Member Info for G_G_G

Couldn't agree more with those words Stas. The amount of promises but lack of delivery over a number of years here is astounding. Great that we now have capacity, but where the f@ck is the production...? With these guys it's one step forward, two steps back. I could forgive the other way around, as at least the sp trajectory would be stepping up rather than down. I would argue that today has to be the lows providing they haven't completely f@cked the last Casc well. Even if it comes online at the same level as the last ones we should have some sp appreciation. This happening should also guarantee Central going ahead as our banking partner would have more confidence these clowns aren't going to screw everything up. If we get a couple of decent Casc wells and Central over the line then we should be back to the mid 30's. Anything above this level I think is going to require a few more good wells and evidence the company has finally turned the corner. The level of distrust with this bod is quite extreme and will require more evidence than in the past for us to really move. Provides a couple more entry point at a higher level for new entrants though. Definitely potential for a double your money this year scenario if they can get things mostly right. GLA

I'd certainly hope they are going to be buying more given the volume that changed hands a few days ago. I wonder if they're stalling on announcing the deal falling over so they can claim deniability on insider trading (if it turns out to be the case)...? If this deal falls over there is going to be a hell of a lot of explaining to do by the bod and exec committee. There will also be the risk of an FCA investigation if enough of us lodge complaints. Let's keep in mind this is the second time an obvious 'leak' would have occurred. I also cannot see how exec members should be able to keep their jobs if the sp crashes back into the 90's (or worse), Shinez is still a f@cking disaster, and impressions continue to decline alongside revenue from the core marketing arm. There is no way a more junior member of any organisation would survive if they f@cked up the big parts of their job to this extent. The same should extend to exec members. Only a few more days to go now.

WHAT A JOKE

One almost has to assume the deal is dead now. The fact we're back to pre-offer levels is crazy. If the deal is done then mgt need to get on with their f@cking jobs and fix the mess they have made with Shinez. Stop wasting time w@nking about with an offer that isn't going to be made. They have completely dropped the ball on the core business and someone should be sacked for the Shinez f@ck up. The only saving grace will be if they can legally recoup a large amount of the money paid for a loss making business. Just stating 'loss making business' makes my head spin.

Time to call the deal dead and stop letting slimey insiders to exit whilst the rest of the market is left wondering what the hell is going on. Announce Q4 and full year results, provide guidance for 2025, alongside proposed BB and dividends. We're yet to be paid a dividend due to the take-over dragging on. It won't make up for the deal being dead, but at least it will be another 1% in cash. So incredibly disappointed with the goings on here, especially if insiders are selling down whilst mgt drag out the t/o process.

Bottom line is there was more sells than buys today, and we got f@cked in a short time frame at the close. Suggests inside trading on the deal being off and we're going to get an announcement next week. If there's a couple more days of this and the sp drops back to the 80's before we get an announcement then I strongly suggest everyone writes a letter to the FCA. This sort of thing needs to be investigated and someone should be put against a wall for it. The Q3 results last year were a disgusting example of inside trading.

As for the deal being pulled, I think mgt will have a lot of explaining to do if the sp drops to the 80's and they have pushed back on 125p. Their fiduciary responsibilities are to ALL shareholders, and not just Kestrel. The only way they can torpedo this deal is with a better one. Sadly the sp action today doesn't point in that direction. Hopefully it's just a fund pushed into a forced sale and nothing more. One thing's for sure, if this deal goes through I'm not investing more than 10% of my p/f in AIM. The market is dying, and it's dodgy as hell. Not worth it except for a punt where lemming money can get you a multi-bag. Let's hope it was nothing and we jump back next week. GLA

wtf? jesus i hate greasy city c@nts. who knows what these f@cks are up to, whether it be gs, kestrel, or the mgt team. for all we know they're trying to spook investors with this ****ty little position. or they know something and this is the start of them increasing the short. puma of course is betting the other way. who knows wtf is going on here. we've got 2 weeks until a deal is agreed or mgt have a lot of explaining to do.

This company is bloody annoying to own, which isn't helped by the feeling our mgt team and major shareholder are a bunch of sharks. Fwiw I think it will be very difficult for mgt and Kestrel to kibosh this deal if they're not offering a better alternative. It wouldn't be acting in shareholders best interest to kill something that is at a 25% premium to the current share price, and 35% to pre-offer levels. They have had ample time for DD and I feel the deal would have fallen over by now if it was dead in the water. Having said that we had Puma taking a couple of %, BBs continuing at about 100k per day, and we're still near 100p and dropping back toward the 90's. Mind boggling stuff. Would love the deal to go through and to get the f@ck out of this company with my shirt still on. GLA

IWTO I'm of a similar view but can't bring myself to double down here. It seems crazy they haven't pulled the offer given the amount of time they have had for DD. Kestrel or a couple of other major holders may be the fly in the ointment, but I only see this as an issue if one or more of them want out. If that's the case they will be asking for a better deal, which would be good for us if it goes through. Either way Kestrel and one other major holder agreeing to 125p or better and this is a done deal. No PI will be voting against it, that's for sure. AIMHO GLA

Anyone care to share what they think is going on here and who the f@ck is selling at this price? Funds? Surely a holdings rns is due given the consistent selling of hundreds of thousands of shares the past few weeks. Company is picking up 100k shares per day, which is around 1/3rd of volume being traded, and we're dropping. F@cking ridiculous. I'll lose my mind if this deal is f@cked up by our mgt team and Kestrel and they don't have an alternative plan.

Certainly a head scratcher. The sp is at a level that suggests the offer is going to lapse or be pulled. And yet the only announcement that we've received talked about negotiations being on-going about specifics of the offer. Surely they would have backed out by now if the deal was going to fail. And I imagine that Kestrel would be quite happy ot take their current ownership stake (circa 30%) in a company that will instantly be able to reduce debt from no dividends and BBs, alongside restructuring to then re-list in the US or break up the parts to sell to bigger entities. I can't see how the deal falling over works in favour of any major holders if they wish to roll over their ownership. Anyway, that's my two cents. Hopefully confirmation of 125p or better in the next 2 weeks. GLA

Ok so you are talking about the 4.5m warrants. Refer to my last post about this being a small amount, and I'd also argue they're not all being dumped. If the are being dumped they will have been suppressing the LSE share price, but that would require all of them being sold for 10% profit. No big deal and likely to clear v.soon.

Pubesz, you keep referring to the rns on 18/10/24 - can you please confirm the number of warrants? From what I'm reading it's 4.5m, which isn't a lot of shares. It's also assuming these shares are all being sold down. And they've been getting sold for a maximum 10% profit. Seems unlikely to me these warrants are the source of the millions of shares being traded, but would almost certainly be on fumes if they are dumping them. Happy to be pointed to 'other' warrants if there's many more. Buliders Bum is correct in 'founders shares' needing an rns if they are directors, but these aren't mentioned in any LSE rns and would be getting traded on the TSX and not here if indeed they are being dumped.

current sp is bonkers even without the offer. if the bid is about to be pulled or rejected then mgt should just get on with announcing it rather than this death by a thousand cuts horse**** we're having to endure.

Appears to be the lowest volume day in the past 3 months. If seller has finished then some modest buying pressure will give this a 10% boost very easily.

agree with your last posts stas and johno. all about execution now, which they haven't managed to achieve to date. if they start getting their **** together i see this as a 2x by year end. if they can renegotiate ortoire pricing in this time then 3x. that's the real kicker imo.

Good to see them buying back at +100k per day. At this rate there will be another 1% of shares taken off the market by the extended deadline date. I'm guessing the extension helps with the purchase amount so in their interest to delay by a month i.e. £3m less they need to front up for the cash element. Given a lot of ownership will be rolled over they could end up paying as little as £100-125m for 30-40% of the company.

Agree with points on sp appreciation when debt facility is finalised. With some decent Casc production numbers this should get us back into the 30's. I'm also aware of the Central decline rates being low, btu as you say all wells decline. And if it takes 2-3 years to repay the debt and interest, then you're also looking at another well just to say even or slightly ahead. This is another $5m. So imo you will get very little incremental production from Central until Casc hockey stick actually happens. And then they will need to decide where to drill - Central for lower volumes and higher prices, or Casc being the opposite.

As I said earlier, you have optionality, acreage synergy for exploration, and potential resource upside. So nothing major imo to add to production / NOI in the near term. One big driver is Casc execution. And the biggest potential sp re-rate will come from Casc pricing re-negotiation. This will make the sp fly instantly as they can then ramp production at a much faster rate.

Either way I agree the future looks to be more up than down. But to call Central an amazing deal is an overstatement imo. And they still haven't demonstrated they can execute a drill to fill plan for Casc. Once they do this the sp will move quite quickly. GLA

Johno, I'm aware of the long promised hockey stick. I'm simply reminding everyone we were meant to be in that phase already. PB and the fat bod have not monetised the assets as yet, and until they can back up their words it's best to assume the worst with these guys and hope for the best.

As for Casc helping to develop Central, on that one I disagree. Casc will need to have more wells put into it just to offset decline rates. The key is they're generating more gas than decline rates. As for Central, the $1m a month hasn't been confirmed as yet. And we need to pay down the debt. Just to pay down the +$20m in costs plus interest it will take more than 2 years. You also have maintenance. And you'll have declines in this time. Not to mention decomm costs that we don't know yet. So it will take a long time before this is generating cash flow to grow. It will pay for itself over a 3 year period and that's it imo. The upsides are optionality (pressure on TRIN to adjust Casc pricing), and potential resource upgrades. The infrastructure means f'all if you can't maximise its potential.

I've been calling the hockey stick for a while and still have enough confidence it will happen to hold more than 200k shares here. But my degree of confidence is much lower given the long history of mgt failings wrt production. They've no doubt got the assets, but as yet I have seen little evidence they can maximise their potential. I do hope I'm wrong. As I've said I'm more of a buyer down here and see little downside from the current sp. It is absolutely pitiful and mgt should be ashamed of themselves, but it does provide a relatively safe 25% upside from here imo.

TIG is March 04th before we hear more. If the t/o goes through I can / will shift some money back here. If not I'll be locked and will hope my shares here appreciate whilst I await a TIG recovery. Little downside over there as well imo (albeit from a dismal current valuation). GLA

Yes I know about the share count and outstanding warrants, but find it difficult to see why anyone from the UK raise would be selling shares at 26p when they picked them up for 25p, which goes for the UK warrants as well. Maybe they need the money, but hardly makes sense. And the offloading has been substantial, as can be seen in some significant trades the past few days.

Where in the 18.10 RNS does it state 132m shares with 50% not in public hands? I can only see a UK fundraise for 20m shares at 25p so hardly any gain to be made by selling at 26p.