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Any thoughts on Friday's drop? Also, does anyone know what the size of the early trades in the 80's on Friday between 8-9am? If the trades are small then its total manipulation as there's no reason to be selling at that level unless it is being forced.

Given the way HE1 has been valued in the past, and the fact this is now financed with a share price in Canada at +50% here, it seems like a no brainer. Expecting to 2-3x my money in the success case in a few weeks.

Those 3 x 50k block buys was me fellas.

malcy is, and always has been, full of **** (and pies). i honestly don't know how anyone can take the guy seriously given how often he is wrong, and how wildly inaccurate he has been with sp predictions. having said that, it's hard to see the sp going down any further unless we have dilution (apparently not going to happen), or something major goes wrong from an infrastructure standpoint. if there's any dilution pb and his fat bod of f@ck ups need to be walked off a plank. that would be absolutely unforgivable. with the debt being agreed this should jump a bit. but the real gains will be when they can demonstrate they have any kind of clue about the geology. so far they haven't demonstrated it with results, which is all that matters.

great entry price. but the fact no-one is buying at 22p points to how little confidence the market has in pbs and malcy's words. aligator's post sadly shows the reality of what has happened here over the past 5 years. let's hope 2025 is a turning point. gla

Quite a sizeable way to go then. They could BB 100k a day for 3 months. Amazed this hasn't popped yet. Just need them to achieve (ideally exceed) revised guidance and we should be able to close the £1.20 gap.

Thanks for this Dartron, appreciate you keeping track. Do you know roughly how many remaining shares they can buy back? Nice to see a slow climb.

so we can expect march then, allowing for pb and bod's bull**** factor.

Can someone remind me when they expect to close the debt funding?

BBs clearly designed not to promote the sp. Looks like any value gains will need to come from PIs or funds. Couple more pennies would be good all the same.

I'd be very disappointed if we hit $97m revised guidance and didn't see an improvement in the sp. Even though it would show that growth has slowed, it will still be modest growth. I think some good / positive news on the Shinez shambles and/or CPMs and this could re-rate quite rapidly. Especially if supported by a +ve outlook for 2025.

BBs will eventually take hold as well. By the time the month is over the company and insiders will have picked up circa 2.5% of issued shares, and theres still quite a way to go. The tide will turn at some point. It may have even found anchor today. Would be great for us to move above £1 in the next couple of weeks. We deserve some respite and cheer for the New Year. GLA

Question from me is who the hell is selling at this price when you have BBs averaging around 150k per day? I can;t imagine it will take a lot of volume for this to slingshot upwards if we get some good news in 6 weeks. Can only wait and hope I suppose. Would be nice to get a bump over £1 before news end-January. GLA

Bravo, thanks for the response and well reasoned pov. All makes sense. And if we haven't seen anything from Kestrel until Xmas then I'd agree they have been buying as an opportunity and less likely to be looking at a t/o. I wonder whether they are doing the same thing to support the sp and avoid investors pulling funds...? Either way they are within a whisker of 30%, and 'insiders' the same for the 50.1% majority ownership when the BB finishes. Continued BBs in 2025 will naturally get them over the line so will be interesting to see what happens if/when they cross these thresholds. One would think the current valuation represents a worst case scenario given the numbers being thrown off by the business (providing they hit revised guidance).

Agree Stas with your last post. A bod not concerned by the sp is a bod not doing their jobs, especially if they have a long track record of utilising loans or doing capital raises for acquisitions, like TIG.

Good to see BBs jumped yesterday. It does appear Zeus are not interested in promoting the sp, but at a glance they at least appear to be trying to support it. Providing they keep averaging 150k per day until we regain £1 I can stomach this approach. One would hope all the bad news has been factored in and then some because mgt have very little runway left to disappoint the mkt. Mgt have created significant sp destruction with missed guidance after leading the mkt to believe merely weeks before the fateful rns that 'all was on track'. Combined with continued declines in CPMs (out of their control), plus a seemingly very poor (and expensive) acquisition in Shinez, they really need to deliver from now. We could end up back at 78-80p if they miss their numbers again with continued underperformance in the OM and Shinez segments. Having said that if they have sandbagged the latest guidance and deliver $100m Adj EBITDA with signs of a turnaround in Shinez and at least a slowing in CPM declines, then we could be in for a 30% re-rate in quick order. SP incredibly reliant on the next update as the range could be 50%. Macro obviously not helping, but the numbers will speak for themselves.

Volume at unusually low levels today. If BB are being used to control the sp at this level it will be evident from days like today (and quite disappointing). AIMHO GLA

what are people referring to on fixed gas price contract - is there something new that has been shared wrt this?

ss fine with you pointing out my struggles with tig. worth mentioning they too guided the market twice (6 weeks and 9 weeks) on 'at least hitting mkt expectations' before dropping a pile of **** rns. i make investments based on what ceos tell the market. if this was meant to be a pure speccy then i'd take my medicine. but pb has been talking b@llocks on production, timings, and funds. he has either misled the market this year, or has no f'ing idea about the business he runs. it is unacceptable for a sp that is already on its knees to continually be going backwards when we have so much potential. and a lot of this is down to pb and his fat bod not doing their jobs adequately, and misleading the market to the point they see him as pinocchio. lenigas a poor comparator. but dan betts of hummingbird certainly fits the bill as being like pb if he continues to make statements to the market that turn out to be far from accurate. he has lost me a considerable amount of money due to these actions. so yeah i'm rightly p!ssed off with him and his fat amateur bod who come across as desperately trying to stay in a cushy job.

as for this deal, there is no way anyone can remotely value it until pricing contracts, costs, royalties, decomm costs, and decline rates are factored. many here are assuming pb has played a blinder. whereas the sp reflects his inability to do this in the past. they also assume no dilution. aim ceo's always say things before a raise to bump the sp before saying the bank would only loan xx% of the required capital. to be honest a degree of dilution would make everyone feel better about the debt profile here given pb and fat bod's ability to deliver on the assets we have.

i'm sitting for now as i don't need the money immediately and wish to crystallize any further losses, but pb is one mistruth away from me shirtfronting him at the next agm. sp reflects the deal having lots of ? and pb with his fat bod have even more. f@ckers need to deliver before i turn +ve again on this share.

Any chartists here? At a cursory glance it looks like if this level falls there's not a lot of resistance all the way down to the low 1300's. Would be great to get a view. Seems like crazy value on offer.

sirmark, i still hold 165k shares. i sold 550k around 23.5p average after the pile of **** rns dropped by pb the other day. see my last post to get my view on where things currently stand. reality is we need to take pbs word for this deal being a good one as we have no idea about the key details. his word is worth slightly more than dan betts at hum to me after this last failure to deliver. this deal will mean the company is on a tightrope given debt will be substantial end 2025 (my estimate is $45-50m) for a 9kboepd producer. the joker in the pack is to get better pricing from for casc gas. i personally don't see them doing this. and we can talk about central drilling instead, but we have no idea what's there, and it will prove up f'all extra in reserves. a central well producing 1/4 of the amount of a casc well at double the pricing (maybe) doesn't equal a great return. casc still wins. so too many questions of an untrustworthy bod before i turn +ve here. will continue to hold but sharing my honest thoughts on where things stand. unlikely to go lower from here at least. so great for new entrants.

we have zero understanding of the deal and potential value other than shell has spent a good amount of money on infrastructure that isn't being utilised. that in itself begs a question. we also have no idea about gas pricing or decomm costs, which are critical question to answer in any valuation. and we have no real idea about the potential of the acreage because shell hasn't done anything on it for years. finally we have to trust a ceo and fat bod who have proven themselves to either be full of **** or incompetent given the continued missed guidance on production, timelines, and financials. so until a loan for the full amount of the purchase is signed i wouldn't believe this is going to happen. the local bank would quite rightly point to mgt still having no idea about how to manage and monetise what they have in casc. the loan if provided alongside the casc requirements will mean a debt requirement of an extra $30m minimum with an exit rate above $45m. and that's if all casc wells planned are drilled on time and budget, plus deliver against forecasts. this is something pb and the fat bod have never achieved. you also need to keep in mind that in 2026 they will need to keep drilling to standstill @ 9kboepd i.e. at least 3 x new casc wells every year. that doesn't leave a lot leftover for central, rio, loan repayments, or the fat bod's paycheques. lots of 'if's' and 'maybe's' for a team that has a history of f@cking things up to deliver. first step is securing another $30m loan. that's a lot for this team of blowhards so don't be surprised if they're tasked with coming up with $10m in cash and their recent words were bull**** to boost the sp to get away a raise. if i were the lender i'd insist on them doing it given their track record of failures and disappointments.

also wouldn't describe this as 'pulling a rabbit out of a hat'. if everything goes through and the financials stack up i.e. great gas pricing and little to no decomm costs, then it's a good deal. otherwise it's a 'sleight of hand' job by pb and his fat bod to take pressure of casc delivery.

i should have sold at 24.5p the other day and trusted my gut. now i need to trust pbs words, which is a huge undertaking. if he has misled the mkt again then he goes into the trash heap of aim ceo's like lenigas, dan betts and george roach. good luck to us all.

About the only forgiveable reason for mgt not buying to support the share price is they are negotiating a t/o or asset disposal. The share price should be a source of shame for the CEO and CFO.

Interesting we haven't seen any more Kestrel purchases appear. Not sure why they would have done this and stopped just short of 30% and total insider ownership of 50%...?

Hi Dartron, I also think they should pay down debt as fast as possible. But whilst the sp is at 4 year lows I think they should buyback as many shares as possible. They can then pullback on the BB rate and refocus on debt payments once the sp gets to semi reasonable level. It's just a matter of timing. Alternatively mgt can buy some shares themselves. A good 100k from the CEO and CFO (f'all compared to their salaries) and the sp would jump by 10% in a few days. But for whatever reason they don't want to do this - welcome posters thoughts as to why.

Hey Tornado, so what's the reasoning behind the drop? I've seen their AISC guidance is way out, which is very poor. Production being at the low end of guidance is average to poor (still in guidance though). Ultimately it's about the £££ and their financial metrics look good and should continue to improve, especially when the poor hedging has less impact from January. Reserves are growing. So what am I missing? Is there legal or country risk to consider? Or is it just a big reaction to them missing AISC guidance and low end production?

Great post Dartron and appreciate the workings however I still believe they have plenty of runway to keep buying at a higher rate than now. Imo they should be aiming to get away £2m in December and looking at a similar amount for January, especially if they are going to hit or exceed guidance where the sp will jump on its own accord. It will require some smoothing, and they can draw down on debt if required (unless the business has fallen off a cliff). If mgt know they will hit or exceed their numbers and feel confident for 2025 then use cash and debt if necessary to fund a BB whilst the sp is near 2020 levels. Once the sp closes the £1.20 gap then ease back. But to not take advantage of the mess they have created (plus support the sp) would be a missed opportunity. AIMHO GLA