Member Info for G_G_G

I'd caution expecting good news from PB and his fat bod. When was the last time they surprised the market with production figures...? WRT 'drill to fill', they have looked like a bunch of clowns. Promising much, but delivering little. I do however agree that it's hard to see more downside from here unless they've completely f@cked Casc 4 and decline rates are continuing unabated. I don't see Central as an amazing asset as we don't have the funds to monetise it, or Casc at the moment. Not much point have great infrastructure and gas pricing if you can't step change production. Until they get their heads around Casc and delivering the hockey stick production profile I can't see us breaking 40p. No doubt a few spikes in the coming 24 months, but any sort of 2 or 3x requires a lot more than PB's words. AIMHO GLA

Surely all shares are accounted for in various RNS'...? There's some warrants from the UK fund raise here. Otherwise I'm unsure where the rest of them are coming from. Could be a major holder needing cash after the raise. Certainly strange when you see 6 figure trades the past couple of days and the sp not jumping all over the place. Massive news coming in the next 12 weeks. Could drop by 25% or triple. Odds in favour of making money given what they have found to date. GLA

Agree fellas, and yet the impact on the sp...? I read that some funds appear to be selling down - is there belief this is the source of loose shares being sold into the market at the moment? The crazy thing is if the deal is voted down they'll likely continue the BBs and at current sp will be able to pick up another 7.5% of issued shares in the coming 12 months.

If the deal falls over I'd like to see them drop the dividend and allocate the funds to BBs. The overall sp reaction I think will be far more +ve on the increased BBs v dropping a negligible dividend. They'd be able to pick up +10% of shares in issue per annum, which is huge for a company of this size with majority ownership being in tight hands. Easy for them to force the sp higher given financials are sound (albeit weakening slightly). GLA

Can see it moving back up to 28p range but for us to get back into the 30's it will require either flow rates or the debt funding being agreed. Both are end of next month so plenty of time to top up for the brave. Anything below 24p is good value imo and likely to provide 25% returns quite easily. Sitting on 225k. Will add if we stay down here for a bit longer. GLA

agree lukee. i felt the last update was quite positive toward a t/o offer progressing. given we're now sitting on an ev:ebitda of roughly 4, i cannot see much downside to owning here. yes we have had a decline in revenue and ebitda, but i expect this to stabilize and improve. the om side of the business cannot drop forever and the op will likely keep on growing. there's also the shinez ****show that surely will result in some type of legal redress, otherwise they have spent a huge amount of money on a loss making business. even the biggest senior mgt f@ck ups find that hard to do. i've got some money tied up elsewhere for now but will look to add more at this level if we're still here at the end of the month. gla

First tranche is only for USD$2m as well. So very little dilution. The second tranche is significantly more at USD$5.5m, but this hasn't closed as yet. I assume it will be on the same terms as the first tranche, meaning lock-in period will expire sometime in July / August. We get initial well results mid next month so expect the sp will re-rate accordingly and the second tranche should close shortly afterwards if it hasn't already. GLA

One thing's for sure, if the offer falls over mgt will need to front up and detail the reasons why. They have a fiduciary duty to ALL shareholders, and not just Kestrel. Interesting times.

Not sure I'm following anything that is being said here.

I agree the sp does suggest the bid is going to fail. Why is beyond me. Even with the lacklustre results recently the company is still generating record operating cashflow. They of course need to fix the f@ck up that is Shinez. A total clusterf@ck of a purchase where at least one head should roll, regardless of legal outcomes. But they are still throwing off a tonne of cash and the current numbers I believe cannot get much worse.

The company is currently on a EV:EBITDA multiple of roughly 4. The offer is for a multiple of 5. With these multiples it would be bizarre if the 125p offer didn't go through. Only reason for it to fail would be Kestrel or other major shareholders wishing to exit are asking for more with the cash element. This could be the case if they are not being given the option to roll-over the entire value of their holdings. Alternatively they can simply roll-over their ownership into the new entity and reap the benefits of not being listed, doing BBs, or paying dividends. We don't know the fine print of the 'roll-over', and whether there's a limit. If so the cash element becomes far more important.

My confidence in the deal going ahead is starting to wane. Having said that I'm struggling to see why we'd still be arm wrestling over details if it was going to fall over. Volume being traded also doesn't suggest it's a dead deal. For these reasons I'm still in the camp of the offer being formalised in the coming weeks. AIMHO GLA

crl, my average is £1.14 and i hold 625k shares here. so down the best part of £100k on my original investment. i'm just hoping to get dragged along in the shark wake and cash out with a small profit and some 'that was close' learnings.

interesting how £100k worth of trades in the final 30 mins dropped us to under £1. so much dodgy **** on aim. and any company that has vultures on their major shareholder registrar are likely to be dodgier than most.

dartron has summed up why i think the 125p will go through. it's a joke valuation, and the major holders can choose to cash out or hold onto their ownership % in the new private entity that will have no need for bbs, dividends, or any listing costs. if they roll-over (likely), they can own a company that can save $35m from these elements alone, pay down debt, and then re-list in the us or sell parts of the business off and make 50-100% profit in less than 2 years. if they don't take the deal the sp will eventually climb back to 125p as the bbs continue and debt is paid down. this makes it harder for them to take control for such a low value, and juice it up as a private entity that can be flipped or broken up. that's of course relying on mgt not doing anything unbelievably !diotic like buying another shinez. the company would be valued at 125p minimum if they didn't buy a complete piece of **** for over $30m. we'd have $60m debt and still be making the same amount of money. how someone wasn;t sacked for this clusterf@ck is beyond me. anyway, we'll find out on monday if today's late sell-off was manipulation or a leak. we're getting back down to silly valuations without any offer so risk v reward is looking quite good even with the dodgy pr!cks in and around the company. have a great w/e all.

sorry i just realised we're back to 100p, which is quite concerning. if there's a leak it's worth an fca notification at the very least. this has happened too many times and is absolutely disgusting. having said that the volume at 300k is very low, so doesn't have the hallmarks of someone getting out. feels more like manipulation. current 125p offer is on ev:ebitda ratio of roughly 5x, and same metric is almost 4 at current sp, both of which are absolutely bonkers. seriously cannot get my head around what's going on here. surely if the offer wasn't going ahead it would have fallen over earlier than now...? and who the hell is selling...? pis are ******s but surely they're not selling at the moment... cannot be any sort of decent holder otherwise they would have gone through a notification threshold by now... bizarre sp action.

crl, i'm with you on not trusting tig and only see us benefitting from whatever the pe funds want to do with the company. if the offer falls over then we're looking at 90-100p. truly ridiculous by any financial metric. i do wonder whether the recent trading update was dropped to make investors feel as though the offer is a good one and we all feel relieved with 125p. this company has a real stink about it now. pe funds are absolute pr!cks and whatever happens will only be in their best interests. we're just passengers. it's because they're such dogs that i won't be part of the new entity, because there would be even less checks and balances with these guys. probably a bad move as common sense says it's smarter to align yourself with them because it'd an absolute steal at 125p. deal still needs to get done though and something is holding the mkt back from believing it's going ahead. let's see what happens on monday. gla

Quite unbelievable there is an offer that will likely be made at 22% higher than now, and yet we still struggle to find buyers. I've got some money in other stocks that I'll likely shift here if we continue to sit at this level. Straight up bonkers as I think the deal is as good as done.

Reason I don't think we'll get +125p is Kestrel will simply roll their ownership into the new entity. They'll then milk the cash cow. Other major funds will likely do the same. The only reason why I think this is going through is because the major shareholders won't cash out and will simply roll-over. If the roll-over wasn;t available the chances of this offer going thoruhg would be nil. And I imagine the finer details being worked on are to ensure the major holders retain their ownership or even improve their stake in the new entity. We PIs will simply get dragged along for the 125p cash out i.e. if your average is above 125p you get f@cked.

Bit of a risk but thinking of putting a lot more into here, effectively being 'all-in'. There's 20% upside versus a maximum of 10% downside imo. And the downside will be shortlived as the fundamentals and BBs will eventually win the game in the coming months / years. Mgt obviously on board with 125p and no doubt looking forward to not having to report to the city every quarter. The perks and payments being offered to them would also be quite generous I'm sure. AIMHO GLA

Issue is no-one is watching here. We're a relatively under-the-radar stock, which is why the sp moves easily with PI buying. Most I think are sitting on the sidelines. To my mind it's hard to see the deal falling over given how much work has already been done, and just the finer details being worked on. The results were disappointing. Search is a big drag that needs to be addressed. Shinez is their greatest f@ck up though. Without that mess we would have $60m debt and still be making the same amount of money. The sp would be at least 20% higher and the offer would be at least 150p. Mgt completely f@cked up on this one. The legal matters will hopefully claw back some of the deal cost. Absolute shambles for which someone should lose their job. I expect the 125p formal offer will land this month. Rest of business looks very solid so if the deal falls over I don't expect much of a drop, if any at all.

issue stas is the joke bod have said so many things in the past then dumped a pile of stinking **** on the market. they often do it late as well. so hardly surprising that pis are selling out on a non-existent production update. i imagine most think we've got another disappointing set of numbers about to land. i'm in that boat as well. will be pleasantly surprised if we get a decent update, but the word 'surprised' is the point. pb and his fat bod of clowns need to pull heir fingers out.

fwiw i think getting pis together to force some point in the next agm is a good idea. could easily get +10% of shares in issue to have some of the fat useless bod trimmed for their inability to execute plans. i'd have been sacked years ago if my delivery versus targets was this poor.

Shame we're one of the worst performers in this bucket list. The moment Malcy stops believing in the story is when TXP goes bust. Can't say all of his reasons are that compelling to be honest. It's all about 'potential' with zero evidence of execution. PB and his fat bod look like headless chickens at the moment.

I think the sp was starting to recover toward the expected bid -5% range when there was confidence the deal would be formalised. Then a bit of nervousness crept in end of last week alongside the wider market being tangoed by Trump. I think the BBs and PIs will push this back toward 115-120p in the next 3 weeks. The deal falling over would be highly unusual given they have had plenty of time for DD and are working on the finer details of the deal (as per RNS). Not sure we're going to get more than 125p, but feel quite confident that we'll have a formal offer land in the coming 4 weeks. AIMHO GLA

Market waking up. Still appears to be a pretty safe 17% on offer. SP should be back to £1.15-1.20 given recent news.

Jesus this company is a head scratcher. PLSR is so under the radar they could announce something that dwarfs laughing stocks like He1 and still be in the 20's. More work needs to be done to get the company in front of PIs. Great interview btw.

Unbelievably pathetic director share purchases. Why even bother. This token level of buying can do more harm than good. If they had confidence they should be buying +50k each as a minimum, especially given how fat the bod happens to be. These guys are f@cking jokes.

As for production, my fear is it hasn't been released because there's nothing good to report. If production continues to be poor from Casc then Central is literally a sleight of hand job where they're trying to make up for Casc failings by shifting focus to something else. We'll find out in the next production update if they're a bunch of shifty shysters. SP in 22's now and 5% off 5-year lows.

yhal clearly bought back in given the change in tone recently. completely full of ****.

i feel confident the deal is going ahead based on the fact they have had plenty of time to look into the numbers and obviously enough conversations to be moving into the detail. my guess is they're still banging out some of the finer elements before it is made public in a few weeks. when the offer is finalised it will be final and accepted though. so somewhat binary bet on +20% gain from here.