Member Info for G_G_G

stas, i agree with your points on no forward selling or those taking up the raise selling below 20.5p. with regard to an 'overhang', when i'm referring to this, it's about investors selling into any rises above the 20.5p placing price. until the placing participants have sold their loose shares, the share price is going to have a big anchor that sits at 20-21p range imo. some good news will help to clear weak hands and the shares the placing participants are willing to sell for a modest 10-20% profit. but to breach 25p it's going to take at least 6 months of good execution to find a home for a lot of loose shares. execution of course isn;t the strongest suit of this f@cking useless bod. currently, they appear only to be good at talking ****e. but casc 4 / 5 success and some decent wells in central and the sp will slowly climb to 30-35p, which is about as far as it will get unless they can renegotiate gas price cap for ortoire. and that's a good 6 months away at best. folks selling now are simply doing so knowing they can come back at 20-22p over the next 3-4 months. at our current rate casc 4 probably won't even be drilled by then. i wonder what 'dog ate my homework' excuse paul roach will come up with if the central deal falls over or casc 4 / 5 are disasters. anyway, best to put these in the bottom drawer for at least 6 months. good time to average down for those who believe they can actually achieve what they've been claiming for the last few years. gla

The reason why I said in a previous post that it will be interesting to see Net Debt at year-end is because of the very issue being debated now. What exactly is being covered by the raise, and by the new loan facility, and where will that leave us assuming they reach 8-9kboepd production. We will no doubt get visibility of some numbers post Central closing, but how much we can trust them based on years of over-promises and straight up lies is another thing altogether. Either way if they hit the loose guidance provided to date there should be a re-rate. That of course depends on mgt getting Casc right. If the chasing of TRIN and Central is because PB and his fat bod have recognised there's issues with Casc and they're trying to diversify due to this, then it's not good and we will have continued disappointment. If it is indeed a masterstroke and not sleight of hand by the sneaky f@ck that is Paul Roach, then a re-rate to 30p is on the cards for December. Anyone thinking it will go higher needs to look at other major dilution events like at i3e to see how long it takes to truly clear an overhang. And i3e got far better assets for far less money, plus they had a track record of delivery by the time they made the second big dilutive acquisition. PB and his merry board of clowns are yet to deliver anything near their promises. Let's hope this year is the start of a new chapter.

Oh, and I think we could potentially drop back to 19p once they announce Q1 results, which will be a car crash, with Q2 being worse still. Central will gloss over Q2, and we just need to hope that Casc 4 is up and running by July for Q3 to be ok. Mgt team here are jokes. GLA

Toxic, I think your post highlights why 25p is realistic. They will be producing over 8-9kboepd YE2025, and throwing off a decent level of cash. The question for me is what will be the net debt position at the end of 2025 to give a better understanding of EV and associated ratios. Going beyond 25p anytime soon is unlikely imo, as many will sell into 20% gains. As this happens though, the average of weak hands and traders will rise, slowly. Looking at 2026 and a few more Casc wells before the 30's are breached imo.

PB I will now be referring to as Paul Roach. The f@cker is about as trustworthy as George with what he says. At least he has a few decent winsunder his belt, and even a muppet like hm cannot f@ck things up any further if they get Central. Hopefully a decent bump when Central closes, but not holding my breath. GLA

Good points, Stas. Discord Group should also mention this to PB in their next powwow. Clarity on everything these !diots do from now is a must. Shareholder trust and confidence cannot get much worse. PB looking more like George Roach by the day.

Aye, if only TXPs financial guidance is worth the paper it's written on. Today just reinforces that anything that PB and his f@cking useless exec team says should be taken with a pinch of salt. My advice is to put this away for a year and pray that PB and clowns can monetise Casc in some meaningful way during this time. GLA

Does anyone have the OAK note?

Been here before folks with i3e (twice). Based on experience don't be surprised to see the sp drop below 20.5p. There's a lot of loose shares that were picked up between 19-21p and some of these folks will sell rather than stay here for another year. Worth noting that with i3e the deals they got were far, far better than Central, and they still sat below placing for months. So make of that what you will. My thoughts are as follows:

- The size of placing is significant

- Mgt led the market to believe the acquisition would be debt funded. That's straight up dishonest and PB should be held to account for this.

- The size of placing means there will be an anchor on the share price for some time and it will be important to know who has picked up these shares. If f@ckers like Peel have participated then expect them to dump for 5% gains so any rise will be sold into.

- The size of placement points to our 'close' banking partners having reservations about how TXP would service the debt load. This is not good as they would have done their DD on this deal and our current performance. Says a lot about mgt and our banking partner's faith in their ability to monetise Casc.

- The placing price is surprisingly good. Considering PB is a complete f@ck up you would expect it to be in the high teens. This simply means the anchor is a bit higher, nothing more.

- Additional funding is secured, so one can expect Central to close. When? Who knows, we're talking about PB and his fat bod of f@ck ups. Will it make the sp re-rate? Unlikely imo but we could make a small step up to the mid 20's.

Capital raise imo was needed as the debt load would have been too great, and PB and his fat bod simply cannot be trusted to manage it. They are more likely to blow up Central based on past performance, than monetise it. Keep in mind the entire team has been working in TRIN for years, and they didn't have the correct drilling equipment for Casc 4. They can't even drill the hole, let alone navigate the geology!!! And it's still not drilled and hooked up!!!

Either way it's all done now. PB has proven yet again that he cannot be trusted. Having said that, TXP is now on more stable ground for the long term. It's just that we're not going to see the 30's until 2026, providing PB and his team can actually drill some holes in the right places in Casc. I'm expecting 19.5-21.5p range for a while. Anything more will require some Casc success imo. So a much safer investment for any entries in the 19-20p range, but definitely more long term payback now i.e. 1-2 years. Happy I didn't pay more than 21.5p for my most recent shares. Still 15% down on my investment though. I feel very sorry for lth's with averages in the 30's or more as they're not going to see any profit for at least 2 years imo. And that of course depends on PB and his circus clowns to get things right at Casc, which they have been unable to do to date. GLA

looks like someone took the 22.9p shares. now up to 23.6p to buy. will be interesting to see how much profit takers hold this back, or whether the herd arrives and blitzes the sellers. important for pb to get out and be a media ***** for a few weeks following.

one of the 50's this morning was me. interestingly it's down as a sell so have a feeling there's a big sell order about to pop up. also just picked up the 2 x 25ks just now. any more and the bid moved to 22.9p which is too much for me now :) that's me loaded for 600k at circa 24p average. hoping to see the 30's post central, but believe we'll move up to the high 20's and keep bouncing off 30p until we get some good news re casc. imo moving into and above the 30's will be entirely dependent on the bod not being their usual f@ck up selves and executing casc on time and forecast. something they are yet to do. lots of upside if they can get their **** together. gla

Trek, have you come across PLSR given your position in HEX? It's at an earlier stage than HEX but the He % are far greater. Thoughts? Appreciate the other tips btw. I know some people get p!ssed off about cross-ramping but I'm not such a person.

Stas, you still in PLSR?

Has anyone got the link to this Oak note? I've been looking online and cannot find a thing. Company should release it if good.

You've made some valid points Devil. I picked up a couple of trades earlier today with 2 x 25k. Now sitting on 490k @ 24.5p. Tried for some more into close, but couldn't pick up any more. No way this goes above 30p without some Casc success imo. I'd love to see it happen, as I'll take some profit. But that's the reason why I don't think it will - too many people like me and Devil who will take some cash off the table for 20% gains. There certainly is a lot of potential here. And the risk profile will be far better after Central. But the issue is mgt have been unable to execute Casc for years now, and Casc 4 is just another reminder of how they don't have a good grip on things. We're still waiting for it to be drilled and it's May!!! Having said that, a couple of good wells in a reasonable time frame i.e. not 5 months, and this will move quickly. Let's hope for some good news next week.

Wtf is going on here...? Sp is climbing (thank christ), and we've just stepped up to 62p, but now I see there has been a £250k sell pop up. That's pretty chunky for such a low volume day. Imagine it was worked over the past few days, but who is mopping up these shares...? Thinking it's a US buyer given the timing of the step up the last few days. Thoughts welcome.

Typical that I sell 25k shares earlier today at 57p and it jumps by over 5% an hour or so later. This company absolutely does my head in. Not sure if the movement is down to something happening in the b/g given the low volume. Largish trade at the end of the day though, so who knows.

Just added another 20k. Average sub 24p. Probably sit now for a while. GLA

SS, I believe in the potential here, especially when the sp is 20p. I don't have the same degree of confidence in mgt. I think they're a bunch of muppets. But even muppets will find it hard to make a bigger mess than what they have done already. I see this as the bottom, providing Central doesn't fall over, or they do a capital raise.

As for TRIN, this wasn't a bad deal. It was ok. And Central is a good deal, but not great. Majors are selling fields with far more resources and production for far less in equivalent terms. And they often pick up the decomm costs. So I don't think they have played a blinder for the cost. Having said that, it has some great synergies. And it gives them optionality when it comes to capex and agreed contractual pricing. It's only two years before this is re-negotiated or they send production along the LNG route. I think they will either get a better pricing contract locally, or they will get some sort of tax incentives in order to drill more. This will provide a re-rate far greater than what Central does initially imo.

Either way I see a good 50-100% upside in 12 months from these levels providing Central closes. Now holding 425k GLA

BTW those 2 x 25k buys are mine. They should be popping up now.

SS, I would say that TXP owes a lot to just about every holder on its roster with the exception of those with averages below 20p. I imagine the number of these holders you could count on one hand.

Aligator, what's your gut telling you on this deal? I personally think it will go through. I simply don't see how PB and the bod can survive if this falls over. They have literally f@cked up everything they have put their hands on for years now. Another TRIN debacle would be an unbelievably bad look and make mgt the main reason the company is uninvestible. Thing for me isn't the deal falling over, but where the sp ends up if / when it goes through. I do believe there will be a bounce, but also think there will be a lot of selling into this and we'll end up in the mid 20's until the mgt team can demonstrate a knowledge of Casc. Once that is established with a couple of wells then I can start to believe in mid to high 30's. But that could be another 9 months or longer give they have taken 4 months on Casc 4 and it still hasn't even been drilled. This mgt team couldn;t organise a p!ss up in a brewery, and that's why no-one is believing in the Central or Casc story until they see evidence. AIMHO GLA

Well let's hope that Kestrel and their wealthy sidekicks are looking at us. I'd bite your arm off for £1 right now. Figure that's a fair price for the company given the f@ck ups by mgt. About half of the value is DIS on decent EBITDA multiple of 8x. The other half is for Comparison and search. Overall EBITDA multiple of 5.5x. Seems about right. Upside is Search makes a decent comeback by year-end. And some cash back from the gigantic f@ck up that is Shinez. How a head hasn't rolled on that acquisition is beyond me. Anyone making an equivalent sized error on levels below ExCo and they would be fired. P!sses me off how execs get away with making these kinds of monumental mistakes. Even worse is they often go on to other senior roles when they should be shunned from the business community. Anyway, let's hope for a decent set of Q1 results and full or partial sale of the company.

So much for any explosive sp re-rate. The last rns all but confirmed the deal is going ahead, and yet we're still at 20p. SP won't get past the high 20's on deal conclusion imo. The history of broken promises and 'dog at my homework' excuses is far too long here for a major re-rate. That being said, if they get Casc 4 & 5 producing in the next 4 months many of the burned previous holders will probably return as the belief starts to build. When that happens then mid to high 30's will be back on. And before anyone says 'it's worth so much more', yes that may be the case. But the market also takes into account risk, and it's quite high here due to PB and his fat bod f@cking things up too many times. Any hint that they know what they are doing, and this will move. Not before-hand imo. Still holding 375k shares and more likely to buy than sell fwiw. GLA