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Good post and reminder Sturm of the worst quarter we are likely to have for sometime i.e. Q3. With the two new wells coming online in the second half of November I would expect we will generate 50-100% higher financials for Q4. And closer to 100% for Q1. Big question though is when will the next 2 x Casc wells come online. With decline rates the next well would simply replace lost production. We need to be drilling 2 x wells per quarter if we want to push up toward the 100mmcf plus NGLs you have mentioned. This should be achievable if they have a drill plan ready and they get the necessary approvals done quickly. To drill 8 x wells in 13 months should be achievable if PB and his fat bod focus solely on 'drill to fill' and nothing else. This would cost circa $35m, which would be easily covered by net income and they should also be able to pay down half our debt in this time. If they throw in some wildcats and hit gold the 100p target folks have been talking about seems reasonable for this time next year.

To my mind bad news will be limited to 1) delays in drilling new wells, 2) infrastructure f@ck up, 3) huge decline rates for Casc 2 & 3.

The first is fixable and will simply require additional patience. The last one I don't see happening yet (too soon to know). The infrastructure issue is the black swan that could f@ck things. Having said that it appeared from the last update that everything was on track. So I don't see Tuesday as being anything bad and the trading over the past couple of days certainly doesn't point to this. If there are delays and the sp weakens further I will go in for some more. The company is at a turning point. And because they have locked in gas prices plus blue-sky exploration acreage, I see this as an easy double / triple over 12 months. AIMHO GLA

My take is it's due to BB rules. Providing we stay at or above 87p today they should be able to continue with BBs from this level moving forward i.e. weighted average should be circa 84p so they can buy up to 89p. With each day we stay nearer 90p they can continue with collecting shares at a slightly higher level. Key is for them to go for large quantities as / when allowed. Some decent director buys would obviously help catapult the sp up to £1 but these f@ckers appear to be content with seeing the sp languish below levels they have said don't go anywhere near true value for the company. As always I suggest PIs let mgt know what they think about this. I expect we'll be in the 90's pre-Xmas and hopefully above £1. GLA

I think the main thing for next week is for no nasty well decline or infrastructure surprises, and PB providing a timeline on when the next wells will be drilled and producing. Accompanying financial forecasts should also be shared. The market can forgive timing and target slippage so long as it can see a clear road to riches. I know TXP has a habit of dropping and jumping on a sixpence, but do believe we're looking at end Q1 before we start seeing +50p. Again this is fine so long as investors can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Time for PB and the fat, useless bod to step up. Tuesday awaits. GLA

Must admit the sp is getting a bit concerning now. This is the lowest level in 5 years if you exclude the 12 weeks post lock-down. Incredible to think if one considers the current position pf the company versus back then.

Good post John and agree with a lot of what you have said. I would however say they need to focus on 'drill to fill' for the next 9 months. They can do some exploration wells when we're 2-3x current production levels this time next year. Debt will be all but gone and they'll have cash spare to go after whatever they want. For now they need to demonstrate an understanding of the geology and monetising our known assets. AIMHO GLA

We need to close at 88p or higher for me to start thinking this is the beginning of a re-rate. Long, long way to go thanks to bod f@ck ups. Suggest folks write to the company asking why the CEO and CFO haven't bought nay shares ot make amends for their failures.

reckon this is still north selling. never believed they were out as the volume wasn't there imo.

as for the sp today, well there's little volume at the moment so unlikely there's any 'leak' of bad news. like johno i'm struggling to see the bad story here. there is a delayed story, which appears to be the way with pb and his fat bod. having said that, they have infrastructure in place, a much bigger acreage with blue-sky potential, and another 2 x wells hooked up that are producing good volumes and throwing off cash. annual targets will not be met, but they should be exceeded in h1 next year providing this useless f@cking mgt team can get their **** together and focus on drilling wells to fill production capacity.

johno, i was under the impression they were going to be drilling two additional casc wells this year - is that incorrect? i'm sure it was mentioned in an rns or interview this was the plan after the trin escapade failed.

tuesday they need to lay out their plans, production and noi targets for 2025. they should also provide an update on current production, new well performance, and estimated 2024 production and exit rates. finally, they should provide a timeline on the well(s) that are meant to be getting drilled already. providing this information would be the f@t useless bod simply doing their jobs, so we'll probably get half of it. gla

Oh boy, this is looking positive for once. Into the 90's!!! Gap to be filled next. Could be quite fast if there's anything behind the recent jumps, like a t/o offer is about to land. GLA

Maybe North aren't done yet - I have been saying it will take a lot longer than most people think to get rid of them.

As for the update, well PB had better make it a good one. At the very least he needs to confirm that drills are going to be turning this month.

Reality is his big mouth and a lack of execution by his fat bod is the reason the sp is in the 20's. If these guys f@ck anything up again it will be quite detrimental to the sp. Folks need to keep in mind the reduced annual production target will not be met. The hope is they will hit the exit rate target, and confirm two drills will begin this year with expected hook-up in Q1. He also needs to paint a very clear, realistic picture of what will happen next year i.e. how many drills, what they will be targeting, expected production plus NOI for 2025. These should all be good news stories and will hopefully drown out the negativity around missing production guidance. Not having drills turning and not hitting exit rates should not be an option. They also need to trim the fat bod. Good thing is any drop will be short lived. Bad thing is my cash is tied up elsewhere. Let's hope PB gets it right for once. GLA

Good post Stas. Bottom line, we need a couple more days in the high 80's so they can keep buying at this level and support the sp. Would be good to know who was behind the buying yesterday.

Yesterday also points to the value of Directors buying. If the CEO and CFO who f@cked things up picked up some shares we could easily jump back into the 90's and perhaps above £1. Very p!ssed off with these clowns for not attempting to clean up the mess they have created. GLA

It's pretty good Stas. 30p obviously better but an opportunity to average down if you believe in the story :)

What's the other investment SirMark?

F@cking algos playing today. Having said that, a few more rns' with +200k shares purchased and the odd decent Kestrel or Director buys thrown in and we'll be back to £1 quite quickly. Market will have to wake up to the crazy metrics here at some point. Maybe a Santa rally. Maybe the run up to results end-Jan / early Feb. Either way the tide will turn over the next 6 weeks. Providing mgt hit or exceed revised guidance the 120p gap will close. Onwards and upwards.

About bl@@dy time we started to see a recovery. Lets' hope this is the start of a genuine re-rate and not some II or algo's f@cking with us the other way.

If so, it will be great to see sustained 6 figure buys at 100p and above. They pulled back 0.1% of shares in issue just yesterday. So happy with what they have been doing from a BB pov. Also goes to show what a few decent director buys could do if they go in for 100k plus shares. Still p!ssed off with CEO and CFO for doing nothing after the sp being shattered by their actions. At least the clowns in Vistry got sacked and directors made big buys. Here they have done nothing, which is not good enough on their part imo. Daily and weekly close above 88p and the big gap comes next.

Kestrel have got another 2m shares in my book for them to have the requisite 30% ownership when the BB is completed and shares cancelled. They've got another few weeks to keep accumulating under £1 if they intend to make a move next year. AIMHO GLA

This getting pretty crazy. Another circa 0.25% of the company purchased over the last two days by Kestrel and BBs. Clearly a fund is selling, but surely we should have found out by now...? One would hope that mgt have enquired with major shareholders to understand if one is selling down to try and manage an orderly exit i.e. one that supports the sp...? I doubt this is PIs.

At this rate Kestrel will be past 30% once the BB is completed and shares cancelled. The BB will be completed by end January if they continue with 200k per day. Next quarterly update will be end January or early February. If they cancel the shares at this point and Kestrel keep buying 200-300k per week then they will have hit their 30%. Their highest purchase price in the year prior I have found is the same as Stas' investigation - they purchased 17-19th August at 146.74p average, so let's say 147p. Interestingly they were buying for 133p just 4 weeks later. Goes to show how much of a f@ck up Shinez has been for the company. It has been in freefall ever since they made that d@g purchase. Surprised someone hasn't been sacked for that mess. How anyone can keep their job after such a f@ck up is beyond me. And still the CEO and CFO don't stick their hands in their pockets to help support the sp they have decimated with poor decision making.

Either way I'm astounded the mkt hasn't woken up to the fast approaching 30% threshold for Kestel. I'd also argue they wouldn't be buying and accelerating the road to 30% ownership if uninterested in making an offer. Completely mind boggling. The re-rate here will be quite something if CPMs have flattened and Shinez appears to be turning in Q4. If they can do this, meet or better the adjusted guidance (say $100m adj. EBITDA), and show they have paid down another decent chunk of debt (at least $10m), then I expect the 119 gap to close. Even with falling CPMs the OM business is still highly profitable and impressions are growing at double digits. CPMs will start to flatten at some point, and even if they don't the company will still be throwing off significant cash. If one estimates that adj. EBITDA will remain at or above $100m over the next 2 years, then debt will be largely extinguished, and EV:EBITDA at current sp will be sitting at less than 2.5. If BBs continue at the same rate (at £1 or less) they will also have accumulated close to another 20% of the company share issue. So EPS will be through the roof. Hard to see how the sp doesn't appreciate by over 50% during this time with Adj Ebitda remaining flat. Just need the id!ot(s) responsible for the Shinez mess to not make any other f@ck ups and just stick to growing cash from the existing business. Will add more here pre results to bring down my average if we remain below £1. Market will either wake-up or Kestrel will eat us up. Either way there's a decent profit to be had. AIMHO GLA

I'm not going to get excited until we've closed above 87p. From there I can start feeling more confident about that big gap being filled. The sp here is mind boggling, but I suppose that's how some folks get lucky - they find a greta company that is being smashed by a fund. I've made good money from this in the past. Sucks to be stuck whilst others have cash spare to pile in.

Dartron, I hope you took your money off the table with Spire today. Recent company statement has poured cold water over any t/o. I think the key thing to look at with SPI is the sp since the current CEO joined and ExCo have been appointed. It has gone backwards by close to 30% in 8 years, and that's in a windfall environment for healthcare. Cannot see how some people keep their highly paid jobs when you look at that sort of performance.

Agree Johno. They just need to pull their fingers out and start drilling those wells. I cannot see why another 4 wells in Q1 and 2 would be a problem if they single-mindedly focus resources on getting them done. By H2 next year we'll have our wall of cash.

would be good to know what fund is selling if that's what is going on here. hard to believe they haven't passed a notification threshold. almost as hard to believe as the sp not moving even with the amount that kestrel and the company have been buying the past 2 weeks. both are good things, and i'm happy to see that zeus have pulled their finger out and started buying good volumes whilst the sp is so low. an off book deal with the seller would also do the job nicely.

kestrel at this rate will hit the 30% threshold just by continuing to do what they have been doing for the next 5 months. at the end of the current bb program there will be roughly 250m shares in issue. this means kestrel need another 7.5m shares or so in order to pass 30% after the bb is completed (and shares cancelled). since the q3 results ****show (2 weeks ago) they have picked up 650k shares. if they continue at the same rate they will reach the extra 7.5m shares in 24 weeks. if they step up the bbs then one can almost bank on them taking us over. let's hope it's for what stas has mentioned around the 140p range. they can have my shares for that amount any day. this company has completely done my head in, and continues to do so.

as mentioned previously i'd like to see mgt do their jobs and address the market over the main concerns of declining cpm rates and shinez. the ceo and cfo should also buy a 6 figure amount on principle alone after they f@cked their forecasts plus misled the market on performance, and the mess they have made with the shinez acquisition. if they put their hands in their pockets in a reasonable manner it will help to shift the seller and get us back to a more reasonable valuation. they could also tell the market what they intend to do with increasing shareholder returns (bbs my preference given seller). ideally they would also communicate a plan to shift to a us only listing. the company would be valued at 3x the current level if we left this d@g of a market. aimho gla

I think the point being made is we tend to go up for a very short period of time on good news, which tends to be less good than hoped. And we go down by quite a lot on bad news, which tends to be less bad than expected. Happens on other stocks with similar sentiment levels. North hasn't helped. When combined with missteps and f@ck ups by a fat bod the overall sentiment has crashed, as has the share price. They simply need to deliver from now. No more TRIN escapades. No more drilling to see what's there. It's drill to fill time, and that should be their only focus for the next 12 months. They should be aiming to drill 2 x maximal production wells every quarter for the next 9 months. This time next year they can start looking at what else could be in the acreage. We need to maximise production and cashflow from every $m we have available. If they can do this we should be double the current sp by H2 2025 regardless of overall market sentiment toward O&G or the f@cked up UK economy. AIMHO GLA

Can someone share the note that came out recently?

I agree with the over-promising / under-delivery of the company the past couple of years being a drag on the sp. Someone not so long ago made a list of all the recent achievements and what to expect moving forward. There is certainly a lot of blue-sky 'potential', however mgt are yet to convince the mkt they fully understand the geology and can maximise production from each well they drill. There's been too many missteps and f@ck ups for a couple of wells to instantly change sentiment. Obv. North selling down has also had a big impact by killing off any runs.

I'm hoping the next set of results will remind the mkt of the potential here. Not to be -ve but there will almost certainly be a downgrade on annual targets provided previously. There's simply no way they will hit the average production figures for the year. They may also struggle to hit 2024 exit rates provided. So mgt need to do a good job of focusing on 2025's production trajectory and how they intend to maximise growth as quickly as possible, and not the fact they have missed reduced guidance. This should be accompanied by the expected commercial returns from the 2025 program so investors can at least see the hockey stick that has been spoken about for the past couple of years. With infrastructure in place they need to execute the 'drill to fill' part of their plans first, with resource upgrades / exploration coming at year end when we are generating significantly more production and cash. I suspect we are going to be down here for a while longer i.e. early-mid Q1 before we hit +40p. I note we still haven't heard anything about the 2 x Casc wells to be drilled in 2024. They simply cannot miss these timings alongside reduced guidance. That would not go down well. And they need to trim the useless fat from the mgt team and bod. All hopefully achievable and by the end of Q2 we should be sitting a lot closer to 60p versus 30p if they can get away another 2 x wells in Q1. AIMHO GLA

Dartron, can you please paste the article here.

StriaghtAim, that's a load of b@llocks. Their job is to create shareholder value, and part of that job is doing PR and interviews. It is especially important when they have 1. missed guidance provided twice just 14 and 11 weeks ago, 2. bought a 'pup' in Shinez, 3. seen immense shareholder destruction with over 60% drop since 200p highs less than 6 months ago.

The share price is in freefall. Their job is to do the opposite. By reminding the market of the investment proposition here, their confidence in hitting revised guidance, their plans for growth and shareholder returns, and how they intend to fix their Shinez f@ck up, it will help to stop the rot, or at least see a bigger inflow of funds versus what is being taken out of the company. And their job is also to work out who is selling and if necessary do an off market purchase of their holding. This is common practise amongst well run companies and basic investor relations mgt. Mgt need to defend the company and some of the !diotic decisions they have made, and not hide in a hole somewhere hoping for everything to pass. Both incompetent and spineless doing nothing.