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Stas I'm finding it hard to comprehend how you can be telling people to stop being so negative about TXP when there's YEARS of under-performance, and a CEO who is known for talking boll@cks for what seems like an eternity, and then you write this last post.

You have provided a timeline of what has happened to date. Yes, looks about right. But here's another way of looking at it.

1. JS1 deepened and JS2 drilled - January to end March. So far, so good.

2. 02nd April commencement of well testing.

3. 28th April discovery of the rock fines issue. So not a big lag between initial testing and discovery of issue. To note, this is a relatively common issue for air drilling, as you have mentioned in a previous post. They guided 6-10 weeks clean-up plus 2 weeks flow testing.

4. Early August for completion of clean-up and well testing program. This is 13-14 weeks. So slippage of 1-2 weeks on the maximum 10+2 weeks previously guided. Hardly a major issue if they've taken that time to determine the optimal clean-up approach and get the necessary equipment on site.

You are correct that the He concentration was astronomical from the shallower zone of JS1. Having said that, it was also very high in mud log readings for the deepened section at shows of up to 7.25%. This suggests double-digit at depth when air corrected. For JS2 they got up to 3.5% for the well in mud log readings. We don't have the air corrected He readings, but my understanding is one can expect 50-100% higher concentration. So there's nothing to say there's any problems for He continuing at depth. The measured reservoir is 1750-5100ft wide, so everything points to high He concentrations continuing down hole at a much greater depth.

Pressure readings have been provided for both JS1 deep, and JS2. They have reported the pressure readings of 122 & 151PSIG for both wells, and guided that 145PSIG at JS1 delivered 820mcf flow rate. In the recent interview Thomas answered one of my questions about whether these pressure readings indicate similar flow rates, which he confirmed. He also pointed out that he'd like to see higher flow rates given the aded depth in both wells. Look at the recent Oak coverage and they reference HE1 at 10PSIG for their recent Galactica well. So there's nothing to suggest pressure readings are an issue.

You also need to keep in mind that CO2 concentrations of up to 70% make this almost a standalone CO2 commercial operation. At 1mmcf (Thomas referenced as a useful benchmark for flow rates), you get $4.6m @ $20mcf and 330 days of production. That's similar to HEX revenues per well.

Happy to hear your doubts, but I wouldn't say a few weeks of slippage is a big deal. And I certainly wouldn't say it when you are defending 5 months of slippage at TXP, not to mention all the other issues there over the years. Thomas is confident because he believes they have found a fantastic system.

yhal, i think the biggest stone around kestrel's neck is tig at the moment. they made the same mistake as me in doubling down thinking that mgt know what they are doing. i'm absolutely dumb founded by performance here. more so that no-one in senior mgt has been fired for the shinez mess. google and search was, to be fair, somewhat out of their control. but how shinez has happened is beyond me.

kestrel are definitely in a bind. it's a stick or twist scenario for them. the twist could even involve them doubling down and taking us out for £1 (please god make them do it). they would know better than anyone the hidden value in the company (or not). the last thing we want is them selling down. that would be catastrophic.

mgt not providing any updates until september is also beyond the pale. to leave the market with the ****e update they provided a couple of months ago is mind-boggling. i simply cannot get my head around how they think this is ok, unless it's to facilitate a low-ball t/o...

Sturm, I don't disagree that Central is better than TRIN. The Central asset and funding for expansion (fingers crossed) is why I averaged down so heavily recently. But if the remaining funding falls over this week, then other than being lost for words, I'm not sure what will happen. It won't be good though. So buying now is a bet that funding will be secured. Johno / Stas, maybe not what you want to hear, but that's how I see it. It's also why it's 'hard to invest in TXP now'.

Johno, let's unpack that last message because there's so many falsehoods that it's actually quite annoying.

1. I'm not here repeating myself over and over with 'panic panic'. I've posted here half the amount of times that you have over the past month, for starters. And instead of always putting a 'positive spin' on things like you do i.e. your assertions are based on what you hope to occur rather than grounded in any past or current performance, I like to focus on what needs to be done and what they need to change, which can be boiled down to rebuilding trust through Casc execution.

2. My reasoning as to why I have averaged down so heavily has been explained previously in posts, and is because I believe the raise and CB have put a floor under the sp, unless they blow all of the raise (if we get all the funding) on Casc f@ck ups where wells cost twice the forecasted amount and don't perform as well as expected. I have been clear on this.

3. I have always positioned my assertions as my pov, not as fact. How can something that hasn't even happened be a fact. Stupid thing to say once, and pathetic to keep saying it. I mentioned back to the teens between our recent run up to 21.5p and Casc news. This usually happens in stocks that are news driven and there's an information dead zone. I also mentioned imo the sp was staying higher because of Iran / Israel, whilst you were crowing about how I was wrong. And yet now we're back in the teens because of another external driver. In the teens btw.

4. (more for Stas) I'm not trading this. If I was, I'd tell you. SM on the other hand popped up the other day to mention that he does do it. I have also said that I have no issue with any traders if they're making money. Well done to them if they are good enough to do it. But it does annoy me seeing the same L2 garbage when someone is obviously trading, in the same way as boiler crew posting annoy me.

I simply don't believe in only looking at things through rose-tinted glasses when the sp has dropped 40% in the past year and over 60% in the past 5 years. There are reasons for this. And that's because of a lack of execution and a lack of trust. If they can get 2 x Casc wells under their belt with better than average production performance then we'll re-rate, possibly back to 30p providing the new shareholders aren't in it for a quick buck. And that of course depends on us getting the funding from these new shareholders. Another unexpected negative turn of events that we need to endure, or is pointing out this reality being too negative...?

You just bought 860k shares Troajan...?

I see someone dumped almost 350k shares today. Not great to see at thsi juncture, and at that price.

Sturm, the other deal was TRIN. Roach and co didn't get the legally binding part added so the TRIN bod pulled the deal. Absolutely smashed the sp. This deal wasn't too bad but was pretty obviously going for the cash pile, and some ageing low decline assets.

What is this TW article?

I really cannot understand how they can announce the raise and then weeks later state they haven't received the cash yet. F@cking mind boggling. But then again, I thought TRIN was the same situation until we realised the deal was never legally locked down. Woops. Hopefully they get the rest of the money because the already rock bottom confidence in mgt will plumb a new depth (along with the share price).

Johno, just a friendly reminder that we hit the teens today. I expect us to move down further util we get news (hopefully good news). Hard to put more money in here when this clownshow doesn't stop.

Alos re-read my first post on a possible raise at 18p, Johno. I'm SUPPOSING that if we NEED the money, and the £10m falls over with no legal recourse, then we'll have to do another raise at an even lower price because there's no way that any investors will cough up £10m for 20.5p again. I sincerely hope the money lands on Friday, otherwise we will be back at 18p with a need for a £10m cash injection and even more questions on how things are being run. That's a very real scenario as I see it, which judging by the sp action other investors are seeing as well. If mgt had a track record of delivery the sp probably wouldn't have dropped by so much. But because it's Roach and co, everyone is now holding their breath on what f@ck is going to happen next. It's a truly astonishing situation that is completely left field.

pops up...? i never left johno. unlike sm, who doesn't bother me too much, it's just the l2 ****e that he spouts whenever the sp is rising before he takes profit and disappears. using one example doesn't change his habitual behaviour as well. if anything, it's probably a few people have been rattling his cage that made him stay away recently. or he sold for 5-10% before the sp jumped again.

as for the teens, i always positioned this as my opinion, and still do. obviously, external factors like iran have changed the outlook. but then again, we now have these funding issues. i would have preferred that finance was sorted so we could be up 5% rather than the opposite, but such is the story of investing in txp. btw, i didn't blame txp for this f@ck up. i don't know how the hell it happened, but would have thought that legally binding undertakings for the full amount would have taken place for them to log an rns stating a $20m cash raise. so if the clients don't cough up it should be oak and portillion who front the money from my pov.

and because txp say they will have the cash by june 20th don't make it so. we apparently had no reason for the cash just weeks ago and now we have $20m raised (maybe). the fact they felt the need to log another rns out of nowhere would also suggest there's a lingering doubt the money won't be forthcoming. absolutely extraordinary situation.

in the teens btw.

Also, where is SirMark with his gazillion shares? What's L2 up to today?

O&G world storming ahead and TXP dropping by 5% rather than gaining by the same amount.

As for the bookbuild - I too have never seen this before. It's astounding that and RNS has been logged confirming the successful bookbuild, and shares have been issued, but money hasn't been paid. Mind boggling stuff. Surely Portillion and OAK are on the hook for the cash...? If not, then what happens? Do mgt need to do another raise, but this time at 18p to get the other $10m? Because we clearly do need the money to do anything, unlike what Baay has intimated before. You really can't make it up with TXP. Issue with this sort of thing is it often takes the wind out of your sails, but you don't get it back again when the problem is solved (if indeed that happens).

Johno, the teens may come yet again if we're waiting until the last minute on this cash. Even Iran isn't helping us today.

Johno, in response to your post please rest assured that I'm very happy with the sp rising. I'm 5% off b/e on my 900k holding, so not a care whatsoever in 'being wrong'. But on that point, best not to ignore the movement in oil and gas prices on the back of the Israel / Iran conflict and the impact it is having on all O&G companies. We've just picked up the rush to an unloved sector imo. But as I've been saying, Casc success and this should re-rate providing our new major shareholders aren't in it for a quick 10-20%. If we have a higher base to jump from in a few weeks, even better. There's a long way to get back to the 30's, but with ME conflict and a few successful wells we should be able to get there. GLA

Unfortunately the market thinks very little of our mgt team and prospects, otherwise we wouldn't be in the low 60's and dropping.

I do believe the reason for the drop is the market didn't realise there would be no Q1 update. The run-up in sp coincided with expected reporting time-frames. It obviously looks horrible to any investors when a bunch of muppets have made +$30m acquisitions that turn out to be loss making, have understated EBITDA by a significant amount, and have then provided no real concrete guidance for this yearand decided against doing a quarterly update when we're half way through Q2. The market literally has no idea how TIG is performing against the flimsy guidance they provided when the t/o offers fell over. Absolutely shameful way to run a listed company. These !diots need to give investors some guidance that investors can make informed decisions by, and to hold on these uselss f@cks to account on. How the hell heads have not rolled for the Shinez debacle is beyond me.

Sounds good, but that isn't total net debt. Until we get guidance, it's hard to value TXP as we don't have total net debt, or forward 12 month EBITDA. We also need to get some sense of what to expect with each new well drilled, and decline rates i.e. a solid footing for 12 month guidance.

If they can execute on time and budget the upcoming wells this is definitely due a re-rate. We'll know whether there's some sharks that have been brought onto the register as a few good wells and a sp pulling back to 10-20% above the placing price means the new major holders are flipping. To be honest, I'd do it if I was the fund manager. Let's hope the update has no gremlins and they finally start executing.

Also, where has the 6 wells in 6 months come from..? I have only heard Roach say 2 x Casc and 2 x Central, unless he meant Casc 4&5 PLUS 2 x 2...?

couple of questions i'd appreciate some answers from the more learned folks. trying ot get through the april statement and it's giving me a monumental headache.

what is thgs net debt position? i've got £215m ye2024. is that correct? are people expecting this to be paid down in the next set of results, and if so by how much?

what is adj ebitda for the streamlined group expected to be in 2025? i have £92m for 2024, however it sounds as though they think it can be grown in 2025 - is this realistic? have they guided on 2025 adj ebitda?

fcf they have appeared to suggest would have been +£400k in the demerged world for 2024 - is this correct? they are also intimating it will be much higher for 2025 - is this realistic? and if so does anyone have any information on what they believe can be achieved? in the many pages in the april report it's hard to determine what they are guiding on key metrics for 2025. it appears to me as more of a 'work it out yourself' dump of information.

any help would be appreciated. investment thesis here seems to have improved but the sp is saying something else. would be good to have some sound reasoning as to why e.g. linked to numbers, and not just because mm is a ****, which we all know to be true.

Agree it's a good win. Shame the sp hasn;t reacted accordingly. Maybe it will spring to life in a couple of days when the algo's flip for the 10% counter trade. Appears we're range bound in the 60-70p area at the moment. Shame our useless mgt team isn't providing an update to help the sp (or BBs). Would be wonderful if a new bid was to land. It's the only reason I'm still holding 300k shares. I offloaded about the same amount for somewhere in the high 60's average. At least it's a win, for once. GLA

Depends on what they have Mumbo. HEX, as I understand it, have $4m annual revenue per well. If these guys hit 1mmcf @ 5% He and 70% CO2 then you have circa $14m @ $550 He, $25 CO2, and 330 days. That's a big difference in terms of revenue. It's all about potential here. Thomas has talked about JS1 being a 'top 3 most prolific He well in history'. He also intimated in the recent interview that the above numbers are what he is expecting to see (with a wry smile). If they bring in those numbers per ell then I can see a 2x very quickly here.

BB, the bod are absolute f@cking id!ots. No update after they give an EBITDA range 35% below what was expected plus an added 'but we really don't know'. They should be providing most recent guidance based on what they have seen in Q1 and Q2 to date. They should be covering their strategic direction and how it is performing to date. They should also provide a view on priorities wrt to debt v BBs, and an update on the Shinez mess they created. Unbelievable these clowns have a job, let alone running a listed company. I'm embarrassed to be a shareholder here. They should sell the company, but that of course would mean they are out of a cushy job where they have achieved nothing other than unbelievable value destruction.

Yes bid is ticking up (great), but volume is dropping. We've had some good coverage and whispers over the last 24 hours, so I believe this has supported the sp today on decent, but lower volume. The shift yesterday would also have alerted many PIs on their watchlist. But if there's a news vacuum, even for a week, then it will drop back to the 19's. If this happens, I do believe it will be the last opportunity to top up in the teens unless Roach and co make a mess of Casc. Higher lows is all I'm calling now if they can execute. Anything above 25p will need some very good news, and the new major shareholder(s) not offloading. GLA

I have us at 6 weeks since the clean-up announcement. So news could land anytime over the next 4 weeks. If they get flow rates higher than what JS1 tested initially, and +5% He then I expect a significant re-rate to occur here. Thomas seemed quite confident in the Q&A this would happen. Fingers crossed.