities are in his domain.

Main thing for me is Vistry is quite profitable even after booking these profit downgrades. Hard to work out multiples given the differences in mcap across all sites. The Vistry website has mcap at £2.35b so I have used this. If correct the £300m adjusted profit before tax (post £150m write downs) makes the current sp a steal. This of course assumes all skeletons have been revealed. It could drop another 10% to 630-640 range, which I see as the absolute bottom given interest rates have pulled back, government commitments to housebuilding aimed at lower end demographics, and improved house buyer sentiment. Drop to 5 year lows when we had the pandemic, plus cost of living crisis, seems highly unlikely given +ve 1-3 year outlook. If we get back near 600p then I'll drop a lot more money in here. Happy to go as high as 100k shares and sit for 2 years. As I said there's an easy 50% over 12-24 months from this sp. AIMHO GLA

Oh dear. I keep this dog on my watchlist just to remind myself of how bad AIM investments can be. Bushy, looks like you'll need to find somewhere new for your mindless, incessant ramping.

Fellas, all I'm saying is large holders always take a lot longer than you expect to exit. Anyone who has seen this happen will know that what you think will take 1 month will take twice as long. Realistically I think December with some good flow results of 40mmcf combined. If they announce next week +50mmcf combined then we'll clear them in a couple of weeks. Either way we'll know when it has happened as the sp will climb +20% in a week. I'm in for 750k here so trust me when I say that I want them to exit asap. I just don;t see it happening for a little while. And this is with good to great flow rates plus more wells being drilled. All that matters now is +40mmcf. If we get this Xmas will see us 50% higher than now. I'm tempted to go in for some more but still nervous about these drills. Reckon I'll have an opportunity to get some in the mid 30's if North are continuing to depress the sp. AIMHO GLA

Actual shares changing hands isn't 4m today. If North were sellers of 50% of shares then 1m have been flushed out. At best 2m the past few sessions. They had about 7m shares in total remaining. So there's a decent way to go. If we can get a couple of 10m volume weeks then we should be rid of them and able to bounce up to the high 40's. But that will require some good flow rates and confirmation of our forward plan over the next 3 months. Another good day, but major sellers always take a lot longer to exit than most expect. With good results worst case is Xmas, but hopefully by end of month and we can enjoy a nice Santa rally on confirmation of the next drills turning. GLA

Since when has AIM had ethical board members. I was in SHG. Then i3e. Look what happened to them.

Our Chairman could quite rightly point out that +50% is maximising shareholder value. What happens next would be up to the new owners. Hard to say with the sp languishing at £1.30 that £1.80-£2 isn't maximising value.

You having a laugh, care to provide some reasoning for the sp staying here for a long time? I picked up another 25k shares today. Happy to keep buying at circa £1.30 up to 400k shares. Reckon this has an easy 25-50% in the next 12 months. Easy money to be made. GLA

Would someone mind posting the Cannacord note here. Broker (and Malcy) targets are normally a joke but good to know what the retained financial 'experts' are saying.

Again I hope you're correct Johnno, but doing things at pace isn't the norm here. And to be honest I'd much prefer they focus on production over the next 12 months before putting anything toward exploration. The benefit of course will be that any exploration investment will be easily absorbed. There's a lot of Casc proving up / delineation that needs to occur at the moment. Either way we get 40mmcf combined or better and it's a good outcome. Hoping for a surprise to the upside of 50mmcf and we're off the to the races. LTHs here (not including me) deserve some good news. Not long to go.

Constant selling here for quite some time. Company is picking up circa 250-300k shares per week (smaller volume today and yesterday which is odd), but this should have provided some support from these levels. There shouldn't be any surprises next week given recent guidance, so the multiples will just keep getting better. I also believe our Chairman's recently set up fund is sizing us up. They have stated digital marketing space is a key area for acquisitions. And they have up to £1bn war chest at their disposal. They only need to agree a price with Kestrel and the deal is done. Reckon £450m is the starting point and £500m would be the cap, so £1.80-£2. It would be a steal, but that's why they would go for it. Re-directing BB and dividends they would have paid off the deal in less than 6 years at current return levels. Seems like pretty good multiples for a growth company. Monday is hopefully the end of this sp malaise. GLA

Hi Johnno, yep that's the hope, but as I'm sure you have experienced over the years it takes a while to get rid of a 3% seller. Yesterday was 500k shares changing hands (1m volume). If we say that North was 50% of these we have lost 250k of baggage. Reckon this is a somewhat realistic way of viewing things, but that's my pov. So to shed 6m shares we would need 24m volume (12m shares being bought / sold) if we attribute 50% to North. Even with total volume today being 2m it's only 3m over 2 fairly high volume days. Throw in Canada and you have an extra 25%, so 3.75m (out of 24m minimum required). Work it through and you have 15 days (3 weeks) of this level of buying / selling in UK and Canada if they're responsible for 50% of all shares trading hands. It's why I've said a month if news is good to very good. Xmas if average. Longer if they've f@cked Casc 2 or 3. Fwiw I also don't think they will make up 50% of all shares changing hands.

Of course I'm happy to be wrong. Just using my past experience where SHG and Plus 500 had Crispin Odey selling a similar holding. It took SHG, who were in a stellar / good volume environment, about 6 months to get rid of them. Plus 500 is a much bigger company but it took a similar amount of time to lose the shackles.

Smasher, they have done all the development, which is the first big de-risk hurdle and most important imo as it allows us to extract the gas. This could have been a monumental banana skin if they f@cked things up. Now they have to demonstrate a good understanding of the geology and ability to optimise production / monetise. I would argue they haven't as yet demonstrated an understanding of the geology or ability to optimise production. Once the market feels it can count on 20mmcf per well or better this will fly. I think some good Casc 2 & 3 results will do the job. Rio is a great bolt-on for the future. But we don't know the commercial value, and it's likely a year or two before we can (read should) monetise given Cascadura is our cash cow. Casc will also allows us to easily explore Rio, which could be very exciting. Less than 2 weeks before we get news and a step up to the 40's (even with North selling). GLA

Undoubtedly some more great news today. Agree that North selling is what's holding us back. We need some good flow rates in order to break out. They have been consistently selling for many months. The only thing stopping them has been lack of volume. So they will exit, eventually. We need to have a month of 5-10m volume in order to be rid of them. I'm unsure we're going to get this type of volume unless the flow rates are at the +50mmcf combined level. If less it will probably be Xmas with the Santa rally and new drills turning that will be the last push for them to exit completely. That would provide an excellent final de-risked entry point for those sitting on the sidelines. Either way anything above 40mmcf and this is a very easy hold for 50-60p in the new year. AIMHO GLA

This is the most important news from my pov. The executional risk with new production facilities is always very high, even with us being on land. They have confirmed that everything is in good working order, and testing has commenced. We also have 140mmcf processing capacity. So the riskiest element has been addressed. Now we await flow tests. Anything above a combined 50mmcf and this should re-rate sharply. They also need to give some timings around the next two planned wells. This will signal to the market that we're in full ramp up phase and there's going to be another 50mmcf landing in 3-4 months. Great news today. Having a major seller still exiting provides a gift for new entrants with considerably lower risk. Only 2 weeks to go. As another poster has mentioned, we need some serious volume in the week following upcoming news (hopefully good to great). I imagine the sp will react with spurts of +10% jumps with pull backs just like today. They have over 2.5% to dump so figure there will plenty of opportunities in the following week or two to pick up shares in the mid to high 30's. Great news. Long may it continue. GLA

Varun, you are correct that tig are seriously under-valued. There is no bear thesis that I can identify unless mgt have misled the market on their recent TU that reaffirmed market expectations on sales and Adj EBITDA. I expect us to break $1bn sales next year. Dividend to be increased this year. And continued BBs of circa 5% in future.

The recent weakness I put down to CGT and IHT risks in the budget. The whole market is being impacted by CGT, whereas AIM is being smacked for IHT. Just how much recent selling is going on due to these reasons is difficult to quantify, but I imagine it has become somewhat self-fulfilling in the run up to the budget. Either way I have funds ready to pile in. If the tax worst case scenario comes to little or nothing then I'll add to my holding today as I would expect a quick rebound to the 130s and then 150's. And if the worst case becomes reality I'll likely wait a few days for the dust to settle before piling in. I see the absolute bottom as £1 and more likely hard floor at £1.09.

I def. think this is under the radar of many investors. I don't think this will last forever. The next set of results will be strong and garner attention. And I would expect a main market listing or US listing if the gov.t f@cks AIM as there is little incentive for staying on the market if they remove some of the tax shelters. Both scenarios will create a re-rate. I also strongly believe we will get a t/o offer if we drop much further. I'm in for 250k at 130p average. I'll at least double this in the coming weeks if we drop further. Conviction Buy from me.

Two more days until they're definitely late on guidance. PB may have confused the market on his October 17th date, but the end of the month was the date we were due an update on Casc 3 & 4. The brokers have had their jolly and the fat man has had his fill. Time to give the market something now. GLA

That;s what I mean Johnno. We haven't dropped below 29p but they've offloaded 1% of their shares over the past couple of months slowly dripping them into the market. Every time we've dropped to the 29's the selling has dried up and we've jumped 10-15% in the following days. If they have a set level at 29-30p where they won't drip sell it would explain the bottom and jump, before repeating the exercise. They clearly want out. That's the problem as it will be a handbrake on the sp until they bugger off.