RE: Can you feel it20 Mar 2025 11:34
still jam tomorrow i see. what a bunch of clowns. the production numbers they were talking about this time last year were double what they will deliver this year minus central. they were meant to drill the last 2 x casc wells in q4 2024 and q1 this year and we're still awaiting one of them to be finished. the only way q2 production won't look diabolical is if they get casc 4 flowing by the end of april. this will only offset declines so still circa 4kboepd. and then central will paper over the cracks on casc if it closes in q2.
folks also need to keep in mind the 'dog ate my homework' modus operandi of mgt here. the casc 4 well isn't even completed. and things always go wrong with these muppets. and they still appear to have no idea of what to expect. they'll drill for gas and hit oil. and then they have no idea of how to optimise flowrates. it's that ridiculous.
in order to have any chance of doubling this year (45p) they need to get casc 4 hooked up by end april and have at least 3x more casc wells drilled and flowing by year-end. this still won't get us to 7kboepd average production due to the ****show q1 and soon to be q2. they may however reach 6kboepd. and then central will provide the 'sleight of hand' that pb needs to juice the numbers and take away any attention on the fact they still haven't come to grips with casc. maybe a 2x by year end but that will requite the execution i have mentioned, and lots of pis running over here. the fact we had more posts than trades the past few days bodes well for this being on pi's radar. central should get us to +30p at least. but let's not use central as a way to disguise another **** set of results by mgt here. truly garbage as production is way below forecast, one of the 2 x casc wells that should have been completed and flowing still isn't completed let alone hooked up, casc 2&3 are disappointing, and there's not evidence that mgt have any ability to execute their promises or idea of what to expect.
as for central completing in the next couple of weeks, that's truly ridiculous. this company has snatched defeat form the jaws of victory constantly. i think it will go through, but don't be surprised if we're still posting about it in another 3 months. paperwork is being drafted. that can take a long time before being finalised and approved by all parties. in the meantime they just have enough cash to keep drilling casc, fortunately.
left field major positive re-rate this year will come from renegotiated gas pricing. i imagine this could happen year-end as the government realises they only have another 12-18 months of taking the p!ss before they could be paying twice as much. any decent step-change e.g. 50% or more and the sp will double. that's the true game changer, and not central. central is some base production with a decent chunk of debt attached. decent deal, a good 10p form here, but certainly not transformational imo.
still jam tomorrow, but at least we should be 30p when centr